BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 1

[rockandrollsoul]

Do you think that Avengers: AoU's OW coming in well under the original's OW bodes well or poorly (or neither) for BvS's OW?

Neither. Word of mouth wasn't as good for AoU as it was for the original.

 

[The Shape]

Do you think that Avengers: AoU's OW coming in well under the original's OW bodes well or poorly (or neither) for BvS's OW?

I don't think it bodes poorly for BvS. Rather, I think it will now be much easier for BvS to have the biggest opening weekend of all time.

 

[xxxxxx29]

Yeah, AOU's legs won't be as good as the Avengers. And its OW has nothing to do with how Batman v Superman performs.

I'm thinking about a 185m OW for BvS at the moment.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Yeah, AOU's legs won't be as good as the Avengers. And its OW has nothing to do with how Batman v Superman performs.

I'm thinking about a 185m OW for BvS at the moment.

Bad word of mouth along with the fight hurt the Avengers. I think around $150 for BvS.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Do you think that Avengers: AoU's OW coming in well under the original's OW bodes well or poorly (or neither) for BvS's OW?

Not at all. It could be a bit easier for it to get the highest opening of all time now though. It's going to absolutely pass Man of Steel's opening weekend for sure though.

 

[Marvin]

I think with all the talk of WW growth and china in particular being mentioned as to how AOU has a shot at still surpassing the prior film even if it misses both checkmarks domestically, there shouldn't be as much talk of if BvS can hit a billion as has plagued this thread from the jump.
1 bill seems pretty certain this time. It's domestic performance is really what's going to be hard to tie down imo.

 

[antoineflemming]

Not at all. It could be a bit easier for it to get the highest opening of all time now though. It's going to absolutely pass Man of Steel's opening weekend for sure though.

Why should its box office be compared to MOS though?

 

[ConnorKon-El]

I think with all the talk of WW growth and china in particular being mentioned as to how AOU has a shot at still surpassing the prior film even if it misses both checkmarks domestically, there shouldn't be as much talk of if BvS can hit a billion as has plagued this thread from the jump.
1 bill seems pretty certain this time. It's domestic performance is really what's going to be hard to tie down imo.

Agreed.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think the success of DC super-heroes overseas is a huge factor. Overseas box office is becoming a bigger and bigger factor.

The highest grossing overseas total for any DC superhero property OS was TDKR which made $636 million by comparison the most recent Fast and Furious just did 1.1 billion on purely overseas totals again not even counting domestic. The last avengers made $895.2 million overseas while MoS only brought in 377 million.

 

[Sharkboy]

Depends on the rewatchability, look at all those films with high OW's, these films have huge rewatch appeal, no matter how good this film is, if it's a bit too "heavy" or "dense" I think the OW will suffer, at this point I'm not too invested in folowing BO numbers, as long as this film makes good bank enough to justify cranking out sequels with higher budgets then I'm happy.

It's clear at this point, the DCCU will be the alternative, the pepsi, the sega to marvel's coke and nintendo. There will be things that the DCCU does that will rub the GA the wrong way but it will endear itself further to those already on board so yeah...I'm not entirely sure WB/DC will ever get Avengers numbers unless they give us a Batman solo film with Joker again.

 

[GreenKToo]

If BvS is as good as we all hope it is, then Avengers numbers are very doable.
If it's not, then it won't reach those numbers. It's that simple. There is nothing complicated about it at all.

You have Batman and Supes on the screen together for the very first time, throw in W.W., A.M., cyborg, and maybe the flash, and you have a recipe for success, BUT, that success all depends on how well the chef mixes and cooks it up.

That said, I think ( at least ) a 160/170 mill ow is in the bag. Folks will be curious.
From there it all depends on wom. The sky is the limit if its good.

 

[Marvin]

Sadly I think if the film suffers the same flaws as AOU(as far as pacing and bloatedness) then the 'critics' will be out for blood. If it wants good scores it can't expect any sort of free pass.

Depends on the rewatchability, look at all those films with high OW's, these films have huge rewatch appeal, no matter how good this film is, if it's a bit too "heavy" or "dense" I think the OW will suffer, at this point I'm not too invested in folowing BO numbers, as long as this film makes good bank enough to justify cranking out sequels with higher budgets then I'm happy.

It's clear at this point, the DCCU will be the alternative, the pepsi, the sega to marvel's coke and nintendo. There will be things that the DCCU does that will rub the GA the wrong way but it will endear itself further to those already on board so yeah...I'm not entirely sure WB/DC will ever get Avengers numbers unless they give us a Batman solo film with Joker again.

I personally think one of the big tickets to marvels success is the implementation of novelty. You look at their top three money making movies(two avengers and ironman3) and there is a clear through line of leaning on novelty event status(or directly following it up). If dc wants this kinda money they simply need to lean on it as well as it seems they are gearing up to do so. That they could achieve what they did with TDKT without such efforts speaks volumes as to their actual starting point brand wise.
That being said, after F7, I'm starting to think the death of a key actor played a larger role in some of that success than some would admit. Both in that scenario and in this new one.
I think WB going full in with this cross over approach and cameos and selling momentum and forced relevance is going to have them swimming in money. These past few weeks alone have shown how much more relevance they can lend to their projects by playing the shared universe game marvel has always been playing, it's not just dead show, it's batflecks dead show which means it's mos' dead shot... Alot more relevant than if they had simply made a MOS stand alone sequel(no shared universe announcement) and a SS movie that was also simply stand alone. To rebut your point, I think if they want avengers money they simply need to keep tapping into this novelty approach.

As for your other point about overseas money. I think it's complicated but also very simple. Audiences over there just need to be sold on something that speaks to their what's relevant over there. You'll noticed outside of James Cameron and Inception, few non sequels are actually doing gang busters over seas, it's almost always big sequels. If you aren't a part of something or have giant robots then you kinda have to start from scratch but once you get going then it's on, they will carry you even past your domestic relevance. As seen with Pirates.

I do think certain types of movies do play better in certain regions though, especially if you can speak to their culture and cinematic history. Gentleman Spy and Wizards have big audiences in the UK. Robots, Cars, choreo and a few other things in Asia.
Whatever it was Disney put into frozen cracked South Korea, big time.
BvS and Will Smith and a few other things now that the ball is rolling is probably going to yield some big intl returns imo.

I also think mad max is going to make a killing in China.

 

[Juha Bach]

I think AOU number shows that novelty factor should not be underestimated. If BvS is great, compound that with the novelty factor and iconic status of both characters then it has a shot at breaking the OW record.

 

[hafizbat]

Depends on the rewatchability, look at all those films with high OW's, these films have huge rewatch appeal, no matter how good this film is, if it's a bit too "heavy" or "dense" I think the OW will suffer, at this point I'm not too invested in folowing BO numbers, as long as this film makes good bank enough to justify cranking out sequels with higher budgets then I'm happy.

It's clear at this point, the DCCU will be the alternative, the pepsi, the sega to marvel's coke and nintendo. There will be things that the DCCU does that will rub the GA the wrong way but it will endear itself further to those already on board so yeah...I'm not entirely sure WB/DC will ever get Avengers numbers unless they give us a Batman solo film with Joker again.

I agree with this. I'll be quite surprised if BvS comes close to Avengers numbers. AoU itself is coming in lower and it's primarily due to the movie being more dense and less fist-pumping than The Avengers, although the fight definitely hurt the OW.

BvS is looking to be a movie that will make you think rather than smile with glee, so I'm fairly certain it won't be breaking any records.

 

[Marvin]

It's odd how cultural competition of sorts, the fight the game..etc are being heavily credited for AOU not reaching it's benchmark of almost 20mill more US dollars. Even if the fight in question lasted about the duration of one or two showings at an ungodly hour. Yet various people can't acknowledge the idea that what MOS faced in it's second weekend took away enough of it's potential gross to have it's drop off percentage bumped up even 4 units. I mean AOU was about 20mill shy of a new record and people can find it in their discussions to figure even 10 or million of MOS's potential was shaved off due to an entire weekend of two other massive performing films culminating in almost 150mill combined.
I suppose the question is how much of hat 150 could have landed in mos' pocket in that second weekend. The following weeks I won't even bother.

We play a funny game when it comes to acknowledging competition. Luckily for BvS it's seemingly got clear skies. AOU seems to as well, unless the next three movies really kick as much butt as they should and capture the audiences imagination.

Avoiding comp is the name of the game imo.

 

[InJustice]

Rewatchability is a very esoteric term with regards to box office calculations. Mainly because not everyone will rewatch a movie they've already seen, nor spend the money to watch it knowing that they can pirate it after or buy the DVD.

 

[fake]

It's odd how cultural competition of sorts, the fight the game..etc are being heavily credited for AOU not reaching it's benchmark of almost 20mill more US dollars. Even if the fight in question lasted about the duration of one or two showings at an ungodly hour. Yet various people can't acknowledge the idea that what MOS faced in it's second weekend took away enough of it's potential gross to have it's drop off percentage bumped up even 4 units. I mean AOU was about 20mill shy of a new record and people can find it in their discussions to figure even 10 or million of MOS's potential was shaved off due to an entire weekend of two other massive performing films culminating in almost 150mill combined.
I suppose the question is how much of hat 150 could have landed in mos' pocket in that second weekend. The following weeks I won't even bother.

We play a funny game when it comes to acknowledging competition. Luckily for BvS it's seemingly got clear skies. AOU seems to as well, unless the next three movies really kick as much butt as they should and capture the audiences imagination.

Avoiding comp is the name of the game imo.

I know this is like feeding the DC/Marvel fan-war, but I was kind of happy AoU neither broke 200M nor the OW record. I don't think the forums or twitter were ready for the gloating and DC-baiting that would have followed.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

I know this is like feeding the DC/Marvel fan-war, but I was kind of happy AoU neither broke 200M nor the OW record. I don't think the forums or twitter were ready for the gloating and DC-baiting that would have followed.

Pretty much how I feel as well.

 

[Jekecy]

I know this is like feeding the DC/Marvel fan-war, but I was kind of happy AoU neither broke 200M nor the OW record. I don't think the forums or twitter were ready for the gloating and DC-baiting that would have followed.

The top 3 weekend openings of all time are Marvel films. AoU included. Anyone trying to spin this negatively for them is reaching hard.

 

[fake]

The top 3 weekend openings of all time are Marvel films. AoU included. Anyone trying to spin this negatively for them is reaching hard.

Disney spun it negatively. No one asked them to say that the record was a done deal on Friday morning. The box office forums have been really entertaining this weekend thanks mainly to the meltdowns by the really crazy Marvel fans. The moment it was clear the record nor 200M was going down, the place went crazy.

 

[TheNextNolan22]

Disney spun it negatively. No one asked them to say that the record was a done deal on Friday morning. The box office forums have been really entertaining this weekend thanks mainly to the meltdowns by the really crazy Marvel fans. The moment it was clear the record nor 200M was going down, the place went crazy.

Oh God, just seeing some of the reactions on Tumblr from people calling this "sub-par"...... The 2nd biggest opening of all time is nothing to scoff at. Between that, the heated debates around Black Widow's characterization, and Whedon getting bullied off of Twitter....Yeah, it's a warzone in the MCU fandom and I'm all like....Task Force X has assembled and I'm pumped as hell!!


Selfish DC fan, I know.


Anyways, I think BVS will do pretty well.

 

[fake]

Oh God, just seeing some of the reactions on Tumblr from people calling this "sub-par"...... The 2nd biggest opening of all time is nothing to scoff at. Between that, the heated debates around Black Widow's characterization, and Whedon getting bullied off of Twitter....Yeah, it's a warzone in the MCU fandom and I'm all like....Task Force X has assembled and I'm pumped as hell!!


Selfish DC fan, I know.


Anyways, I think BVS will do pretty well.

I'm not expecting BvS to come anywhere near this opening number, but here's the thing - literally no one is. However, in the case of AOU we had articles from Deadline, Hollywood Reporter, Variety, The Wrap, LA Times etc. saying that 220-230M opening weekend was pretty much a lock.

The box office analysts went a little crazy to be honest.

 

[Marvin]

The last two batman films did quite well in this regard, and without 3d(one of which had that shooting to contend with). Steady growth from MOS's own un diffused weekend, and you have something close to 130 imo...it's possible BvS will come at least somewhat close.
Furious 8 just did.

Anyways I think the only real negative to come out of the AOU performance is that 20mill is a lot and diminishing returns are what they are. A sign of something.
That being said it's still a big fat showing, and cbm fans should be happy because it's literally this success that motivates executives to invest in this stuff more and more. Top three openings are what now? That a big red sign in hollywood speak. CBM fans should do what we used to do in the early 2000's and celebrate all the success we can get.

That being said, some mcu fans do like to constantly bring up steady growth and critical this or that and simply a perfect thing happening only to every now and then to be reminded of the reality. Keeping people honest if you will.
That first movie get's so much praise around here and I mostly get it, I find it odd that this is the movie lots of fans are suggesting better? I get that with some of the 2014 showings but not this one personally.

Things are so incredibly skewed and inflated internationally(f7 was in 3d apparently?) that domestic totals are more what I use for comparative measures. The diff between TDK and TDKR for instance. TA and AOU will be interesting.

 

[The Batman]

I know this is like feeding the DC/Marvel fan-war, but I was kind of happy AoU neither broke 200M nor the OW record. I don't think the forums or twitter were ready for the gloating and DC-baiting that would have followed.

The only ones who wouldnt be ready are the kind of DC fanboys who care too much.

 

[Bruce Malone]

I'm not worried about the OW for this film the hype will be there and it will open pretty massive, it's the legs that would concern me.

MoS opened great especially for a reboot, but its legs were mediocre and it didn't even cross 300 million domestically.

This film is going to need great word of mouth period for the big numbers to come through.