BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - Part 14

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For the life of me I can't see how anyone can think this films still going to make a billion at the box office.

I also can't see how people are still so naive to think the "RECORD BREAKING GLOBAL WEEKEND!" was anything but a cheap (and successful) attempt to release in every country together before any word could get out about the quality of the film. Their "record" means NOTHING. It's actually not even that great when you consider that all its competition doesn't have japanese, chinese, half of European markets in their global opening.
 
mightiest_mortal said:
For the life of me I can't see how anyone can think this films still going to make a billion at the box office.

I also can't see how people are still so naive to think the "RECORD BREAKING GLOBAL WEEKEND!" was anything but a cheap (and successful) attempt to release in every country together before any word could get out about the quality of the film. Their "record" means NOTHING. It's actually not even that great when you consider that all its competition doesn't have japanese, chinese, half of European markets in their global opening.
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Yeah, BVS fans love to keep pointing this out, while conveniently omitted the fact that it was achieved through opening at all the domestic and foreign box office at the same time, compared with other blockbusters who have staggered release. It is not an achievement at all. On the other hand, the movie that was supposed to be locked to break Avengers' record won't even crack a billion WW.
 
From Deadline

Deadline said:
In regards to everything else, keep in mind, spring breaks are in a slowdown mode now with 15% schools off per ComScore, down from 30% last Friday. By Monday only 4% will be on break. Nonetheless, Warner Bros. can relish the fact that Batman v Superman: Dawn of Justice is currently set to hold a third week in a row at No. 1. As we saw from matinees, BvS is coming in slightly lower than industry projections with a $6M Friday on its way to a -58% weekend of $21.6M and running cume by Sunday of $295.1M — which on the high end may come close to tying Disney’s six weekend total on Zootopia. BvS’ worldwide B.O. now stands at $735M, inching closer to that $800M mark. Remember, our sources calculated that in order for BvS to turn a profit, it would need to do about $925M in global ticket sales.
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http://deadline.com/2016/04/the-weekend-box-office-batman-v-superman-melissa-mccarthy-1201734178/
 
...inching closer to that $800M mark.

Oof.
 
in order for BvS to turn a profit, it would need to do about $925M in global ticket sales.

Oof.
 
...is coming in slightly lower than industry projections with a $6M Friday on its way to a -58% weekend of $21.6M.

Oof.
 
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batfreakforever said:
It's funny that bvs is a considered a flop but it's not a flop. It will make $1 billion. MOS made only $668 million in 14 weeks and BvS has already made $723 million in 2 weeks.
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I doubt it will hit $1bill. However, underperforming it may be, but a "flop" it is not.
 
batfreakforever said:
It's funny that bvs is a considered a flop but it's not a flop. It will make $1 billion. MOS made only $668 million in 14 weeks and BvS has already made $723 million in 2 weeks.
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The only people calling it a "flop" are the people who come in here to make the claims you're making
 
You never know. It might reach 1 bill. I'm don't really care if it does or doesn't. I don't own stocks in WB or BvS so I won't lose money. I've seen it 3 times and I love it and I will get to see this universe continue with further movies which are already in pre and post production. We all hope the movies we love make lots of money so we can see these films continue to be produced in their respective universes. It might. Its only week 3.
 
As expected, it is headed for another drop in the 60 percentile range. Deadline is absolutely hilarious. I have never seen an industry report try and put as much spin on bad numbers as Deadline constantly does for this film. It has already plunged well below their estimates of a $25 to $27 million estimate and they try to excuse it and suggest the moral victory here is that BVS may beat the Boss? WB is definitely paying them well to create spin. They are the Fox news of the industry. Fair and unbalanced. LOL! And 'no.... the billion dollar benchmark was lost after it's second weekend collapse. $850 is really the most likely ceiling here. Domestically I thought it could make $350 but it might have to crawl to get to $340 million.
 
batfreakforever said:
You never know. It might reach 1 bill.
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No, it won't. If you don't understand why, you should ask people. We have the data to show why. It's been talked about to death by box office analysts from around the net.
 
The real question is does it beat

Guardians of the Galaxy's domestic total of $333,176,600 ?
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I have calculated it to finish with a total of $330M-333M.

Revising my estimates for the third time on how much BvS will make over the next 4 months domestically:

Week 1: $209 million
Week 2: $75 million (-64%)
Week 3: $30.00 million (-60%)
Week 4: $9.00 million (-70%) *The Jungle Book is uncaged*
Week 5: $4.50 million (-50%)
Week 6: $2.25 million. (-50%)
Week 7: $1 million (-75%) *Captain America: Civil War is deployed*
Weeks 8-16: $3 million

Grand Total: $333.75 million (my previous prediction was 351.1 million)
Lowered my BO forecast by $17.35M

(2.0105 multiplier),
projected to finish 9th on the all time comic book to movie adaptations (http://www.boxofficemojo.com/genres/...adaptation.htm)

Green Lantern had a 2.19 multiplier!

Best case scenario: $348 (2.1x) less than Deadpool (will be ranked #9)
Worst case scenario: $330 (1.99x) more than Guardians Of The Galaxy (will be ranked #12)
I find the truth usually lies in between, but it is certainly fascinating to see what unfolds!
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Deadline certainly do seem to be trying to make the situation for BvS as I really don't think that WB are relishing anything atm, the difference between the BvS and The Boss projections are not that big. It certainly wouldn't take much of a swing for The Boss to pull ahead. One thing I was wondering about if the lack of new films could help The Boss. With pretty much nothing last week, and the drops showing that people aren't keen on seeing BvS multiple times, could people be more willing to see The Boss than normal simply as it is something new? If so it could knock off the projections. About the only thing that might save BvS is that The Boss is R rated.

And another drop in the 60% range is not what WB want to see when the real competition doesn't get released for another week. With the loss of IMAX and a lot of premium screens to Jungle Book next week WB has to be expecting a similar drop.
 
For those who missed it:

Batman v Superman’ Seen Earning Less Profit Than Superman Alone

http://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...-seen-earning-less-profit-than-superman-alone


“Batman v Superman,” one of the most expensive films ever made, is on pace to produce a $278 million profit for Warner Bros. once home video, TV and merchandise proceeds are tallied, according to SNL Kagan analyst Wade Holden. That’s less than the estimated $300 million the studio earned from “Man Of Steel.” It’s also evidence that Warner Bros. has more work to do to make its DC Comics division the unbreakable superhero movie business it needs.
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I think they just have to alter their expectations and maybe even the budgets for marketing. Frankly, it's better to be aiming low right now.
 
batfreakforever said:
You never know. It might reach 1 bill. I'm don't really care if it does or doesn't. I don't own stocks in WB or BvS so I won't lose money. I've seen it 3 times and I love it and I will get to see this universe continue with further movies which are already in pre and post production. We all hope the movies we love make lots of money so we can see these films continue to be produced in their respective universes. It might. Its only week 3.
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No it won't. It will struggle to make $900m. But I know we are all happy that you loved the movie enough to see it 3 times.

Now get out of here and go see it again you crazy kid!
 
batfreakforever said:
It's funny that bvs is a considered a flop but it's not a flop. It will make $1 billion. MOS made only $668 million in 14 weeks and BvS has already made $723 million in 2 weeks.
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No-one is calling it a 'flop', 'bomb' etc. What people are saying is that is has fallen short of even the lower expectations (nothing near higher ones) so it is a disappointment: It's looking unlikely it will hit break even from the theatre run alone, so it needs after sales to see them into the black (which it will get). Some of the revenue from those (TV money) doesn't come for ages though.

Seriously, hitting $800mil plus ww in the theatres is no mean feat, but you have to factor it cost WB plus $400mil to produce & market. Then consider how front loaded it was (looking like a 2x multiplier from opening weekend at best) then things look gloomier still as it has weak legs: Little repeat custom and not a lot of new custom.

The interest was there for sure. The huge opening weekend is testimony to that, but unfortunately it didn't deliver on the promise so it's suffered steep drops since.

Flop? Nope. Disappointment? Definitely.
 
Stark Bauer said:
...is coming in slightly lower than industry projections with a $6M Friday on its way to a -58% weekend of $21.6M.

Oof.
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Yep. Going to fall in that $18-$22M range I projected last week. I've not been surprised by any of this. Its not often a poor movie over performs at the box office -- usually its the other way around and a good movie under performs. I know a handful of people thought I was crazy for calling a 1.99-2.00x multiplier on the OW and $330M dom, $550 foreign.

Most of the insiders are expecting domestic to fall under $340M, too. Another 50% drop this weekend overseas, no way BvS scrolls past $550M foreign.
 
Baba3231 said:
I thought they earned just under 50m from MOS. That was the figure I saw going around anyway
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They did, theatrically. This includes home release and TV distribution too.
 
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For comparison does anyone know how much other SH movies earned their respective companies?
 
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