Apocalypse X-Men: Apocalypse Box Office Prediction Thread

[psylockolussus]

Yeah so lets release all big movies a week after a X-Men film drops because it doesn't always equal same audience... nevermind, if its a blockbuster film that could potentially attract to a large amount of ticket buyers.

 

[def28]

What are you not understanding? Am I saying release a film like Civil War and X-Men very close? No. Am I saying release Independence Day and X-Men right next to eachother? No. Those films have extremely similar audiences that will no doubt effect the other and devour one or the others money.

A film like Cinderella or Maleficent does not cater to that same audience or destroy an audience like X-Mens through the summer. Big difference. Again, if you think that's the main culprit then that's a huge issue for the X-Men franchise. It's just not likely.

X-Men didn't even have another big action film till Transformers hit almost a month later. Maleficent is far fro responsible for X-Men's run. X-Men had a month without any competition in the major property category. A month.

 

[psylockolussus]

Like as if people who watch X-Men aren't watching Cinderella and Maleficent??? Uhhh no. I know a lot of guys (who are in my age by the way) that went to see Maleficent. Me (a guy in my twenties) went to see Cinderella. I have a lot of office mates that goes to the movies every Friday just to see the latest film, doesn't matter what the genre is and generally they don't repeat a movie unless the new movies aren't unappealing enough.

And as if the target audience of Maleficent aka the kids/women aren't gonna tune in for X-Men... usually fantasy/action/sci-if or any high profile movie attracts all audiences.

 

[def28]

If they wanted to see either, they had months to do so. Maleficent did not steal X-Men's audience for the whole summer. That's just ridiculous. But think what you want Psy.

Apocalypse faces far worse competition with the mix of TMNT2, Warcraft, Alice, Now you see me, The Conjuring and Dory all opening within weeks. That's a very diverse selection of films and different target demos that make money. This will be a much more interesting box office run.

 

[Sithborg]

TMNT 2 is going to be interesting to watch. Will it be Rise of the Fallen or Dark Side of the Moon...

 

[def28]

TMNT 2 is going to be interesting to watch. Will it be Rise of the Fallen or Dark Side of the Moon...

Agreed. Lotta fan service in the marketing.

 

[psylockolussus]

I didn't say Maleficent stole DOFP's audience but it had an impact because like I said, audiences flock to the new film of the week, if there was no new big movie aka Maleficent for DOFP's weekend, its 2nd weekend gross would have been higher because some people could have seen DOFP again because there was nothing new. 2nd, from where I live, DOFP's theater drop was kinda big, like majority of the screens were for Maleficent unlike 1 week earlier where majority of the screens were for DOFP.

And like I said before, Apocalypse's competition will definitely affect it. However, probably not as big as Maleficent, since TMNT2/Alice 2 are sequels to films that weren't critically acclaimed (those films usually tend to perform lower with sequels) and I don't see Warcraft getting a large audience.

 

[def28]

And like I said, Apocalypse's competition will definitely affect it. However, probably not as Maleficent, since TMNT2/Alice 2 are sequels to films that weren't critically acclaimed and I don't see Warcraft getting a large audience.

The anticipation for audiences as well as the quality of X-Men has changed since the start of 2014 by quite a bit. So I'm curious to see how that plays. Audiences are not incapable of choosing X-Men over the competition, even weeks after release.

 

[henzINNIT]

I fear Apocalypse is going to struggle to attract viewers the way DOFP did. The returning cast was a huge seller, made the trailers interesting and the tone felt like a real event movie was coming. I'm not getting the same feeling for this, which is concerning when Deadpool came along and slaughtered the franchise's previous numbers. Even DOFP did respectable, but not incredible numbers compared to its budget.

I wonder how Fox are gonna move forward when the profit margins for this year's films will be so dramatically different.

 

[kevork89]

DoFP needed the returning cast, but Apocalypse doesn't. I don't see why the OT is necessary to make this a success. Especially since how well DoFP people are looking forward to this. If Wolverine was as such as a big draw as people think then why haven't his solo movies done as well? DoFP it wasn't just because of the returning cast it was the sentinels. Apocalypse and his horsemen will be a draw for this movie. As well as the setting. The nostalgia of 80s/90s and with the new reveal of the costumes which looks like TAS it's gonna do well.

Plus Deadpool's success will add to it.

 

[def28]

http://pro.boxoffice.com/news/2016-...top-spot-miss-peregrine-announces-its-arrival

Apocalypse led all films in new Facebook likes over the past week with 136,700, bringing its overall tally to 13,386,077 likes. It continues to post strong numbers way in advance of its full advertising pre-release barrage which is a very strong sign, especially since its routinely surpassing its predecessor Days Of Future Past.

Hype has been stronger then DOFP from everything I have read, seen on social media and youtube trailer numbers.

Not sure where people are getting the idea that no OT cast is holding it back.

 

[JP]

We'll get their opening weekend predictions next Friday. I can't wait...

 

[def28]

Nice

Their long range forecast for Deadpool was closer then anyone else's, curious what they have to say here.

 

[psylockolussus]

I fear Apocalypse is going to struggle to attract viewers the way DOFP did. The returning cast was a huge seller, made the trailers interesting and the tone felt like a real event movie was coming. I'm not getting the same feeling for this, which is concerning when Deadpool came along and slaughtered the franchise's previous numbers. Even DOFP did respectable, but not incredible numbers compared to its budget.

I wonder how Fox are gonna move forward when the profit margins for this year's films will be so dramatically different.

You are right, this one doesn't feel like an Event film despite all the action they are showcasing in the trailers... this has more of a First Class vibe but with more action and more well known X-Men characters.

Hype has been stronger then DOFP from everything I have read, seen on social media and youtube trailer numbers.

Or more people just uses YouTube and Social media than 2 years ago?? Fantastic Four 2015 had more trailer views than The Wolverine and look which film earned more money.

 

[def28]

F4 caused controversy, much like Ghostbusters which is why it got hits.

Apocalypse is trending stronger because the interest in X-Men post DOFP and Deadpool is far greater then post First Class and Wolverine.

Do people really think FC and Wolverine had a stronger affect on audiences then DOFP and Deadpool? Combined those films made 1.5 billion. Audience awareness is up considerably because of two highly received films in the franchise.

 

[psylockolussus]

The point is trailer views doesn't equate to bigger box-office gross.

The trailer for The Hobbit wasn't even near DOFP's first trailer and look which film got more money at the box-office. And like I said, every year, more people are being active when it comes to social media sites such as Facebook, Instagram (though I heard Twitter was down last year) and sites like YouTube because of the continuous rise of phone apps and wireless internet connection around the world.

 

[def28]

It's looking at the interest all around as a whole. Which as that article says is passing DOFP on a regular basis.

There is no proof in numbers or anything yet that the lack of OT cast is hurting, that's only an assumption from certain fans such as yourself. Which is fine. More power to you. But there is little to back it up.

 

[psylockolussus]

And as if box-office speculations from registered sites always get it right? Nope.

The hype for this film isn't as big as DOFP. and I have proof for that, see the audience reaction when DOFP had a presentation in Comic-Con to Apocalypse's Comic-Con presentation.... in terms of "youtube views" DOFP had more Youtube views than the other CBM of 2014 while Apocalypse's YouTube view is not even close to Civil War/Suicide Squad and that movie that came out this weekend.

 

[def28]

Again, DOFP and Deadpool obviously created more buzz for the X-Men franchise then where DOFP was at the time.

Apocalypse is in a good place. This is the best time for X-Men hype given the quality and popularity of films with audiences. Why certain X-Men fans don't want to bask in that is beyond me. Strongest success that has been here. Revel in it.

 

[Frankeh]

Or more people just uses YouTube and Social media than 2 years ago?? Fantastic Four 2015 had more trailer views than The Wolverine and look which film earned more money.

Yeah but look at the like/dislike meter. Clearly people were repelled from Fantastic Four after watching the trailers. Such is not the case for Apocalypse. Or Deadpool.

 

[psylockolussus]

I wasn't talking about like/dislike meter, the point is more views doesn't mean more bigger box office gross. Another example for this is Fifty Shades of Grey which almost tripled DOFP's 1st trailer views and doubled Deadpool's first trailer views.

 

[psylockolussus]

Again, DOFP and Deadpool obviously created more buzz for the X-Men franchise then where DOFP was at the time.

No one said thats not the case.

And based on previous box-office results, the lack of original cast definitely didn't help Origins/First Class/The Wolverine. And look when they were brought back, once again another X-Men film earned more than 200 million in North America, thats not just a coincidence and that cast was a big part for the marketing for DOFP.

 

[Frankeh]

I wasn't talking about like/dislike meter, the point is more views doesn't mean more bigger box office gross.

But you can't use Fantastic Four as an example as clearly people after watching the trailer realized they didn't want to buy a ticket (hence why I brought up the dislike meter).

 

[psylockolussus]

I just gave up three other examples why bigger view count doesn't mean bigger box-office gross.

 

[def28]

No one said thats not the case.

And based on previous box-office results, the lack of original cast definitely didn't help Origins/First Class/The Wolverine. And look when they were brought back, once again another X-Men film earned more than 200 million in North America, thats not just a coincidence and that cast was a big part for the marketing for DOFP.

Do we really need to discuss how X3 and XMOW hurt the franchise? Good X-Men films lead to more money. Bad X-Men films lead to less.