BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[Poni_Boy]

So in light of today's revelations, what are the most likely numbers for final WW total?

I'm sticking with $850 mil WW

 

[-Arya-]

I have a feeling that DC as a company might not survive into the next decade if these movies are as badly received as BvS. It'll be very hard to recover.

 

[C. Lee]

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[db85usa]

Didn't somebody here predict 51.5 million?

Yeah, I did project $51.5M for the 2nd weekend for an actual number, still off by a smidge. I have been looking at this film's box office sales and even last week after looking at things thoroughly, I saw a 69% drop coming which is pretty much exactly what happened. Am I surprised? No, not at all. What does it mean for WB? Well, it means you were damn close to 70% really. Any executive who tries to play this off as simply insignificant needs to re-evaluate the situation.

I will not be changing my projection since opening weekend and that is a rather low domestic haul of $330 million and $880 million globally. Take a look at the company of films surrounding BvS on the all-time domestic list and it makes one wonder what could have been if the film simply had better WOM and a higher RT score and maybe an 'A' CinemaScore to boot. If I am WB, I'm going to pull a Hunger Games and not release another film in March whether it be a solo superhero movie or joint/team up film.

 

[Stark Bauer]

Yeah, I did project $51.5M for the 2nd weekend for an actual number, still off by a smidge. I have been looking at this film's box office sales and even last week after looking at things thoroughly, I saw a 69% drop coming which is pretty much exactly what happened. Am I surprised? No, not at all. What does it mean for WB? Well, it means you were damn close to 70% really. Any executive who tries to play this off as simply insignificant needs to re-evaluate the situation.

I will not be changing my projection since opening weekend and that is a rather low domestic haul of $330 million and $880 million globally. Take a look at the company of films surrounding BvS on the all-time domestic list and it makes one wonder what could have been if the film simply had better WOM and a higher RT score and maybe an 'A' CinemaScore to boot. If I am WB, I'm going to pull a Hunger Games and not release another film in March whether it be a solo superhero movie or joint/team up film.

You are on the money Nostradamus.

I have it pegged at $333 domestic total and $883 worldwide grosses respectively.

Only a $3M difference lol

What are your estimates for this weeks total and next weekend's box office? Domestically.

 

[db85usa]

Hmm...let me see here

Marvel was going bankrupt...sells off the cinematic rights of its A list characters...uses the success of its B list characters at the Box Office to climb out of bankruptcy. Continues to buy its properties back one at a time.

DC could possibly go bankrupt due to losing money at the Box Office. And have a reverse scenario

BvS is looking to break even. #EvenSteven

DC will not be going bankrupt. There is still money out there to be earned. As far as box office goes, yes, they may barely break even or come short of where they want to be but there is still other revenue sources to be made that will put it in the green. Unless you work for DC, WB, or are an insider who knows people, you don't truly know their financial situation. Its a lot more complicated than you and a lot of other people could fathom.

Now, with regards to box office, this film just doesn't have the legs to compete for the next month or two. I said from the beginning, if BvS can remain in the box office for at least 100+ days, the domestic take will be higher but if we look back at Man of Steel, it was only in the box office for 98 days. That is alarming to me, and it looks as though BvS is heading down that same path.

People might wonder what causes a movie to have such a short release term? Its simple: poor critic reviews, mixed audience reactions = poor word of mouth. These three factors always determine whether a film will have 'legs' during its release in the box office.

 

[JC00]

Just remembered The Masters is this weekend which is going to hurt the adult male demo. Which is a demo it really needs this weekend because a lot of the women will be going to see Melissa McCarthy's new movie.

 

[Tony Stark]

The only hope now is that you don't see a >50% drop in weekend 3. Wolverine did -44.3% in it's 3rd weekend, which would put BvS at about 29M.

Anything lower than 26M, the theater chains are going to yank this out as fast as they can.

 

[JC00]

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Wait does that mean just predictions and no box office talk at all?

 

[flickchick85]

Wait does that mean just predictions and no box office talk at all?

No, it means box office talk is fine, while debates on Kevin Smith's loyalties are waaaay off the reservation.

 

[Tony Stark]

Just remembered The Masters is this weekend which is going to hurt the adult male demo. Which is a demo it really needs this weekend because a lot of the women will be going to see Melissa McCarthy's new movie.

Yes and it will probably be one of the highest watched masters as you've got the top 6 players in the world in Day, Spieth, McIlroy, Watson, Fowler and Henson that are all heavy favorites going into the tournament.

 

[Sithborg]

Just remembered The Masters is this weekend which is going to hurt the adult male demo. Which is a demo it really needs this weekend because a lot of the women will be going to see Melissa McCarthy's new movie.

Wish I could go. Great event. Though I question just how much of a detriment it can be. Should look up Masters ratings.

The only hope now is that you don't see a >50% drop in weekend 3. Wolverine did -44.3% in it's 3rd weekend, which would put BvS at about 29M.

Anything lower than 26M, the theater chains are going to yank this out as fast as they can.

I think this is where BvS having more money to start out can hurt it. It has far more money to lose than Origins. But, an Origins level 3rd weekend drop would be beneficial for this movie at this point. Which just shows where this movie is at...

 

[db85usa]

You are on the money Nostradamus.

I have it pegged at $333 domestic total and $883 worldwide grosses respectively.

Only a $3M difference lol

What are your estimates for this weeks total and next weekend's box office? Domestically.

For Week 2 - Apr 1 to Apr 7, I am expecting $65-68 million for the weekly take because I expect to see this drop even more with its daily receipts. We're probably going to see it start grossing $5 million daily and maybe as low as $4.5 million later in the week. Sadly, I believe 'The Boss' has a chance to gut BvS 3rd weekend total. I expect BvS to have 60-65% drop from its 2nd weekend total. Will know more tomorrow.

 

[daddydivine]

The sig says it all folks. 912 million. Not a million more or a million less.

If I'm right I should be given supreme Mod powers for 1 day.

 

[db85usa]

The only hope now is that you don't see a >50% drop in weekend 3. Wolverine did -44.3% in it's 3rd weekend, which would put BvS at about 29M.

Anything lower than 26M, the theater chains are going to yank this out as fast as they can.

Yeah, I don't see that happening. I think this drops in the low 60's for the 3rd weekend due to the release of 'The Boss'. What you may not be factoring in is the reviews/WOM on BvS. Its lackluster compared to any other film you can pit against it. We will see but I agree in order to stop the bleeding, this needs to drop in the mid to high 50's to have any kind of upward mobility.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

Yeah, I don't see that happening. I think this drops in the low 60's for the 3rd weekend due to the release of 'The Boss'. What you may not be factoring in is the reviews/WOM on BvS. Its lackluster compared to any other film you can pit against it. We will see but I agree in order to stop the bleeding, this needs to drop in the mid to high 50's to have any kind of upward mobility.

If it does get any kind of upward mobility next weekend, Jungle Book is going to take it away the following weekend.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Updated int'l number: $82.2 million.

http://deadline.com/2016/04/batman-...-results-international-box-office-1201731145/

 

[C. Lee]

No, it means box office talk is fine, while debates on Kevin Smith's loyalties are waaaay off the reservation.

That's why I love you....you understand me.


People.......the discussion in the BOX OFFICE thread should be about the box office.....

discussing who should direct further DCEU movies is NOT discussing the BvS box office

discussing what the WB execs are going to do in the future is NOT discussing BvS box office

discussing whether you liked BvS or not is NOT discussing BvS box office...

 

[Sithborg]

I'm feeling a 55% drop. Higher than Furious 7's, which puts toward a $22 million weekend.

 

[Kanon]

I'm feeling a 55% drop. Higher than Furious 7's, which puts toward a $22 million weekend.

I have a feeling that by next weekend, if not earlier, BvS will be trailing Furious 7. (only $9M difference at the moment)

 

[db85usa]

The fact that BvS had a 81% Friday to Friday drop including the Thursday previews is a major red flag. This is on Fantastic Four levels. This is not a territory you want your top billed comic book superhero characters to be in. WB has to seriously take in to consideration the downward trajectory this film has faced since its release and look at the bigger picture here. There is a serious risk of doing irreparable harm to any Justice League film.

I can't imagine any smart person would be willing to risk the box office future of that film after the modest returns in the box office for BvS. There's a lot of negative press on this film which damages it even further and the press is not to blame.

 

[db85usa]

If it does get any kind of upward mobility next weekend, Jungle Book is going to take it away the following weekend.

That will definitely happen if Jungle Book has good reviews going for it. Especially if its a family film to bring children, etc. Even so, that film has the potential to put another major dent into BvS.

 

[db85usa]

That's why I love you....you understand me.


People.......the discussion in the BOX OFFICE thread should be about the box office.....

discussing who should direct further DCEU movies is NOT discussing the BvS box office

discussing what the WB execs are going to do in the future is NOT discussing BvS box office

discussing whether you liked BvS or not is NOT discussing BvS box office...

Okay, heard.

 

[JC00]

Wish I could go. Great event. Though I question just how much of a detriment it can be. Should look up Masters ratings.

.

Last year's final round (Sunday) had an average of 14m viewers and peaked at 17m

The third round (Saturday) had an average of 9m viewers and peaked with 10m

http://www.pgatour.com/news/2015/04/13/masters-tv-ratings.html

 

[johnboy3434]

I'm feeling a 55% drop. Higher than Furious 7's, which puts toward a $22 million weekend.

My time series model predicts a $25.7 million weekend, but that's based on the estimates of the weekend. I'll update when we get the day-to-day actuals.