Estimated Box Office Take

[invincible mann]

piracy is always a problem
but i think hollywoods cracking down on it
so far no bootleg editions of X3

 

[Halcohol]

piracy is always a problem
but i think hollywoods cracking down on it
so far no bootleg editions of X3

That's cause the movie's probably not even finished yet lol

 

[josh8]

Lets not forget that over time costs increase. This movie will make more not only because more people will go see it but also because the cost of seeing a movie has gone up over time, therefore the ammount of money a movie makes will increase even if the same ammount of people go see it.

unfortunately, inflation and a bunch of other factors are also having a negative effect on moviegoing. the current trend is seeing less people going to movie theaters (i cant remember the percent).

but you're right, if the same amount of people go see this movie (hopefully) than x3 will make more than x2. however, the bread and butter of big blockbusters comes from repeat business, and i hear that's down a lot now too, no matter how good the movies are.

 

[Pickle-El]

Thanks in large part to X2, I think the opening for X3 should be in similar range to X2. (Around 80 Million, which is MUCH more now than it was 3 years ago)

Taking all considerations into account, even if X3 doesn't quite have the 'heart' of X2. (Which many fear for) The action should pick up. I don't see why X3 shouldn't hit around 220-240 Domestically. And about the same Internationally.

WorldWide, I think it'll be in the 450-510 range IF the story is told in such a fashion that people won't see it the first time and walk out saying, 'Wow. There were so many explosions!' There has to be a real placement on the 'cure' storyline....(One reason why Singer is such a good storyteller, he knows how to deal with character in real life situations)

Basically, it should open big like X2. A lot though, will be left to Ratner's ability to let a story unfold on the screen.....I don't worry about the action. I just hope the story is up it.

 

[invincible mann]

trust me that doesnt stop pirates
often bootlegs are released with unfinished effects
bootlegs arent known for their quality

 

[phantom47]

so much much do you think this movie needs to make to secure a x4

 

[YJ1]

With the whole "Last of the trilogy" controversy and all the: who dies? who doesnt die? who is cured? who wins? sentinels?phoenix? This movie will far surpass X2.

The only thing that concerns me is word of mouth for general movie goers. If these "deaths" aren't handled right, they could turn people off in a hurry. Daredevil did very well at the box office but "killing" Elektra like they did turned off a lot of repeat customers and hurt the word of mouth business. Please don't chime in on what you thought of the Daredevil movie, the quality of the film isn't my point here. It's the death of any character that general movie audiences have grown an attachment to that matters. I think it's safe to say that Scott, Xavier and even Jean aren't exactly sure bets to finish this trilogy still breathing.

so much much do you think this movie needs to make to secure a x4?

Anything equal to or surpassing X2's numbers will guarantee future X-Films. $220 million domestic or above...

 

[RagingTempest]

Over 400 million is great number!! How would that not green light an X4!!!

 

[aaron]

thinking bout 450 worldwide

 

[TNC9852002]

so much much do you think this movie needs to make to secure a x4

They would need a worldwide gross north of $475m, IMO

-TNC

 

[Excel]

I think you may be underestimating rewatchability factors. Sentinels, more action, etc., are guaranteed in this film. Nostalgic storylines, i.e. the rise of The Dark Phoenix, and character improvements for certain X-Men are also going to be front and center. When you combine all of these elements, plus the tremendous mainstream momentum produced by the first two films, it's highly possible that X3 will best its predecessors by a large margin.

And let us not discount FOX's marketing machine. You won't be able to hide in a nook or cranny anywhere in 5 weeks without facing an X and a 3.

if anythingim underestimating the hype, and while im sure the fox marketing will be out of this world, the film flat out doesnt appeal to enough people(kids mainly) to give an opening weekend over 90 million while opening on memorial day. if x3 was released say, may 5th with no compitition, itd open to about 95 million. but the fact is, alot of people on friday,saturday, and sunday will wait till monday, which will lower the weekend. rewatchability isnt an issue-i gave this a 3.0 multiplier while x2 had a 2.5 and x1 had a 2.8.

yeah its possible itll beat its predecsors by a lot, but not all that much.

Final Predictions:

FRIDAY, may 26th- 32.8 million
SATURDAY, may 27th- 26.2 million
SUNDAY, may 27th-23.4 million
3 day total - 82 million
MONDAY, may 28th- 20.2 million
4 day total-102 million
2nd WEEKEND, june 2nd-4th - 36.6 million, -55%
U.S. total-246 million

 

[phantom47]

if anythingim underestimating the hype, and while im sure the fox marketing will be out of this world, the film flat out doesnt appeal to enough people(kids mainly) to give an opening weekend over 90 million while opening on memorial day. if x3 was released say, may 5th with no compitition, itd open to about 95 million. but the fact is, alot of people on friday,saturday, and sunday will wait till monday, which will lower the weekend. rewatchability isnt an issue-i gave this a 3.0 multiplier while x2 had a 2.5 and x1 had a 2.8.

yeah its possible itll beat its predecsors by a lot, but not all that much.

Final Predictions:

FRIDAY, may 26th- 32.8 million
SATURDAY, may 27th- 26.2 million
SUNDAY, may 27th-23.4 million
3 day total - 82 million
MONDAY, may 28th- 20.2 million
4 day total-102 million
2nd WEEKEND, june 2nd-4th - 36.6 million, -55%
U.S. total-246 million

saturday alwys seems to do better that friday totoals, so i would think that friday and saturday should be switched.....and just lower monday a little less, but i think it will make about 92 that holiday weekened

 

[Advanced Dark]

saturday alwys seems to do better that friday totoals, so i would think that friday and saturday should be switched.....and just lower monday a little less, but i think it will make about 92 that holiday weekened

Those totals are way low. Ticket prices are higher than X2 and there are more screens for X3 to be released on.

 

[GothicPowerMix1]

$100,000000000000,0000000000000000000,0000000000000000000,0000000000.00

 

[WorthyStevens]

My guess...

05/26 $39,000,000
05/27 $37,000,000 $76,000,000
05/28 $33,000,000 $109,000,000
05/29 $27,000,000 $136,000,000

 

[MJB]

I think X3 will have a surprisingly large number of repeat viewers due to the plot twists (and of course Famke Janssen's performance). I know I will end up seeing it at least a couple times in the theater.

I wish I shared you faith in the goodness of the script. The trailer look good, but Kinberg(especially Kinberg) and Penn does not inspire confidence.

 

[demitri_vampiro]

well i hope x-3 does the same amount as PotC did. 300+ in the us and another 350+ outside us.
that would be enough for x-4

 

[Advanced Dark]

^ That would be more than enough for X4. All we need for X4 is a profit cause that pays everyone. 200 domestic and 200 international would be more than enough but Fox is gonna go all out on this one. I think 300+ would be completely unexpected but great.

 

[PhoenixRisen]

I wish I shared you faith in the goodness of the script. The trailer look good, but Kinberg(especially Kinberg) and Penn does not inspire confidence.

I guess I am lucky in that I am a "blank slate" when it comes to the writers. But even so, I know that someone can strike out a bunch of times and suddenly hit a home run...And then proceed to strike out again...Or vice versa...Just because someone makes a bad movie (let's see, "1941"?) doesn't mean their next will be bad ("Raiders")...and just because someone makes a great movie doesn't mean their next will be great...(umm, "Close Encounters"..."1941").
Although I think the movie will be great, I'm not going on "faith," just what I have actually seen with my own eyes, opposed to speculation or judging on past performance. For example, the fact that FOX is showing X3 at Cannes is just another "good sign." So far, I haven't seen anything of the actual product I don't like.
P.S. I am now leaning toward the high end of my previously stated ranges...

 

[Excel]

saturday alwys seems to do better that friday totoals, so i would think that friday and saturday should be switched.....and just lower monday a little less, but i think it will make about 92 that holiday weekened

x3 is the kinda movie thatll have midnight screenings wh8ich mean an inflated opening dsay and no saturday rise.

see fantastic four.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

x3 is the kinda movie thatll have midnight screenings wh8ich mean an inflated opening dsay and no saturday rise.

see fantastic four.

Fantastic Four didn't have midnight showings.

 

[Eros]

whats hte point most people will just download it and avoid the theaters.

 

[Excel]

Fantastic Four didn't have midnight showings.

my theater did i believe..anyways its not even that-most big event movies-like x3-have bigger opening days then saturday, unless it has major kid appeal. mid night screenings, presales, fanbases, and just all around hype make this.

see star wars, harry potter, ect.

 

[Psionic Force]

So now that the judge has decided that the author of DaVinci Code is not at fault for anything, and the movie will STILL be released on May 19th, how do you all think it will do? Minds change?

 

[Advanced Dark]

I don't think anyone thought the movie was going to be delayed in reality. There was a hope that it might but it won't effect opening week at all. Not sure how many X-Men fans under the age of 18 are going to rush to DaVinci code, and DaVinci code isn't likely a movie fans will see over and over. X3 is that type of film and will get multiple viewings. Having a best selling book doesn't mean best selling movie. DaVinci should do good but it won't touch X3's final tally.