Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 4

[DavidHaller]

FOX would defo need to be smart with new mutants, no trial and error crap, have a potential plan or idea and know where you are going or how it all might fit together.

or maybe just stop this whole shared universe crap or at least tell a small scale story without huge universe implications for the entire X-Men franchise...

a small group of Xavier's kids experience an adventure on campus.

 

[JEM]

Breakfast Club with horror elements

 

[GuestStar2004]

or at least tell a small scale story without huge universe implications for the entire X-Men franchise...

That is kinda what i am expecting anyway, not every movie has to be huge.

 

[Matt]

So what is the best lesson to be learned from Apocalypse's box office? Is it that an X-Men movie that does not (prominently) feature Hugh Jackman (or perhaps just the character Wolverine) is going to underperform? Is it that audiences want the franchise to embrace the more fantastical elements of superhero movies? Is it that between this and BvS, audiences are becoming burnt out on superheroes? Maybe a combination?

 

[Kanon]

So what is the best lesson to be learned from Apocalypse's box office? Is it that an X-Men movie that does not (prominently) feature Hugh Jackman (or perhaps just the character Wolverine) is going to underperform?

I mantain that people don't like it when it contradicts or denies the original trilogy storyline. It might be Wolverine, but I think the reason people didn't go for FC and Apocalypse is that they don't care for the reboot continuity. The Wolverine has the weakest OW of the franchise and the biggest (Deadpool) is Wolverine-less, so I would say that Wolverine is not a guaranteed draw, and the lack of Logan is not a underperforming sentence.

 

[Matt]

I mantain that people don't like it when it contradicts or denies the original trilogy storyline. It might be Wolverine, but I think the reason people didn't go for FC and Apocalypse is that they don't care for the reboot continuity. The Wolverine has the weakest OW of the franchise and the biggest (Deadpool) is Wolverine-less, so I would say that Wolverine is not a guaranteed draw, and the lack of Logan is not a underperforming sentence.

Perhaps. Although The Wolverine came at the tail end of a very bad run for the franchise that may have turned off audiences and is the direct sequel to (arguably) the worst film of the series.

At any rate, I think you may overestimate how heavily invested audiences are in the original continuity.

I think if anything, it is superhero fatigue. Civil War succeeded because Marvel has yet to release a truly bad movie (Dark World is their worst effort and it is average, not horrid) and continues to re-invent itself with each release (Antman was a heist movie, Winter Soldier was a political thriller, Civil War is a vs movie, etc). No two movies are the same or even the same genre (well, they are all superhero movies but each are putting a unique mash-up twist on the genre). I think that slows fatigue. Same with Deadpool, which was a superhero movie mixed with parody of the genre. In fact, I'd argue that the overwhelming audience reaction to Deadpool may be indicative of fatigue as the audience clearly had a desire for something that pokes fun at the tired conventions of the genre. The telltale sign of overexposure is parody, after all.

 

[Sithborg]

Even then, I think the MCU is showing signs of fatigue.

 

[BeholdMe]

Is an extra year that much of an issue? It's really not a big deal in the least. Thor 2 was a dud critically. They put it on the back burner and took their time to develop an enticing part three four years later.

The next couple of films need detailed planning. I honestly think we need another trilogy. The last thing you want is for Singer or McAvoy to get burnt out and take their names off the property as producer and star. Obviously they need to be doing other films in between. TDKR also had a four year gap and it worked for the story they were telling.

My map:

Gambit (late 2017): 70-80 million. Introduce Sinister and the Morlocks. X-Men cameo or two.

Deadpool 2 (March 2018): 100-120 million

New Mutants (late 2019): 80-90 million

X-Men 7 (2020): 180 million

If they scrap New Mutants then I guess X-Men 7 can go 2019 potentially. Late 2019.

I'm not seeing the Gambit movie happening though it still can but I'm getting a bad feeling about the movie. I'm not saying it's an issue in itself waiting 4 years just that I don't think that much time is needed to make a great movie with s great script. Yes I don't want them to rush the next movie either. It just seems like some people don't care how long the wait is since we have other movies in between but me personally I just didn't want to wait like 4-5 years just to see Storm,Nightcrawler and Jean again I mean if it's worth it then it's all good in which I won't know. I see what your saying though but I wouldn't mind if Singer isn't attached to it, I truly hope they work on a vision for the next movie and not rush into it.

The "everything must be grounded" people may disagree but I'd love it if they brought in the outer space angle and left Magneto out of the story completely.

I totally agree with this here.

 

[Erzengel]

But, CW will still be the #1 movie until probably Finding Dory, Fantastic Beasts or Rogue One?

And I'm not saying that to say MCU is untouchable but what other movies are coming out this summer that everyone is dying to see? If there's fatigue for the MCU, shouldn't anyone of these movies break out?

TMNT2 - Already done. Making less than the original.
Warcraft - Bad reviews. Probably won't do well.
Independence Day Resurgence - I don't see this being this year's Jurassic World. BUT I didn't see Jurassic World doing as well as it did.
Ghostbusters - Already negative buzz
Star Trek Beyond - Trek movies don't exactly do more than $500
Jason Bourne - Bourne movies don't exactly do more than $500
Suicide Squad - Another comic book movie

I don't see which one of these titles is suppose to be the pallet cleanser.

 

[Alison Blaire]

Do you want a big box office?Do you want a gift for the fans?Ok Fox:

 

[Sithborg]

Warcraft has international numbers. It sounds like it could be massive in China.

I maintain that superhero fatigue means that superhero movies won't be the biggest movies of the year. IDR, Dory, and Fantastic Beasts absolutely have the potential for beating CW.

 

[Sithborg]

Do you want a big box office?Do you want a gift for the fans?Ok Fox:

Because tacking on $50 mil for salaries is what the series needs at the moment.

 

[Matt]

Even then, I think the MCU is showing signs of fatigue.

I think the telltale sign will be Infinity War. I think Marvel made a huge mistake in breaking it up into two movies, especially since a lot of viewers felt dissatisfied with Age of Ultron. They are daring the audience to get fatigued. Look what happened with Mockingjay. The two are the lowest performing films of the franchise by a significant margin (about 100 million less than the others, domestically...part two is about 200 million less than the first two, WW). I think two-parter movies stretches the patience of the audience. If Marvel can survive that, they may have a few good years left. If they cannot, I think it is a sign that the superhero genre has peaked and is in a down period.

It makes sense if it did peak. Avengers is hard to top. It is the culmination of a shared universe, the first time seeing a ton of heroes on screen together. The action, the spectacle, it is all amazing. There is no real way to top that. The audience does not want to see the same product (or a lesser one) over and over, after seeing something so grand. I think Age of Ultron being a rehash really drove the point home that Avengers is as good as it gets for now. We may be in a down period until something comes along that finds a real way to top what The Avengers did and move the genre forward.

If Infinity War does disappoint (and even if it doesn't)...I think it is time for Marvel to stop universe building and go smaller. Focus on Spider-Man, let him be the new face of the MCU. Quit trying to connect everything and build to a bigger movie at the expense of the current ones. Instead, focus on your smaller scale/street level heroes and the ones who are able to be isolated from the rest in terms of narrative (Dr. Strange, GOTG, etc). Then wait a few years to consider building up to another event movie. In other words, the best way to overcome fatigue is to give audiences a break until they become hungry for it again.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Do you want a big box office?Do you want a gift for the fans?Ok Fox:

Yikes 2014, how out of date

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

I maintain that superhero fatigue means that superhero movies won't be the biggest movies of the year. IDR, Dory, and Fantastic Beasts absolutely have the potential for beating CW.

That's like saying a sports team is in a slump if they don't win the championship.

 

[Sithborg]

It will still open big (not Avengers big, but still big). But CW has had a very consistent run of over 50% drops during its run, when a movie that is supposedly as good as it is, should have better legs. I think MCU is plateauing into a period of "see it opening weekend only" crowd. With as many superhero movies, what is the point of going back.

 

[Matt]

But, CW will still be the #1 movie until probably Finding Dory, Fantastic Beasts or Rogue One?

And I'm not saying that to say MCU is untouchable but what other movies are coming out this summer that everyone is dying to see? If there's fatigue for the MCU, shouldn't anyone of these movies break out?

TMNT2 - Already done. Making less than the original.
Warcraft - Bad reviews. Probably won't do well.
Independence Day Resurgence - I don't see this being this year's Jurassic World. BUT I didn't see Jurassic World doing as well as it did.
Ghostbusters - Already negative buzz
Star Trek Beyond - Trek movies don't exactly do more than $500
Jason Bourne - Bourne movies don't exactly do more than $500
Suicide Squad - Another comic book movie

I don't see which one of these titles is suppose to be the pallet cleanser.

I think we are reaching the point where audiences are just generally worn out with the sci-fi/fantasy/big spectacle blockbuster. We've reached the point where the next "huge" movie is released every week. In addition, we have other options. The quality of TV has increased dramatically in the past 10-20 years. The audience can get that kind of spectacle on a weekly basis for free. Even audiences who desire superheroes can get that on TV now. Sci-fi, horror, fantasy, it is all available on TV. Why pay theater prices for it? Factor in piracy, digital distribution, and rising theater costs...it doesn't paint a pretty picture.

It is simply a matter of supply and demand, I think. The supply has grown so large and there are so many options that demand has waned a bit.

 

[Alison Blaire]

Yikes 2014, how out of date

2018,would be wonderful.

 

[Zarex]

Even then, I think the MCU is showing signs of fatigue.

The BO takes may be at a plateau, but fatigue? I'm not seeing it in an environment in which Ant-Man is almost assured to beat X-Men at the North American BO. Who could have seen that coming?

Strange looks great, Spidey and Panther have crazy momentum coming off of their star turns in CW, the Thor-Hulk team up should be a big improvement over TDW and it appears as though they are poised to sign an Academy Award Winner for Captain Marvel. And they still have the Tony Stark-Rocket Raccoon pairing to look forward to.

We should probably table the fatigue talks until after the Infinity War films.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Love the MCU bashing on here

 

[Kanon]

Perhaps. Although The Wolverine came at the tail end of a very bad run for the franchise that may have turned off audiences and is the direct sequel to (arguably) the worst film of the series.

At any rate, I think you may overestimate how heavily invested audiences are in the original continuity.

Yeap, The Wolverine is a weird case, I'm not sure how to analyze how X3, Origins, FC, The Wolverine and DoFP all affected each other, but if Wolverine, at least, is not a box office saviour, maybe is not a requirement either.

But I firmly believe that GA loves the OT, or at the very least they are really put off by not being able to make heads or tails of continuity (specially with Mystique)

I think if anything, it is superhero fatigue. Civil War succeeded because Marvel has yet to really a truly bad movie (Dark World is their worst effort and it is average, not horrid) and continues to re-invent itself with each release (Antman was a heist movie, Winter Soldier was a political thriller, Civil War is a vs movie, etc). No two movies are the same or even the same genre (well, they are all superhero movies but each are putting a unique mash-up twist on the genre). I think that slows fatigue. Same with Deadpool, which was a superhero movie mixed with parody of the genre. In fact, I'd argue that the overwhelming audience reaction to Deadpool may be indicative of fatigue as the audience clearly had a desire for something that pokes fun at the tired conventions of the genre. The telltale sign of overexposure is parody, after all.

I don't think it's really fatigue as people getting bored or growing tired of superhero movies, as monetary fatigue: each year they have to pay for more and more superhero movies and all kind of fantasy movies as well, and there is a limit to how much money can be made overall in the box office. But I don't think people are really that tired of superhero movies: BvS might be a dud, but the OW numbers were good, people wanted to see it, and CW had a strong OW, with not so great but still respectable legs , and might end up as the 3rd or 4th DOM Marvel movie ever. All of that in 2 months with 2 pretty similar (in theme) movies.

 

[Erzengel]

Warcraft has international numbers. It sounds like it could be massive in China.

I maintain that superhero fatigue means that superhero movies won't be the biggest movies of the year. IDR, Dory, and Fantastic Beasts absolutely have the potential for beating CW.

It's not like CBMs are always the biggest movies of the year.

WW
2015 - The Force Awakens
2014 - Jurassic World
2013 - Frozen
2012 - Avengers
2011 - Harry Potter
2010 - Toy Story 3
2009 - Avatar
2008 - The Dark Knight

 

[Erzengel]

I think we are reaching the point where audiences are just generally worn out with the sci-fi/fantasy/big spectacle blockbuster. We've reached the point where the next "huge" movie is released every week. In addition, we have other options. The quality of TV has increased dramatically in the past 10-20 years. The audience can get that kind of spectacle on a weekly basis for free. Even audiences who desire superheroes can get that on TV now. Sci-fi, horror, fantasy, it is all available on TV. Why pay theater prices for it? Factor in piracy, digital distribution, and rising theater costs...it doesn't paint a pretty picture.

It is simply a matter of supply and demand, I think. The supply has grown so large and there are so many options that demand has waned a bit.

Blockbusters have been like that for years now. It's rare that a movie makes it past 2 weeks, #1 at the box office.

And I agree that it's because that TV has gotten better, and that it doesn't take a year for a movie to go from theater to home viewing. Batman v. Superman came out in March and it will be on downloadable this month. That's a little over 3 months.

 

[Angryfantasyfan]

The BO takes may be at a plateau, but fatigue? I'm not seeing it in an environment in which Ant-Man is almost assured to beat X-Men at the North American BO. Who could have seen that coming?

Right, I think genre fatigue better describes what happened to network game shows. We went from each network having a primetime game show and Who Wants to be a Millionaire airing multiple nights a week back to Wheel of Fortune and Jeopardy being the only game shows anywhere near primetime.

 

[chamber-music]

But, CW will still be the #1 movie until probably Finding Dory, Fantastic Beasts or Rogue One?

And I'm not saying that to say MCU is untouchable but what other movies are coming out this summer that everyone is dying to see? If there's fatigue for the MCU, shouldn't anyone of these movies break out?

TMNT2 - Already done. Making less than the original.
Warcraft - Bad reviews. Probably won't do well.
Independence Day Resurgence - I don't see this being this year's Jurassic World. BUT I didn't see Jurassic World doing as well as it did.
Ghostbusters - Already negative buzz
Star Trek Beyond - Trek movies don't exactly do more than $500
Jason Bourne - Bourne movies don't exactly do more than $500
Suicide Squad - Another comic book movie

I don't see which one of these titles is suppose to be the pallet cleanser.

Warcraft is looking like it might do big business in China

http://deadline.com/2016/06/warcraf...anda-furious-7-box-office-preview-1201767728/