BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[Val_Zod]

It'll be a factor. I didn't say how much because no one knows. But previous installments DO have an effect based on how people liked what came before. You saying it'll be negligable is just as much an assumption as me saying it'll be significant in it's effect. Truth is we just don't know what extent it'll be to.

And every single one of the phase 1 films had at least a solid majority of critics behind it and the sales also attested to consumers agreeing with them for the most part. None of them were split like MoS or TASM2(which are two that are very comparable).

MoS had a not good 2.25X multiplier for a reason. That's a notably worse multiplier than any MCU film ever had.

Yes, which is not exclusively due to a divisve word of Mouth. No Marvel film has had a worse release than MOS, which saw itself stuck by 2 large films. World War Z, which appealed to the blockbuster crowd, and Monsters University which attracted the families. BvS has the exact opposite situation, with virtually nothing opening against it.

 

[Black Narcissus]

800 billion dollars.

 

[dalonewolf]

Yes, which is not exclusively due to a divisve word of Mouth. No Marvel film has had a worse release than MOS, which saw itself stucked by 2 large films. World War Z, which appealed to the blockbuster crowd, and Monsters University. BvS has the exact opposite situation, with virtually nothing opening against it.

I just don't get way they fail to ignore that
It's like whatever can justify something they will have it in thier heads to day (that don count) but will still try and argue thier point
Instead of doING the fair and unbiased thing and say (your right I forget about that)
This is who you can figure out trolls and fan boys we are all here to discuss one movie not downplay the pervious flim mam of steel was 2013 this is 2015 and people can't seem to let it go

 

[JKKS085]

Yes, which is not exclusively due to a divisve word of Mouth. No Marvel film has had a worse release than MOS, which saw itself stuck by 2 large films. World War Z, which appealed to the blockbuster crowd, and Monsters University which attracted the families. BvS has the exact opposite situation, with virtually nothing opening against it.

Absolutely. Competition is a factor, especially when a movie faces better received new releases. Jurassic World had a record breaking second week-end against a 90M+ opener (Inside Out) after incredible week days.
We've been there a few times in several box office related threads already. There is virtually no such thing as a safe spot if your film doesn't appeal to people for whatever reason (poor marketing, mediocre word of mouth ...). If BvS turns out to be a dud or if the advertising campaign doesn't spark people's interest (which I don't think will happen just to be clear, especially the latter) that March spot, that many people assume is a safe spot, is going to turn into a kill box.
And then biased fanboys will blame WB for releasing the film outside of the Summer season and conveniently ignore other parameters.

 

[dalonewolf]

Absolutely. Competition is a factor, especially when a movie faces better received new releases. Jurassic World had a record breaking second week-end against a 90M+ opener (Inside Out) after incredible week days.
We've been there a few times in several box office related threads already. There is virtually no such thing as a safe spot if your film doesn't appeal to people for whatever reason (poor marketing, mediocre word of mouth ...). If BvS turns out to be a dud or if the advertising campaign doesn't spark people's interest (which I don't think will happen just to be clear, especially the latter) that March spot, that many people assume is a safe spot, is going to turn into a kill box.
And then biased fanboys will blame WB for releasing the film outside of the Summer season and conveniently ignore other parameters.

Lol I guess you haven't been paying attention to the news
People are already aware of bvs in fact if it was to drop out of the blue in 2 weeks it will still have an o.w of 180 mil aND go on to do dark knight numbers

 

[Val_Zod]

Absolutely. Competition is a factor, especially when a movie faces better received new releases. Jurassic World had a record breaking second week-end against a 90M+ opener (Inside Out) after incredible week days.
We've been there a few times in several box office related threads already. There is virtually no such thing as a safe spot if your film doesn't appeal to people for whatever reason (poor marketing, mediocre word of mouth ...). If BvS turns out to be a dud or if the advertising campaign doesn't spark people's interest (which I don't think will happen just to be clear, especially the latter) that March spot, that many people assume is a safe spot, is going to turn into a kill box.
And then biased fanboys will blame WB for releasing the film outside of the Summer season and conveniently ignore other parameters.

I am not denying Inside Out and Jurassic World were better received (Though personally, I liked MOS more than Jurassic World), but to pin all of the fault on MOS word of mouth is ludicrous, as that film still had to keep audience interest between 2 other big releases.. The event factor of BvS, and it being the only blockbuster for weeks will propel it pretty far, though of course not as much it would if it were better received. I wouldn't be shocked if that was part of the reason Jurassic World played so strong, as that film was far from a critical masterpiece.

 

[kedrell]

I forget you all look over marvels hiccups
If you think marvel only wanted age of ultron to gross 460 mil dom
Your delusional
Truth is truth .
I'm not trying to down play age of ultron
But in my non-bias opinion
Age of ultron should have been a domestic monster nothing short of 500dom

Of course they always want as much as possible. And I agree that AoU should most likely have netted at least $500m. But even with it failing to get there basic math still says it's ending with a 2.4X multiplier(another $2m-$3m or so will see it there by the end of it's run). Facts are stubborn things.

 

[Marvin]

I am not denying Inside Out and Jurassic World were better received (Though personally, I liked MOS more than Jurassic World), but to pin all of the fault on MOS word of mouth is ludicrous, as that film still had to keep audience interest between 2 other big releases.. The event factor of BvS, and it being the only blockbuster for weeks will propel it pretty far, though of course not as much it would if it were better received. I wouldn't be shocked if that was part of the reason Jurassic World played so strong, as that film was far from a critical masterpiece.

An interesting prospect that of asserting MOS would have done better against comp if it was in fact better. The issue however rises when one insists on comparing things like it's 'multiplier' against those of films that had no such comp. Even JW's 90mill comp in week 2 is a fraction of the amount and diversity mos' faced in week two.
The closest mcu film circumstance wise would probably be TFA, and even that was a different scenario.
Not many films cbms(coming off of crap no less) get as close to 300mill as mos, multipliers or not that speaks volumes imo.

 

[kedrell]

Yes, which is not exclusively due to a divisve word of Mouth. No Marvel film has had a worse release than MOS, which saw itself stuck by 2 large films. World War Z, which appealed to the blockbuster crowd, and Monsters University which attracted the families. BvS has the exact opposite situation, with virtually nothing opening against it.

2011's Captain America: The First Avenger would bet to differ. I don't think any other superhero film ever has been squeezed as much by competition all around it. And it still managed a 2.7X multiplier. Granted, it opened to about half as much as MoS and the lower a movie opens the easier it is to have better legs...usually. But MoS had a big advantage in name recognition and built in fan base for it's main character as opposed to TFA.

 

[JKKS085]

I am not denying Inside Out and Jurassic World were better received (Though personally, I liked MOS more than Jurassic World), but to pin all of the fault on MOS word of mouth is ludicrous, as that film still had to keep audience interest between 2 other big releases.. The event factor of BvS, and it being the only blockbuster for weeks will propel it pretty far, though of course not as much it would if it were better received.

Exactly MoS had to keep audience interested and it didn't. That's precisely my point. And besides the second week end numbers, had it been better received it would have recovered afterwards (like Inside Out is going to next week end after Minions, or like Days of Future Past last year which developped excellent later legs despite the competition). The mediocre multiplier is pretty clear on that aspect.

At this point I don't feel like making any prediction regarding the opening week end. I am not sure how the genre is being perceived by the general audience, and how it's going to be perceived 9 months from now. Maybe AoU's number are actually the first sign of some sort of superhero fatigue I don't know. I don't know how MoS' lukewarm reception will affect this movie if at all. I just don't feel like saying that any number is a lock for that film so far from its release. Just like I don't feel like saying that there is absolutely no competition while there is a Divergent movie set to open a week before. And maybe people will feel like saving their money to see Captain America fight Iron Man a month later. Who would have thought that people would be more inclined to see another Fast and Furious sequel this year than a new Avengers film ? Or that the passable sequel to a poorly received third film in a 22 years old franchise would set the box office on fire ? There are just too many variables.

Just to say, and I'm going to stop my incoherent babbling there, that even with a big opening (175M+ which I don't think is a given in March) if it follows MoS footsteps and fails to reach "big event" numbers (400M+ dom) it can very well turn out to be a disappointment. And since international audiences still have to show that they have a massive interest in DC properties I'd be extremely cautious with any prediction using the word "lock", especially those based on a couple of trailers that most of the general audiences has yet to see.

 

[dalonewolf]

2011's Captain America: The First Avenger would bet to differ. I don't think any other superhero film ever has been squeezed as much by competition all around it. And it still managed a 2.7X multiplier. Granted, it opened to about half as much as MoS and the lower a movie opens the easier it is to have better legs...usually. But MoS had a big advantage in name recognition and built in fan base for it's main character as opposed to TFA.

Did captain america face a 66mil and a 82mil opener???
Most movies only face one major release t he following week not 2
And both movies was gonna be big regardless if man of steel was well receive or not
And by the way man of steel was only split on rotten tomatoes as far as the user score and the ign and all other scores regarding the general public was a 7.2 or above.
Show me one score for the G.a that wasn't positive
Other than your next door marvel fan claiming they didn't like it or your typical reeves fan who can get over a dwas franchise

 

[dalonewolf]

Exactly MoS had to keep audience interested and it didn't. That's precisely my point. And besides the second week end numbers, had it been better received it would have recovered afterwards (like Inside Out is going to next week end after Minions, or like Days of Future Past last year which developped excellent later legs despite the competition). The mediocre multiplier is pretty clear on that aspect.

At this point I don't feel like making any prediction regarding the opening week end. I am not sure how the genre is being perceived by the general audience, and how it's going to be perceived 9 months from now. Maybe AoU's number are actually the first sign of some sort of superhero fatigue I don't know. I don't know how MoS' lukewarm reception will affect this movie if at all. I just don't feel like saying that any number is a lock for that film so far from its release. Just like I don't feel like saying that there is absolutely no competition while there is a Divergent movie set to open a week before. And maybe people will feel like saving their money to see Captain America fight Iron Man a month later. Who would have thought that people would be more inclined to see another Fast and Furious sequel this year than a new Avengers film ? Or that the passable sequel to a poorly received third film in a 22 years old franchise would set the box office on fire ? There are just too many variables.

Just to say, and I'm going to stop my incoherent babbling there, that even with a big opening (175M+ which I don't think is a given in March) if it follows MoS footsteps and fails to reach "big event" numbers (400M+ dom) it can very well turn out to be a disappointment. And since international audiences still have to show that they have a massive interest in DC properties I'd be extremely cautious with any prediction using the word "lock", especially those based on a couple of trailers that most of the general audiences has yet to see.

Let me guess ,Civil war is gonna make more than bvs and age of ultron right?
I ask because that's seems to be what you all are hoping for (marvel fans ) so civil war can some how redeem what age of ultron lost out on

 

[JKKS085]

Let me guess ,Civil war is gonna make more than bvs and age of ultron right?
I ask because that's seems to be what you all are hoping for (marvel fans ) so civil war can some how redeem what age of ultron lost out on

Could you please stop putting words in my mouth or wrongfully labelling me. That would be very nice of you. Thank you.

 

[dalonewolf]

Could you please stop putting words in my mouth or wrongfully labelling me. That would be very nice of you. Thank you.

Well get back to the title of the thread
If your not here to predict bvs numbers than why are you here????
Get my drift

 

[JKKS085]

Well get back to the title of the thread
If your not here to predict bvs numbers than why are you here????
Get my drift

Not quite.
But if you think I am derailing the thread you are welcome to report it to the mods.

 

[Mister J]

Oy vey. Can we just get back to BvS projections and leave MoS, AoU, LMNOP, Naked Gun 2 1/2, etc. out of it?

 

[JKKS085]

LMNOP

Damn ! I want to see that movie now !

 

[Mister J]

Summer 2019.

Tagline: You Only Thought You Knew Them

 

[Iceman]

Naked Gun 44 1/4th would kill it right now.

 

[db85usa]

Wonder Woman will add a female audience to this film but will it be enough? I fear the tone of this movie will keep the families/children away thus taking a hit but we've waited 75+ years for this so... perhaps this could lead to droves of elderly people emptying out their social security paychecks? Lol.

All kidding aside, I think this movie has the potential to break records it will be exciting to see how the marketing goes but I think the trailer does imply that WB is OK with this film NOT being kid friendly at least we know they're not selling out entirely. Now, I did show the Suicide Squad trailer to my 9 year old who is a crazy Batman fan and he was trembling at the sight and sound of the Joker. He was literally shaking. He says he wants to see it because he loves the villains of the Batman universe but now I am second guessing this and will want to see Suicide Squad for myself first. This is the same kind of mentality some parents/families will/do have towards BvS. WB knows this movie will bring in tons of dough and there really is no limit and no telling how it will do up to this point. I do think a lot of people and I mean a lot -- want to see the 3 big superheroes under one roof for the first time ever.

 

[Aejej]

No way are families and children going to avoid BvS. Batman fandom is gargantuan. Superman, Batman, Wonder Woman, aka "the trinity" of DC. They're already in line.

The trailer blew everyone away, converted many a M****l purist, and we know that while we got a very nice taste, much, much more lurks within the context of the full experience, just like MoS.

Why should Ant-Man have a buffer zone when MoS faced off against both Monsters U. and WWZ, another big budget production tailored to fans of the ongoing zombie craze? I'll never understand why so many criticize MoS as being a failure when it also made another 100M on home video.

BvS will be a different story.

 

[dalonewolf]

By the time product placement ends for bvs
Wb/dc will have a free movie
Because it will improve on MoS product placement of 170 I'm thinking about 230-250 for sure

 

[dalonewolf]

Of course they always want as much as possible. And I agree that AoU should most likely have netted at least $500m. But even with it failing to get there basic math still says it's ending with a 2.4X multiplier(another $2m-$3m or so will see it there by the end of it's run). Facts are stubborn things.

And how many box office openers above 30mil dI'd it face in its second weekend??
If Jurrasic world opened a week after age of ultron do you really think it would have ever crossed the 400 dom mark?
I mean seriously because I don't see any competition around age of ultron release that would have damaged it dom take

 

[HaplessHenchman]

Wonder Woman will add a female audience to this film but will it be enough? I fear the tone of this movie will keep the families/children away thus taking a hit but we've waited 75+ years for this so... perhaps this could lead to droves of elderly people emptying out their social security paychecks? Lol.

All kidding aside, I think this movie has the potential to break records it will be exciting to see how the marketing goes but I think the trailer does imply that WB is OK with this film NOT being kid friendly at least we know they're not selling out entirely. Now, I did show the Suicide Squad trailer to my 9 year old who is a crazy Batman fan and he was trembling at the sight and sound of the Joker. He was literally shaking. He says he wants to see it because he loves the villains of the Batman universe but now I am second guessing this and will want to see Suicide Squad for myself first. This is the same kind of mentality some parents/families will/do have towards BvS. WB knows this movie will bring in tons of dough and there really is no limit and no telling how it will do up to this point. I do think a lot of people and I mean a lot -- want to see the 3 big superheroes under one roof for the first time ever.

I agree with your "family" take. When BM v SM comes out, I will have a 10 year old daughter and a 7 year old son. I still have not show them MOS because of the random cussing and the violence and I will not show them BM v SM either until I have previewed it first.

How this affects the box office, I don't know. If it turns out to be acceptable for children, WB may be getting my money twice. If not, it will still appeal to adults and may go gangbusters anyway.

 

[antoineflemming]

I agree with your "family" take. When BM v SM comes out, I will have a 10 year old daughter and a 7 year old son. I still have not show them MOS because of the random cussing and the violence and I will not show them BM v SM either until I have previewed it first.

How this affects the box office, I don't know. If it turns out to be acceptable for children, WB may be getting my money twice. If not, it will still appeal to adults and may go gangbusters anyway.

With all due respect, kids absolutely will be going to see BvS, as they did with Man of Steel. Language is not an issue for most families. Would my parents have taken me to see films with language and violence when I was 7 or 10? No. But, just like with the Marvel and Fox and even Sony cbms, parents overwhelmingly will take their kids to see these movies. In the 21st century society, this is considered acceptable for children. WB will not be losing money because of the language and violence.