BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[Apollo]

Slightly different numbers here but it's a former studio exec and he breaks it down pretty throughly.

http://www.forbes.com/sites/robcain...an-v-superman-a-good-investment/#4cc9b8b47d67

I haven't been able to access Forbes.com for a while now. do you have to have a membership or something??

 

[MadVillainy]

I haven't been able to access Forbes.com for a while now. do you have to have a membership or something??

If you have AdBlock they prevent you from visiting the site

 

[Apollo]

If you have AdBlock they prevent you from visiting the site

I have ABP, but I have it disabled everywhere. I still can't get on. It only takes me to a page with the Forbes quote of the day and nothing else.

 

[InCali]

But at least with a Batman and Superman movie it kinda makes sense or at least one would think so. It's better than Disney putting out a John Carter franchise starter movie that needed 800 mill to break even lol

Well, clearly JC lost big money; so in that sense, JC is worse, BUT, BvS wasn't put out solely to make money (though that SURELY was expected). A major lift for BvS was to set the stage for a potential $$$ windfall for the upcoming movies. I think it failed miserably in that regard and now it has, IMO, damaged the franchise. So, JC lost a lot of money and got someone fired. BvS disappointed at the BO AND may have cost WB untold more dollars in the future. JC is dead and buried. So, tell me; what is worse? I don't think it's clear.

EDIT: See Kedrell's post just above WRT X-Men. I think it's pertinent and instructive (and, BELIEVE me Kedrell and I don't see eye to eye on much....just ask him).

 

[Gerontophobe]

So will Jungle Book top BvS domestically? It opened to $103.6M and there really isn't much competition until CW hits; as a family-friendly flick it should have strong legs.

If it plays like Cinderella it will end at $307M but if it is like Maleficent (which opened much lower) it fill finish at $360M. I think something in the middle is probably about right which just so happens to be where BvS is going to finish, so I'm guessing it will be close.

BvS could very well finish fourth (!) among 2016 pre-summer releases, behind Deadpool, Zootopia, and Jungle Book. I think most people here would have pegged it as finishing above all three of those, not to mention competing for top grosser of the entire year.

 

[C. Lee]

A reminder to people...this is the BATMAN V SUPERMAN Box Office prediction thread....if you want to talk about XMEN movies go to their threads.

 

[BatofGotham]

Reading this thread makes me wonder why the Transformers films have always made so much money. If any films should bomb it should be them.

 

[Jekecy]

Reading this thread makes me wonder why the Transformers films have always made so much money. If any films should bomb it should be them.

Mass appeal and entertainment. People can look down them all they want, but it's clear audiences enjoy their experience with all the films for the most part.

 

[BatofGotham]

Mass appeal and entertainment. People can look down them all they want, but it's clear audiences enjoy their experience with all the films for the most part.

Why can't they do that with Batman V Superman? Is it because Snyder made them too dark?

Also why did Warner Bros trust Snyder with the DCEU from the get-go? What qualified him? Was it just Watchman?

 

[Bats123]

Mass appeal and entertainment. People can look down them all they want, but it's clear audiences enjoy their experience with all the films for the most part.

It's really interesting how ALL 4 Transformers movies have better cinemascores than BvS, makes you realize the critics don't really affect the box office...

 

[kedrell]

Reading this thread makes me wonder why the Transformers films have always made so much money. If any films should bomb it should be them.

You gotta hand it to Bay. He basically found a new audience that hadn't been served and gave them what they want. I don't know who these people are as I've never heard anyone speak well of the TF franchise. But clearly they are out there and they eat this stuff up with a spoon. That's why something abysmally reviewed like TF2 can still have nearly a 4X multiplier which indicated extremely good WOM. My only question is, who are these people? Where are these people? They clearly are not your typical moviegoers. Oh, no doubt there's some overlap but the vast majority of them do not run in our circles. Same thing happened in 2003 with Gibson's PotC. That was an entirely underserved audience he found and they made that dreck the highest grossing R-rated movie of all time. So it's always good to realize that no matter how big a movie is...even Avatar size, there will always be far more people out there who just don't watch that kind of movie and never bothered to see it. Most people are not moviegoers at all, much less regular movie goers. So there can be massive hidden audiences out there for the person who knows how to find them and market a film directly to them.

 

[kedrell]

Why can't they do that with Batman V Superman? Is it because Snyder made them too dark?

The Comic Book/Superhero genre has long been very susceptible to critical analysis and WOM because the audience who likes that genre tends to put a high premium on good storytelling and character development in addition to good action and SFX and all that.

Also why did Warner Bros trust Snyder with the DCEU from the get-go? What qualified him? Was it just Watchman?

What qualified him is that he was the one who said yes after many said no(including Affleck himself). They settled for him.

 

[kedrell]

It's really interesting how ALL 4 Transformers movies have better cinemascores than BvS, makes you realize the critics don't really affect the box office...

Their effect is different from genre to genre. The pure, braindead, CGI Bayhem type film they have virtually no effect over the audience for that as I doubt most of them even know what Rotten Tomatoes is, much less care to consult it before making a purchase.

Comic book/superhero films are entirely different. They live and die by the critics.

 

[Kahran Ramsus]

The Comic Book/Superhero genre has long been very susceptible to critical analysis and WOM because the audience who likes that genre tends to put a high premium on good storytelling and character development in addition to good action and SFX and all that.

The sheer number of CBMs may play a role too. If the current one isn't getting good reviews/WOM, just wait three months and there is a good chance there will be one that will. There is no reason for superhero fans to 'settle' right now.

 

[kedrell]

So will Jungle Book top BvS domestically? It opened to $103.6M and there really isn't much competition until CW hits; as a family-friendly flick it should have strong legs.

If it plays like Cinderella it will end at $307M but if it is like Maleficent (which opened much lower) it fill finish at $360M. I think something in the middle is probably about right which just so happens to be where BvS is going to finish, so I'm guessing it will be close.

BvS could very well finish fourth (!) among 2016 pre-summer releases, behind Deadpool, Zootopia, and Jungle Book. I think most people here would have pegged it as finishing above all three of those, not to mention competing for top grosser of the entire year.

At this point I'd say almost certainly, both DOM and WW. So before CW even opens that'll make 3 times BvS will have been beaten by other films DOM(Deadpool, Zootopia, TJB) and twice WW(the latter 2...unless Deadpool just blows up in Japan with like $125m, but that's unlikely though it should do fine there).

 

[Jekecy]

Why can't they do that with Batman V Superman? Is it because Snyder made them too dark?

To their (dis)credit, they've been attempting to go beyond simple means of entertainment and opt for a more heavy-handed narrative which may not always translate to a mass audience. Honestly, I do think Zack has it in him to just deliver a brainless blockbuster epic. For better or for worse, he doesn't want to.

You gotta hand it to Bay. He basically found a new audience that hadn't been served and gave them what they want. I don't know who these people are as I've never heard anyone speak well of the TF franchise. But clearly they are out there and they eat this stuff up with a spoon. That's why something abysmally reviewed like TF2 can still have nearly a 4X multiplier which indicated extremely good WOM. My only question is, who are these people? Where are these people? They clearly are not your typical moviegoers. Oh, no doubt there's some overlap but the vast majority of them do not run in our circles.

"Our circles" as in the geek/fanboy/cinephile community? We are in the minority there. A franchise doesn't consistently do a billion dollars without typical moviegoers. Transformers is one of those rare properties where it can hit every major demographic out there.

 

[kedrell]

To their (dis)credit, they've been attempting to go beyond simple means of entertainment and opt for a more heavy-handed narrative which may not always translate to a mass audience. Honestly, I do think Zack has it in him to just deliver a brainless blockbuster epic. For better or for worse, he doesn't want to.


"Our circles" as in the geek/fanboy/cinephile community? We are in the minority there. A franchise doesn't consistently do a billion dollars without typical moviegoers. Transformers is one of those rare properties where it can hit every major demographic out there.

Except anyone who wants to think extensively about what they are consuming...i.e. us.

And I've always known we are in the minority but superhero movies are also hitting all those major demographics as well yet they are more subject to critical consensus than stuff like TF. Just like TF they also have a massive audience which goes far beyond us. So the obvious question to me is, why do they(the casual viewer who never really thinks much about what he/she watches) react differently to these two ginormous properties? With one they give it a complete pass on having to try with story or character yet with the other they demand the movies perform these tasks? Or could it be that they are not the same audience really. Obviously as I said there is some overlap but they might also be whole sections that would never cross over and watch the other type of movie. I dunno, it's something to ponder.

 

[Zing79]

Not to mention the bottom acceptable profit for a movie like this is 10% return on investment. Assuming $400 mil is accurate to the dollar BvS would need to make $40 mil profit to be considered an acceptable return.

Please, do not give people in this thread an out, they can cling to, to cite this movie as any kind of passable financial endeavour.

Forthcoming words 100% aren't directed at you - because you know better.

This movie needed well over 1B AT THE Box Office so that execs could deliver on a promise to stock holders who bought into this whole DCU movie deal.

Investors saw what was happening at Disney, they thought they were getting in on the ground floor of that. That Time Warner as a whole would be worth more then Disney after this movie, (and its effects reverberated through the company).

This movie doesn't exist in a bubble. Executives. Investors (past and recent) bet on this as something that would prop up the company as a whole. Raise the company into more prosperous times.

What do people think will happen when end of fiscal comes out, and that didn't happen at WB (and as a result TW)?

Do your research and find out how large TW is. How much money this franchise - these comic movies - need to turn as a profit for that money to impact Time Warner's bottom line. 40 million profit might as well go down as a rounding error. It needs to be at least 10x that amount for the investment community to notice BvS's positive impact on TW.

This movie needed Avengers like money. Period. Full Stop. No Negotiation, No debate. Turning a profit doesn't mean **** in a stock driven world. Educate yourself if you think otherwise.

Debate whether you love this movie in another thread. Play spin the bottle with Forbes, your friends, and the B.O. numbers until it lands on something that gets you in that closet and kiss-happy. Because I can virtually guarantee this movie will lead to a whole lot of stock going down down down when this financial disaster gets folded into another so so year at TW - INSTEAD of financials coming out with a sizeable increase in profit thanks to BvS.

That is what was at stake here. It's also why JL will STILL happen. And why investors will eat up whatever execs tell them. What other choice will investors have? Sell the stock at a loss? That's not how it works.

Apologists will still get their way on this (Justice League will happen). But certainly not because this thing was any kind of passable success financially. But because business dictates, everyone involved doesn't want to lose money they invested on a dream.

 

[Logan0327]

Why can't they do that with Batman V Superman? Is it because Snyder made them too dark?

Also why did Warner Bros trust Snyder with the DCEU from the get-go? What qualified him? Was it just Watchman?

transformer films are family friendly and entertaining for the most part

DC has to wake up and learn to appeal to mass audiences thats why the DCEU is under performing at the box office

you can be serious and still be fun

 

[Lantern Venom]

Yes it is. BvS is a dud. It has nothing to do with the rest of DC's movies. Poorly received critically, poorly received by audiences, no legs, barely breaks even at the box office: dud. All that has already passed and won't change. It is what it is. MOS was a profitable yet disappointing movie. Green Lantern was a bomb. BvS is a dud. A dying quail.

You're overselling the point. It was a mild disappointment at the BO, that's all.

Yep. The mental gymnastics some folks are going through to not use the word "failure" must be exhausting.

When I think "failure", I think about movies like Jonah Hex and RIPD. Those were true failures, not divisive movies like BvS which aren't everything that everyone wanted.

I don't get the "lack of effort" or "shameless cash grab" comments. It's pretty clear to me WB went all out and swung for the fences with BvS. They wanted it to be a massive, well received hit. They just didn't succeed. But there's nothing about BvS that screams cheap or uninspired like say, Fox's treatment of F4.

Well said.

No one claims it's a bomb except the people acting like its a success. It still hasn't broken even. Not sure it will at this point. It's a dud, not a bomb.

Whether you say "dud" or "bomb", that's just trivial rhetoric. BvS underperformed, which didn't surprise most of the Hype, but it's not a catastrophic failure.

Failure? Not at all. An underperformer? Most probably.

True words.

I think I'm confused by the mild hostility.

The vitriol hasn't abated at all since the opening week. I've seen people on Facebook acting like Snyder dropkicked a litter of newborn kittens into a volcano.

transformer films are family friendly and entertaining for the most part

DC has to wake up and learn to appeal to mass audiences thats why the DCEU is under performing at the box office

you can be serious and still be fun

The Transformers film series is mostly mindless garbage. BvS, at the very least, made an honest effort to do something worthwhile.

 

[Micromind]

It looks like the move could earn 850 mil. worldwide.

(as of Apr. 17, 2016)

Domestic: $311,311,730 37.6%
+ Foreign: $516,000,000 62.4%
----------------------------
= Worldwide: $827,311,730

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=superman2015.htm

 

[Mutato]

Who are you, The Guard? This box office dud and critical failure doesn't warrant all that feeble fisking.

 

[kedrell]

 

[kedrell]

It looks like the move could earn 850 mil. worldwide.

(as of Apr. 17, 2016)

Domestic: $311,311,730 37.6%
+ Foreign: $516,000,000 62.4%
----------------------------
= Worldwide: $827,311,730

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/movies/?id=superman2015.htm

Almost certain now that the final result will be somewhere between $850m and $875m WW.

 

[rogue trooper]

transformer films are family friendly and entertaining for the most part

DC has to wake up and learn to appeal to mass audiences thats why the DCEU is under performing at the box office

you can be serious and still be fun

We clearly saw a different film you and I. Oh, well...