2012: A Monster Year? (box office predictions) - Part 5

[marvelman2006]

I wouldnt be surprised if someday after spielberg has passed on that they dont try to revisit jaws, close encounters or even back to the future .

On recalls budget, If this movie flops and walks away with under $100 domestically when its done then I can see wiseman not getting a big budget like that for a while and being forced back to smaller scale movies like underworld, heck if this bombs maybe he'll do underworld 4 finally.

 

[Shifty]

Total Recall isn't a classic, so I'm not up in arms about it the way I would be about something like a Jaws remake. But it is a goofy, 80s style science fiction film that I just don't think can work in today's environment. Would I be wrong to assume that they've sanitized the new version to get a PG-13 rating instead of the R rating it needs to make it work?

Regardless of whether the remake had potential or not, spending 200 million was insane.

I can just imagine what they're going to spend on their Jumanji remake.

Sony/MGM seems set on mining their library or whatever they now have the rights from to do reboots/remakes.

The Pink Panther 1 & 2, The Taking of Pelham 1 2 3, Red Dawn, Total Recall, RoboCop, Jumanji, Ghostbusters 3 (which is more or less a reboot), Amazing Spider-Man 2, and another Zorro film.

 

[amazingfantasy15]

Here's last summer's list of bombs and disappointments more or less. Cowboys & Aliens and Green Lantern are this year's Dark Shadows and Battleship.

Whoever though Dark Shadows and Battleship would be blockbusters were morons. Cowboys & Aliens and Green Lantern were much better bets, it's just the story for both movies sucked.

Am I the only one who thought total recall needed a reboot? has anyone seen the original lately, it does not hold up well at all. I hope it does well and makes some cash and since Ive relogated myself to realizing TDKR isnt doing dark knight numbers we might as well end summer with some big numbers.

Total Recall didn't need a reboot, the original is a silly late '80s/early '90s movie, it's a movie of it's time. Making it all clean, slick and CGI kills the appeal of the original movie. Also changing the hero from Arnold the superhero to more John McClane everyman hero also kills part of the appeal. I'll check it out on DVD or cable, but it's not worth a theater ticket.

 

[DACrowe]

Did you guys see the trailer for Celeste and Jesse Forever?
It actually looks like it'll be in the same mold of 500 Days and Crazy Stupid Love with the whole "romantic break up comedy-drama"

Actually opens this weekend and already has an 80% on RT



Damn shame. It looks really good to me

Looks interesting. Always liked Andy Samberg and Rashida Jones. It looks a bit more serious than a romcom and I doubt they're getting together. But it looks entertaining.

 

[Evil Twin]

Wait, did I see Beasts of the Southern Wild listed as a bomb? It's only been out a few weeks in limited release and has more than doubled its budget. It's no blockbuster but it's well on track to be considered a success. Especially if it gets awards consideration.

 

[Shifty]

Wait, did I see Beasts of the Southern Wild listed as a bomb? It's only been out a few weeks in limited release and has more than doubled its budget. It's no blockbuster but it's well on track to be considered a success. Especially if it gets awards consideration.

It just doubled this week after expanding to more theaters to break even status. There is still marketing and distribution costs. It will be changed for the next update.

 

[Shifty]

FIRST BOX OFFICE: ‘Total Recall’ And ‘Dark Knight Rises’ Neck-And-Neck For #1; ‘Wimpy Kid 3′ Holding Its Own
By NIKKI FINKE | Friday August 3, 2012 @ 1:15pm PDT

FRIDAY 1 PM: Based on matinee trends, it looks like a tight weekend race for #1 between Sony Pictures’ reboot Total Recall and Warner Bros’ and Legendary Pictures’ third-weekend-veteran The Dark Knight Rises. Nice to hear from my box office gurus again now that the theatrical grosses are returning to normal following the Aurora shooting tragedy. But exactly how big a bite the continuing popularity of the London Olympics games will take remains to be seen. Right now it looks like the PG-13 Total Recall (3,601 theaters) reboot will gross $9.5-$12.5M today and $26M-$32M for the weekend. PG-13-rated TDKR (4,242 theaters) looks like $8M-$10M today and $27M-$33M for the weekend. Finally this is the first time any installment of the Wimpy Kid franchise is opening not in March but in summer. But Fox’s PG-rated Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 3: Dog Days (3,392 theaters) is as usual holding its own for about $7M-8M today and $19M-$23M for the weekend. More later.

Recall needed more.

 

[MadVillainy]

Yeah even if it opens with 33 mill, that still wont be that good for a 200 mill film would it?

 

[TheOnlyOmega]

I wouldnt be surprised if someday after spielberg has passed on that they dont try to revisit jaws, close encounters or even back to the future .

On recalls budget, If this movie flops and walks away with under $100 domestically when its done then I can see wiseman not getting a big budget like that for a while and being forced back to smaller scale movies like underworld, heck if this bombs maybe he'll do underworld 4 finally.

If anyone is going to remake those movies it'll be Speilberg himself. No established director would want that challenge.

 

[terry78]

Those Wimpy Kid movies have been doing pretty well considering. I saw the first two on cable, they're not horrible.

 

[MadVillainy]

i like the wimpy kids movies. Honestly I think theyre funny

 

[Shifty]

Yeah even if it opens with 33 mill, that still wont be that good for a 200 mill film would it?

Based on the films from this year I wouldn't say so. It would need great legs like 21 Jump Street or Journey 2. And then an incredible overseas run of $400 million.

Opening Weekend ● Domestic Gross
16 21 Jump Street Sony $36,302,612 ● $138,447,667 3/16/12
17 The Devil Inside Par. $33,732,515 ● $53,261,944 1/6/12
18 Think Like a Man SGem $33,636,303 ● $91,547,205 4/20/12
19 Wrath of the Titans WB $33,457,188 ● $83,670,083 3/30/12
20 John Carter BV $30,180,188 ● $73,078,100 3/9/12
21 Dark Shadows WB $29,685,274 ● $79,519,186 5/11/12
22 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB $27,335,363 ● $103,860,290 2/10/12
23 Battleship Uni. $25,534,825 ● $65,233,400 5/18/12
24 Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection LGF $25,390,575 ● $63,410,425 6/29/12
25 Underworld Awakening SGem $25,306,725 ● $62,321,039 1/20/12

 

[MadVillainy]

Based on the films from this year I wouldn't say so. It would need great legs like 21 Jump Street or Journey 2. And then an incredible overseas run of $400 million.

Opening Weekend ● Domestic Gross
16 21 Jump Street Sony $36,302,612 ● $138,447,667 3/16/12
17 The Devil Inside Par. $33,732,515 ● $53,261,944 1/6/12
18 Think Like a Man SGem $33,636,303 ● $91,547,205 4/20/12
19 Wrath of the Titans WB $33,457,188 ● $83,670,083 3/30/12
20 John Carter BV $30,180,188 ● $73,078,100 3/9/12
21 Dark Shadows WB $29,685,274 ● $79,519,186 5/11/12
22 Journey 2: The Mysterious Island WB $27,335,363 ● $103,860,290 2/10/12
23 Battleship Uni. $25,534,825 ● $65,233,400 5/18/12
24 Tyler Perry's Madea's Witness Protection LGF $25,390,575 ● $63,410,425 6/29/12
25 Underworld Awakening SGem $25,306,725 ● $62,321,039 1/20/12

But comparing some of these to Total Recall doesnt make sense 30 mill for Think Like a Man is a lot different than 30 mill with John Carter

 

[Shifty]

But comparing some of these to Total Recall doesnt make sense 30 mill for Think Like a Man is a lot different than 30 mill with John Carter

True but those are the yearly domestic box office rankings, there aren't anymore films that opened in that range that finished better. Just showing that with a $200 million budget you don't want a $30 million opening and that Total Recall could finish anywhere from $65 million to $100 million domestic depending how it does after this weekend. It would need incredible WOM and terrific legs like Puss in Boots (a 3% drop in its second weekend) but that isn't happening.

The Campaign and The Bourne Legacy will push it a side.

 

[Mrs. Sawyer]

i like the wimpy kids movies. Honestly I think theyre funny

Yeah, they're not bad at all. They're fun little kid movies to watch.

 

[:eek:]

Top 20 worldwide

1. Marvel's The Avengers $1461 million
2. The Hunger Games $683,3 million
3. The Amazing Spider-Man $659 million
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift $653,7 million
5. Men in Black 3 $619,3 million
6. The Dark Knight Rises $566,4 million
7. Madagascar 3: Europe's Most Wanted $501,8 million
8. Snow White and the Huntsman $385,8 million
9. The Intouchables $360,2 million
10. Titanic $343,6 million ($2185,4 million in total)
11. Journey 2: The Mysterious Island $325,9 million
12. Dr. Seuss' The Lorax $324,6 million
13. Brave $312,4 million
14. Prometheus $302,9 million
15. Battleship $302,8 million
16. Wrath of the Titans $302 million
17. John Carter $282,8 million
18. Ted $244,9 million
19. Dark Shadows $236,3 million
20. American Reunion $233,6 million

 

[rayc1971]

But comparing some of these to Total Recall doesnt make sense 30 mill for Think Like a Man is a lot different than 30 mill with John Carter

true .mostof those movies had lower budgets.battleship and john carter had 200mill budgets think like a man was a surprise hit.

 

[rashad]

Top 20 worldwide
6. The Dark Knight Rises $566,4 million

TDKR is over $622 million worldwide. BOM doesn't update foreign numbers until Sunday. Screen Daily reports the midweek/weekend overseas numbers

Warner Bros Pictures International’s The Dark Knight Rises had grossed $304.5m through Thursday (Aug 2) and is expected to dominate the session in its third weekend. via Screen Daily

That $304.5m figure doesn't include the numbers from Thurs. It's probably closer to $320m heading into the weekend

 

[Marvin]

if Recall beats TDKR this weekend...
the 2008 competition point will have been proven.

 

[Bruce Malone]

if Recall beats TDKR this weekend...
the 2008 competition point will have been proven.

Well it's for sure not...



‘Dark Knight Rises’ Trounces ‘Total Recall’; Batman Finale #1 For 3rd Straight Weekend; Low-Budget ‘Diary Of Wimpy Kid 3′ Third

 

[Shifty]

Ted is still going strong and will pass $200M, TASM will pass $250M and Magic Mike over $110M.

‘Dark Knight Rises’ Trounces ‘Total Recall’; Batman Finale #1 For 3rd Straight Weekend; Low-Budget ‘Diary Of Wimpy Kid 3′ Third
By NIKKI FINKE | Friday August 3, 2012 @ 10:32pm PDT

FRIDAY 10:30 PM, 2ND UPDATE: Based on today’s trends, it looks like Sony Pictures’ reboot of 1990′s iconic Arnold Schwarzenegger actioner Total Recall now starring anything-but-iconic Colin Farrell isn’t giving Warner Bros’ and Legendary Pictures’ third-weekend-veteran The Dark Knight Rises the tight race Hollywood expected. (Nice to hear from my opinionated gurus again…) But theatrical grosses are still not returning to normal. Instead of the Aurora shooting tragedy spooking box office, the red-hot London Olympics (“NBC Holds America Hostage: Day 8&#8243 is distracting filmgoers. Total moviegoing this weekend looks like $120M which is down yet again (-25%) from last year.

Right now it looks like the PG-13 rated TDKR (4,242 theaters) bounces back for $10.2M Friday and $36M for the weekend. PG-13 Total Recall (3,601 theaters) will gross $9.5M Friday and $26.5M for the weekend. But rival studios point out that won’t be enough to make up its $150M cost unless it hits big overseas. On the other hand, Fox’s PG-rated Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 3 (3,392 theaters) was made on only a $22M negative. This is the first time any installment in the successful Wimpy Kid franchise isn’t opening in March. And while the original and sequels scored $22.1M and $23.7M respectively, the new one called Dog Days is opening for about $6M Friday and $17M for the weekend. Full analysis and refined numbers later. Here’s the Top Ten based on Friday estimates:

1. Dark Knight Rises (Legendary/Warner Bros) Week 3 [4,242 Runs] PG13
Friday $10.2M, Weekend $36.0M, Cume $354.0M

2. Total Recall (Sony) NEW [3,601 Runs] PG13
Friday $9.5M, Weekend $26.5M

3. Diary Of A Wimpy Kid 3 (Fox) NEW [3,391 Runs] PG
Friday $6.0M, Weekend $17.0M

4. Ice Age 4 (Fox) Week 4 [3,542 Runs] PG
Friday $2.3M, Weekend $7.8M, Cume $131.3M

5. The Watch (Fox) Week 2 [3,168 Runs] R
Friday $1.8M (-57%), Weekend $5.6M, Cume $24.6M

6. Ted (Universal) Week 6 [2,767 Runs] R
Friday $1.6M, Weekend $5.5M, Cume $203.4M

6. Step Up Revolution (Summit/Lgate) Week 2 [2,606 Runs] PG13
Friday $1.6M,Weekend $4.8M, Cume $22.5M

8. The Amazing Spider-Man (Col/Sony) Week 5 [2,425 Runs] PG13
Friday $1.3M, Weekend $4.5M, Cume $250.8M

9. Brave (Pixar-Disney) Week 7 [2,110 Runs] PG
Friday $750K, Weekend $2.5M, Cume $222.9M

10. Magic Mike (Warner Bros) Week 6 [1,202 Runs] R
Friday $500K, Weekend $1.4M, Cume $110.9M

 

[Liam_H]

Lol, poor TR it can't even perform up to very low expectations.

 

[terry78]

It was supposed to be the big one for August alongside Expendables I think. I suspect Bourne Legacy will beat Bats next weekend though.

 

[rashad]

BOM Friday Estimates

1. The Dark Knight Rises - $10,400,000
2. Total Recall - $9,200,000
3. Diary of a Wimpy Kid: Dog Days - $5,850,000
4. Ice Age: Continental Drift: $2,475,000
5. The Watch - $1,915,000
6. Step Up Revolution - $1,770,000
7. Ted - $1,600,000
8. The Amazing Spider-Man - $1,200,000
9. Brave - $811,000
10. Magic Mike - $470,000

http://boxofficemojo.com/daily/chart/?sortdate=2012-08-03&p=.htm

 

[Liam_H]

Bourne Legacy will beat TDKR next weekend. Only chance for that not happening is if its tracking around $25 million and TDKR holds far better than expected.