BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[InCali]

Doubt it, here's an article explaining why

I just hope they've got a solid plan and script for JL and aren't just going forward as planned because it's the lesser of two evils.

 

[The Joker]

There's a term for a film that's poorly received critically, poorly received by audiences, has no legs and barely breaks even: dud. BvS is a dud. It sucks but it's true. No need to call people haters for stating the obvious and trying to understand why that is so.

Exactly.

 

[Stark Bauer]

BvS is a success and that's a good thing folks, cause the DC movies will continue

It still needs to make $900-925M in order to pull a profit from the BO. It hasn't even broke even yet.

Sorry if you were being sarcastic my sarcasm meter is broken

 

[Stark Bauer]

My prediction for this weekend:

7-8 million

5th place behind Zootopia

 

[The Joker]

It still needs to make $900-925M in order to pull a profit from the BO. It hasn't even broke even yet.

It's not likely to either.

 

[Clark-Kent]

It still needs to make $900-925M in order to pull a profit from the BO. It hasn't even broke even yet.

Sorry if you were being sarcastic my sarcasm meter is broken

It broke even at 700 and something

 

[InCali]

My prediction for this weekend:

7-8 million

5th place behind Zootopia

You might not be that far off. I think you're a little low, but, from what I've seen, it could easily go down around 9M. Maybe lower, but the trend would have to deteriorate.

 

[InCali]

It broke even at 700 and something

That's lower than I've heard (but I don't know $#!t about this subject). Do you have a link?

 

[Poni_Boy]

It broke even at 700 and something

Nah

 

[Webhead38]

There are a couple of inherent problems WB has with ignoring the wisdom of replacing Snyder for Justice League. First and foremost, tweaking the film in terms of tone or story direction does not suddenly fix the problems that plague Snyder as a director. He's a poor story teller and seems more entranced with effects shots than story building.

Second, Batman vs. Superman got a free pass on the critical drubbing because the general audience was enticed by the title and showed up in droves that first weekend to see what they hoped would be an iconic story about two heroes fighting with a promise to introduce more. That honeymoon is also over. There was a mass exodus soon after once it was determined, this was not the Batman and Superman of popular culture.

So now instead of having momentum for the Justice League, WB has created a liability for themselves. The general public will not remember the box office, only that BVS was a big letdown from what they were expecting. That memory will still be fresh come the dawn of Justice League. If the trailers LOOK like another Snyder product (which they will) and the critics crater this project like they did BVS, then general audiences WILL likely pay attention to those reviews which could mortally wound this film on it's first weekend.

Take away the flood of blind interest and that frontloaded first weekend and BVS would have been an unmitigated disaster. Justice League does NOT get that advantage when it opens. Anyway you slice it, Justice League is a sequel to BVS with the SAME director. Add any other films related to the brand that could fall short like Suicide Squad and WB is building the perfect storm for an epic drubbing at the box office when Justice League is released.

So what remains of BVS in the coming weeks is likely going to be talked about for quite some time in fan circles. Is it possible this film doesn't stay in theaters long enough to even pass the Fantastic Four at 63 days? It's quite possible given the flood of big movies coming in and BVS running time and evaporating demand.

And how long does WB beat this dead horse in the aftermarket? Will we see multiple versions of this film for the next year effectively cutting into demand for Justice League? Will people be so sick of seeing this movie on shelves in different incarnations that WB dries up their own marketplace? So WB still has a number of big decisions in front of them. Keep reinventing BVS or moving on to forget it? One thing is for sure, if audiences have to remember to much about it, opening day for Justice League might not be as stellar as the suits are hoping.

 

[BatmanVSuperman]

That's lower than I've heard (but I don't know $#!t about this subject). Do you have a link?

He is correct if basing that on the deadline information, but that included expected streaming revenues factored in (movies, merchandise, etc). Technically it would have broke even already, but in terms of just ticket sales I do not believe so.

 

[Sithborg]

I imagine that the break even point shifted a bit as totals came in. Since I imagine they get different amounts from different territories.

 

[The Joker]

Nah

You said you heard 900 mil right?

 

[Erzengel]

Deadline did anywhere between $800 to $925, the latter to make approximately $200M with profit BUT with ancillary items like home video.

 

[Lantern Venom]

There's a term for a film that's poorly received critically, poorly received by audiences, has no legs and barely breaks even: dud. BvS is a dud. It sucks but it's true. No need to call people haters for stating the obvious and trying to understand why that is so.

It's not a dud...yet. Right now, it looks just successful enough to keep the JL/DCEU afloat. Based on the early critical backlash, I thought it might take the WB's DC slate down with it.

 

[WilliamK99]

It's not a dud...yet. Right now, it looks just successful enough to keep the JL/DCEU afloat. Based on the early critical backlash, I thought it might take the WB's DC slate down with it.

It did take WB's DC slate down with it, WB just doesn't know it yet... I would say 70% of all tickets sold opening weekend were sold before the critic embargo ended and word of mouth began becoming negative... You have to hand it to WB, they suckered millions to watch this trash but it will have long lasting impact on future DCEU movies...

 

[DACrowe]

It will not take down Justice League Part One, Wonder Woman, Suicide Squad, Affleck's Batman movie, and probably Aquaman.

But everything after those (i.e. late 2018 and onward?). I think it all will ride on how Justice League is received in November 2017. And if it is anything like this one just was, things could get very dire for DC fans in the next few years. Time will tell.

 

[Erzengel]

Yeah considering too much money has been put into WW and SS is probably going through some final post production stuff. Those are going out regardless of how well BvS did.

The only thing that might be effected is the release date of JL and maybe Affleck's Batman.

 

[Kanon]

There won't be changes to release dates or cancellations. BvS showed that DCEU movies CAN make big money, it just DIDN'T. But COULD HAVE, if it was a better movie. Interest was there, audiences were there OW, but it was so bad it didn't held success. If WB learned any lessons, is that with a little quality control, they have a profitable franchise. They just need to keep an eye on that Snyder fella.

 

[Lantern Venom]

It did take WB's DC slate down with it, WB just doesn't know it yet... I would say 70% of all tickets sold opening weekend were sold before the critic embargo ended and word of mouth began becoming negative... You have to hand it to WB, they suckered millions to watch this trash but it will have long lasting impact on future DCEU movies...

I haven't seen any evidence of that. JL 1 &2, Batman solo, WW solo, and Aquaman solo are still locks at this point. WB is already shooting JL, IIRC.

It will not take down Justice League Part One, Wonder Woman, Suicide Squad, Affleck's Batman movie, and probably Aquaman.

But everything after those (i.e. late 2018 and onward?). I think it all will ride on how Justice League is received in November 2017. And if it is anything like this one just was, things could get very dire for DC fans in the next few years. Time will tell.

That's the million dollar (or in WB's case, billion dollar) question. BvS did enough to keep the short-term prospects alive, but the back half of the DC slate could be a different story.

 

[Kobra]

Well it can't be a disappointment in WB's eyes. JL is already shooting and Snyder is still on board. Yet, after Returns which made $267m on a $65m budget compared to the first film with a gross of $411m on a $48m budget they were quick to push Burton off.

Ultimately, nobody is better qualified to judge this movie's success(or lack of it) than WB. We're talking about one of the biggest companies in the film industry. They have been in the business for many decades and have been responsible for some of the most important and successful films ever. If they actually go forward with JL and keep Snyder on board is simply because they are not that disappointed by the results, otherwise they would do something about it. It's not like they wanna lose money. And you can present all the "evidence" you want, but the reality is that nobody here knows exactly how much money the WB actually spent nor how much money they need to make in order to make a profit.

 

[kedrell]

Of course Universal had a pretty good year last year, too.

Yeah but that was a one-off and everybody knew it. They'll never have another year like that again for a very long time. Usually they place 5th or even lower. Disney consistently places in the top 2 or 3 every year.

 

[kedrell]

Interesting that we are now probably looking at a sub 2x multiplier, if BvS had the same multiplier as MoS it would be looking at over $400M Dom.

MoS had a 2.25X which is pretty crappy to be honest even for a big blockbuster but if BvS got that high a multiplier it's make around $375m DOM.

MoS's actual OW was $128m(same as IM2...yet IM2 made $312m as opposed to MoS's $291m), not that $116m number. I know supporters of MoS like to use the smaller OW number so it looks like MoS had better legs(and thus WOM) than it actually did have.

The fact that the extra $12m was sold thru Walmart and was for Thursday night preview screenings doesn't change that fact. Thursday night preview screenings are now regularly just lumped into the OW for every movie so I don't see why MoS should get an exemption from this practice just to(falsely) make it's performance look better on paper.

 

[kedrell]

Will it beat Spider-man 3 worldwide sales?

Good question. That does seem to be BvS's contemporary both in DOM and WW gross levels. It's a coin toss for both numbers at this point as to which will win.

 

[Orba]

The fact that things like merchandising are being included when talking about it making a profit show the problems this film has experienced. A film should never be reliant on merchandising to when it comes to breaking even, most films don't get that benefit of merchandising, they have to pay for themselves. Merchandising is the cherry on top, that extra bonus that turns movies from profitable to very profitable. You also need to factor in that often the merchandising is done by another part of the company, so while it all still goes to WB it probably won't end up in the books of the division that made the movies.