BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[db85usa]

BvS will make a profit. Like it or not.
The problem is they have ruined the anticipation for JL for over half the folks who saw BvS.

Anywho, 25/30 mill this next weekend, 10/15 the next.

I like your optimism but I don't see BvS pulling in $25-$30M in its 3rd weekend. The reviews killed this. I can't envision the film grossing beyond $22M this weekend. Low end will be $18M.

 

[Kanon]

I'm convinced BvS will take 2nd place next weekend. It's destiny

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I don't know what to expect for it. The original made $817M back in 1996, before major international market expansion as well as PLF and 3D adoption. Adjusting for inflation, it made over $600M domestically.

The best comparable title might be Jurassic World but I feel like that was an exception to the rule, namely that most very late sequels tend to do poorly. Granted, most of the examples we have are for films much smaller than ID4.

I wouldn't compare it to JW, because JP has the Spielberg nostalgia.

 

[DACrowe]

Only fanboys and CB enthusiasts would pay to sit in a movie that long that without any real previous cache built up.

These cuts are always for the fans. But it takes a certain type to actually want to see more of this kind of film. WB made the right decision in chopping it down. Otherwise, the movie would be on less screens and would be doing less business, especially if much of the extra scenes are more of Batman beating people to death while there are other cameos that only comic book fans will get.

 

[kalelvis]

There have been a lot of longer movies making good box office since the late 90s. I'm not comparing this movie to any of the classics that so many people love (Lotr, titanic, etc) but let's imagine that the UC is a superior film, even just getting it an equal or slightly higher RT score than mos. it would have much better legs. If titanic teaches us anything it is that 20m a week with super long legs still gets you bank....it just takes longer to get there. Of course adjusted for inflation it is ,ore accurate to say titanic teaches us that making 40 m a week....

 

[FilmNerdJamie]

So for some box office talk, where do you guys see this ranking for 2016, both domestically and WW?

Domestically, I could see it finishing behind Deadpool, Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, and Rogue One. Maybe Moana and Fantastic Beasts as well.

Internationally, I imagine Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, Rogue One, and Ice Age 5 may finish higher. Other notable films that might have an outside or very slim chance at beating it: Jungle Book, Alice, XMA, ID4, BFG, SS, Doctor Strange, Moana, and Passengers.

No question, Finding Dory on top.

Fantastic Beasts is a tricky one. Honestly will have to see it beforehand predicting BO expectations. It could very well be a BvS situation where the characters aren't what the majority of people/HP fanbase want. OR it could be WB's big hit of the year.

I remain unconvinced.

They want the nostalgia dollar when for that to kick in you need to get away from it for at least a decade. There hasn't been enough time passed since the films ended and Rowling, frankly, won't let it die either with every three months or so with, "You wanna know what happened to _______ after Deathly Hallows?" making headlines.

Most importantly, that is a Harry Potter film... without Harry Potter. Eddie Redmayne is a fine actor but he's not Daniel Radcliffe, that is to say we didn't grow up alongside him for a decade.

It'll open, of course, and make bank. But will it do the Potter average, a la $290M domestic and $900M worldwide? I... don't think so.

 

[MarvelFan]

in Japan, Batman v Superman has not got a good reception as well.... one of the aspect which i already stated that the tone is not gell with mainstream audience here....

But unfortunately BvS also opened at the same day as two most anticipated local movies: Ansatsu Kyositsu: Sotsugyo Ban (Assasination Classroom: Graduation) and Kamen Rider Ichigo (Masked Rider One).... the former is a movie based on popular manga among the teenager and the main cast is played by member of most popular boyband in Japan and the latter is a movie dedicated as part of 45th Anniversary of "Kamen Rider" which played by the original actor who played it since 1971. (In Japan, Kamen Rider has a bigger names than Batman and Superman)

So, with 2 lighthearted fun movies which more appeal with the mass audience here (the line up for Ansatsu Kyositsu is very packed in the past 2 weeks) as the main competition, Its hard to see BvS making a big hit here.

 

[Stark Bauer]

http://variety.com/2016/film/box-office/box-office-melissa-mccarthy-batman-v-superman-1201746025/

This is just hilarious...

Box Office Battle this weekend: Batman v Superman VS. The Boss


I'm predicting


1) The Boss: $24M
2) Batman v Superman: $18M (-65%)
3) Zootopia: $15M

 

[Lily Adler]

Makes Batfleck's threat to Kimmel almost meaningless.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Here's my updated domestic model for the rest of the week and the projected grand total.

Tuesday: $3.38 million (+5.82%)
Wednesday: $2.45 million (-27.6%)
Thursday: $2.36 million (-3.4%)
SECOND WEEK TOTAL: $62.7 million (-65.4% sans Thursday previews)

Friday: $6.2 million (+162%)
Saturday: $9.39 million (+51.3%)
Sunday: $5.53 million (-41.1%)
THIRD WEEKEND TOTAL: $21.1 million (-58.9%)

PROJECTED TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $310 million (1.87x)

I think your Saturday number is too high - more like 7-8 million and Sunday maybe 4-5m total. It will be under $20m because I was thinking $25 originally but the reality is even harsher than once believed. This thing is like Zangief and being PILE DRIVED INTO THE GROUND.

 

[Stark Bauer]

So for some box office talk, where do you guys see this ranking for 2016, both domestically and WW?

Domestically, I could see it finishing behind Deadpool, Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, and Rogue One. Maybe Moana and Fantastic Beasts as well.

Internationally, I imagine Zootopia, Civil War, Dory, Rogue One, and Ice Age 5 may finish higher. Other notable films that might have an outside or very slim chance at beating it: Jungle Book, Alice, XMA, ID4, BFG, SS, Doctor Strange, Moana, and Passengers.

Internationally, BvS doesn't even make the top 10 grossing movies for 2016.

Domestically, probably 9th


Projected Top 17 For 2016 (Domestic)

1) Star Wars Rogue One - $600M
2) Civil War - $550M
3) Warcraft - $400
4) Dory - $390M
5) Deadpool - $365M
6) The Jungle Book - $350M
7) Independence Day 2 - $325M
8) Zootopia - $321M
9) Batman v Superman - $320M
10) Alice - $315M

11) Doctor Strange - $260M ($700M WW)
12) Jason Bourne - $250M
13) Star Trek Beyond - $240M
14) X-Men Apocalypse - $230M
15) Ninja Turtles 2 - $220M
16) Moana - $210M
17) Magnificent Seven - $200M

 

[PelvicSorcery]

Unless I'm missing something, Warcraft has bomb written all over it, not to mention it looks like a steaming pile of crap.

And as if the now legendary three hour version of this film is going to be so much more popular with audiences. It's probably 30 extra minutes of the same dreary and poorly written/directed garbage that we already saw. More is not always better.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Internationally, BvS doesn't even make the top 10 grossing movies for 2016.

Domestically, probably 11.

Projected Top 16 For 2016 (Domestic)

1) Star Wars Rogue One - $650M
2) Warcraft - $600M
3) Civil War - $550M
4) Dory - $390M
5) Jungle Book - $380M
6) Independence Day 2 - $360
7) Alice - $370M
8) Deadpool - $365M
9) Moana -$360M
10) Batman v Superman - $350M

11) Zootopia - $320M
12) X-Men Apocalypse - $300M
13) Magnificent Seven - $260M
14) Doctor Strange - $250M
15) Jason Bourne - $250M
16) Star Trek Beyond - $240M

Your estimate of Warcraft seems rather off.

Rogue One, Dory and Civil War will battle for #1 imo. I don't expect Rogue One to do 600m, it isn't a saga film, but it has a real chance at 500m imo. Finding Nemo is an all timer. No reason to think the sequel, if good, won't be the same.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Unless I'm missing something, Warcraft has bomb written all over it, not to mention it looks like a steaming pile of crap.

And as if the now legendary three hour version of this film is going to be so much more popular with audiences. It's probably 30 extra minutes of the same dreary and poorly written/directed garbage that we already saw. More is not always better.

Don't want to go too off topic but if you know anything about the director and his past work, his third movie should be one for the ages. Every time I watch a Duncan Jones movie, my mind is blown and I question my existence and what is life and why is life?

BvS made me do a similar thing but in a not as hopeful way. Anyway. Box office lads!

I'm thinking tomorrow Tuesday should see a slight bump. 4.5-5.5 million.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I revised my estimates. Predicting that BvS will finish in 9th place for 2016

 

[Baba3231]

Internationally, BvS doesn't even make the top 10 grossing movies for 2016.

Domestically, probably 8.


Projected Top 17 For 2016 (Domestic)

1) Star Wars Rogue One - $600M
2) Civil War - $550M
3) Warcraft - $400
4) Dory - $390M
5) Deadpool - $365M
6) The Jungle Book - $360M
7) Independence Day 2 - $351 lulz
8) Batman v Superman - $350M
9) Zootopia - $320M
10) Alice - $315M

11) Doctor Strange - $280M ($700M WW)
12) Jason Bourne - $250M
13) Star Trek Beyond - $240M
14) X-Men Apocalypse - $230M
15) Ninja Turtles 2 - $220M
16) Moana - $210M
17) Magnificent Seven - $200M

I'd be shocked if Warcraft reached 150, and where's Suicide Squad??

 

[Maze]

The only true positive i see of this debacle is that the potential is still there to be a great box office success. Wb now need a Jj Abrams.

 

[Webhead38]

BVS did $3.9 million for Tuesday so it's gains for discount Tuesdays saw very little bump. On a side note, I don't see Suicide Squad doing anything spectacular at the box office. The concept is completely foreign to the general public and the title does not exactly promote interest to a laymen who might like the genre on film but doesn't recognize the Joker in his traditional appearance or really grasp if this would be a fun film like Guardians. If it comes across as another brutally violent DC product, it could take early damage from the BVS onslaught of bad press. But nonetheless it will be interesting to watch.

 

[Orba]

Actually it looks like Rth has it as a $2.7M for Tuesday.

Looks like WB still isn't letting BvS be part of discount Tuesday if it went down rather than have an uptick.

The problem atm is Rth is using comic covers to indicate the number atm and people are having to guess what it means

 

[wobbly]

$2.7mil....ouch.

If that's on the money I'd expect they will hold the actual until after trading again.

 

[Stark Bauer]

2.7....there's no way BvS is staying #1.

At this rate, it will be earning $1 million per day by next week. It would only take another 4-6 weeks after that until it disappears from the box office and loses all of its screens

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

It went DOWN on Tuesday? These films never go down on their second Tuesday.

 

[wobbly]

Actually it looks like Rth has it as a $2.7M for Tuesday.

Looks like WB still isn't letting BvS be part of discount Tuesday if it went down rather than have an uptick.

The problem atm is Rth is using comic covers to indicate the number atm and people are having to guess what it means

Just checked the thread and I think Rth is being a little cryptic with the hint being 'Thinking time'.

The comic is Detective comics 27. Also on the cover is the year: 1939, and the price: 10c.

'Thinking Time', would suggest we look at year (imo). $3.9mil would be the solution if so.

 

[wobbly]

It went DOWN on Tuesday? These films never go down on their second Tuesday.

Yeah, I think 3.9 is the more likely of the possible solutions. 2.7 does seem too low, and doesn't take much thinking to work out at all as that's the obvious answer.

 

[Supernova]

This film making $700 million in less then 2 weeks amongst all the negative reviews and internet hate is impressive. Clearly people are going to see it regardless. I have yet to meet anyone in my day to day travels that didnt
Like it as ussual the only loud negative voices are confined to the internets.