Days of Future Past The Official X-Men: First Class Box Office Discussion Thread!

[Mysteryman]

I predicted 250-300 million for WW boxoffice for FC,it's more than doable.

 

[Marvel]

If they're predicting 58mill, I think it'll do about 60-65mill opening weekend.

My personal slice of the world tracking (checking out multiple local cinemas) have always given me a good gage in the past. From what I'm seeing, I'll guarantee $58 million is low. I fully expect Thor to better than Thor opening numbers even without 3D prices. First Class will surprise and run at $70 million.

 

[mclay18]

I'd say the start of November.

No. Unless it has Batman Begins or Star Trek-style legs, the home video release will likely be October.

And I pray it has those kinds of legs. Star Trek's was impressive, considering it came out between XO:W and Angels and Demons.

 

[Marvin]

Star Trek had pretty weak totals if I remember correctly.

 

[MARVEL ROCKS]

giteshpandya:
Sources telling me #XMen FRI on track for low 20s just like June2008 Hulk. Mid 50s possible for wknd.

http://***********/#!/giteshpandya

Could this end up the lowest grossing movie in the franchise?

 

[josh8]

Star Trek did very well domestically. Opened to $75 million and finished at $258 million and made for a 3+ overall multiplier (almost unheard of these days). It didn't do so well internationally, which surprised me. I didn't know that Star Trek wasn't that popular outside the US.

If XM:FC underperforms this weekend, I at least hope it has legs. I think there is a possibility this time around if the opening is low because people are not flocking and rather waiting to see what other people say. X2 had stellar reviews but was frontloaded as hell. Might not be a problem this time!

It really is sad that moviegoers flock to movies like PotC4 and The Hangover II when they're so obviously uninspired movies. At least Fast Five was well-reviewed. But I do understand because for the X-Men franchise it is very much like starting from scratch. The A-list X-team of Cyke, Storm, Jean and Wolverine took X1 to the top in 2000 (a great opening at the time) and the absence of them in XM:FC is obvious. FOX took a gamble with the more obscure cast and it might hurt because the general public (based on reading what reviewers seem to assume) is most likely thinking it's a reboot anyways!

 

[Sweet Xstacy]

Tracking was way off on this. Makes me sad.

 

[Figs]

In regards to word of mouth. I think what could truly hurt this film is the fact that it might have too much talking and not enough action for the general audience. Not to mention I can already hear people in droves *****ing about having to read subtitles.

 

[jmc]

There's like 3 scenes with subtitles, anyone who complains needs to take a long hard look at themselves in the mirror.

 

[Figs]

There's like 3 scenes with subtitles, anyone who complains needs to take a long hard look at themselves in the mirror.

Exactly, but some people will still *****. My manager at work hated Inglourious Basterds simply because so much of it was in subtitles. I have a feeling he's going to be disappointed with this X-men film, as stupid as that may be.

 

[the a1ant]

I think it will have better legs than previous films and blow up on video. Even if the box office is lower than expected, at least it's an excellent, well-reviewed film.

 

[BMM]

Haha. Agreed. Also, If First Class is the lowest grossing X-Men film, it wouldn't surprise me. I've always thought it was going to be an uphill battle, despite its potential quality.

 

[jmc]

The lack of Wolverine was always going to be a factor, like it or not he's the face of X-men. That said I think word of mouth for this will be good enough for it to make a decent return.

 

[josh8]

I guess we'll see on Monday. And I mean Monday! Not the instant Friday's numbers are released.

Tomorrow we'll get a number and we shouldn't let it drive us crazy, whether it is good or mediocre. XM:FC has similar reviews to X2, and I just checked X2's daily grosses and it actually had a slightly better Saturday versus the normal sequel drop. Star Trek also had a slight increase on Saturday. I feel that this movie is skewing a little bit of an older crowd, which is not as frontloady. It's so hard to predict!!!

 

[merbass]

Narnia 3, Scream 4 and now XFC. If the movie doesn't make loadss of money to guarantee sequel then I'd be soooooooo disappointed !

 

[josh8]

Oh and XM:FC also has moderate competition coming up, IMO. X2 had the typical huge fall after opening so big. Then it got massacred by The Matrix Reloaded (starting on a Wednesday to boot). XM:FC has a lot of June to breathe.

I think Super 8 is going to be a much smaller film and not complete in it's crossover market. And I feel GL's going to only draw in the diehards (sorry GL fans!). Cars 2 is next and that's the most child-skewing Pixar movie ever. Very popular with kids, but I don't know any adults who want to see it. Then there's Transformers. God help us all.

 

[merbass]

Will it even make $100 M ?

 

[Sweet Xstacy]

Will it even make $100 M ?

Needs legs.

 

[merbass]

I hope it at least ended up with 150 M.

 

[josh8]

Will it even make $100 M ?

XM:FC? Without a doubt. The low-end estimate for the weekend is 50ish.

 

[Sweet Xstacy]

Good movie, Good Marketing, Good Reviews- I don't know what more they could've done to get a bigger opening.

 

[BMM]

Hopefully, it will do well. Unfortunately, there is a lot of competition this summer. My question is, if First Class doesn't meet expectations, what the heck is Fox going to do next?

 

[josh8]

Good movie, Good Marketing, Good Reviews- I don't know what more they could've done to get a bigger opening.

It just needed that one big draw. Audiences are pretty fickle. Sequels (and/or prequels) without original cast members don't do well. When X1 launched, it had all the most popular X-Men in it.

And it's funny because prequels/reboots should by intuition at least do as well as the original launch if the reviews are as good. It's still X-Men, right??

I'm not sweatin' it though. It'll be fine.

 

[josh8]

Hopefully, it will do well. Unfortunately, there is a lot of competition this summer. My question is, if First Class doesn't meet expectations, what the heck is Fox going to do next?

I mentioned in my post above, but I think XM:FC has one of the lighter competition paths for a summer blockbuster. It has no proven mega-launch movie to contend with until Transformers.

 

[BMM]

We'll see. It may not be a proven franchise, but Green Lantern is another big budget, summer tentpole superhero movie.