B/O Forecast: Pirates 3 Vs. Spider-Man 3

[Cinemaman]

ROTS is Star Wars. It would have made money regardless. And LOTR wasn't really a kids movie. Movies like Spider-Man 3 need the kid audience. Even if fanboys don't want to admit it.

Still, LOTR made huge box office, becasue of teenagers and big fanbase (the same what has Spidey 3).

Teens are the best crowd for summer blockbuster.

And look at 300. It had very smart marketing strategy and it mad emoney with R rating and blood & erotic scenes.

 

[Cinemaman]

well if u think about it...POTC's b/o has increased per movie....though Spider-Man's has decreased...theres nowhere left to go but down for spidey...t:

Pirates 1: $305,413,918
Pirates 2: $423,315,812

Spider-Man 1: $403,706,375
Spider-Man 2: $373,585,825

Actually it's not about getting down or getting higher (Star Wars III made much more than Star Wras II).

Both Spider-man 1 and 2 made $776m (domesticly), while Pirates got only $728m.

 

[Cinemaman]

]*cough* Matrix 2 *cough*[/B]

- "bridge" film
- better box office than first, serious drop off in third
- third promised more action and delivered, but too close= people were not interested.

----------------------------

Also anyone thinking POTC3 will get the same or above box office as POTC2 is seriously kidding themselves. POTC2 summer had rare competition, especially from the 'blockbuster' genre.... this summer is PACKED with so many blockbusters that their all going to hurt themselves probably.

Even in the action and comedy categories:

I can almost guarantee Evan Almighty will whoop Talledega and every comedy last summer.

While Die Hard makes Miami Vice it's *****, "now you see this is how you make a REAL action movie! Yippie ki yay mother fcker!"

---------------------------------

Also, please note that I'm not saying POTC3 is going to flop or anything like that....

Rather: Spider-Man 3, POTC3, and Shrek 3 (yes Shrek 3) will all be running neck and neck most likely...

People underestimated Shrek 2, personally- I won't make that same mistake again because they might very well end up laughing at ALL of us.

Totaly agreed

 

[Tempest19]

Wow.... I didn't even know that- lol.

 

[Victor Creed]

Still, LOTR made huge box office, becasue of teenagers and big fanbase (the same what has Spidey 3).

Teens are the best crowd for summer blockbuster.

You can't make a judgement based on the teen crowd. Remember the stupid little children and girls/women with bad taste who will see POTC six thousand times for Johnny Depp.

Honestly, I liked SM, but from what I have seen so far regarding SM3, I have not really been impressed. At least we know what we are getting with POTC3. Also the POTC trilogy has more flow and connection between the movies and their plot line, rather than a vague, sort of chronology between the SM movies.

 

[L0ngsh0t]

I voted out of the preference I have for the Pirates franchise (only because I like DMC a tad bit better than Spidey 2, Curse and SM1 are both about 5-7 on my top 10 list)

I wish I hadn't, cause I think the wiseness that is Hunter Rider has it right, if the AWE trailer looks awesome, and better than SM3, I can almost garuntee it will make more, but the fact is, I don't know how the trailer will look and no one does, if it looks like ****, or les than impressive, I think we might have something too talk about

 

[Cinemaman]

You can't make a judgement based on the teen crowd. Remember the stupid little children and girls/women with bad taste who will see POTC six thousand times for Johnny Depp.

Honestly, I liked SM, but from what I have seen so far regarding SM3, I have not really been impressed. At least we know what we are getting with POTC3. Also the POTC trilogy has more flow and connection between the movies and their plot line, rather than a vague, sort of chronology between the SM movies.

And so what? Still, people will go to see Spidey 3, because it's first to come.

You knwo, I think POTC3 will be the worst Pirate movie in teh whole trilogy. Why? Because I just think so. I was a bit disappointed with DMC and now I lost any interest to the 3rd one. Besides POTC is such trilogy as LOTR or SW, if you talk about it's timeline. What about Spider-man? It has the same timeline, which had Terminator or Superman (only I and II).

 

[Matt]

Still, LOTR made huge box office, becasue of teenagers and big fanbase (the same what has Spidey 3).

Teens are the best crowd for summer blockbuster.

And look at 300. It had very smart marketing strategy and it mad emoney with R rating and blood & erotic scenes.

Thats not true, children are the best summer audience because for every child you're guarunteed usually two tickets (one for the child, one for the parent) sometimes more (two parents, multiple children, groups of parents and children, etc).

300's success has nothing to do with comic fans...if only comic fans saw it, you would have about a 2 million dollar weekend. 300 did well because it is advertised as (I'm not sure if it is or not because I haven't seen it) an epic, sword and shield, war movie in a time when usually only romantic comedies and cheap horror movies are released.

 

[Tempest19]

Yeah, that's why I said- don't dismiss Shrek 3. Because at summer end they might be laughing at everyone again.

 

[Cinemaman]

Thats not true, children are the best summer audience because for every child you're guarunteed usually two tickets (one for the child, one for the parent) sometimes more (two parents, multiple children, groups of parents and children, etc).

300's success has nothing to do with comic fans...if only comic fans saw it, you would have about a 2 million dollar weekend. 300 did well because it is advertised as (I'm not sure if it is or not because I haven't seen it) an epic, sword and shield, war movie in a time when usually only romantic comedies and cheap horror movies are released.

Good point. I am agreed with you, but I think Spidey 3 looks too epic and eciting to have no kids as big issue

 

[Matt]

Yeah, that's why I said- don't dismiss Shrek 3. Because at summer end they might be laughing at everyone again.

I think Shrek has the young female audience locked. The problem I see it having is, I just don't think it can compete with Spider-Man and Pirates for the young male audience. And being as movie tickets are 8 bucks a pop, I just can't see parents taking kids to all three in the same month.

 

[Matt]

Good point. I am agreed with you, but I think Spidey 3 looks too epic and eciting to have no kids as big issue

It depends, the trailers have been fairly dark...I mean, you see the hero throwing a bomb at his best friend in the trailer. You see Mary Jane crying after Peter hit her (which is bound to get some bad press closer to release) Those type of things definitely aren't going to sit well with parents. The darkness of the movie will probably lead to better quality, but it shouldn't be what they are flaunting in the trailers from an advertisment stand point.

 

[Tempest19]

Yeah, that has me worried too- it's a really DARK film... but, hey I didn't know how ROTS would turn out either and that didn't seem to hurt that film like some thought it might- so that won't probably hurt Spidey.

Because at least Spidey isn't hinted to killing Jedi CHILDREN.

 

[Cinemaman]

It depends, the trailers have been fairly dark...I mean, you see the hero throwing a bomb at his best friend in the trailer. You see Mary Jane crying after Peter hit her (which is bound to get some bad press closer to release) Those type of things definitely aren't going to sit well with parents. The darkness of the movie will probably lead to better quality, but it shouldn't be what they are flaunting in the trailers from an advertisment stand point.

Yeah, but the same was with ROTS and ROTK trailers. Still, both movies made very very high numbers. It's all about teens and fanbase now.

 

[Matt]

Star Wars is Star Wars. You just can't compare the two. I know it sounds like a cop out, but its not. Star Wars fan base is far larger than Spider-Man. Besides, society is a strange thing. Killing a bunch of strange little kids on an alien world may not effect parents as much as a man in New York City slapping his fiancee. It is a really fine line to walk. Should be interesting to see the hype that develops around that scene.

And Lord of the Rings did not rely on a youth audience.

 

[PirateLord89]

Star Wars is Star Wars. You just can't compare the two. I know it sounds like a cop out, but its not. Star Wars fan base is far larger than Spider-Man. Besides, society is a strange thing. Killing a bunch of strange little kids on an alien world may not effect parents as much as a man in New York City slapping his fiancee. It is a really fine line to walk. Should be interesting to see the hype that develops around that scene.

And Lord of the Rings did not rely on a youth audience.

Spider-Man slaps Mary-Jane??

 

[Cinemaman]

^^^

Actually it's Pete under symbiote's control.

 

[PirateLord89]

oh yeah...in the trailer when she falls...i didn't know he slaps her though...

 

[Tempest19]

And to be fair- Harry deserved it (although slightly off topic)- if you watch carefully in the new preview...

Spoiler

Harry throws the pumpkin bomb at Peter. Peter catches it and throws it back at Harry... so, Harry had it coming-

And yeah, Peter does slap MJ around but he knows it's the wrong thing to do and it's scary.... it's not like we cheer when Peter slaps her around.

 

[Matt]

And to be fair- Harry deserved it (although slightly off topic)- if you watch carefully in the new preview...

Spoiler

Harry throws the pumpkin bomb at Peter. Peter catches it and throws it back at Harry... so, Harry had it coming-

And yeah, Peter does slap MJ around but he knows it's the wrong thing to do and it's scary.... it's not like we cheer when Peter slaps her around.

You can justify it however you want, and I don't disagree with you..however many soccer moms will.

 

[Tempest19]

Lol.

KID: Mom, can I see Spider-Man...

MOM: No!

KID: Why not?! Eddie got to see Spider-Man!

MOM:Becuase that movie is evil, Peter, that movie is evil!

Lol..... dude, I don't see that happening- there have been MANY movies when a guy accidentally hits a girl, and children are able to see it- none come to mind- but, I know I have seen some violence before. And it's not like their celebrating it....

The "Flander family" (Simpsons reference) will stay away... but others? I saw a father bring a five or six year old in to watch 300.

 

[Matt]

Lol.

KID: Mom, can I see Spider-Man...

MOM: No!

KID: Why not?! Eddie got to see Spider-Man!

MOM:Becuase that movie is evil, Peter, that movie is evil!

Lol..... dude, I don't see that happening- there have been MANY movies when a guy accidentally hits a girl, and children are able to see it- none come to mind- but, I know I have seen some violence before. And it's not like their celebrating it....

The "Flander family" (Simpsons reference) will stay away... but others? I saw a father bring a five or six year old in to watch 300.

You make it sound as though Peter falls and his fist lands in Mary Jane's face. They are having a heated argument and he hits her. If you really think that scene is not going to generate bad press and drive some parents away you are sorely mistaken.

 

[Tempest19]

I just don't think it's that bad... yeah, he hits her- big deal. I'm pretty sure a guy has even done worse than that to a woman on national television... Heroes had a pretty graphic rape scene and I didn't see the buzz going crazy that they had a graphic rape scene on network television.

So, is it going to hold some parents away? Yes. But, it's a heated argument- one hit "oh my god, what did I do! Must be this suit" so- the moral is "hitting women is bad and evil." That's a good lesson... even though it's portrayed graphically.

It's not like their gloryifying the scene and saying "good! Now kids, hit and harrass women!" Their doing the exact opposite. Symbiote Peter is supposed to be a bad guy- I think we might even be scared at him during some points of the film and we're supposed to be... because the good guy becomes the bad guy because of the symbiote- a bad guy has hit women TONS of times in the past.

So is it going to effect some parents? Yes. But, in context- a hero is not doing these things, the "villain" is. So it's not portrayed as good- it's portrayed as something only an evil and scary villain would do. And that's, more or less, what the symbiote turns Peter into.

But, as I said- worse has happened on network television.

Heroes is a prime example- a very brutal near rape scene- a whole story line actually devoted to that rape and how that rape initially effected Claire.

But, I didn't see anywhere or anyone make sure a big deal over that-

It will have an impact. Yeah, but I don't see why it would have a big one when it's less than what they show on TV and says that doing so is bad.

 

[Erzengel]

In the end, it won't matter what any of us has to say. Internet community counts about what 10-15% of grossing? And maybe I'm even being generous. It will be what appeals the most despite what the quality of the movie is.

 

[Matt]

I just don't think it's that bad... yeah, he hits her- big deal. I'm pretty sure a guy has even done worse than that to a woman on national television... Heroes had a pretty graphic rape scene and I didn't see the buzz going crazy that they had a graphic rape scene on network television.

So, is it going to hold some parents away? Yes. But, it's a heated argument- one hit "oh my god, what did I do! Must be this suit" so- the moral is "hitting women is bad and evil." That's a good lesson... even though it's portrayed graphically.

It's not like their gloryifying the scene and saying "good! Now kids, hit and harrass women!" Their doing the exact opposite. Symbiote Peter is supposed to be a bad guy- I think we might even be scared at him during some points of the film and we're supposed to be... because the good guy becomes the bad guy because of the symbiote- a bad guy has hit women TONS of times in the past.

So is it going to effect some parents? Yes. But, in context- a hero is not doing these things, the "villain" is. So it's not portrayed as good- it's portrayed as something only an evil and scary villain would do. And that's, more or less, what the symbiote turns Peter into.

But, as I said- worse has happened on network television.

Heroes is a prime example- a very brutal near rape scene- a whole story line actually devoted to that rape and how that rape initially effected Claire.

But, I didn't see anywhere or anyone make sure a big deal over that-

It will have an impact. Yeah, but I don't see why it would have a big one when it's less than what they show on TV and says that doing so is bad.

Heros is rated TV 14 isn't it? You can't compare an adult show that plays at 9 pm to a movie that is dependent on a child audience. Furthermore, it wasn't the hero doing the raping, so your point is moot.