Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[X-Maniac]

Budget will go on the actors before it goes on the effects, they won't for example throw magneto out to save them budget for effects, it would more likely the otherway around.

Yes, I agree.

I'm just saying that if they decided to give Magneto a rest (he deserves one) and if J-Law decides not to come back (probably because the salary isn't enough), then that would also cut production costs.

If they want to use Magneto again, a Genosha/House of M story would be best for that...

 

[Mysteryman]

I saw the movie for the third time last night bringing two friends with me who haven't seeing the movie yet.

But my point is that I saw the movie with 3 different audiences and all 3 cheered a lot in the theater, on the sad scenes people were sad, on the happy funny scenes people were laughing, on the action scenes people were excited. Seriously I don't know how is possible not to like this movie. I think only haters have a problem with this movie.

or they just didn't like it even though they expected to.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

or they just didn't like it even though they expected to.

I think is just pure hate. This movie is awesome but if one don't like, there's no reason to go online to spread hateful words.

Haters of x-men series want they to fail, so they focus on the bad to try to make the series end.

 

[marvelrobbins]

I think is just pure hate. This movie is awesome but if one don't like, there's no reason to go online to spread hateful words.

Haters of x-men series want they to fail, so they focus on the bad to try to make the series end.

you hit on the head.

some reviews which really don't care if Fox is making X-men complained about X-Men not having fun like the avengers.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I seriously question how much of an increase they were betting on. They did not blink from Alice. And when June filled up.

They couldn't exactly move it. The problem with rushing it out. They feel like they have an established brand. But of course they don't have a Batman or the MCU.

Again, you don't spend more money to make less money, unless we are talking about something like Star Wars. Where you are still clearing 500m with every movie. And in this case it wouldn't simply be less money. They wouldn't be looking at any profit before home media. Which means we are talking about a profit under 100m.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I think is just pure hate. This movie is awesome but if one don't like, there's no reason to go online to spread hateful words.

Haters of x-men series want they to fail, so they focus on the bad to try to make the series end.

God, the conspiracies are so bad they are good.

 

[ImSGirl95]

They couldn't exactly move it. The problem with rushing it out. They feel like they have an established brand. But of course they don't have a Batman or the MCU.

Again, you don't spend more money to make less money, unless we are talking about something like Star Wars. Where you are still clearing 500m with every movie. And in this case it wouldn't simply be less money. They wouldn't be looking at any profit before home media. Which means we are talking about a profit under 100m.

Yeah, this!
How much less of 748 mil is good enough for them? Considering that now the budget is 34 million higher. And I won't be surprised that the marketing cost is way higher also.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah, this!
How much less of 748 mil is good enough for them? Considering that now the budget is 34 million higher. And I won't be surprised that the marketing cost is way higher also.

I am curious about the marketing number. If it is low, then they might do fine here. But I don't think it is. They spent like 7m in TV ads for one week two weeks ago.

 

[ImSGirl95]

I am curious about the marketing number. If it is low, then they might do fine here. But I don't think it is. They spent like 7m in TV ads for one week two weeks ago.

No chance of it being low.
Hearing from UK users on here that it was promoted there big time.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Tbh since fox let Apocalypse sit in the same release date as Alice 2 aswell as splitting the release dates between weeks and releasing it early to critics as if they were over confident it was gonna get raved... they certainly haven't acted cautious or even desperate.

Basically if they lose money then yeah thats an issue, if they make enough to cover costs then they will be disappointed but they won't cry about it.

Sadly the films got alot pushing against it with reviews, oddly set up release dates and added competition while DOFP actually had the advantage in that respect, infact i was watching a video online with john campea who said he believed civil war didn't even make as much as it could have and thats because of BVS being a disappointment as the casual audience don't care that its DC or marvel they just care that they are both comic book movies and if they don't enjoy one VS movie then they are less excited to see another

 

[superweirdo87]

They couldn't exactly move it. The problem with rushing it out. They feel like they have an established brand. But of course they don't have a Batman or the MCU.

Again, you don't spend more money to make less money, unless we are talking about something like Star Wars. Where you are still clearing 500m with every movie. And in this case it wouldn't simply be less money. They wouldn't be looking at any profit before home media. Which means we are talking about a profit under 100m.

One key thing is participation or gross players may have been cheaper on XM:A than XMoFP. The old cast probably got back-end deals. New cast members wouldn't have gotten as much on this.

There are movies that make no money in theaters, but wind up with a profit over 100M. If you look at Deadline's models, some movies fall short in theaters, but come in the black when TV and home entertainment are factored in.

X-Men: Days of Future Past made ~77M for Fox, but talent got 100M.

Getting 700M is a problem on a higher budget, but arguably, adjusting budgets and expectations might be the right lesson.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

Tbh since fox let Apocalypse sit in the same release date as Alice 2 aswell as splitting the release dates between weeks and releasing it early to critics as if they were over confident it was gonna get raved... they certainly haven't acted cautious or even desperate.

Basically if they lose money then yeah thats an issue, if they make enough to cover costs then they will be disappointed but they won't cry about it.

Sadly the films got alot pushing against it with reviews, oddly set up release dates and added competition while DOFP actually had the advantage in that respect, infact i was watching a video online with john campea who said he believed civil war didn't even make as much as it could have and thats because of BVS being a disappointment as the casual audience don't care that its DC or marvel they just care that they are both comic book movies and if they don't enjoy one VS movie then they are less excited to see another

Somehow I think Alice and X-men have very different crowds. People who loves X-Men is not the type of people who would watch Alice and vice versa.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Somehow I think Alice and X-men have very different crowds. People who loves X-Men is not the type of people who would watch Alice and vice versa.

Depends, whose the crowd thats different? The first did crack a billion

 

[superweirdo87]

Yeah, this!
How much less of 748 mil is good enough for them? Considering that now the budget is 34 million higher. And I won't be surprised that the marketing cost is way higher also.

Was the budget 34 million higher? A lot of outlets reported that Days of Future Past went over budget. It cost like 220-225 million.

So, like 10-15M more.

But, they might do a little more on merchandising/tie-ins and participations could be cheaper since the new cast members likely do not have the leverage of the original cast when it comes to say back-end deals.

 

[superweirdo87]

One thing you all are focused on is profits off this movie. The picture may be less bad considering Deadpool did so well. Let's say this does 525 WW.

525 + 760 = 1.285 billion. Not too bad for the portfolio.

 

[ImSGirl95]

Was the budget 34 million higher? A lot of outlets reported that Days of Future Past went over budget. It cost like 220-225 million.

So, like 10-15M more.

But, they might do a little more on merchandising/tie-ins and participations could be cheaper since the new cast members likely do not have the leverage of the original cast when it comes to say back-end deals.

Well, the officially announced budget for DoFP is 200 million, and for XMA is 234 million.
Did they went overbudget for DoFP? If so, they most certainly did for XMA too. Because that reshoots time this year was, what? 3-4 weeks?

 

[GuestStar2004]

i do remember there was talk that the DOFP budget was 225 mil but wiki says it was 200 mil so no idea

 

[Sithborg]

No, under $600 would be disasterous. It is just bad business to spend this much money for such a loss.

Also, reported budgets are often times just smoke and mirrors to keep investors happy.

 

[GuestStar2004]

i don't see it making under $600 for certain

 

[superweirdo87]

Well, the officially announced budget for DoFP is 200 million, and for XMA is 234 million.
Did they went overbudget for DoFP? If so, they most certainly did for XMA too. Because that reshoots time this year was, what? 3-4 weeks?

I would imagine that reshoots are factored into that 234M number because it was reported by business insider, and reshoots happen a lot in big budget movies. So, they might be included in that number.

Deadline reported it cost 220M, and given other outlets have reported similar numbers, it is unlikely that production cost 200M.

 

[superweirdo87]

No, under $600 would be disasterous. It is just bad business to spend this much money for such a loss.

Also, reported budgets are often times just smoke and mirrors to keep investors happy.

It is bad business, and I think some changes have to be made. Fox has to make X-Men movies ever 4 or 7 years to keep their license to make the movies. Maybe, they will reboot given how trendy reboots are. Rebooting soon might be dicey, especially without a clear vision.

Here is the same story with some changes in a modern setting since we think will help us make a profit could work but it might also have a tough time clicking with audiences without a compelling vision or hook.

 

[TheNewSlayer]

Depends, whose the crowd thats different? The first did crack a billion

But Alice first weekend in 2010 didn't really had competition just like this year Deadpool, thats why these movies made such a pile of money.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2010&wknd=10&p=.htm

 

[GuestStar2004]

It is bad business, and I think some changes have to be made. Fox has to make X-Men movies ever 4 or 7 years to keep their license to make the movies. Maybe, they will reboot given how trendy reboots are. Rebooting soon might be dicey, especially without a clear vision.

Well technically deadpool counts as making an X-Men movie so they could live off nothing but deadpool movies if they felt like it.

Technically apocalypse is close enough to a reboot and the casual audience won't suddenly fall for it because its a film set in present day and obvious it would just be recast number 3.

 

[GuestStar2004]

But Alice first weekend in 2010 didn't really had competition just like this year Deadpool, thats why these movies made such a pile of money.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/weekend/chart/?yr=2010&wknd=10&p=.htm

Yeah but it still cracked a billion, people were still deciding to spend their money to see the movie, i wasn't one of them but still.

Now this sequel probably won't make that much since the 3D gimmick probably won't be there anymore but fox have no reason to assume that will be the case

 

[TheNewSlayer]

i don't see it making under $600 for certain

They've made 100m on first weekend internationally.

Lets say 55m on the second weekend internationally.

Lets say 100m on first weekend on US

Lets say 100m in China

We have 355m. The rest will depend on its legs.

So is not a safe bet yet.

Off course I'm hoping to reach 800m or even more, but after the failure of the first weekend I'm not sure. Anyway, I'm hoping does well, I already saw it 3 times.