Tomatometer predictions on this film? - Part 1

[Taarna]

Holding firm at 9%. How much money is this dumpster fire going to cost Fox?

Nova Flame on this movie!

 

[lordofthenerds]

What idiot critic is still upvoting this movie after all that's occurred? Sometimes I think people are just going against the grain (and common sense) to be attention ****es for real.

Looks like Armond White goes by the name "Scott Nash" these days.

 

[RAE072]

Holding firm at 9%. How much money is this dumpster fire going to cost Fox?

Nova Flame on this movie!

Trades are saying 60 million. Which is a lot.

Which is what I think Marvel should offer FOX to buy this property off them.

Hell, throw in the 122 million budget while they're at it.

FOX recoops costs, and they no longer lease a property they want nothing to do with.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

Holding firm at 9%. How much money is this dumpster fire going to cost Fox?

Nova Flame on this movie!

Like that's a good thing?

Not holding firm though actually. There just haven't been any more reviews. 2 more rotten reviews will drop it back to 8%.

I'm sure this is what was meant by that "sweet" RT score of 80-90%. Apparently the extra zero was a faux pas.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

Trades are saying 60 million. Which is a lot.

Which is what I think Marvel should offer FOX to buy this property off them.

Hell, throw in the 122 million budget while they're at it.

FOX recoops costs, and they no longer lease a property they want nothing to do with.

Love it. Meanwhile, Fox is still chest puffing about a sequel. I can't wait to see how much money that will cost them. The FF are already worthless. Do it Fox! Do it!

 

[Willie Lumpkin]

I think that $60 million number is light.

BoxOffice.com lists total cost at approximately $175 million, but I'm thinking worldwide box-office is going to be $120-$150 which should get Fox about $60 - $75 million which leaves Fox out $100 - $115 million before Marvel takes their cut. If Marvel gets 10% of the gross, they're taking $6 - $7.5 million which makes Fox's loss $116 - 122.5 million.

 

[Ragnaroknroll]

I think that $60 million number is light.

BoxOffice.com lists total cost at approximately $175 million, but I'm thinking worldwide box-office is going to be $120-$150 which should get Fox about $60 - $75 million which leaves Fox out $100 - $115 million before Marvel takes their cut. If Marvel gets 10% of the gross, they're taking $6 - $7.5 million which makes Fox's loss $116 - 122.5 million.

Oooooh nice. Our evil plan is working.

Just think. We did this. The fans! Otherwise this film would have swept the Oscars and made a billion dollars.

 

[lordofthenerds]

I think that $60 million number is light.

BoxOffice.com lists total cost at approximately $175 million, but I'm thinking worldwide box-office is going to be $120-$150 which should get Fox about $60 - $75 million which leaves Fox out $100 - $115 million before Marvel takes their cut. If Marvel gets 10% of the gross, they're taking $6 - $7.5 million which makes Fox's loss $116 - 122.5 million.

Yep. It's even worse than that though because FFINO will make the majority of that WW total through OS markets, and the studio collects significantly less than 50% of the box office overseas.

 

[Spiderine]

Trades are saying 60 million. Which is a lot.

Which is what I think Marvel should offer FOX to buy this property off them.

Hell, throw in the 122 million budget while they're at it.

FOX recoops costs, and they no longer lease a property they want nothing to do with.

Totally Agreed.......Disney covers the loss on this turd with a few other minor concessions basically buying the property back. FOX gets reimbursed and unloads a worthless property for them. Marvel gets to start resuscitation on FF earlier than 2020 not by making a solo film but implement the characters in other projects and getting audiences accustomed to the intro of new actors in the roles and establishing their place in the MCU.

In any case, Marvel can start making plans beyond phase three instead of wondering what FOX will do come 2022.

 

[JKKS085]

Assuming it makes 55M dom and 150M os, that's about 85 millions for Fox (30M dom which is roughly 55%, 55M os which amounts to 35%, in line with the later reports on the studios os cut from Deadline).
Now on the expense column, there is the reported production budget of 122M (that probably doesn't include the cost of the reshoots but how much they spent on that is really anyone's guess at this point), the domestic P&A costs of 53 millions according to bo.com, the foreign P&A costs (that are usually a bit higher than domestic costs but just for the sake of the argument let's say they spent another 53M os) and finally Marvel's cut which in this case should be around 20M.

That's a loss of 163M for Fox. Now I'm pretty sure there are ways to offset some of the costs especially in advertising with product placement and cross marketing stuff but also with tax breaks (they shot some of the film in Lousiana for that reason) so they likely won't be loosing that much money. However in the advertising departement even if 20th Century Fox is part of a larger media group, subsidiaries don't work for free so that 60M number seems like a best case scenario with fewer grasps in reality as time passes.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Just think. We did this. The fans!

For real!

 

[krycek]

Shame its still holding at 9%. I was hoping it would sink lower.

 

[AnneFan]

Shame its still holding at 9%. I was hoping it would sink lower.

Me too, but it's a certified stinker regardless.

 

[SSJ4_Haruhi]

I think we'll get 2 more rotten reviews guys and gals, I notice it has still yet to come out in some areas of Europe, Africa and Asia.

 

[metaphysician]

Assuming it makes 55M dom and 150M os, that's about 85 millions for Fox (30M dom which is roughly 55%, 55M os which amounts to 35%, in line with the later reports on the studios os cut from Deadline).
Now on the expense column, there is the reported production budget of 122M (that probably doesn't include the cost of the reshoots but how much they spent on that is really anyone's guess at this point), the domestic P&A costs of 53 millions according to bo.com, the foreign P&A costs (that are usually a bit higher than domestic costs but just for the sake of the argument let's say they spent another 53M os) and finally Marvel's cut which in this case should be around 20M.

That's a loss of 163M for Fox. Now I'm pretty sure there are ways to offset some of the costs especially in advertising with product placement and cross marketing stuff but also with tax breaks (they shot some of the film in Lousiana for that reason) so they likely won't be loosing that much money. However in the advertising departement even if 20th Century Fox is part of a larger media group, subsidiaries don't work for free so that 60M number seems like a best case scenario with fewer grasps in reality as time passes.

The fact that this number is so far beyond the official estimate should tell you something is wrong with your numbers. Your estimating *waaaay* too high an added cost from marketing, especially when your already assuming a big drop in revenue from overseas ( which in large part is *because* local distributers and subsidiaries handling marketing costs locally ).

 

[Tony Stark]

Assuming it makes 55M dom and 150M os, that's about 85 millions for Fox (30M dom which is roughly 55%, 55M os which amounts to 35%, in line with the later reports on the studios os cut from Deadline).
Now on the expense column, there is the reported production budget of 122M (that probably doesn't include the cost of the reshoots but how much they spent on that is really anyone's guess at this point), the domestic P&A costs of 53 millions according to bo.com, the foreign P&A costs (that are usually a bit higher than domestic costs but just for the sake of the argument let's say they spent another 53M os) and finally Marvel's cut which in this case should be around 20M.

That's a loss of 163M for Fox. Now I'm pretty sure there are ways to offset some of the costs especially in advertising with product placement and cross marketing stuff but also with tax breaks (they shot some of the film in Lousiana for that reason) so they likely won't be loosing that much money. However in the advertising departement even if 20th Century Fox is part of a larger media group, subsidiaries don't work for free so that 60M number seems like a best case scenario with fewer grasps in reality as time passes.

Here's the problem. It's not the money they gained or lost. Companies release "guidance" which tells investors how they project the companies revenues in the upcoming year. Back in December they already projected a 200M decline in year over year revenues, so their stock took a hit. The problem now is that they will even fail to meet their lowered guidance for the year, so investors will be shorting the stock.

Take a look at what's happened to their stock since August:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FOX+Interactive#{"range":"1mo","allowChartStacking":true}

There's been somewhat of a small recovery when the stock hit a 52 week low on August 6th. That's mainly from investors looking for bargain stocks that they think will recover.

Fox is in deep trouble right now, and as I maintained, someone is going to lose their job over this. It's probably going to be behind closed doors, so you'll probably see it as someone "resigning" or moving to another company.

 

[Quasar]

I saw this a couple days ago, but couldn't post it.

‘Fantastic Four’s’ flame-out: A four-point response to a teenager’s scathing review

http://www.washingtonpost.com/news/...oint-response-to-a-teenagers-scathing-review/

 

[Joe Rockhead]

Hard to believe that Zoom had a more cohesive story than Fant4stic:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/zoom_2006/

Meanwhile for good live action family superheroics, Sky High is infinitely more watchable than both:

http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/1142872-sky_high/

 

[regwec]

We're back down on 8%!!

 

[JKKS085]

The fact that this number is so far beyond the official estimate should tell you something is wrong with your numbers. Your estimating *waaaay* too high an added cost from marketing, especially when your already assuming a big drop in revenue from overseas ( which in large part is *because* local distributers and subsidiaries handling marketing costs locally ).

And local distributors and subsidiary just work for free right ?
DOFP turned a 77.38M profit for Fox factoring in HV revenues in 2014 on a 748M ww gross based on Deadline's data. How do you think things are gonna turn out for FF ? The P&A costs for DOFP were 60M dom and 70M os. My hypothesis was that they already spent less on FF (which I agree is likely) and I wasn't even factoring in the money the spent on reshoots (which again is not something that you do for free, especially when rumor is that they had to reshoot half the movie).

 

[JKKS085]

Here's the problem. It's not the money they gained or lost. Companies release "guidance" which tells investors how they project the companies revenues in the upcoming year. Back in December they already projected a 200M decline in year over year revenues, so their stock took a hit. The problem now is that they will even fail to meet their lowered guidance for the year, so investors will be shorting the stock.

Take a look at what's happened to their stock since August:

http://finance.yahoo.com/echarts?s=FOX+Interactive#{"range":"1mo","allowChartStacking":true}

There's been somewhat of a small recovery when the stock hit a 52 week low on August 6th. That's mainly from investors looking for bargain stocks that they think will recover.

Fox is in deep trouble right now, and as I maintained, someone is going to lose their job over this. It's probably going to be behind closed doors, so you'll probably see it as someone "resigning" or moving to another company.

The problem is definitely bigger than just how much money they are going to lose on this film. This has definitely been a terrible year for Fox.
But then again 2014 wasn't great for Universal and see how things turned out this year. I think they still have opportunities to turn things around next year and the year after especially with Avatar's sequel.

But I do agree that there is a handful of people who deserve to be fired for this mess (and especially now that the bts disaster that occurred is getting clearer).

 

[SuperSanchez]

Around 30-40% they'd be super lucky to get up to %60

 

[regwec]

Er...

 

[lordofthenerds]

Around 30-40% they'd be super lucky to get up to %60

Wait... are you talking about the tomatometer??

 

[SuperSanchez]

Wait... are you talking about the tomatometer??

yes