BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

[parkerpete]

But this was batman/superman/ww together for the first time. That accounted for a lot. That is why I went OW. If they had done MoS2 (which this almost was since you could pretty much remove batman and not change much in the movie) then it would have done much worse OW and I'm pretty sure I wouldn't have gone OW and waited to see if it was better then the first MoS.

Have to agree with this. MoS made a profit but underperformed and a lot of fans groused about the characterization of Superman. So much so that WB INCORPORATED THOSE COMPLAINTS INTO A PLOT POINT FOR BVS, AND added Batman for the sequel. That tells you how nervous they were about winning over the general audience.

A lot of people who were not big fans of MoS came back for Batman and the perception that WB/Snyder recognized the criticisms of the first movie, and were addressing them specifically to improve upon them.

Instead, they doubled down on the problematic tone/characterizations, and delivered a movie that is looked upon by many as an even bigger critical failure than MoS. They burned off all their goodwill. Sure, I may be wrong in my perceptions, and the General Audience might be forgiving enough to give JL another huge opening weekend.

But I would put up my own money to bet against it, if they keep Snyder.

 

[Tilapia]

Have to agree with this. MoS made a profit but underperformed and a lot of fans groused about the characterization of Superman. So much so that WB INCORPORATED THOSE COMPLAINTS INTO A PLOT POINT FOR BVS, AND added Batman for the sequel. That tells you how nervous they were about winning over the general audience.

A lot of people who were not big fans of MoS came back for Batman and the perception that WB/Snyder recognized the criticisms of the first movie, and were addressing them specifically to improve upon them.

Instead, they doubled down on the problematic tone/characterizations, and delivered a movie that is looked upon by many as an even bigger critical failure than MoS. They burned off all their goodwill. Sure, I may be wrong in my perceptions, and the General Audience might be forgiving enough to give JL another huge opening weekend.

But I would put up my own money to bet against it, if they keep Snyder.

Snyder has to direct JL if they are sticking to the schedule. You can't just bring in another guy and expect him to work a miracle overnight. Best bet is to delay JL, focus on a SS sequel, and lure Miller for a Jusice League trilogy. If Affleck doesn't sign on for three more, just do a two parter as is currently planned.

 

[Krandor]

Snyder has to direct JL if they are sticking to the schedule. You can't just bring in another guy and expect him to work a miracle overnight. Best bet is to delay JL, focus on a SS sequel, and lure Miller for a Jusice League trilogy. If Affleck doesn't sign on for three more, just do a two parter as is currently planned.

Agreed. They need to delay JL and regroup. Even if they stay with Snyder (which I think is a bad idea) they need to address the complaints of BvS or they will have a big issue on their hand with JL... and since JL is a two part movie (not even a sequal but two parts) if the audience doesn't like part 1 then part 2 is almost doomed at the box office. WB has a problem on their hands right now and instead of rushing into JL they should delay it to give them a chance to regoup and figure out what went wrong here or they could potentially have box office issues with JL and possibly even worse with JL part 2 if they don't get things fixed.

 

[wobbly]

Are the Wednesday domestic estimates in yet?

Don't think so. Actuals will be up later on anyway.

 

[Tilapia]

Right now the schedule is part I late 2017 and part II what? Summer 2018? I don't like the idea of going head up vs Avengers 3, even if the films are two months apart. I think you need a good 2-2.5 years of production targeting a late 2019 into 2020 release. I know that's over three years away, but I honestly feel you need that time.

 

[WilliamK99]

It seems WB is ignoring the box office drops and have doubled down on their current direction. Maybe privately they are making changes but their behavior reminds me of the old saying "The definition of insanity is doing the same thing over and over again, expecting different results"

 

[paulogonza]

Right now the schedule is part I late 2017 and part II what? Summer 2018? I don't like the idea of going head up vs Avengers 3, even if the films are two months apart. I think you need a good 2-2.5 years of production targeting a late 2019 into 2020 release. I know that's over three years away, but I honestly feel you need that time.

but maybe the actors doint have this time or schedule or contract, and the story will be disconected , now the only way is finish what started.

 

[The Joker]

Any word on yesterday's numbers yet?

 

[Tacit Ronin]

Do you guys think Rogue One will make more than this?

 

[WilliamK99]

Do you guys think Rogue One will make more than this?

Hard to say, this is the first ever "Star Wars spinoff" so it'll be interesting to see how much it differs from a regular Star Wars film...

 

[InCali]

Do you guys think Rogue One will make more than this?

I definitely think so. Maybe not OW, but the final numbers will be much higher.

 

[bapi]

Do you guys think Rogue One will make more than this?

100% sure: YES!!! Star Wars is the biggest movie brand in the world and ocne they show 'you know who' in action... can't imagine less than 450M DOM and 700M OS. And that's the absolute minimum.

 

[InCali]

Agreed. They need to delay JL and regroup. Even if they stay with Snyder (which I think is a bad idea) they need to address the complaints of BvS or they will have a big issue on their hand with JL... and since JL is a two part movie (not even a sequal but two parts) if the audience doesn't like part 1 then part 2 is almost doomed at the box office. WB has a problem on their hands right now and instead of rushing into JL they should delay it to give them a chance to regoup and figure out what went wrong here or they could potentially have box office issues with JL and possibly even worse with JL part 2 if they don't get things fixed.

Yeah. That sounds like a smart approach. I'd like to see some solo efforts leading up to the "big" JL movie. If they can do a good job (I know some would say that's a BIG "if"), that will create a lot of buzz for the movie. Staying the course is, IMO, courting disaster (EDIT: maybe "certain" is a better word than "courting").

 

[bapi]

Do you guys think Rogue One will make more than this?

Honestly I expect BvS to lose to Rogue One, Civil War and Finding Dory plus it's hard to predict that Harry Potter spin-off and Independence Day 2 right now. China could be a big factor for both - HP8 was the 5th biggest Hollywood movie there in 2011 so I can definitely imagine something between 150-200M. And 2012 was even the biggest 2009 movie in China overall. Wouldn't surprise me if ID makes 300M or more there.

 

[OtherwiseKnownAs]

Do you guys think Rogue One will make more than this?

Yep. The teaser is getting people talking, and they still have their ace-in-the-hole. Once they show that, it's over. It might even be bigger than CWs' Spider-Man reveal.

 

[Poni_Boy]

Do you guys think Rogue One will make more than this?

Easily one of the top three box office movies of the year. BvS will be lucky to hit eighth.

 

[bapi]

Agreed. They need to delay JL and regroup. Even if they stay with Snyder (which I think is a bad idea) they need to address the complaints of BvS or they will have a big issue on their hand with JL... and since JL is a two part movie (not even a sequal but two parts) if the audience doesn't like part 1 then part 2 is almost doomed at the box office. WB has a problem on their hands right now and instead of rushing into JL they should delay it to give them a chance to regoup and figure out what went wrong here or they could potentially have box office issues with JL and possibly even worse with JL part 2 if they don't get things fixed.

I just don't understand WB. This is from that THR article: "One says the filmmakers naturally will evaluate what went wrong with BvS". But how they can do that when JL will start filming this monday. If they wanted to hire another writer or script doctor they'd have to put JL on hold for another 2-3 months but doesn't look like it's happening. Clearly they definitely didn't expect these reactions so makes you wonder about scores from test screenings. Plus that was my problem for many months - if BvS doesn't work then what's the chance that JL from the same team will be any different? They didn't want to wait for reactions to see what works with audience and critics and what just doesn't.

 

[InCali]

I just don't understand WB. This is from that THR article: "One says the filmmakers naturally will evaluate what went wrong with BvS". But how they can do that when JL will start filming this monday. If they wanted to hire another writer or script doctor they'd have to put JL on hold for another 2-3 months but doesn't look like it's happening. Clearly they definitely didn't expect these reactions so makes you wonder about scores from test screenings. Plus that was my problem for many months - if BvS doesn't work then what's the chance that JL from the same team will be any different? They didn't want to wait for reactions to see what works with audience and critics and what just doesn't.

It sounds like BS, smells like BS, looks like BS.......

 

[juju151111]

I just don't understand WB. This is from that THR article: "One says the filmmakers naturally will evaluate what went wrong with BvS". But how they can do that when JL will start filming this monday. If they wanted to hire another writer or script doctor they'd have to put JL on hold for another 2-3 months but doesn't look like it's happening. Clearly they definitely didn't expect these reactions so makes you wonder about scores from test screenings. Plus that was my problem for many months - if BvS doesn't work then what's the chance that JL from the same team will be any different? They didn't want to wait for reactions to see what works with audience and critics and what just doesn't.

Its not the writers. They are not changing the core element Zach Snyder.

 

[kalelvis]

There have been a lot of posts in here talking about how WB knew they had a problematic movie on their hands. The McWeeney story backs up that the studio knew for a long time that this movie was going to get a very mixed reaction. So, by that logic they have had months to already be working on the tone and story of the JL movie. Lets say they keep the major story line (whatever it is) but decide to lighten the tone, then it really is just a matter of looking at how the characters interact with each other. Add a few smiles, add a quip here and there and presto...new tone. Also, tone is very shaped by musical score. Musical scoring won't happen until there is film to score.

Story stucture is also easy to fix on the page.

Short version....WB knew the film had problems months ago....it would be silly to think that they were just sitting around hoping for the best. Why else would they have Terrio announce the lighter tone for JL?

They have an easy lesson to learn from BvS at the box office. There is enough interest there to pull in big crowds....they just need to keep them.

 

[InCali]

Its not the writers. They are not changing the core element Zach Snyder.

I don't know what it is, but, even though I kind of liked it, they HAVE to recognize that something went very wrong. Saying that you are evaluating what went wrong and then (seemingly) proceeding as planned don't really seem to mesh in my mind. Maybe it's a little bit of both, but if you don't take the time to stop and think, it seems likely that not much is going to change.

 

[TheFlamingCoco]

There have been a lot of posts in here talking about how WB knew they had a problematic movie on their hands. The McWeeney story backs up that the studio knew for a long time that this movie was going to get a very mixed reaction. So, by that logic they have had months to already be working on the tone and story of the JL movie. Lets say they keep the major story line (whatever it is) but decide to lighten the tone, then it really is just a matter of looking at how the characters interact with each other. Add a few smiles, add a quip here and there and presto...new tone. Also, tone is very shaped by musical score. Musical scoring won't happen until there is film to score.

Story stucture is also easy to fix on the page.

Short version....WB knew the film had problems months ago....it would be silly to think that they were just sitting around hoping for the best. Why else would they have Terrio announce the lighter tone for JL?

They have an easy lesson to learn from BvS at the box office. There is enough interest there to pull in big crowds....they just need to keep them.

A few jokes here and there doesn't change the fact that Zack doesn't seem to either get or respect the characters

 

[Aejej]

Do you guys think Rogue One will make more than this?

It will make mad money. They showed AT-ATs in the trailer. There's a scene where Vader's working on his saber with a hot glue gun. VIP ticket holders get to own a drop of Mark Hamill's blood.

 

[kalelvis]

Looks like BvS pulled in 2.9m on Wednesday. Similar hold to FF7. Might really be stabilizing. This weekend will be interesting. The different combine formats for BvS still have it at the top of online sales (though not longer holding the number one position on Pulse because it breaks out the different formats) but still holding number 1 on Movie tickets.

Thursday is going to be a tight race between BvS, Zootopia and The Boss. If numbers hold, BvS just might keep the top spot for one last week.

 

[InCali]

There have been a lot of posts in here talking about how WB knew they had a problematic movie on their hands. The McWeeney story backs up that the studio knew for a long time that this movie was going to get a very mixed reaction. So, by that logic they have had months to already be working on the tone and story of the JL movie. Lets say they keep the major story line (whatever it is) but decide to lighten the tone, then it really is just a matter of looking at how the characters interact with each other. Add a few smiles, add a quip here and there and presto...new tone. Also, tone is very shaped by musical score. Musical scoring won't happen until there is film to score.

Story stucture is also easy to fix on the page.

Short version....WB knew the film had problems months ago....it would be silly to think that they were just sitting around hoping for the best. Why else would they have Terrio announce the lighter tone for JL?

They have an easy lesson to learn from BvS at the box office. There is enough interest there to pull in big crowds....they just need to keep them.

That's true. The question is "Do THEY understand what the problem is?" A lot of people think the DCEU direction needs more than a few tweaks here and there and really needs some fundamental changes.

Who knows. I guess we'll all find out.