Dark Phoenix X-Men: Dark Phoenix News and Speculation Thread - - - - - - Part 15

[psylockolussus]

Because Dark Phoenix is most likely a film that is gonna get a lot of bad reviews and that would affect the public's interest to the next X-Men movie... Not everyone is a X-Men fan and gonna have a mindset of watching every film. Let Apocalypse be the last x film to hit the theaters before the reboot. More Xcitement, more chance of boX office success for the MCU reboot.

And personally speaking I am not praying for Dark Phoenix to fail. Fox already did that failing part when they hired Kinberg to direct, which as a fan of the source material is frustrating.

 

[Dark Raven]

Suppose Mowlgi was released first in theatres before the Jungle Book. Wouldn't WB have stolen some of Disney's thunder?

Would Disney still have gone ahead and released theirs? Maybe they would. But perhaps it wouldn't be as well received because it would seem like someone has already done that, even if Disney's version is superior.

The same could be said of XM: DP. If Marvel wanted to release their own version later on, Dark Phoenix, especially if not well received, might sour the audience on their own version.

When Ang Lee's Hulk came out, and then Marvel released The Incredible Hulk only 5 years later, that still had an effect on its box office performance. TIH might have done better had it not already had the dull Ang Lee version before it.

 

[Zarex]

Disney has a bunch of films lined up for their streaming service, including Noelle, Lady and the Tramp and Magic Camp, that were previously scheduled for a theatrical release. Jungle Book would have been a great fit if they didn't beat Mowgli.

 

[Leo Zelinsky]

$55m.

I can see Dark Phoenix hitting somewhere in the 40s.

Fc- 55
A- 65
Dp- 45 (if it gets a wide theatrical release)

Damn those #'s are really rough to look at

I'll say 75 Opening Weekend for DP.

 

[x-er]

It may be seen as the best option financially. Apocalypse was a critical and BO disappointment, so the follow up was likely to struggle regardless of whether or not it was helmed by newbie director Simon "Fant4stic" Kinberg. Saving $100M or so in marketing costs would be enticing for the Mouse at a time when they are looking for streaming content for Hulu and Disneyflix.

Another point is that HBO's pay window deal with Fox runs through 2022. Does a Direct to Streaming release keep Dark Phoenix off of HBO? If so it would be another incentive, along with easing the transition of the mutants into the MCU, for Disney to keep it out of theaters.

thanks for clarifying this! I now get why a lot of you would prefer watching it on a streaming platform. It's hard to remember everything that goes into making a movie.

About stealing Marvel's thunder, however, it all really depends on how soon Marvel plans to start using X-Men in the MCU. Is it like... now?

 

[Dark Raven]

thanks for clarifying this! I now get why a lot of you would prefer watching it on a streaming platform. It's hard to remember everything that goes into making a movie.

About stealing Marvel's thunder, however, it all really depends on how soon Marvel plans to start using X-Men in the MCU. Is it like... now?

At the latest, the deal will be completely closed by early 2019. The first quarter is when it has been estimated.

That means we could easily start seeing the X-Men showing up in films, even if it isn't in a full X-Men film. We could start seeing cameos like Spider-Man in Civil War for other X-Men characters.

That would even help build them up as individuals because they would have a history that isn't completely tied to the X-Men alone. For example, Wolverine could show up fighting the Hulk as he originally did in the comics.

Even if it isn't next year, as mentioned, Ang Lee's Hulk was in 2003. Marvel's The Incredible Hulk was in 2008. Ang Lee's film still affected the 2008 film's box office.

Also, Marc Webb's Amazing Spider-Man series meant that certain things in Spider-Man had already been done and overused. This meant that Spider-Man Homecoming had to play things quite differently to keep it fresh instead of being able to adhere to the more classic version.

It's better if audiences don't feel that it's the same old X-Men story again with Dark Phoenix. If Disney don't release Kinberg's effort into theatres, then it will feel like a longer time since we saw that story on the big screen (ie the Last Stand) than having 2 versions of it, which would likely prevent Marvel from ever doing a proper version of it themselves.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

It may be seen as the best option financially. Apocalypse was a critical and BO disappointment, so the follow up was likely to struggle regardless of whether or not it was helmed by newbie director Simon "Fant4stic" Kinberg. Saving $100M or so in marketing costs would be enticing for the Mouse at a time when they are looking for streaming content for Hulu and Disneyflix.

Another point is that HBO's pay window deal with Fox runs through 2022. Does a Direct to Streaming release keep Dark Phoenix off of HBO? If so it would be another incentive, along with easing the transition of the mutants into the MCU, for Disney to keep it out of theaters.

I never thought of the HBO thing. Now that is interesting. I wonder how that contract actually works.

 

[magneto23]

Suppose Mowlgi was released first in theatres before the Jungle Book. Wouldn't WB have stolen some of Disney's thunder?

Would Disney still have gone ahead and released theirs? Maybe they would. But perhaps it wouldn't be as well received because it would seem like someone has already done that, even if Disney's version is superior.

The same could be said of XM: DP. If Marvel wanted to release their own version later on, Dark Phoenix, especially if not well received, might sour the audience on their own version.

When Ang Lee's Hulk came out, and then Marvel released The Incredible Hulk only 5 years later, that still had an effect on its box office performance. TIH might have done better had it not already had the dull Ang Lee version before it.

Not buying this thought process. Disney/Marvel, 10+ years in, have way way way too much established goodwill now. Fox's Dark Phoenix can release in 2019 and then Marvel can reboot in 2022 with a film that will undoubtedly out-gross any previous X-Men film. Marvel's thunder will be out of reach if/when they decide to do DP anyways. We're talking years down the line here. Audiences aren't going to sour on anything Disney/Marvel does regardless of the quality(or lack there of) of DP.

 

[TheVileOne]

Disney has a bunch of films lined up for their streaming service, including Noelle, Lady and the Tramp and Magic Camp, that were previously scheduled for a theatrical release. Jungle Book would have been a great fit if they didn't beat Mowgli.

The Jungle Book almost made $1 billion worldwide at less than $200 million. And $364 million domestic...that would've been ridiculous.

 

[Zarex]

The point is that the Disney film may have struggled in theaters if it came out after a well received WB version.

 

[samsnee]

As an X-men fan, I’m willing to wait a few more years to finally get a proper movie than thrown scraps by a studio that made a movie just to keep the rights.

 

[Yowza]

I don't think anyone should worry about what Marvel should or shouldn't do with this film too much. I was sort of hoping Marvel would show their hand for phase 4 just so we could know what they were planning before the acquisition of Fox and how things changed after just for the sake of curiosity.

Even for the people who want re-booted X-Men films so bad they can feel their insides bubble at the thought of having to wait 1 more year need to relax and take some pepto-bismol and realize time can very well equal increased quality for a re-boot and let it settle in more fluently with the MCU.

 

[kevork89]

Because Dark Phoenix is most likely a film that is gonna get a lot of bad reviews and that would affect the public's interest to the next X-Men movie... Not everyone is a X-Men fan and gonna have a mindset of watching every film. Let Apocalypse be the last x film to hit the theaters before the reboot. More Xcitement, more chance of boX office success for the MCU reboot.

And personally speaking I am not praying for Dark Phoenix to fail. Fox already did that failing part when they hired Kinberg to direct, which as a fan of the source material is frustrating.

This movie being released if it has bad press is not going to effect Disney at all.

Spider Man is a perfect example of this. You want Marvel to get it and that’s fine then trust Marvel with what they can do. They’ve shown they can turn trash into treasure so I’m sure they can do the same with X-Men. Dark Phoenix getting a theatrical release won’t change anything Marvel can do with X-Men. I know Marvel is gonna kill it with X-Men but I also wanna see this in the theatre too one last time before everything changed to Marvel.

 

[Iceman]

Meh as an X-Men fan I will support everything X-Men related. Do I look forward to seeing the X-Men in the MCU? Yes I do but I won't sit here and pray for an X-Men movie to be a disaster and throw it away. MCU will reboot the X-Men anyway so what's the problem with this movie coming to the theaters? I'm pretty sure people will get excited with the MCU X-Men even if Dark Phoenix comes out next year (similar to Spider-Man).

If you don't support this movie you can choose to ignore it. Don't need to convene a meeting here and pray for it to fail.

I'm sure the best case scenario for everyone would be if DP happened to be really good and end the Fox films on a positive note. That would surely help the MCU X-film, unlike the MCU F4 film which will be battling against audience perceptions after Fant4stic and the other F4 films. If DP happens to be really bad then it's a different story, but I'd definitely prefer it to be good.

 

[Silvermoth]

Maybe there’s a good opportunity to this? Like you can finally tell the last x-men story where the Phoenix maybe helps the world to cooperate with mutants. It’s an unrealistic idea for the real world but people need hope and if it’s going to end, do the reshoots to give the foxverse the ending it deserves

 

[psyonic]

I thought it was confirmed that we won't be getting X-Men in MCU for at least 5 years? They still have phase 4/Eternals to deal with.

 

[SumT]

none at Marvel has said how many years it will take.

if you count the supposed sequels Marvel has to confirm but will likely make, those aside, there are many free spots since 2021.

2020: Black Panther 2, Guardians 3 and Black Widow.
2021: Spiderman 3, Doctor Strange 2 (maybe) and..............?
2022: Captain Marvel 2. and............ - .............?
2023: .......... , ........... , .........?

Marvel is already releasing 3 movies a year. But with Fox adquisition, they'll likely increase to 4 cbm a year. So one of those spots will be either X-related or f4. But the f4 would get sequels each 3 years, so the other years would have a free spot for a x-project (either solo, team movie or spinoff)

 

[Iceman]

Marvel definitely need to move to 4 films asap now that they are taking on all Fox properties too. Otherwise certain properties will have to suffer.

 

[Iceman]

Maybe there’s a good opportunity to this? Like you can finally tell the last x-men story where the Phoenix maybe helps the world to cooperate with mutants. It’s an unrealistic idea for the real world but people need hope and if it’s going to end, do the reshoots to give the foxverse the ending it deserves

Would make more sense for the Foxverse to end on a good note rather than worldwide destruction.

 

[SumT]

Marvel definitely need to move to 4 films asap now that they are taking on all Fox properties too. Otherwise certain properties will have to suffer.

Kevin (I think) already adressed the possibility of moving to 4 films a year. So they already knew they will have to, sooner rather than later.

I dont see Kevin feige doing Black Panther 3 in 2025, or Avengers 5 in 2028 t:
they have no other option than to release 4 cbms a year. In the end its just like Fox-Disney these latest years: both studios included released like 5 movies a year, so now that Disney has Fox, they have to include at least 1 "Fox cbm" a year.

lets add an example:

2020: X-Force
2021: Fantastic 4
2022: Wolverine
2023: X-Men
2024: Deadpool.

I doubt this will be the exact order, but just to get an idea. My point is, I dont really see Disney doing this:

2020: 0 x-project
2021: 0
2022: Fantastic 4
2023: 0
2024: X-Men
2025: 0
2026: Fantastic 4 sequel
2027: 0
2028: Deadpool 3
2029: 0
2030: X-Men sequel

u feel me? t:
they have no other choice but to release 4 cbms a year.

 

[Jh7058622]

If there are already a section of the audience confused on how the X-men are not part of the mcu then it would save further brand confusion to debut the last two movies on a streaming service so there's less confusion.

You know what would make even more brand confusion a Disney streaming service with the other X-Men from Fox?
Just let Fox's X-Men die with the company don't muddy up the waters by not only making Dark Phoenix not only as part of Disney but making it a "draw" for a new streaming service? That makes no sense. Also no matter how you slice it Dark Phoenix Saga has been adapted twice so everyone trying to avoid a theatrical release are still probably not going to get another for quite some time.

 

[The Original Bamfer]

I truly think the X-Men belong with Marvel/Disney, but I still want to see how Fox’s likely last entry in the series turns out. I’ve invested so much time into Fox’s interpretation of the stories and characters that I look forward to another installment, even if it has the odds against it. There’s more I like about this franchise than I dislike. And, no, I’m not thrilled with the idea of Kinberg directing, but that also doesn’t automatically mean it’ll be terrible, either. I just think it deserves fans (of any prior X-Men films) to give it a chance. Worst case scenario? It’ll be awful and Disney reboots it in a few years.

 

[Raiden]

This movie being released if it has bad press is not going to effect Disney at all.

Spider Man is a perfect example of this. You want Marvel to get it and that’s fine then trust Marvel with what they can do. They’ve shown they can turn trash into treasure so I’m sure they can do the same with X-Men. Dark Phoenix getting a theatrical release won’t change anything Marvel can do with X-Men. I know Marvel is gonna kill it with X-Men but I also wanna see this in the theatre too one last time before everything changed to Marvel.

Dark Phoenix will affect MCU's reboot of X-Men, either by confusing the two to the general audience, or by negatively influencing the reboot. Plus it will tie Marvel's hands if they ever wanted to do a DP saga in the MCU; just look at Spider-Man, for instance. The first trilogy had Mary Jane, the second trilogy featured Gwen Stacy, and the new series introduced MJ (Michelle Johnson). Just by looking at the love interest alone tells you that they had to change things up so it won't feel too repetitive. After we get two Dark Phoenix Saga, it will hurt MCU's freedom to make a movie based on this story line without looking like a rehash of the previous two DP movies. Disney bid 71 billion for Fox; I doubt they want to be put in that position.

 

[Raiden]

I thought it was confirmed that we won't be getting X-Men in MCU for at least 5 years? They still have phase 4/Eternals to deal with.

Very little information has been given about Phase 4, and I'm positive that Kevin Feige will change his schedule once he gets the green light to make X-Men and FF movies; he'd be stupid not to.

 

[Silver Surfer]

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12:25 mark

Sneider and Perri of collider discussed this. Perri thinks it could be scrapped completely while Sneider says they will both be likely released on streaming. They also mentioned they have heard rumors that even the reshoots have been paused because the movie is such an utter train wreck. Like I said there is no way DP or NM get released on theaters.