BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[Ms. Marvel]

Drops are a very important aspect in BO discussions so YES they will continue to be brought up. That is how we can determine how good a movie's legs are.

 

[Poni_Boy]

EVERY big movie is front loaded.

Source? Data?

 

[Wylie Times]

I think people are really underestimating Wonder Woman. That film isn't expected to bring in a billion dollars and the budget wont be as high as BvS. If the film is done well I can see it bringing in the same numbers as BvS.

Wonder Woman is coming out of BvS with a lot of positive buzz and will be the female lead superhero film that people have been demanding. A decent number of people apparently went to see BvS mainly to see Wonder Woman. Transformers and Despicable Me aren't going to hurt WW's box office that much imo. Transformers in particular has been seeing a downward trend in the U.S.

 

[brandeezy89]

Problem with WW is that she's being released in a year where almost every month has a blockbuster or highly anticipated movie. There's nothing that can really be done unless other movies are delayed.

2017 will be the year of the flops

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_in_film

A lot of the big movies have literally a week before another big movie takes it's place which is crazy

 

[Lily Adler]

I say more in the $600 million range for WW.

 

[wobbly]

Speaking as somebody who has lurked since the first Raimi Spider-Man movie, the dialogue surrounding this film has pretty much followed the same trajectory as every other "dissapointment" that I've seen the fandom go through. At times I've seen almost the same arguments word for word that I saw back in 2003 with the Ang Lee Hulk both in regards to its own performance and in regards to the competition. it.

Ah, I was pretty new to the Hype board when Ang Lee's Hulk came out. Was soon 'schooled' in some box office basics with that one.

Lather, rinse, repeat....

 

[Poni_Boy]

Drops are a very important aspect in BO discussions so YES they will continue to be brought up. That is how we can determine how good a movie's legs are.

"That data does not support my argument so it is erroneous"

 

[Upset Spideyfan]

$682 million world wide so far. And before you whine about "The drops... Oh the drops!" You said "people had spoken and its a pass" which isn't true for a movie that makes 900-1 billion.

The drops do matter though. The opening shows people were hungry for this, they just didn't want seconds.

That matters if not for this movie then for Justice League certainly which doesn't have the benefit of the first onscreen appearance of the Trinity. That movie needs to address what caused those drops.

 

[Pickle-El]

All you have to do is see the tweets about all the empty theaters around the world and the consensus is clear. The people have spoken. It's a "pass."

That's as anecdotal as "My theater was packed". Expectations aside, bias aside, 52$ million in butts in seats is not maximum capacity by any means....but it's still not a 5$ Million dollar 2nd weekend. It SHOULD have been at 60-65$ million weekend two. Even then, we could still still make the claim off a few tweets that most theaters were empty.

Anyway, seeing as this BvS will not have the 2.4x multiplier of F7. Heck, we might be looking at


2.0x = 332
2.1x = 348
2.25x = 373


At the rate we're going....somewhere around 340 seems about right. Ending at #9 on comic book films all-time domestic. Between Deadpool and Spiderman-3. At best, it gets just above DP at #8 all-time. Best case scenario is #7 just ahead of Spiderman 2 at 374 (unlikely)

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/chart/?id=comicbookadaptation.htm

WW let's call it 885$ million. BvS might end up in the mid 30's all time in the Chamber Of Secrets/LOTR:Fellowship/Spider-man 3 range.

 

[Wylie Times]

$682 million world wide so far. And before you whine about "The drops... Oh the drops!" You said "people had spoken and its a pass" which isn't true for a movie that makes 900-1 billion.

The main reason you're seeing the drops is because most people aren't going back for repeated viewings.

At this point I don't see this film cracking 900 million. If the buzz about Jungle book is any indication BvS is gonna continue to see some significant drops.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Problem with WW is that she's being released in a year where almost every month has a blockbuster or highly anticipated movie. There's nothing that can really be done unless other movies are delayed.

2017 will be the year of the flops

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_in_film

A lot of the big movies have literally a week before another big movie takes it's place which is crazy

It's a very worrisome schedule. Hopefully Deadpool does for February releases what Hunger Games did for November ones a few years ago. Every movie needs breathing room or they'll canabalize each other

 

[wobbly]

EVERY big movie is front loaded.

Do you know what 'front loaded' means?

 

[Wylie Times]

Do you know what 'front loaded' means?

Obviously not....

 

[Lily Adler]

It's a very worrisome schedule. Hopefully Deadpool does for February releases what Hunger Games did for November ones a few years ago. Every movie needs breathing room or they'll canabalize each other

I thought it was March that Hunger Games popularized or was that 300?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

$682 million world wide so far. And before you whine about "The drops... Oh the drops!" You said "people had spoken and its a pass" which isn't true for a movie that makes 900-1 billion.

Also, if the movie falls below that arbitrary range does that mean the people have in fact spoken?

 

[Poni_Boy]

Do you know what 'front loaded' means?

Maybe he doesn't? Doesn't seem that way. Hey jokes can you report that front loading 101 info from the last thread?

 

[Pickle-El]

Speaking as somebody who has lurked since the first Raimi Spider-Man movie, the dialogue surrounding this film has pretty much followed the same trajectory as every other "dissapointment" that I've seen the fandom go through. At times I've seen almost the same arguments word for word that I saw back in 2003 with the Ang Lee Hulk both in regards to its own performance and in regards to the competition.

This will likely have some effect on Wonder Woman and Suicide Squad as far as their openings go but I think if those movies are genuinely good then their box office will reflect it.

Expectations are also going to be different. They need good-sized hits, ala the X-Men films (The last few) to bring more brand recognition and goodwill to the masses. Going forward, they need to rebuild trust with the audience.

 

[Zero_Effect]

Maybe he doesn't? Doesn't seem that way. Hey jokes can you report that front loading 101 info from the last thread?

Well clearly we are at the "we have lost the augment, lets move to the insulting stage." of posting.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I thought it was March that Hunger Games popularized or was that 300?

30 was the first "big" March bump from what I remember. HG did a March release too but one of theirs opened in November solidly so studios are now considering that month fair game for bigger releases. Personally I'm waiting for someone to do a franchise two-parter release in one year. I think that opens many more doors for these types of movies (i.e. JL Part 1 March 2018 / JL Part 2 August 2018)

 

[Mjölnir]

Well clearly we are at the "we have lost the augment, lets move to the insulting stage." of posting.

He was talking to the poster named "jokesonm3", whom many refer to as "jokes" for short.

I assume that was the mistake as there was nothing other that could be seen as insulting.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Well clearly we are at the "we have lost the augment, lets move insulting stage." of posting.

Actually no I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt here. Saying "EVERY movie" is front loaded sounds like you may not know what that term means. A lot don't. It's industry speak. Jokes posted a great layman breakdown of it which helped a few folks

 

[Lily Adler]

30 was the first "big" March bump from what I remember. HG did a March release too but one of theirs opened in November solidly so studios are now considering that month fair game for bigger releases. Personally I'm waiting for someone to do a franchise two-parter release in one year. I think that opens many more doors for these types of movies (i.e. JL Part 1 March 2018 / JL Part 2 August 2018)

I thought Harry Potter did the November thing, too...

 

[JC00]

And to think that the inclusion of flash (which is, by far, the most popular of these remaining members).

And even that's going to be a pushing a boulder up a mountain battle for them given that there is a Flash/Barry Allen on TV and he has been universally praised.

I'm actually worried Warner Brothers is going to force the show to remove him because of the movie. They've already killed characters off and embargoed others because of the movie universe. Even though they were saying the movie and tv universes wouldn't effect each other.

 

[Kanon]

Problem with WW is that she's being released in a year where almost every month has a blockbuster or highly anticipated movie. There's nothing that can really be done unless other movies are delayed.

2017 will be the year of the flops

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2017_in_film

A lot of the big movies have literally a week before another big movie takes it's place which is crazy

WW is going against Transformers 5 ON THE SAME DAY, and then, week 2 against Despicable Me 3 & the Uncharted movie, and the next week Spider-Man? Someone has to move (I'm guessing Uncharted is looking for box office suicide if it stays there)

 

[Zero_Effect]

Actually no I'm giving you the benefit of the doubt here. Saying "EVERY movie" is front loaded sounds like you may not know what that term means. A lot don't. It's industry speak. Jokes posted a great layman breakdown of it which helped a few folks

I did not say EVERY movie. I said every BIG movie. aka blockbuster films. obviously films like award contenders aren't front loaded and build an audience slowly. Please read what i say in the future.