BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[parkerpete]

Publicly they will make the most of it. They have to in fairness. Standard operating procedure.

Behind closed doors will be another matter, and no, they will not be happy if it only makes a minor profit. No-one invests years of time & effort into something and is happy with a minimal ROI. That this was set to be the glorious foundation for their expanded universe (and ensure mega $$$) is another headache they won't be overjoyed with. Not a good start at all.

Yeah, remember this film shattered opening weekend records because the audience was there to make it a global phenomenon. And then people saw the movie and the figures tanked.

This film did more harm to the DC cinematic brand than not releasing a movie at all! Because they already capitalized on the opening-weekend novelty of Bats, Supes, and WW on the screen... it was the greatest promotional opportunity of all time to advertise this new cinematic universe, and they whiffed. You can't go back to that well again.

From now on, people are going to be much more wary, and DC can't rely on big opening figures anymore. I know of several comic fans who waited on seeing BvS because they disliked Snyder's 'vision' in MoS and wanted assurances from good reviews. That segment of the fan population has probably doubled since MoS came out, and that's not even taking into account the GA.

The box office is nearly irrelevant when you see a trend in which the films are LOSING fans instead of attracting them, and weakening the draw of the brand. That simply can't continue. The same team that can only get a 10% return on a premise as critic-proof as BATMAN AND SUPERMAN TOGETHER, is almost guaranteed to lose them money on the next movie now that their 'vision' has become a known quantity and been rejected by so many filmgoers.

 

[Flint Marko]

No-one is going to buy into the JL hype this time around and they know it, and rival studios aren't going to be afraid to line up counter programming against it to the reception of both MoS and BvS.

I didn't even consider that. Yikes.

A lot of movies that are perceived as financially and critically successful barely break even or make any money at all. It all comes down to how much they have spent in stuff like marketing, for example.

Yes but in this case we know they spent an absurd amount of money for an absurdly underwhelming return. This should have had a billion dollar box office, no question. And as JMC pointed out they had a lot riding on this movie, not just in regards to DC properties, but for the company as a whole.

 

[Doctor Jones]

ASM 2 and BVS are both overstuffed sequels made by film makers with no vision trying their hardest to catch up to Marvel.
Actually saying Snyder doesn't have a vision may be incorrect, I think he has one but it's just ineffectual.

Funny how I was comparing this to ASM2 prior to this movie coming out. Just the same type of logic and mentality of behind the scenes and the types of people who were mostly supporting it and what they were arguing. It had all the same ingredients for failure. I feel like Ian Malcolm on this board.

The benefit of this film over ASM2 is that DC has an actual universe to draw from. The utter stupidity of the ASM films depended on the Spider-Man world. It's the only reason why WB is justified to continue on.

Similar box office drop off too and both will go down as being totally forgettable and terrible movies by the people who had to suffer through them as a majority.

 

[Kobra]

I didn't even consider that. Yikes.



Yes but in this case we know they spent an absurd amount of money for an absurdly underwhelming return. This should have had a billion dollar box office, no question. And as JMC pointed out they had a lot riding on this movie, not just in regards to DC properties, but for the company as a whole.

How much more did they spend vs MOS and other Marvel movies?

They will eventually get their money back and make a nice profit. These movies don't just make money with the BO. But the results are definitely not what they hoped for.

 

[Flint Marko]

How much more did they spend vs MOS and other Marvel movies?

They will eventually get their money back and make a nice profit. These movies don't just make money with the BO. But the results are definitely not what they hoped for.

How am I supposed to know what they spent?
Of course they'll eventually make a profit, but the fact remains that it won't be anywhere near expectations. Again, ASM 2 made Sony a nice profit as well.

 

[Kobra]

How am I supposed to know what they spent?
Of course they'll eventually make a profit, but the fact remains that it won't be anywhere near expectations. Again, ASM 2 made Sony a nice profit as well.

You tell me. How do you know how much they spent and how much they need to gross in order to make a profit? Those are all informations i'm not aware of, but a lot of people around here seem to be.

 

[parkerpete]

You tell me. How do you know how much they spent and how much they need to gross in order to make a profit? Those are all informations i'm not aware of, but a lot of people around here seem to be.

I'm sorry, but this PART 13 of an ongoing thread, and if you haven't heard of any of these figures, it's because you simply aren't interested in paying attention to anything that doesn't support your personal agenda.

Most industry analysts--due to several factors that I am not going to articulate to you, since you could easily find them if you had bothered to read any of this thread-- think that the absolute minimum that BvS has to make to break even is somewhere north of 800 million.

If you want an explanation for that number, please just go do some googling or something. We've talked about it AT LENGTH here.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I'm sorry, but this PART 13 of an ongoing thread, and if you haven't heard of any of these figures, you simply aren't interested in paying attention to anything that doesn't support your personal agenda

Most industry analysts--due to several factors that I am not going to articulate to you, since you could easily find them if you had bothered to read any of this thread-- think that the absolute minimum that BvS has to make to break even is somewhere north of 800 million.

If you want an explanation for that number, please just go do some googling or something. We've talked about it AT LENGTH here.

Beat me to it

 

[wobbly]

You tell me. How do you know how much they spent and how much they need to gross in order to make a profit? Those are all informations i'm not aware of, but a lot of people around here seem to be.

If you go back through the threads or just google for it, you can find analysts reports (guys paid to know this stuff inside out) estimating the break even for BVS is a minimum $800mil ww.

Yes, its an estimate, as only the WB bean counters will know for sure, but it's an informed one given by dudes with years of practice in this field.

EDIT: Beaten to it too, lol

 

[Flint Marko]

Thank you

 

[Kobra]

I'm sorry, but this PART 13 of an ongoing thread, and if you haven't heard of any of these figures, it's because you simply aren't interested in paying attention to anything that doesn't support your personal agenda.

Most industry analysts--due to several factors that I am not going to articulate to you, since you could easily find them if you had bothered to read any of this thread-- think that the absolute minimum that BvS has to make to break even is somewhere north of 800 million.

If you want an explanation for that number, please just go do some googling or something. We've talked about it AT LENGTH here.

Don't get so defensive. I'm just asking because i seriously don't know. I also don't know how accurate those analysts are, so whether or not i should take what they say as fact, is up for discussion.

 

[parkerpete]

Don't get so defensive. I'm just asking because i seriously don't know. I also don't know how accurate those analysts are, so whether or not i should take what they say as fact, is up for discussion.

Good point. If you have reason to doubt those analysts, please return when you have some evidence of why their numbers might be suspect, and I'm sure people would be happy to discuss it.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Don't get so defensive. I'm just asking because i seriously don't know. I also don't know how accurate those analysts are, so whether or not i should take what they say as fact, is up for discussion.

Dude, seriously? You come into this thread EVERY DAY to derail in and NOT talk about the box office. Every. Day. To complain about why some people don't like the movie. And negate facts. And argue and argue and argue. And NOW you want to figure out what everyone has been talking about for hundreds of pages and you expect people to NOT be frustrated with you? Google is your friend. Educate yourself.

 

[parkerpete]

yep. Having an opinion doesn't equal an agenda. It's just sharing a honestly held opinion.

we are on a box office thread. We are discussing data as it comes in and what it means for the movie. We are not just trading opinions.

and your opinions are not equal to all others just because you have them. Either bring in data and evidence to support your claims, or go start a blog

 

[wobbly]

Don't get so defensive. I'm just asking because i seriously don't know. I also don't know how accurate those analysts are, so whether or not i should take what they say as fact, is up for discussion.

You don't have to accept what they say is fact, because it isn't, its an estimate. You can at least assume though they they will be in the ballpark. They can't be exact for obvious reasons, but they are not gonna be far off either way.

Do consider these analysts are paid to do this: It's their job and one they have been doing for more than long enough for the uninformed to take their conclusions seriously.

 

[Gerontophobe]

So for some box office talk, where do you guys see this ranking for 2016, both domestically and WW?

Domestically, I could see it finishing behind Deadpool, Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, and Rogue One. Maybe Moana and Fantastic Beasts as well.

Internationally, I imagine Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, Rogue One, and Ice Age 5 may finish higher. Other notable films that might have an outside or very slim chance at beating it: Jungle Book, Alice, XMA, ID4, BFG, SS, Doctor Strange, Moana, and Passengers.

 

[parkerpete]

So for some box office talk, where do you guys see this ranking for 2016, both domestically and WW?

Domestically, I could see it finishing behind Deadpool, Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, and Rogue One. Maybe Moana and Fantastic Beasts as well.

Internationally, I imagine Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, Rogue One, and Ice Age 5 may finish higher. Other notable films that might have an outside or very slim chance at beating it: Jungle Book, Alice, XMA, ID4, BFG, SS, Doctor Strange, Moana, and Passengers.

I would put Jungle Book ahead of it. Just based on reviews and the few clips I've seen, I can say that I had ZERO interest in it but was instantly enchanted by what I've seen and heard. It also has huge cross-generational appeal and more potential OS than almost anything.

 

[Poni_Boy]

So for some box office talk, where do you guys see this ranking for 2016, both domestically and WW?

Domestically, I could see it finishing behind Deadpool, Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, and Rogue One. Maybe Moana and Fantastic Beasts as well.

Internationally, I imagine Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, Rogue One, and Ice Age 5 may finish higher. Other notable films that might have an outside or very slim chance at beating it: Jungle Book, Alice, XMA, ID4, BFG, SS, Doctor Strange, Moana, and Passengers.

Fantastic Beasts is a tricky one. Honestly will have to see it beforehand predicting BO expectations. It could very well be a BvS situation where the characters aren't what the majority of people/HP fanbase want. OR it could be WB's big hit of the year.

 

[jmc]

I didn't even consider that. Yikes.



Yes but in this case we know they spent an absurd amount of money for an absurdly underwhelming return. This should have had a billion dollar box office, no question. And as JMC pointed out they had a lot riding on this movie, not just in regards to DC properties, but for the company as a whole.

One comedy could easily take a good $20m off JL now if it went head to head. Tina Fey's last film managed to do that against Star Wars.

 

[Flint Marko]

Fantastic Beasts is a tricky one. Honestly will have to see it beforehand predicting BO expectations. It could very well be a BvS situation where the characters aren't what the majority of people/HP fanbase want

For what it's worth my girlfriend and her sister are both huge Harry Potter fans. Own all the books and the movies; she's even shown me her wand she had as a little kid. When asked about Fantastic Beasts, their response was "meh". Then again they're both in their 20's. Maybe younger HP fans will be on board, maybe they're in the minority, idk.
I'm sure it'll be a hit but I don't see it doing big numbers.

 

[wobbly]

One comedy could easily take a good $20m off JL now if it went head to head. Tina Fey's last film managed to do that against Star Wars.

Yeah, I don't think the other studios will be looking at DC films quite so cautiously next time round.

They gave this a wide berth as everyone assumed it would be a monster for weeks, not fizzle out by the 2nd weekend.

BVS has set the bridge on fire, they need SS to put it out, and WW to mend it.

 

[Poni_Boy]

For what it's worth my girlfriend and her sister are both huge Harry Potter fans. Own all the books and the movies; she's even shown me her wand she had as a little kid. When asked about Fantastic Beasts, their response was "meh". Then again they're both in their 20's. Maybe younger HP fans will be on board, maybe they're in the minority, idk.
I'm sure it'll be a hit but I don't see it doing big numbers.

I get what they're trying to do. More of the same but different and more "adult" but ehhhh we'll see if the BO reception is there. After this BvS stuff though WB needs a BIG financial win.

 

[Sithborg]

I will be so sad if C. Lee decides to lock this thread. Watching this movie's box office has been fascinating.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I get what they're trying to do. More of the same but different and more "adult" but ehhhh we'll see if the BO reception is there. After this BvS stuff though WB needs a BIG financial win.

Yeah, WB is looking increasingly franchise starved. BvS missing expectations makes the DCEU less shiny (at least until SS). FB is supposed to be one of there other key franchises, maybe not HP big but still tentpole-sized. Other than that, really all they have is LEGO.

 

[GreenKToo]

BvS will make a profit. Like it or not.
The problem is they have ruined the anticipation for JL for over half the folks who saw BvS.

Anywho, 25/30 mill this next weekend, 10/15 the next.