BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[Ms. Marvel]

I did not say EVERY movie. I said every BIG movie. aka blockbuster films. obviously films like award films aren't front loaded and build an audience slowly. Please read what i say in the future.

In that case you are still wrong. TDK, TA, TWS, IM, GotG, Deadpool and many more are not considered front loaded as they all had pretty good multipliers.

 

[Zero_Effect]

In that case you are still wrong.

How so?

 

[Ms. Marvel]

Front loaded does not mean "it opened big" just to clarify.

 

[Stark Bauer]

I want to put this BvS is a BOX OFFICE success/failure argument to rest.

Millions and billions of dollars are such vast quantities for us mere proletarians to fathom lol so an analogy if you will:

Let's say you are an aspiring fisherman. And you NEED $160 for a fishing rod to start your business. You only have $80 so you give it to me and tell me to double your money at the casino.

I tell you that at the start of the night I made a killing. But as the night wore on, I started to lose more games.

Remember, you NEED $160.

I hand you back a grand total of $85.

Profitable?
Yes, but barely.
Is this what you needed?
No.

Warner Bros. entrusted $400 million to Zack Snyder to help kickstart their DCEU (not including MOS).

They are on track to making only $50 million in profit ($850 million)

(When movies are released, on average, the studios are only taking back 50% of what they gross.)

Ideally, a studio would like to make as much as they invested or at minimum, half as much as they invested (the production and marketing budgets) ON TOP of what they invested.

So $400M IN,
need to make double to make par so $800M,
WB was probably aiming for

$1.2 billion

$1 billion would be the minimum they would settle for in order to justify their investment.

Anything less isn't going to cut it (which is where they are headed) so it's going to be very interesting as to how much cash WB is willing to potentially burn in the next few weeks/months.

In comparison,

Marvel has done the equivalent of you handing me $2000 and you NEED to end up with at least $3000, but prefer $4000 back. I invested it in the stock market and bought Netflix shares.

I hand you back $4500.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

I think this explains what front-loading means quite well:

http://hsxsanity.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/what-is-front-loading.html

So movies with great multipliers like the ones I listed already cannot by definition be front-loaded.

 

[Zero_Effect]

Front loaded does not mean "it opened big" just to clarify.

It means it made most of its $ in the early weeks of its run. Which almost any movie with a budget over 100 million does.

 

[Poni_Boy]

I want to put this BvS is a BOX OFFICE success/failure argument to rest.

Millions and billions of dollars are such vast quantities for us mere proletarians to fathom lol so an analogy if you will:

Let's say you are an aspiring fisherman. And you NEED $160 to start your business. You only have $80 so you give it to me and tell me to double your money at the casino.

I tell you that at the start of the night I made a killing. But as the night wore on, I started to lose more games.

Remember, you NEED $160.

I hand you back a grand total of $85.

Profitable?
Yes, but barely.
Is this what you needed?
No.

Warner Bros. entrusted $400 million to Zack Snyder to help kickstart their DCEU (not including MOS).

They are on track to making only $50 million in profit ($850 million)

(When movies are released, on average, the studios are only taking back 50% of what they gross.)

Ideally, a studio would like to make as much as they invested or in the least half as much as they invested (the production and marketing budgets) ON TOP of what they invested.

So $400M IN,
need to make double to make par so $800M,
WB was probably aiming for

$1.2 billion

$1 billion would be the minimum they would settle for in order to justify their investment.

Anything less isn't going to cut it (which is where they are headed) so it's going to be very interesting as to how much cash WB is willing to potentially burn in the next few weeks/months.

In comparison,

Marvel has done the equivalent of you handing me $2000 and you NEED at to end up with at least $3000. I invested it in the stock market and bought Netflix shares.

I hand you back $4500.

And boom goes the dynamite

 

[jokesonm3]

Maybe he doesn't? Doesn't seem that way. Hey jokes can you report that front loading 101 info from the last thread?

Sure thing:

For those who don't know what Front-Loading is (And holy hell there's a lotta you that don't know here), here's a quick definition of what it is, y'all can put 2 & 2 together as to why Batman v Superman's box office oh-so clearly falls under this:

What is front-loading?

Front-loading is when a movie's audience turns out in droves to see the film on its opening weekend - or even its opening day - but does not sustain a high level of interest.

By definition, movies that are front loaded will have a low internal multiplier, with more people seeing the movie at midnight shows and on Friday than over the rest of the weekend. They will also have a low delist multiplier, as audiences lose interest in the movie after its opening weekend, making them profitable post-adjust shorts.

The types of movie that tend to be front-loaded include:

- Sequels, prequels and other franchise movies
- Movies that have a GFB fan-base
- Movies aimed at teenage audiences
- Horror movies
- Tyler Perry movies

Movies aimed at adult audiences and children tend not to be front-loaded.

Obviously these are indicators about what to expect, not rules. There are plenty of sequels and franchise movies that sustain fan interest beyond the opening Friday night and delists above adjust price - say, when a movie has very positive word of mouth, or it breaks out from its target audience to attract other demographics.

To get an idea of whether a particular movie is front-loaded, you can look at a range of factors, such as:

- Comparing the movie's opening Friday and Saturday box office figures. If a movie has a lower Saturday than Friday - once midnights are factored out - it is likely to be front-loaded
- Comparing the movie's Monday box office to its opening weekend box office. The average Monday gross is about 10-11% of the weekend figure.
- Comparing the movie's second weekend box office gross with that of its opening weekend. The average second weekend of box office is about 40-45% lower than opening weekend. You can also compare the movie's second Friday with its first Friday - the average drop is about 35%

These numbers are all guidelines, and not hard rules, and you should take other factors into account such as the movie's genre and target audience. For example, some movies - particularly movies aimed at children - are far more popular to see on weekends than during the week, and can suffer very steep drops on Monday without being front-loaded.

You can also look at other non-box office factors, such as:

- The film's Cinemascore rating, which indicates how well the movie was received by its target audience. Anything B+ or under is not good. There is more information on Cinemascore in this column
- The film's ratings on rottentomatoes.com, including the Tomatometer which gives a summary of how well the movie was received by critics, and the Flixster audience rating. These ratings are also available through Flixster
-- How similar movies have performed on opening weekend and the next three weeks of release

http://hsxsanity.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/what-is-front-loading.html

 

[Sarcastic Fan]

And boom goes the dynamite

Let's just keep this copied somewhere for easy re-posting.

 

[Poni_Boy]

It means it made most of its $ in the early weeks of its run. Which almost any movie with a budget over 100 million does.

No, that's not what it means. Front loading is a release PLAN not a release analysis after the fact. Studios CHOOSE to front load a movie, it's not an explanation of why a movie got the money it did.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

It means it made most of its $ in the early weeks of its run. Which almost any movie with a budget over 100 million does.

If the movie has a high internal multiplier then it isn't front-loaded.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Sure thing:

For those who don't know what Front-Loading is (And holy hell there's a lotta you that don't know here), here's a quick definition of what it is, y'all can put 2 & 2 together as to why Batman v Superman's box office oh-so clearly falls under this:



http://hsxsanity.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/what-is-front-loading.html

Aaaand there it is. Studios choose to front load their movies to hedge their bets on recovering the most money up FRONT as possible. It's a release plan when you are worried about a movie having bad legs/longevity

 

[Stark Bauer]

I laughed way harder than I should have. You make it sound as if Marvel are dropping an atomic bomb in theatres lol

I'm glad you enjoyed that friend. CW is going to be taking most of what is left (Jungle Book will be first blood) of BvS' screens away


Disney is a lethal assassin lol hitting other studios with an arsenal full of WMDs.

 

[Poni_Boy]

If the movie has a high internal multiplier then it isn't front-loaded.

And the vast majority of the time studio analysts know if a movie will have one before it is released. If you want to know if a studio is hedging their bets on a movie being front loaded look for: late review embargo lifting + big presale ticket push + revised OW estimation

 

[Poni_Boy]

Let's just keep this copied somewhere for easy re-posting.

Good idea. I'm gonna add that and a few other references to my sig

 

[Pickle-El]

Front loaded does not mean "it opened big" just to clarify.

Yes.

Most of these films ARE front-loaded. Many open big and end up with a 2.4-2.5 multiplier. Comic book movies generally have high front-end demand.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Yes.

Most of these films ARE front-loaded. Many open big and end up with a 2.4-2.5 multiplier. Comic book movies generally have high front-end demand.

They damn well should be if they're being released in a crowded market. Gotta recoup those funds ASAP and not just sit around hoping next week's blockbuster will flop

 

[JOE]

No movie is going to make more money in it's second weekend, the OW will always be larger than the rest. Does that make every single movie front loaded? No. End of discussion lol.

 

[Tymminator]

Sure thing:

For those who don't know what Front-Loading is (And holy hell there's a lotta you that don't know here), here's a quick definition of what it is, y'all can put 2 & 2 together as to why Batman v Superman's box office oh-so clearly falls under this:



http://hsxsanity.blogspot.co.uk/2013/01/what-is-front-loading.html

Great summery but real quick, what's GFB?

 

[jokesonm3]

Great summery but real quick, what's GFB?

No idea, i just copy & paste stuff.

 

[Lily Adler]

Gay Friend's Boyfriend? Global Fries Boycott?

 

[Zero_Effect]

Exhibitor Relations ‏@ERCboxoffice

BATMAN V SUPERMAN officially grossed $85.25M internationally this weekend on 28k screens in 67 markets. Total is $422.5M.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Gay Friend's Boyfriend? Global Fries Boycott?

Godawful Freaking Boxoffice

 

[Poni_Boy]

So, predictions on this week's percentages based on the weekend?

 

[Tymminator]

422.5M total huh? Hm.