Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[kineticist]

At 523m.

 

[Storm22]

Has it opened in Japan yet?

 

[kineticist]

Has it opened in Japan yet?

Not till August 11 I think.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

I hope the movie can reach $600 million

 

[BeholdMe]

I love Famke but stop insulting Sophie it makes you seem petty.

He/she is petty and bitter as is another user whom can't let it go about the OT, there time has passed. It's ridiculous continuing to blame the failure of Apocalypse on the new mutants when they were not utilized that much but then I look at the users saying it.

Transporting them into the future... won't change the fact that these are still the "younger versions". There is really no excuse when you have the biggest female actress right now and still can't outgross the 2009 Wolverine movie in North America with 3D/years of price inflation and the goodwill from Days of Future Past and Deadpool.

Maybe you should blame it on a lackluster script and them trying to cram a big story like Apocalypse into one movie. I think they should have used another villian. It felt like the movie was missing some things and some parts were rushed. I did enjoy the movie but most of the actors were not the issue.

At 523m.

Wow that's still good not great but I'm glad the movie is steadily climbing.

 

[Tymminator]

How many more weeks is it in China before it's gone there?

 

[Sithborg]

It ends its run on Thur.

 

[kineticist]

So we're looking at probably around 540ish-550ish

 

[superweirdo87]

Movie stars, especially a single movie star, play little role in box office, aside from DiCaprio, Denzel Washington, and Scar Jo. Having J. Law does not mean much.


The audience makes a movie a hit and no amount of "star power" or marketing canalter that. In other words, the real star is the movie.

Deadline: Stories and directors, not stars, drive movie profits.

You might point out that Origins did better in the North America market with awful reviews and a story people did not love. But, interest in theatrical movies was greater at that time and social media did not immediately stave off people as much as it does now.

Also, this view of stars and attitudes towards the franchise neglects a big part of what does drive grosses: how the audience feels about the movie unfolding before them on the screen. The movie itself, not the just the pitch on paper and big names, but the story and how it's told matter. So does the audience and how it reacts.

The script, story, broad pitch, sameness, and aesthetics all shaped reaction to X-Men Apocalypse and those things matter for performance.

Seeing no room for growth on the basis of diminished star power fails to recognize that audiences are drawn to good stories. The way stories are told can also impact the audience.

 

[Snikt]

Is it a typo on Boxoffice.com?

Says WW total is $568M

 

[Superhero 101]

Seems like a typo

 

[jaymes_e06]

Maybe 528 instead?

 

[RLAAMJR.]

So sad of the total gross.

 

[Micromind]

Maybe 528 instead?

It's 524 mil. (approximately.)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=x-men2016.htm

 

[DavidHaller]

So sad of the total gross.

there are worse things in this world to be sad about than a bad comic book movie making more than twice its budget at the global boxoffice with brutal competition!

It is the 2nd most successful X-Men team movie in 16 years after "Days of Future Past" and the 7th most successful movie this year so far.

how I see it! BAM!

$523,811,663 WORLDWIDE!

 

[psylockolussus]

I hope the movie can reach $600 million

It won't.

 

[psylockolussus]

They will be in their mid 20s by the time the next one is filmed. They are less young and now in their prime. It will go over better than bringing back a cast in their 50s, especially sans Jackman. This is a new opportunity to do something new. Repeating yourself again and again leads to diminishing results, as we saw last month.

Its already been established that these are the younger version and we already saw the older Jean, Cyclops and Storm in the new future.

Then I don't see what good it would do by ignoring the new future shown in DOFP, just because to do more of with these new cast members just because they are "likable" especially when their likability that doesn't even translate to $$$. And I don't care if Storm, Cyclops and Jean are in their 50s... another reason why I want the OT cast and the films to be in the present, is so they can do more stuff with Rogue, iceman, Colossus, Kitty then eventually introduce members when its time for Famke, Halle, James to retire their role.

 

[BeholdMe]

there are worse things in this world to be sad about than a bad comic book movie making more than twice its budget at the global boxoffice with brutal competition!

It is the 2nd most successful X-Men team movie in 16 years after "Days of Future Past" and the 7th most successful movie this year so far.

how I see it! BAM!

$523,811,663 WORLDWIDE!

So true some are overly dramatic

 

[JEM]

So we're looking at probably around 540ish-550ish

Yeah, if XA make 530 before Japan, 540 is possible.

 

[YoungBlood]

there are worse things in this world to be sad about than a bad comic book movie making more than twice its budget at the global boxoffice with brutal competition!

It is the 2nd most successful X-Men team movie in 16 years after "Days of Future Past" and the 7th most successful movie this year so far.

how I see it! BAM!

$523,811,663 WORLDWIDE!

For once, I actually agree.

 

[Zarex]

You can't look at revenue alone in determining whether a film is a success or not. If that were the case ASM2 and BvS were smash hits that didn't lead to major shake ups in both franchises.

Revenue (Using BO Mojo #s):

China = $112M x 25% = $28M
Foreign = $261M x 40% = $104.4M
US = $151M x 50% = $ 75.5M

To date, FOX's total BO share is approximately $208M. The reported budget is $178M and a frequently used estimate for marketing costs for tentpole summer features is 1/2 the budget. Using these numbers, FOX right now is about $59M in the hole.

There's a good chance FOX will break even after the film ends its run and revenue is generated from streaming, Blu-Ray, DVD and TV rights. But there is a reason the 90s era "X-Men in Space" film promoted by Kinberg hasn't been announced by the studio.

 

[BeholdMe]

You can't look at revenue alone in determining whether a film is a success or not. If that were the case ASM2 and BvS were smash hits that didn't lead to major shake ups in both franchises.

Revenue (Using BO Mojo #s):

China = $112M x 25% = $28M
Foreign = $261M x 40% = $104.4M
US = $151M x 50% = $ 75.5M

To date, FOX's total BO share is approximately $208M. The reported budget is $178M and a frequently used estimate for marketing costs for tentpole summer features is 1/2 the budget. Using these numbers, FOX right now is about $59M in the hole.

There's a good chance FOX will break even after the film ends its run and revenue is generated from streaming, Blu-Ray, DVD and TV rights. But there is a reason the 90s era "X-Men in Space" film promoted by Kinberg hasn't been announced by the studio.

Where was it stated the next film would be in space, I missed something. Though I would love the idea I don't recall ever seeing that and I don't even think that's the direction they are headed.

 

[Zarex]

Where was it stated the next film would be in space, I missed something. Though I would love the idea I don't recall ever seeing that and I don't even think that's the direction they are headed.

http://www.fandango.com/movie-news/the-next-x-men-movie-may-take-place-in-outer-space-750859

 

[superweirdo87]

You can't look at revenue alone in determining whether a film is a success or not. If that were the case ASM2 and BvS were smash hits that didn't lead to major shake ups in both franchises.

Revenue (Using BO Mojo #s):

China = $112M x 25% = $28M
Foreign = $261M x 40% = $104.4M
US = $151M x 50% = $ 75.5M

To date, FOX's total BO share is approximately $208M. The reported budget is $178M and a frequently used estimate for marketing costs for tentpole summer features is 1/2 the budget. Using these numbers, FOX right now is about $59M in the hole.

There's a good chance FOX will break even after the film ends its run and revenue is generated from streaming, Blu-Ray, DVD and TV rights. But there is a reason the 90s era "X-Men in Space" film promoted by Kinberg hasn't been announced by the studio.

Some say that the take in domestic theaters is more like 55% or 50-55%.

But, there are problems in using theatrical revenues against budget and marketing. Many movies don't make a profit on theatrical revenues. They get to the black with ancillary revenues. A few major hits do, but a lot of movies get there by way of ancillary.

http://deadline.com/2015/11/spectre-profit-box-office-skyfall-james-bond-franchise-1201615942/

The expectation even per non-Sony film finance execs is that Spectre will be one of the few films to breakeven in theatrical.

Also, if you dig through Deadline's write-ups of profits, a lot of the tentpoles have marketing budgets over 50% of their production budget.

I think the marketing cost 135M for this movie, maybe as high as 145. Days of Future Past was 130M and this movie had a super bowl ad and they got 5M.

I don't think it makes a profit, ultimately.

 

[superweirdo87]

178 production (reported)
135 marketing (reported and super bowl ad)
60 residuals off the tops and overhead (Deadline's analysis of DOFP)
40 home entertainment costs (The Martian and Ant-Man had similar costs.)
70 participations (DOFP had 100, this grossed less, Jackman only had a cameo and the old cast was not in it.)

483 in costs at least, and that's if 178 is not fudged. Several news outlets reported higher in the run-up to release. 178 maybe after tax credits, but it might also involve spin.

The movie will make ~410M after all revenues come in.

59 foreign tv
90 home entertainment (global)
85 domestic theaters
100 foreign theaters besides china
29 china
50 domestic tv/svod/vod/ppv
413 all revenues