BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - Part 12

[TheVileOne]

It's still sort of crazy to me that even making this much money still isn't enough .

I think film budgets for these type of projects really kind of have gotten out of control.

I recall reading what Nolan got for Dark Knight Rises, and it was insane. However, that I can understand because it's Nolan and Dark Knight was almost like a prestige picture after it won an Oscar for Heath Ledger. I mean you had to get Nolan back to finish his trilogy.

And this, I can sort of get because it's two of their biggest franchise characters. However, I still think WB and DC were not careful enough with their money and what type of movie they were making. Oh well live and learn.

 

[Flint Marko]

“Who wrote this? Are they angry at someone??”

That should be a pull-quote on the blu-ray cover.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Just caught up on over 50+ pages lol.

Yep. Stuck in the old way. They need ticket sales. So give people incentive to see the movie,
since the movie itself isn't incentive enough. Spinning numbers only delays the truth

That is why i believe BvS is a fine case study in WOM prevailing over corporate spin tactics. The truth is revealed much quicker in the age of the internet.

Hah I'll try better then (how's that?)

Look I'm not an expert by any means. But I think I know this business pretty well. At least well enough to make the observations I do. $165 OW prediction and 70% second weekend drop. And that was after seeing the EC once. Only thing I overestimated was 65% RT score. When I talk about incentives and such I'm offering my opinions on what I feel will sell based on the industry I work in. Same goes for articles using skewed "facts" to make headlines. I've see it before.

Aaaand this is why I value your opinion. You seem to be something of an "industry insider" here. How many other posters here can say they were given the privilege of watching the EC before the movie released? How many can say they were once a RT critic? You have credentials.

That is why I Jean-Luc Picard facepalm when I read some of the responses to your posts trying to use doctored propaganda (WB PR pulling the strings behind the scenes) and metrics that aren't up to snuff (internet polls on a comic book movie website? REALLY?)

Originally Posted by samsnee
Theaters only keep movies in their theaters if people keep going. You don't make money showing to an empty theater. Additionally, as everyone else has said, there are no major markets left for this thing to open in to keep any momentum going.


Originally Posted by Poni_Boy
See: Jem and the Holograms

I dont get the example?

 

[Bruce Malone]

It's still sort of crazy to me that even making this much money still isn't enough .

I think film budgets for these type of projects really kind of have gotten out of control.

I recall reading what Nolan got for Dark Knight Rises, and it was insane. However, that I can understand because it's Nolan and Dark Knight was almost like a prestige picture after it won an Oscar for Heath Ledger. I mean you had to get Nolan back to finish his trilogy.

And this, I can sort of get because it's two of their biggest franchise characters. However, I still think WB and DC were not careful enough with their money and what type of movie they were making. Oh well live and learn.

Deadpool and its $58 million budget and over $700 million gross and counting is just laughing at all of this BvS box office drama now haha.

 

[AndrewGilkison]

The problems with BvS have nothing to do with the money they spent on it. By the time they started spending money on the actors and the special effects and the stunts it was too late because they are all working off a script and a story that sucks.

To bring it back to box office that is why this movie is having such a big drop and why its not doing Force Awakens money. Because these versions of Superman and Batman are not that likeable and there is no joy in the movie they are fighting each other in. There is no real compelling reason to see this movie more than once unless you are a really hardcore DC comics fan.

 

[Stark Bauer]

So we could be in store for a weekend actual of sub $50M AY CARAMBA

This was my weekend estimate (I made a calculation error, total was 59.3 not 49.3):

Revising my estimates I project off this projection lol (based off F7's numbers):

Friday: 18.5
Saturday: 25.5
Sunday: 15.3

Total: $59.3M (-69%) which would be leaning towards the worst case scenario.

If it continues that projected trend, it will finish with around $350-360M.

Considering it actually made 15.35 on Friday, a revised estimate would look more like this:

Friday 15.35
Saturday: 23.03
Sunday: 13.82

Total: $52.2M (-70%) which would be leaning towards the worst case scenario.

If it continues that projected trend, BvS will finish with around $350-360M.

 

[smashmode]

Only 2 movies with over 100 million OW had a 70% drop the 2nd weekend. twilight new moon at 70%. And Harry Potter deathly hollows pt 2 at 72%

Not good.

 

[johnboy3434]

So, I'm doing some heavy extrapolating, but at the current rate of underperformance, my calculations have BvS's final domestic gross at $285 million. Again, heavy extrapolation, so grain of salt and all.

Yeah, the forecast has it falling less like a rock and more like a crashing fighter jet. I think it's overly pessimistic, but then again I only have eight data points to work with, which is less than ideal for statistical modeling.

 

[Flint Marko]

I can't imagine what WB is going to do next. I didnt expect this to be a great weekend for BvS but the bottom fell out in a way that shocked me.

 

[harryoscop]

Elektra had a 68% drop...there are a few like the last Fantastic Four, Hulk 2003, and Green Lantern that were in the upper 60's as well...but I don't remember any 70% drops...

What. The. ****... Why is this movie doing so bad???

 

[Flint Marko]

It isn't a good movie, to put it bluntly. It seems that's the consensus.

 

[Bruce Malone]

What. The. ****... Why is this movie doing so bad???

Are you serious with that question? It's painfully obvious.

 

[smashmode]

So, I'm doing some heavy extrapolating, but at the current rate of underperformance, my calculations have BvS's final domestic gross at $285 million. Again, heavy extrapolation, so grain of salt and all.

Yeah, the forecast has it falling less like a rock and more like a crashing fighter jet. I think it's overly pessimistic, but then again I only have eight data points to work with, which is less than ideal for statistical modeling.

Don't the massive drops start to flatline a bit?

 

[johnboy3434]

Don't the massive drops start to flatline a bit?

And that's exactly why I think it's overly pessimistic. Problem is, I can't tell it to level off until I know how and when it's going to level off, which I won't know until it happens, and in the absence of that mitigating data it predicts a continuing freefall. So yeah, the prospects will definitely improve at least a little bit once we reach the "floor".

 

[smashmode]

And that's exactly why I think it's overly pessimistic. Problem is, I can't tell it to level off until I know how and when it's going to level off, which I won't know until it happens, and in the absence of that mitigating data it predicts a continuing freefall. So yeah, the prospects will definitely improve at least a little bit once we reach the "floor".

Good point, I think WB will estimate this at 50 mil, but I'm guessing actual might come a bit less than that

 

[Stark Bauer]

Revising my estimates on how much it will make over the next 4 months domestically:

Week 1: $209 million
Week 2: $75 million (-64%)
Week 3: $36.75 million (-51%)
Week 4: $15.44 million (-58%)
Week 5: $7.26 million (-53%)
Week 6: $3.63 million. (-50%)
Week 7: $1 million (-75%)
Weeks 8-16: $3 million


Grand Total: $351.1 million

(2.115 multiplier),
projected to finish 9th on the all time comic book to movie adaptations (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=comicbookadaptation.htm)

Green Lantern had a 2.19 multiplier

Best case scenario: $365 (2.2x) less than TDKR (will be ranked #5)
Worst case scenario: $330 (1.99x) more than MOS (will be ranked #9)
I find the truth usually lies in between, but it is certainly fascinating to see what unfolds!

 

[Logan0327]

How so?

they shoot April 11th

 

[Logan0327]

It isn't a good movie, to put it bluntly. It seems that's the consensus.

not even just that it is actually a boring movie which is worse

people go see super hero movies for escapism,to laugh,to cheer and jsut have fun

not a movie that has the pace of a snail and takes like 90 minutes for the title of the movie to come to fruition

 

[danoyse]

Deadpool and its $58 million budget and over $700 million gross and counting is just laughing at all of this BvS box office drama now haha.

Deadpool was still playing at the theater where we saw BvS tonight. Both me and my dad wished we’d seen that instead.

 

[jmc]

Deadpool is still estimated to take in another $3-4m.

 

[titansupes]

I still need to see Deadpool...

 

[Bruce Malone]

Deadpool is still estimated to take in another $3-4m.

I said this in the Doomsday BO thread, I think they are shedding theaters too quickly as they probably expected BvS to eat up their remaining profits but I don't think that's exactly the case anymore?

They should maybe slightly re-expand even?

 

[Logan0327]

Deadpool was still playing at the theater where we saw BvS tonight. Both me and my dad wished we’d seen that instead.

deadpool still has yet to open in japan aswell

 

[Stark Bauer]

A break down of a break down lol


Week 2: $75 million (-64%)

$50M over the Fri-Sun period
average of $6.25M per day thru Mon-Thu

 

[Stark Bauer]

I still need to see Deadpool...

Funniest most irreverent CBM of all time. It's a MUST see.

I predicted based off the OW of BvS that there was a chance it will be a neck and neck race between DP ad BvS for $360M. I'm sticking with that prediction.