Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 6

[Sithborg]

Warcraft opened to a $156 for its first five days. It is not likely to break $230 mil there. And that is with Wanda apparently fudging some numbers. So, not quite the success it may seem. And the fact that Apocalypse was able to hold as well as it did in the face of the massive drop of Warcraft is something that Fox will keep in mind in the future. Add in the strong dollar taking a cut out of the foreign box office, I can easily see Fox being okay with its performance.

And just because it is a huge market, doesn't mean that movies will do well there.

 

[def28]

Warcraft would be at what 200m ww without it? I'm sure they are loving that it played well somewhere front loaded or not.

Nobody is saying every single movie released there does well. That's nonsense. But plenty do and it has become far more important to big properties. X-Men included. This board has seemed very aware of this up till now for whatever reason.

X-Men plays well there, so again I'm not even sure why this is being debated. You just can't compare those China numbers to the original trilogy China numbers...cause they pretty much don't exist.

Ticket prices, 3D, IMAX and the international market have changed this decade. There's no way around it.

Also, out of curiosity was First Class even released there?

 

[DavidHaller]

yes, the market has changed. But 500.000.000 is still a lot of money. Can we please stop pretending that EVERY blockbuster movie makes always 750.000.000 million globally? So far this year there are 5 movies who achieved that and one of them is actually an X-Men universe movie called Deadpool which was released earlier this year...

Let's just recruit Deadpool for the next X-Men movie...problem solved.

lol sorry, Sansa. but this is boxoffice gold!

 

[def28]

So we shouldn't compare this to the X-Men franchise? This is the box office thread. It's for that kind of discussion haha.

Yes 500m is alot of money. But these films cost alot of money and spend alot of money on marketing. They need to hit big numbers, which should be obvious by the lack of a 500m and 400m option in this poll. This wasn't predictable.

 

[DavidHaller]

So we shouldn't compare this to the X-Men franchise? This is the box office thread. It's for that kind of discussion haha.

Yes 500m is alot of money. But these films cost alot of money and spend alot of money on marketing. They need to hit big numbers, which should be obvious by the lack of a 500m and 400m option in this poll. This wasn't predictable.

well, it actually was. because non X-Men team movie besides "Days of Future Past" did ever more...

 

[def28]

This film had weeks of poor wom prior to it's release due to early reviews. Nobody was predicting that. Which played into box office and wom not being as strong as the last go around.

 

[jaymes_e06]

well, it actually was. because non X-Men team movie besides "Days of Future Past" did ever more...

People forget that DOFP didn't break 750 mill and it still did better than WS. For some reason back then everyone was saying spinning WS like Marvel weren't dissapointed it didn't do better than an always underdoged X-Men.

 

[def28]

If DOFP had a bit better domestic numbers then that's around what the series should be hitting.

But ****, this is friggin X-Men! Cyclops, Wolverine, Jean Grey, Nightcrawler, Rogue, Magneto, Psylocke, Storm and dozens of others! I get being pissed off at the negativity, disappointed, or even a little jealous. But trying to say that these numbers are what X-Men should be making is flat out ********. If this is everyones new peak for success and expectations for box office with the franchise, then that's just sad.

X-Men should be more near a billion then 500m nowadays. They have more then enough potential within their world regardless of who plays them to get to 800m.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

529m is nothing to sneeze at but considering the last two X-men movies both grossed close to 750m, the BO of X-MA wont make 20th century fox happy.

Will the numbers in Japan help it cross 550m,what do you guys think?

 

[X-Maniac]

Why would we get a full reboot when we have just had a whole load of recastings that set up the next films?

They're hardly going to tear up the contracts for the actors playing Jean, Scott, Storm, Nightcrawler and Jubilee and start all over again. Nor will they ditch McAvoy, Fassbender, Evan Peters and possibly not even Jennifer Lawrence (though she may bow out).

Those actors are not to blame for any mixed reception/performance of the movie; everyone especially seems to have loved the new cast.

Some people need to use more common sense.

 

[Storm22]

Wolverine seems to be the big head scratcher of an issue facing the franchise at the moment. I don't want a reboot either but I don't know how they're going to proceed with/without Wolverine.

 

[jaymes_e06]

If DOFP had a bit better domestic numbers then that's around what the series should be hitting.

But ****, this is friggin X-Men! Cyclops, Wolverine, Jean Grey, Nightcrawler, Rogue, Magneto, Psylocke, Storm and dozens of others! I get being pissed off at the negativity, disappointed, or even a little jealous. But trying to say that these numbers are what X-Men should be making is flat out ********. If this is everyones new peak for success and expectations for box office with the franchise, then that's just sad.

X-Men should be more near a billion then 500m nowadays. They have more then enough potential within their world regardless of who plays them to get to 800m.

I would like to see Marvel do better... honestly I'm not being facetious just thinking what would they improve? How could they? Some would believe that Marvel's strength is all the trivial parts of X-Men stories. I do sometimes too. WS was the first Marvel film to stay with me for reasons other than spectacle so I know they have it in them but X-Men just don't abide by the same formula.

 

[def28]

I'm not worried about Marvel or what they are doing. BP, Spidey, Cap, Iron Man, MS Marvel, Doc Strange, GOTG, Ant Man and Wasp all have their screen time and stories within the next few years.

I'm worried about X-Men getting a grasp on their brilliant characters more. So they can get the attention, success and bigger storylines they deserve.

 

[jaymes_e06]

My point had nothing to do with Marvel's current slate but if they were for whatever reason to get the rights back what would they be able to integrate better than Fox?

I want to see what a collaborative effort would accomplish.

 

[GuestStar2004]

Marvel do solo and team movies to give enough various rotation to keep things fresh while when we talk about X-Men its mostly just team movies expectations every couple of years to give everyone their piece of the pie.

 

[def28]

My point had nothing to do with Marvel's current slate but if they were for whatever reason to get the rights back what would they be able to integrate better than Fox?

I want to see what a collaborative effort would accomplish.

Gotcha.

Regarding success, the one thing is I think for sure would be character marketing and appeal. Marvel would want them to sell more then they ever have and they would have the benefit of merch and other media. Fox doesn't really use alot of the core or fan fav X-Men to their advantage and I think that would change. I don't see Marvel wanting to focus on Prof X, Mags and Mystique so strongly. More so actual X-Men members so their stories would reflect that. A character like say Rogue won't do any good for them not using her powers or having her main charm and feisty attitude. They are aware of way she sells.

But Fox just had the best marketing character campaigns I've seen with Deadpool so, I think they are capable themselves. They just need the right creative team to push some of these characters more not only into the central heart of the franchise but also with the marketing brand.

 

[psylockolussus]

Don't know if this has been posted.
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...inding-dory-just-keeps-swimming/#34d34cb11704

I don't know about not outgrossing X1 in North America but still, yikes!

to some if you don't make a billion WW it's viewed as disappointment.

525-530 Million is a lot of money.and it hasn't even opened In Japan yet.

With lack of original cast in promation like DOFP and critics gunning for it
it did very well for a first class sequel.

With the goodwill of DOFP/Deadpool, this should have been close to X2's North America box-office especially with years of price inflation and 3D. As of now (its already out of the top ten), it just earned 7 to 8 million more than FC's NA box-office gross and that is not good enough.

I wonder how people would have reacted if someone (like me) said 5 months ago, that this would not outgross 2009 Wolverine in North America. Oh dear.

 

[DavidHaller]

so do maybe more of the same boxoffice specialists want to say the same things all over again?

 

[psylockolussus]

I'm not worried about Marvel or what they are doing. BP, Spidey, Cap, Iron Man, MS Marvel, Doc Strange, GOTG, Ant Man and Wasp all have their screen time and stories within the next few years.

I'm worried about X-Men getting a grasp on their brilliant characters more. So they can get the attention, success and bigger storylines they deserve.

Marvel Studios have a lot of things right now which is very exciting! As someone that enjoyed Civil War, I'm really curious about the solo films for Captain Marvel, Black Panther, Doctor Strange and Spider-Man. I don't really like GOTG and Thor 2 was cringe-worthy but I'm still looking forward to the sequels next year and I'm curious to see the new characters that will debut (Mantis, Valkyrie, Hela). And I'm really excited to see which new Avengers are gonna appear in Avengers 3/4.

And to be fair, their track record is way better than Fox's X-Men Movies (I'm not even gonna include Daredevil, Elektra and the 3 Fantastic Four movies). I just feel like maybe if Marvel Studios is handling the X-Men, maybe the movies would have focused more on the X-Men being the X-Men. Like if they had done that after X3 and not just focused on prequels/spin-offs, introduce Gambit, Havok, Banshee, Emma to the team (not in the past where there were no X-Men) that would have been more exciting. Then now, wasted Psylocke, Angel and Jubilee again. I'm not happy with that.

I'm totally fine with Fox handling Deadpool and Wolverine 3. But like ugh, another X-Men movie set in the past with Magneto, Mystique and Quicksilver again. I don't want that! And the numbers don't lie and Fox's shortcomings are once again in full display with Apocalypse's box-office numbers.

 

[Sithborg]

If DOFP had a bit better domestic numbers then that's around what the series should be hitting.

But ****, this is friggin X-Men! Cyclops, Wolverine, Jean Grey, Nightcrawler, Rogue, Magneto, Psylocke, Storm and dozens of others! I get being pissed off at the negativity, disappointed, or even a little jealous. But trying to say that these numbers are what X-Men should be making is flat out ********. If this is everyones new peak for success and expectations for box office with the franchise, then that's just sad.

X-Men should be more near a billion then 500m nowadays. They have more then enough potential within their world regardless of who plays them to get to 800m.

Nothing "deserves" a billion. They have to earn it. And the X-men are having a small slump in popularity. And that's okay. As long as the box office isn't a disaster, we will still be getting these movies.

This is a 16 year old franchise. It is going to have its ups and downs in popularity. And that's okay. The only numbers that fans should worry about is if it is enough to get a sequel.

 

[Zarex]

People forget that DOFP didn't break 750 mill and it still did better than WS. For some reason back then everyone was saying spinning WS like Marvel weren't dissapointed it didn't do better than an always underdoged X-Men.

I believe you are mis-remembering. Virtually no one thought a Captain America solo sequel was going to out earn an X-Men All-Star mashup at the domestic BO. The fact that CA:TWS beat DOFP handily was a surprise no one - including myself - saw coming.

 

[psylockolussus]

Why would we get a full reboot when we have just had a whole load of recastings that set up the next films?

They're hardly going to tear up the contracts for the actors playing Jean, Scott, Storm, Nightcrawler and Jubilee and start all over again. Nor will they ditch McAvoy, Fassbender, Evan Peters and possibly not even Jennifer Lawrence (though she may bow out).

Those actors are not to blame for any mixed reception/performance of the movie; everyone especially seems to have loved the new cast.

Some people need to use more common sense.

Okay maybe people that saw the movie loved the new cast but that the ones that skipped the movie, won't care if they come back.

The thing that I'm getting with this new cast is, to really deliver at the box-office, they would have to appear in a great movie. But if the movie is poor or average at best, their likability cannot carry a large amount of viewers just to see the movie and when you already have freaking jennifer Lawrence in the movie that is a big concern. So it brings the the question of "are they marketable enough" for X-Men movies. IMO no. When the other cast appeared in a so-so movie that is X3 and still earned records for the series at the box-office and and there was still a growth at the box-office.

And if Fox really expected this movie to perform like this, way lower than DOFP's box-office numbers then something is wrong with them. This movie should have kept the momentum, not lose it!

 

[Kanon]

This movie is so lucky that the OS market is the way it is for the las couple of years. Domestic BO is a shame, second to last in the franchise, in adjusted dollars, third unadjusted.

 

[psylockolussus]

This movie is so lucky that the OS market is the way it is for the las couple of years. Domestic BO is a shame, second to last in the franchise, in adjusted dollars, third unadjusted.

And the thing is they cannot always just rely on international markets especially China when they only get like 20% of the box-office sales there. United States is still their main market. And even with other big markets like Australia, UK, Russia, Mexico, Brazil. The numbers are still down compare to DOFP.

 

[GuestStar2004]

The thing that I'm getting with this new cast is, to really deliver at the box-office, they would have to appear in a great movie. But if the movie is poor or average at best, their likability cannot carry a large amount of viewers just to see the movie and when you already have freaking jennifer Lawrence in the movie that is a big concern. So it brings the the question of "are they marketable enough" for X-Men movies. IMO no. When the other cast appeared in a so-so movie that is X3 and still earned records for the series at the box-office and and there was still a growth at the box-office.

Its a different time to what it was in 2006, that was before iron man started the MCU which is already on phase 2 or 3 now and we got the surprise hit of The Dark Knight which WB have already progressed past by now to another reboot so audiences are not gonna be thinking the same way as they were in 2006 with X-Men

I mean who was ruling the comic book box office back in 2006? think it was spider-man wasn't it with $800 mil? because other comic book movies were just doing ok, it wasn't until the dark knight when people thought they found the secret formula to comic book movies being successful.