BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - Part 15

[MadVillainy]

I'm going to go with:
1. Jungle Book ($80M)
2. Barbershop ($25M)
3. Criminal ($15M, although it looks awful)
4. The Boss ($13M)
5. BvS ($11M)
6. Zootopia ($10M, edging ever closer to BvS)

I forgot Criminal is even coming out. I don't think it breaks the top 5. Costner hasn't had a starring hit in how long? and Reynolds is in the movie I think as a cameo because his name isn't even on the poster and besides he hasn't had a hit that wasnt Deadpool in...ever.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Criminal is getting horrible early reviews.

OTOH with 35 reviews in on RT, JB is at 100%.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Happy for Favreau. Dude deserves more credit.

 

[wobbly]

$1.47mil actual for Monday.

 

[Kanon]

$1.47mil actual for Monday.

Pretty low, has a fair chance of not reaching 300 tomorrow

 

[Orba]

$1.47mil actual for Monday.

Ouch, $298.09M Dom so still nearly $2M needed. The Tuesday totals won't get it to $300M I would think.

 

[JOE]

Looking at the RT scores you see movies below 50 or over 90, there's NO medium. Very hit or miss with the critics recently.

Edit nvm, it'll reach 300M by Thursday/Friday for sure right?

 

[Orba]

Looking at the RT scores you see movies below 50 or over 90, there's NO medium. Very hit or miss with the critics recently.

Edit nvm, it'll reach 300M by Thursday/Friday for sure right?

It should get a boost from the Tuesday discounts but iffy if it will get quite enough, the Wednesday ticket sales should definitely get it there though.

 

[InCali]

Looking at the RT scores you see movies below 50 or over 90, there's NO medium. Very hit or miss with the critics recently.

Edit nvm, it'll reach 300M by Thursday/Friday for sure right?

It'll get there tomorrow for sure (Wed). Unlike our, now, missing friend, I wasn't so sure about it reaching 300M today. Someone who was almost wrong about BvS box office was really right. t: As far as Criminal goes, the cast looked good. I'm a big Oldman fan, but admit he takes some roles that leave me scratching my head. So does Gene Hackman.

 

[FunkMiller]

$1.47mil actual for Monday.

Okay, I'm starting to feel sorry for this movie now.

 

[Erzengel]

That means there's a chance it won't break $300 today and it'll be tomorrow.

 

[The Joker]

It's crazy looking at this movie struggle against Melissa McCarthy.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I forgot Criminal is even coming out. I don't think it breaks the top 5. Costner hasn't had a starring hit in how long? and Reynolds is in the movie I think as a cameo because his name isn't even on the poster and besides he hasn't had a hit that wasnt Deadpool in...ever.

Costner is pretty consistent when he’s in an action/thriller flick. Opening weekends for his last few: 3 Days to Kill ($12.2M, 2014), Jack Ryan ($15.5M, 2014, supporting role), Mr. Brooks ($10M, 2007), and The Guardian ($18M, 2006). I grant you he’s been a bit hit or miss in other things but they’ve tended to be low budget sports flicks. It may not hit my prediction but it will still give BvS a challenge I think.

$1.47mil actual for Monday.

That’s actually surprisingly low. BvS has actually done okay on weekdays relative to F7 (its mostly just sucked on weekends), falling no lower than 12% less. This Monday is 27% lower and thus more on par with how BvS has done on weekends. If BvS continues to be 20%-30% lower than F7, it will finish around $340M, but I doubt BvS will manage even that this weekend since F7 fell only 38.9% in its fourth frame.

 

[Gerontophobe]

That means there's a chance it won't break $300 today and it'll be tomorrow.

If it has the same Tuesday bump it did last week (which actually wasn't too bad), then its total will be at less than $24K short of $300M. If its anywhere close (and maybe even if it isn't), WB is going to just round up.

 

[Webhead38]

If BvS continues to be 20%-30% lower than F7, it will finish around $340M, but I doubt BvS will manage even that this weekend since F7 fell only 38.9% in its fourth frame.

Remember BVS loses all of it's premiums screens for 3D and IMAX this coming weekend. That certainly will skew the average fall to higher percentages when you couple that with a drop in regular screenings in addition to real competition finally hitting with the Jungle Book amongst many others. It's amazing but at the start of BVS' THIRD full week, it is literally withering to a crawl. This film has been dropped faster than any other film in the Batman franchise. And that's without real competition or in a competitive seasonal release.

 

[Erzengel]

And this may be the last weekend for BvS overseas correct? Last weekend there were only 19 territories being tracked for BvS.

 

[akfj]

It's crazy looking at this movie struggle against Melissa McCarthy.

Is it too late to make her the villain in Justice League?

 

[SheldonLevene]

Someone clear something up for me. I keep reading BvS needs to make $800M to break even. Where is this number being derived from?

 

[Black Adam]

Who would've thought, a few months back, Batman v Superman would be struggling against a Melissa McCarthy movie?

It's just embarrassing.

 

[Erzengel]

Someone clear something up for me. I keep reading BvS needs to make $800M to break even. Where is this number being derived from?

Think Deadline and Variety both estimated $800 million based on $250 production cost and a minimum of $150 marketing costs, that's what the estimate is.

They do benefit from additional merchandising and upcoming video sales BUT, to rely on that to put you over kinda speaks to how disappointing the revenue is.

 

[SheldonLevene]

Think Deadline and Variety both estimated $800 million based on $250 production cost and a minimum of $150 marketing costs, that's what the estimate is +/-.

Cool gotcha. So it's an inexact science, but there's some method behind the number.

 

[Erzengel]

Studios don't usually publish their actual profit. I think TASM2 because of the Sony leaks, they only profited around $65 million. TASM2 had a $230M budget and probably a north of a $100M marketing cost. The Force Awakens, released it's numbers because when you make as much as they do why not, so they did $2B with a $900M profit.

 

[Webhead38]

Here's some math to offer context on this collapse. Back in 1997 when Batman & Robin was released, the average ticket price was $4.59. Today it is $8.70. Add in the cost of 3D IMAX screens and that ticket price is over $15 for those screens. On the 18th day of release BVS has 1,160 extra screens showing their movie than B&R did in 1997. What is the per screen average between each of those films? You would expect it to be substantial given the huge difference in number of screens, the inflation of ticket prices plus the advantage of 3D IMAX showings...well... On the 18th day BVS has a $359 per screen average. B&R back in 1997 had a $341 per screen average. All of those advantages and BVS only beats B&R by $18.00 per screen? WOW... Now that is a collapse.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Okay, I'm starting to feel sorry for this movie now.

Me too. Like webhead38 says, it's getting into B&R territory. That's just not fair.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Is it too late to make her the villain in Justice League?

It's been noted before but she would seriously make a great Granny Goodness.