BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - Part 13

[db85usa]

My time series model predicts a $25.7 million weekend, but that's based on the estimates of the weekend. I'll update when we get the day-to-day actuals.

Good system to use of course - so basically a 50% drop from weekend 2? I'll bet in favor of a higher drop than this -60% no higher than -65% because I think 'The Boss' will pull in more than $25 million.

 

[InCali]

Glad to contribute to the Augusta thread.

Catching up. The 2nd weekend drop was huge and I don't see any reason to sugar coat it. This movie had 2 of the most well known, popular figures in CB history. Another drop of anything in the vicinity of 50% bodes ill. I originally thought that BvS and CA:CW would do about the same at the box office. Now, I don't see it.

As far as comparing BO numbers of "comparable" movies, there aren't any true "comparables". Sure, there are some similarities, but there are huge differences because the two studios are handling the release of their characters differently. One could say that CW and BvS are comparable because they have multiple super heroes. Even though MCU is further into their universe building, that doesn't necessarily translate to better box office numbers; especially when you are talking about Superman and Batman being the featured characters.

If people like a movie, they will go see it again and again (TDK and GotG both had very good legs because people liked the movies.).

 

[Tvar10]

So its looking more and more like 800-850WW.....900M seems like a long shot and 1B is pretty much out of reach.. Especially with the competition the next few weeks

 

[Sithborg]

I find Furious 7 and Hunger Games to be decent comparisons, due to releasing at similar times.

 

[Spiderdevil]

So its looking more and more like 800-850WW.....900M seems like a long shot and 1B is pretty much out of reach.. Especially with the competition the next few weeks

How the mighty have fallen!

 

[Tymminator]

The fact that BvS had a 81% Friday to Friday drop including the Thursday previews is a major red flag. This is on Fantastic Four levels. This is not a territory you want your top billed comic book superhero characters to be in. WB has to seriously take in to consideration the downward trajectory this film has faced since its release and look at the bigger picture here. There is a serious risk of doing irreparable harm to any Justice League film.

I can't imagine any smart person would be willing to risk the box office future of that film after the modest returns in the box office for BvS. There's a lot of negative press on this film which damages it even further and the press is not to blame.

"This is on Fantastic Four levels"? YIKES.

Hey, it's hard for me to imagine it having drops like that.

I'm probably going to see it this weekend again, I'll see if I have any theaters to myself.

Are there any international holidays that might possibly help boost this? I'm having a hard time seeing 900M WW.

 

[Mysteryman]

The Fantastic Four WISHES it had the box office of BVS.

 

[johnboy3434]

The Fantastic Four WISHES it had the box office of BVS.

Not that much difference in terms of the drop. Excluding Thursday previews, F4 dropped 64.5%, compared to 62.5% for BvS. Despite the wide gap in terms of absolute sales, the two films exhibit a similar level of disinterest among repeat viewers.

 

[third3ye]

My original prediction from months before the film release was $900m-$950m, I'm sticking with that. If DOM lands around $350m (2.1x OW) and OS% stays around 62%, that'll get to my prediction.

Not sure if The Boss will move the needle much given another 50%+ drop for BvS this coming weekend, plus there's no reviews yet so a bit of a bad sign for a comedy. Also doubt Hardcore Henry will attract a large enough audience to matter, in spite of favorable reviews thus far. Both new entrants also R rated, and they're no Deadpools, so that'll hurt. Jungle Book reviews are starting to post and it looks favorable, this will likely be BvS' last weekend to make any serious dough before that releases.

 

[SuperAl]

Not that much difference in terms of the drop. Excluding Thursday previews, F4 dropped 64.5%, compared to 62.5% for BvS. Despite the wide gap in terms of absolute sales, the two films exhibit a similar level of disinterest among repeat viewers.

This is a terrible comparison. BvS already made more than F4's entire run, hell it proly made more than all F4 movies combined. Its like comparing a indie films box office earnings to a blockbuster. The comparison makes no sense when you are basically ignoring the money involved.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I still can't believe this film has these types of drops, no way would I have predicted this at the start of March. The legs are almost non-existent as well. I had a poster in another thread compare the drops to Wolverine: Origins as if that was some type of good thing!

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

This is a terrible comparison. BvS already made more than F4's entire run, hell it proly made more than all F4 movies combined. Its like comparing a indie films box office earnings to a blockbuster. The comparison makes no sense when you are basically ignoring the money involved.

The comparison is not the money it made at the box office, the comparison is how hard the drops are hitting it which means not many repeat viewings which then means the GA doesn't particularly care for this film. When you're starting your cinematic universe and are getting the same drops as Wolverine: origins and F4INO, 2 of the most hated CBMs in history, that is not at all what WB/DC want. If this was a good movie the drops would be minimal and the legs would be crazy good. I still can't believe the first silver screen team up of Batman and Supes is dropping like this.

 

[JtheDreamer]

I still can't believe this film has these types of drops, no way would I have predicted this at the start of March. The legs are almost non-existent as well. I had a poster in another thread compare the drops to Wolverine: Origins as if that was some type of good thing!

This movie should have been a cash cow for WB and be the new staple for their movie studio - but they missed the mark horribly on account of some bizarre hubris.

 

[Poni_Boy]

This is a terrible comparison. BvS already made more than F4's entire run, hell it proly made more than all F4 movies combined. Its like comparing a indie films box office earnings to a blockbuster. The comparison makes no sense when you are basically ignoring the money involved.

XMen Origins made more than Captain America's final run. And Thor's. So?

 

[Tymminator]

The comparison was in reference to the drops and the drops alone.

It was not about the gross, domestic or otherwise, simply the % drops, so yes its a valid comparison.

Regarding the gross, yeah BvS obviously grossed more than F4, but at the same time BvS doesn't gross enough to give WB a decent profit it doesn't matter anyways.

 

[Tymminator]

I still can't believe this film has these types of drops, no way would I have predicted this at the start of March. The legs are almost non-existent as well. I had a poster in another thread compare the drops to Wolverine: Origins as if that was some type of good thing!

I didn't either. I am not the biggest fan of Snyder, but I still was looking forward to this film and figured it would be better received than this.

(I myself even bought all the BvS Multiverse figs)

This is probably a stupid idea, but do you think a double feature of Man of Steel with this movie at a slightly discounted rate would help sell tickets to boost the box office take?

 

[Flickster]

The folks over at Collider talk about the drops in their latest video. Check it out.

Video

EDIT:

Grace Randolph has made a video about it as well.

Video.

 

[wobbly]

Actual was $51.34mil in the end. A little under the earlier $51.8

 

[Tymminator]

Next week beside "the Boss", is there any other competition coming out?

 

[Poni_Boy]

I didn't either. I am not the biggest fan of Snyder, but I still was looking forward to this film and figured it would be better received than this.

(I myself even bout all the BvS Multiverse figs)

This is probably a stupid idea, but do you think a double feature of Man of Steel with this movie at a slightly discounted rate would help sell tickets to boost the box office take?

Doubt it. I don't even know many fans who would sit through that for five hours at the price they'd have to charge. Plus then they're taking show times away from BvS. Would make more sense to release the 3-hr cut in the most expensive IMAX markets. And offer freebies like tickets and posters and tshirts. Or offer a ten minute sneak peek of Suicide Squad.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Next week beside "the Boss", is there any other competition coming out?

Nah. The Boss is expected to get about $25 mil

 

[Tymminator]

Doubt it. I don't even know many fans who would sit through that for five hours at the price they'd have to charge. Plus then they're taking show times away from BvS. Would make more sense to release the 3-hr cut in the most expensive IMAX markets. And offer freebies like tickets and posters and tshirts. Or offer a ten minute sneak peek of Suicide Squad.

Yeah, I heard you say that before and i agree, but I didn't want to steal your idea. I'm just spitting stuff out for ideas.

 

[Flickster]

Nah. The Boss is expected to get about $25 mil

It will beat the boss. Quote me on it.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Yeah, I heard you say that before and i agree, but I didn't want to steal your idea. I'm just spitting stuff out for ideas.

Hah dude it ain't my idea. Studios have been offering incentives for yeeeears to boost ticket sales. Yell at WB on social media. Maybe they'll listen. At this point they need to get off their asses and do something to sell tickets. Losing the #1 slot at the BO to a Melissa McCarthy comedy will get them another round of bad headlines.

 

[Poni_Boy]

It will beat the boss. Quote me on it.

No. To both.