Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Zarex]

Well technically deadpool counts as making an X-Men movie so they could live off nothing but deadpool movies if they felt like it.

Wade is on a separate contract.

http://spinoff.comicbookresources.c...-is-deadpool-part-of-foxs-x-men-movie-rights/

 

[GuestStar2004]

Wade is on a separate contract.

http://spinoff.comicbookresources.c...-is-deadpool-part-of-foxs-x-men-movie-rights/

Thats odd since deadpool must have been part of the same deal, otherwise why were they sitting on the character for so long

 

[Sithborg]

With how the rights have been oddly chopped up, it isn't too surprising that Deadpool wasn't with the initial X-men/Mutant deal.

However, with how they are combining the two, it is a bit on the academic side.

 

[superweirdo87]

And yeah, it is a brutal loss. The movie costs like 550M with everything factored in.

235 production
145 marketing
70 participations
60 residuals/interest/overhead
40 home entertainment

550 aggregate costs.

525 WW works out to 420-440 in revenue.
100 home entertainment
45 ppv/vod/tv domestic
59 foreign tv
75 domestic rental (theatrical revenues)
109 foreign (non-china) rental
23 china rental
5-10 merchandising tie-ins
416-421.

That is a ~130-134 million dollar loss.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

Thats odd since deadpool must have been part of the same deal, otherwise why were they sitting on the character for so long

I read the article they explained very well. Even though Deadpool is not part of the x-men deal. He is part of the Fox X-Men Universe which is great cause Fox can use him in another x-men movie.

The first movie Fox ever was able to use him was X-Men Origins: Wolverine.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

And yeah, it is a brutal loss. The movie costs like 550M with everything factored in.

235 production
145 marketing
70 participations
60 residuals/interest/overhead
40 home entertainment

550 aggregate costs.

525 WW works out to 420-440 in revenue.
100 home entertainment
45 ppv/vod/tv domestic
59 foreign tv
75 domestic rental (theatrical revenues)
117 foreign (non-china) rental
23 china rental
5-10 merchandising tie-ins
434-439.

That is a 116 million dollar loss.

Your math are not from this world and these numbers are completely wrong.

 

[GuestStar2004]

So what would that actually mean for X-Men? if say fox just made deadpool movies? would they lose X-Men but keep deadpool? does seem abit odd if deadpool was part of the deal so aslong as you make X-Men they can keep deadpool but if they stop making X-Men... well yeah

 

[Zarex]

Thats odd since deadpool must have been part of the same deal, otherwise why were they sitting on the character for so long

It could be due to the terms of the deal. The X-Men licensing agreement is very favorable to FOX - I've read that Marvel's share may be only 1% of the gross. The Deadpool deal, which came about over a decade later, is much better for Marvel.

Even after all the maneuvering, Marvel retained a hefty royalty of 5 percent of the "first dollar" revenue Fox generated from a Deadpool film, according to a person with knowledge of the deal. That gives Disney a 5 percent slice off the top of revenue that Fox receives from ticket or DVD sales, and from other income.

https://www.thestreet.com/story/134...dpool-is-paying-dividends-for-disney-too.html

It seems likely that FOX would have to pay the higher % if Pool was featured in an X-Men or X-Force film, which could make the studio reluctant to do so. That may have changed with the great success of the recent solo feature.

 

[superweirdo87]

Tom Rothman held up Deadpool. Fox also might have been nervous about the R-rating.

But given they are on separate licenses, Deadpool movies may not cover them on the X-Men license. There are also questions like X-force and New Mutants. Where would X-force characters team players come from?

I don't know that recast #3 is a compelling case to GA. What about this iteration makes it different or exciting or worth checking out?

 

[superweirdo87]

As far as I understand, they have to make X-Men movies to keep the rights. Since Deadpool is on a separate deal, Deadpool movies may not work. So, it is possible that they will lose the rights without making movies.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Yeah but how long have they owned deadpool? about as long as X-Men, i assume they didn't get deadpool especially for Origins so the X-Men movies must have been keeping the deadpool rights at FOX even though that wouldn't work the same way if deadpool is being made? so would they lose X-Men and still keep deadpool?

Its probably all in some agreement but its a weird one.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

As far as I understand, they have to make X-Men movies to keep the rights. Since Deadpool is on a separate deal, Deadpool movies may not work. So, it is possible that they will lose the rights without making movies.

Guys, relax

Wolverine is part of the deal and he is getting a movie next year.

I'm sure Fox will announce very soon the next X-Men movie. Singer planted the possibility of another movie.

They now finally have a x-men team. Is like this movie set the universe to finally start to use the x-men as heroes of Earth.

Without giving into spoilers just watch the last scene of the movie and you'll understand.

X-men are here for stay. I'm sure that the next movie will be soon.

Maybe May of 2019, so they have like 2 years of development.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Its probably all in some agreement but its a weird one.

Agree. Just read it and can't really understand it that much.
Fox got Deadpool rights in 2005, right? So, the license is bigger than 7 years?

or ..

if Deadpool (Wade) was in XMOW that rebooted the time of the license for the rights to reverts?

I don't know ..

 

[BeholdMe]

And yeah, it is a brutal loss. The movie costs like 550M with everything factored in.

235 production
145 marketing
70 participations
60 residuals/interest/overhead
40 home entertainment

550 aggregate costs.

525 WW works out to 420-440 in revenue.
100 home entertainment
45 ppv/vod/tv domestic
59 foreign tv
75 domestic rental (theatrical revenues)
109 foreign (non-china) rental
23 china rental
5-10 merchandising tie-ins
416-421.

That is a ~130-134 million dollar loss.

I'm assuming these are all guesses unless you are working for them. Good numbers though I'm hoping it at least makes 700 million though

 

[superweirdo87]

Fox got the Deadpool rights in 2005, it seems from the article linked to above.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Fox got the Deadpool rights in 2005, it seems from the article linked to above.

Yeah. But did XMOW had any effect on those rights? This is the interesting part.

 

[superweirdo87]

Yeah, I am guessing based on what I saw at Deadline for various movies.

 

[Zarex]

Yeah. But did XMOW had any effect on those rights? This is the interesting part.

I think it did. Back in 2013 there was a rumor on the site that can't be named that the Deadpool rights were at risk of reversion in a few years. If XMO:W restarted the reversion period, that would fit with the 7 year cycles of both the FF and X-Men contracts.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

One key thing is participation or gross players may have been cheaper on XM:A than XMoFP. The old cast probably got back-end deals. New cast members wouldn't have gotten as much on this.

There are movies that make no money in theaters, but wind up with a profit over 100M. If you look at Deadline's models, some movies fall short in theaters, but come in the black when TV and home entertainment are factored in.

X-Men: Days of Future Past made ~77M for Fox, but talent got 100M.

Getting 700M is a problem on a higher budget, but arguably, adjusting budgets and expectations might be the right lesson.

This is a beautifully fair assessment. Good point on the "points". And yep, they aren't going to cancel the Apocalypse, so to speak. There will be more X-Men movies. But what they do going forward, what the budget is, will be adjusted, same with expectations.

 

[X-Maniac]

This is a beautifully fair assessment. Good point on the "points". And yep, they aren't going to cancel the Apocalypse, so to speak. There will be more X-Men movies. But what they do going forward, what the budget is, will be adjusted, same with expectations.

Well, the beauty of it is that:

1) XM:A wraps up the First Class trilogy so even if it underperforms, nothing has really been left dangling

2) They had already announced a number of other X-Men-related spin-off projects such as X-Force, New Mutants, Gambit, Deadpool 2, etc etc, so there are chances to do 'other stuff' apart from the main series.

3) Deadpool has shown that a lower budget project can and does work, and can do amazingly well, so if they lower budget etc, they do have a reference point

It's definitely not all doom and gloom - and if they stop these non-entity cool powers FX mutants and give us some people with personalities, it will get even better...

Far too much emphasis goes on box office and critics' reviews these days, just because we are all online and able to find all this stuff out. Things were so much simpler when people just went and enjoyed a movie, as in the golden days of things like Jaws, Grease, etc. Fans get far too involved in things that only those running the studio should be concerned about.

 

[SoNicRaDiATioN]

Far too much emphasis goes on box office and critics' reviews these days, just because we are all online and able to find all this stuff out. Things were so much simpler when people just went and enjoyed a movie, as in the golden days of things like Jaws, Grease, etc. Fans get far too involved in things that only those running the studio should be concerned about.

You don't even have to go back that far. It's the age we live in, good or bad, you can't put the genie back in the bottle. When RT first came on the scene I was shocked at some of the reviews for films I loved as a kid. I just recently saw the reviews for the Goonies, which many people consider a classic kids film. It's at 69% on RT. Not bad by any means, but hardly "classic". I love that we get a global perspective for these films, but the purity of joy that came with the insulation of not knowing every little critique is lost.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

Idk if this has been posted. http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ce-a-strong-103m-overseas-debut/#752de4af434e

Not that I can tell, great article. thanks

 

[jaymes_e06]

And yeah, it is a brutal loss. The movie costs like 550M with everything factored in.

235 production
145 marketing
70 participations
60 residuals/interest/overhead
40 home entertainment

550 aggregate costs.

525 WW works out to 420-440 in revenue.
100 home entertainment
45 ppv/vod/tv domestic
59 foreign tv
75 domestic rental (theatrical revenues)
109 foreign (non-china) rental
23 china rental
5-10 merchandising tie-ins
416-421.

That is a ~130-134 million dollar loss.

What the actual ****... if that were true then DOFP was in the negative to...

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

You don't even have to go back that far. It's the age we live in, good or bad, you can't put the genie back in the bottle. When RT first came on the scene I was shocked at some of the reviews for films I loved as a kid. I just recently saw the reviews for the Goonies, which many people consider a classic kids film. It's at 69% on RT. Not bad by any means, but hardly "classic". I love that we get a global perspective for these films, but the purity of joy that came with the insulation of not knowing every little critique is lost.

I don't know, I was devastated when Ebert gave Tombstone a thumbs down. Its nice that we get the opinions of more than a handful of famous critics and the local newspaper reviewers.

 

[Stryfer]

Aren't you exaggerating? X-Men 3 has cost 210 million and had 459 million in income and was good for FOX, there continued.