BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - Part 12

[BluRayHiDef]

$850m

Damn. So much for joining the $1 billion club. On the bright side, at least the DCCU is doing better than the MCU was doing at the corresponding point in its run.

By the way, does anyone know the film's international gross for yesterday, Saturday, April 2nd?

 

[Spidey_62]

Estimated total gross for China for BvS put it at under $100M USD.

Which would be below

the total for Ant-Man in China.

Below the "flavor of the week, Ant-Man"?

 

[Stark Bauer]

We should know the estimates for Sunday by Sunday night. Actual weekend totals by Monday afternoon. It's going to be interesting to see if there is any discrepancies with the numbers after what happened last weekend with the premature $170M "record breaking" PR statement.

 

[FunkMiller]

We should know the estimates for Sunday by Sunday night. Actual weekend totals by Monday afternoon. It's going to be interesting to see if there is any discrepancies with the numbers after what happened last weekend with the premature $170M "record breaking" PR statement.

I'm sticking by 49mil second weekend.

I like to live dangerously.

 

[Raiden]

Ant-Man, like most Marvel films, is a formulaic action comedy that lacks the depth of both Man of Steel and Batman v Superman. I saw it and was bored by its third act because of how predictable it was (it was obvious that Ant-Man was going to find a way to reverse the process of infinitely shrinking and defeat the bad guy). On the other hand, did anyone expect Supes to kill Zod or Doomsday to kill Supes? DC's films are interesting and unpredictable; DC's films are better.

 

[psylockolussus]

Wow 70%! And there isn't even a new big movie coming out this weekend.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Wow 70%! And there isn't even a new big movie coming out this weekend.

Neither is there one next weekend. Jungle Book comes out in two weeks lol.

 

[The Endless]

Look at it this way, there is a possibility that an R rated, 58 million dollar budget DEADPOOL movie gives this a run for it's money.

THAT is a success story.

 

[jokesonm3]

So....

ETA on those Sunday Box Office numbers anyone?

 

[Maze]

To talk about, you know... box office. Where is this $700,000,000 coming from?

 

[Jaxon]

No idea. It made 587 million first seven days. Where is another 113 mil coming from in subsequent two?

Weekend cash is big cash

 

[FunkMiller]

Weekend cash is big cash

You think it's going to make 113 million WW second weekend?

 

[Maze]

It was a rough estimate of mine. I'm thinking $670,000,000 to be exact (~$50,000,000 domestic and ~$30,000,000 foreign).

Ok, thanks. It could do it yep.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Revising my estimates on how much it will make over the next 4 months domestically:

Week 1: $209 million
Week 2: $75 million (-64%)
Week 3: $36.75 million (-51%)
Week 4: $15.44 million (-58%)
Week 5: $7.26 million (-53%)
Week 6: $3.63 million. (-50%)
Week 7: $1 million (-75%)
Weeks 8-16: $3 million


Grand Total: $351.1 million

(2.115 multiplier),
projected to finish 9th on the all time comic book to movie adaptations (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=comicbookadaptation.htm)

Green Lantern had a 2.19 multiplier

Best case scenario: $365 (2.2x) less than TDKR (will be ranked #5)
Worst case scenario: $330 (1.99x) more than MOS (will be ranked #9)
I find the truth usually lies in between, but it is certainly fascinating to see what unfolds!

That seems like a well thought out analysis and also convinces me that this is not gonna hit a billion, basically because I don't see OS hitting 600M, especially since the most anticipated Batman movie of all times TDKR made 636M worldwide

Comparing the opening weekends of TDKR and BVS in top foreign markets

                        TDKR               BvS
Australia                   15.6m             9.6m
Brazil                        6.2m              10.6m
Germany                   9.6m               6.9m
Italy                        5.09m              4.6m
Japan                       4.67m             3.2m
Mexico                     9.7m               12.2m
Russia                      8.3m                7.7m
South Korea              12.9m              8.4m
Spain                       4.3m                3.1m
UK                           22.4m              20.1m
Venezuela                 1.06m              0.12m
Norway                     1.4m                0.8m

Apart from the South American markets (Brazil and Mexico) it has opened about 25-30% lower in all markets, all European and Asian markets have opened lower, sometimes 40% lower

To what extent will the increased earnings in the expanding China Market (TDKR made 53m in China) and the South American market cover up for that, remains to be seen, but my guess is not by much given, given how its legs will be cut-off by upcoming blockbusters like "The Jungle Book' and 'Captain America: Civil war', while TDKR had the market to itself and any semblance of competition came from a heavily panned 'Total Recall' 14 days later and 'Expendables 2' 25 days later

Personally I see BvS's OS earnings to be about 20% lower that TDKR's 636m i.e 510m

So the final estimate
Domestic 352m
Overseas 510m
World Wide 862m

Maybe lucky enough to crawl to 900m, but 1 Billion seems like a long shot

 

[wobbly]

No idea. It made 587 million first seven days. Where is another 113 mil coming from in subsequent two?

Probably fall short of $700mil going by the numbers: Fridays Domestic is already added for that $587mil at box office Mojo, so add another $36mil Domestic over the full weekend = $623

Going by Fridays WW ($19mil and that isn't added yet afaik?), the international might top out at $70mil for the full weekend (could well be less as China has dropped it big time and its been dropping badly in other big markets too).

That would give a total of around $693 at the end of the 2nd weekend, assuming the overseas take isn't lower (which it might be).

 

[FunkMiller]

Probably fall short of $700mil going by the numbers: Fridays Domestic is already added for that $587mil at box office Mojo, so add another $36mil Domestic over the full weekend = $623

Going by Fridays WW ($19mil and that isn't added yet afaik?), the international might top out at $70mil for the full weekend (could well be less as China has dropped it big time and its been dropping badly in other big markets too).

That would give a total of around $693 at the end of the 2nd weekend, assuming the overseas take isn't lower (which it might be).

Gotcha. Fair play. I've got it more around 650 after Sunday myself, but that may be low balling it.

 

[Consona]

That's bull. IF it were a really great film that people wanted to see over and over again, it would have made at least 60/65 mill this weekend.
The BO don't lie. people may, but the money don't..

And I thought we've made some progress from money = quality argument.

 

[GreenKToo]

The quality doesn't matter if people don't wanna see repeat viewings. And thats whats hurting this, very little repeat business.

 

[Baneis8feettall]

The quality doesn't matter if people don't wanna see repeat viewings. And thats whats hurting this, very little repeat business.

In terms of box office i hope.

 

[Consona]

The quality doesn't matter if people don't wanna see repeat viewings. And thats whats hurting this, very little repeat business.

Yea, I can agree on this statement.

 

[Poni_Boy]

The quality doesn't matter if people don't wanna see repeat viewings. And thats whats hurting this, very little repeat business.

Bingo. That's why the dark, depressing, overlong movies aimed at winning Oscars don't cost $400 mil to release. Sit through it once, that's it. You didn't see many people rewatch 12 Years a Slave ya know

 

[daddydivine]

But is 850 really all that bad? I mean if you use the socery spell to calculate when a studio breaks even there are actually a good many superhero movies that just break even. Now of course we shouldn't settle. But many of you are treating this like John Carter or Waterworld. In the grand scheme of things its depressing but not turrible financially.

 

[wobbly]

Gotcha. Fair play. I've got it more around 650 after Sunday myself, but that may be low balling it.

I'd think the International weekend gross should take it over $650mil, but probably not enough for the $700mil. My own best guess (assuming the ww might fall lower than $70mil) would be around $680 to $685mil.

The steep drop isn't good news at all though, especially with no competition, and suggests the legs will be be poor both domestic and ww.

 

[FunkMiller]

But is 850 really all that bad? I mean if you use the socery spell to calculate when a studio breaks even there are actually a good many superhero movies that just break even. Now of course we shouldn't settle. But many of you are treating this like John Carter or Waterworld. In the grand scheme of things its depressing but not turrible financially.

For a movie starring the two greatest superheroes of all time, that cost $400 million to make? That's supposed to launch a cinematic universe to compete with Marvel?

It's apocalyptic.

 

[Poni_Boy]

But is 850 really all that bad?

Yes. It means the movie broke even. It mean the investment didn't pay off. It means they could have spent that money on something else that would have.