BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - - - - - - - Part 16

[InCali]

So WW impacts it but BvS doesn't?



If anything WW will have less of an impact because it's an almost completely different creative team.

What the hell are they going to put in the trailer for JL?

"From the director and writer that ruined Batman and Superman's first on-screen team up, comes their second on screen team up"?

I think BvS already HAS impacted JL; negatively. WW may help if it's really good.

 

[FunkMiller]

Audiences hated this movie, and its something everyone needs to grapple with and ask why. If JL is not drastically different, it will flop hard.

No point pretending otherwise.

And that's the thing. Many people did hate this movie after seeing it. The steep drop-off and bad WOM confirm it. And the film had a horrible foundation with the poor reviews (now at 27% on RT). Massive changes are needed to salvage JL.

 

[InCali]

And that's the thing. Many people did hate this movie after seeing it. The steep drop-off and bad WOM confirm it. And the film had a horrible foundation with the poor reviews (now at 27% on RT). Massive changes are needed to salvage JL.

Whether you personally liked it or not (I kind of did, but not greatly...I never thought of it as the classic some were pushing it as), isn't as important as the public perception; that's where the real problem for JL comes in. The critics bashed it, there was poor word of mouth, and the director is probably better known than he's ever been (not a good thing in this case). That's where the real damage to JL comes from. WW may be able to partially repair the damage, but THIS was the high profile intro to JL and not only did it under perform at the BO, it soured a lot of people on the DC/Warner Bros vision for this property.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

So it will finish up with under 900?

 

[SomeOldGuy]

So it will finish up with under 900?

Yup.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

Yup.

Oh well... This upsets me but what can you do.

 

[Bruce Malone]

And that's the thing. Many people did hate this movie after seeing it. The steep drop-off and bad WOM confirm it. And the film had a horrible foundation with the poor reviews (now at 27% on RT). Massive changes are needed to salvage JL.

There's one painstakingly obvious change WB can make but seems incapable of dong for some reason?

I don't know if there's ever been a director to hurt the marketability of a film? but I think Zack Snyder may be a first.

As much as Bay gets derided he actually has a pretty strong fan-base himself who like hearing his name attached.

 

[InCali]

There's one painstakingly obvious change WB can make but seems incapable of dong for some reason?

I don't know if there's ever been a director to hurt the marketability of a film? but I think Zack Snyder may be a first.

As much as Bay gets derided he actually has a pretty strong fan-base himself who like hearing his name attached.

I think you are right about Zack. I liked a few of his movies (and thought BvS was okay too), but this is the kind of notoriety that no one needs. It's like he's almost as big as the characters in the movie....unfortunately.

and I know you're right about Bay; and it has me completely and utterly baffled. Maybe I'm just seeing things through Crapformers: Age of SuckStinkTion glasses, but I can't help it. The thought that there will be more is almost painful (and would be painful if I was forced to watch it....unless it is WAY better than his last effort....well, if you want to categorize that as an effort.).

 

[SomeOldGuy]

$421k Wednesday. $320.9 million new total.

 

[Loden Greatstorm]

$421k Wednesday. $320.9 million new total.

Not good numbers.

 

[InCali]

$421k Wednesday. $320.9 million new total.

Where do you think it'll end up. Below 330M I'm thinking. It's not getting those precipitous drops anymore, but next weekend, I think it's going to have a not so good few days. I'm thinking it could be down around 1M total for 5/6-8.

 

[MadVillainy]

There's one painstakingly obvious change WB can make but seems incapable of dong for some reason?

I don't know if there's ever been a director to hurt the marketability of a film? but I think Zack Snyder may be a first.

As much as Bay gets derided he actually has a pretty strong fan-base himself who like hearing his name attached.

Shamylan for sure.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Where do you think it'll end up. Below 330M I'm thinking. It's not getting those precipitous drops anymore, but next weekend, I think it's going to have a not so good few days. I'm thinking it could be down around 1M total for 5/6-8.

Early weekend projections have it around 325 after Sunday but with CW firing up stateside next week I don't see much life left in it. Maybe 331 total? Maybe even 332 or 333 after the dollar theaters to just hit that 2x multiplier?

 

[Mysteryman]

I don't know if anybody has ever really studied the negative impact of a director on the box office.
I am not sure how you would quantify that.

 

[MadVillainy]

All I know is they didn't put Shamylan's name on After Earth...but surprisingly they did on the poster for The Visit.

Also I remember when the trailer for that movie he produced "Devil" came out there were audible snickers and lip smacking when Shamylan's name came up. I seem to recall hearing similar reports

That's the only example though. Snyder is far from that.

 

[Gerontophobe]

I don't know if anybody has ever really studied the negative impact of a director on the box office.
I am not sure how you would quantify that.

There are tracking firms that quantify the value of different individuals (actors, directors) to an individual project and those values can be negative. I would love to see their numbers for what Snyder's "value" for JL is.

 

[InCali]

Shamylan for sure.

I forgot about him. Prolly so.

 

[InCali]

Early weekend projections have it around 325 after Sunday but with CW firing up stateside next week I don't see much life left in it. Maybe 331 total? Maybe even 332 or 333 after the dollar theaters to just hit that 2x multiplier?

That would make this weekend about 3.7M - Only a 33% drop. I know the drops get less and less as you go out, but that seems rather low to me. Last week's drop was about 39%.

I think it's going to be pretty much a dead heat for Zootopia and BvS DOM BO finals. BvS has a shade under a 3M lead going into this weekend. Last weekend it gained about 1M and about 200K during the week. I think maybe an edge to Zootopia. There's a new animated movie out this weekend, but it's reviewing worse than BvS.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Yeah, $3.7 million seemed optimistic to me as well but it did better than I thought last weekend so...

BvS dropping 736 (-24%) screens this weekend, but still on 2,330.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/counts/chart/?yr=2016&wk=18&p=.htm

 

[XDream]

I forgot about him. Prolly so.

Let's we forget that he made After Earth and there was little, if any, promotion he made the film cause of the ****storm known as The Last Airbender.



Man that would of been awesome if done right :'(

 

[Man_of_Tomorrow]

There's one painstakingly obvious change WB can make but seems incapable of dong for some reason?

I don't know if there's ever been a director to hurt the marketability of a film? but I think Zack Snyder may be a first.

As much as Bay gets derided he actually has a pretty strong fan-base himself who like hearing his name attached.

M. Night shamalan, his name won't be used in advertisements any more.

 

[SuperAl]

There's one painstakingly obvious change WB can make but seems incapable of dong for some reason?

I don't know if there's ever been a director to hurt the marketability of a film? but I think Zack Snyder may be a first.

As much as Bay gets derided he actually has a pretty strong fan-base himself who like hearing his name attached.

never heard of M. Night i see?

 

[AndrewOz]

LOL @ the 2 billion predictions.

Don't LOL the $2b. Nobody could've predicted that Snyder would turn in such a train wreck of a movie...
Except those who did of course, factoring the massive appeal of the properties, but applying Watchmen BO reception after that.
I didn't imagine he'd try and Watchmen the DCEU so blatantly.
Avatar's around $2.8b with a very simple tale that was was very effectively and compellingly told. Simple yet believable and consistent characters.
Combine the most inspirational and recognisable IP's on the planet with a solid, tight, compelling narrative and the glossy visuals of Avatar (not Snyder's washed out palette), with Snyder's action - I could easily see this passing the $2b mark.
But here's the difference - Avatar had a $77m domestic OW, representing only 10% of it's total. This thing had legs for miles. Even more overseas.

Compare that with BvS at $166m OW, 52% of the total when it's all but finished. If it was only half as enduring as Avatar, with OW at 20% of the total, the DBO would be an amazing $830m. Even a modest 40% (AoU was 41.7, TA was 33.3) would make it $415m.

If it wasn't so heavily front loaded, if people had decided to wait for peer feedback after the terrible critical reviews, I doubt it would've cracked $70m OW.
This track record will definitely impact JL. A modest OW won't hurt it if it's really good. Long legs would carry it past this mess.
If it isn't really good, it will sink like a stone.

As a lifelong DC fan, this is a tragedy bordering on farce.
Damn you WB. You maniacs. Damn you all to Hell.

 

[MadVillainy]

I mean even if the movie was received really REALLY well I doubt it wouldve made 2 billion.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

Honestly? I think this film will impact both Wonder Woman and Justice League's box office performances. It simply boils down to how much. General audiences don't always differentiate between projects "by director"--they go by genre and series affiliation.

Now that being said, I don't believe the impact will be quite as bad for WW because Patty Jenkins is involved and if the WOM is good, it will wash off any lingering bad taste fans and critics may still have from BvS. But if the WW film is also mediocre? Forget it: Justice League will take a hit for sure.

But sadly, that chain reaction will have started with this film. These films are all part of a franchise.