BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[jokesonm3]

You're right. Still, MoS eventually released in a total of 72 countries, which isn't far off The Avengers' 79 (http://www.imdb.com/title/tt0848228/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_ov_inf ) so I don't see why Marvel's releases are considered "global" but DC's aren't?

And if you consider opening on the same weekend as a plus point, Avengers had quite a staggered release and it didn't seem to hinder its total gross.

Again, I'm not an expert in release patterns, so maybe I'm missing something.

Batman v Superman is definitely gonna open in near all the markets as well, just like any other blockbuster film the difference is how many release countries in the same week.

BvS opens on Easter 2016 and a ton of the biggest film markets on the planet celebrate Easter so it's best to get as many release dates near Easter as possible as opposed to spreading it out.

 

[Silliminite]

Batman v Superman is definitely gonna open in near all the markets as well, just like any other blockbuster film the difference is how many release countries in the same week.

BvS opens on Easter 2016 and a ton of the biggest film markets on the planet celebrate Easter so it's best to get as many release dates near Easter as possible as opposed to spreading it out.

So the reason you consider BvS opening in as many territories as possible on the same weekend a positive, is because it's Easter weekend. Alright.

I don't know if it'll affect the total gross that much, but it'll certainly work towards creating increased global hype for the film. Also, the international OW (including North American OW) will be spectacular.

 

[jokesonm3]

Im hoping that at least 63 countries opening on that Easter Weekend, that's the same amount of first week openings that Furious 7 had for Easter 2015 last year.

 

[KingKane88]

I'll take a stab at this...

With MOS i predicted (here on SHH!) 700mil, it did 668mil. Not far off.

With BvS im gonna go with my gut as i did with MOS, first numbers that came to my head was 1.2 billion, possibly a bit more but will not reach the 1.3 mark, just a feeling based off my amazing psychic abilities! lol

 

[rogbngp]

I still think that the wild card will be whether the film gets an additional extended cut theater release next the summer. That would probably only happen if the initial theater release rakes it in to begin with. But then, if moviegoers are gaga about the movie to begin with, and they get an additional release a few months later including an additional 30-45 minutes of footage? Charles Roven has said that something like this is possible.* I doubt it would beat Avatar but it could crack $2B. Again, that is just a perfect storm wish, though.

*Roven: “I don’t know if you’ll ever get the 4-hour version, but there may be something that’s coming along that might be slightly less long than that.”

 

[metaphysician]

What would make anyone think for a second that BvS would get an "extended cut theater release"? Virtually no movies do.

 

[I Am The Knight]

Besides, even when they do (like Avatar) it doesn't amount to much. I believe Avatar only made like an extra 10 million with it's extended edition re-release. I could be wrong though.

 

[miltonh]

Right now I'd say OW 160-175M and weak legs so OW will count for 42-45% of DOM total.

OS 500-550M and 140-170M from China (don't forget SW7 is underperforming there and will probably with with just 120-130; they really like colourful VFX extravaganzas so BvS could look too 'dark' and 'serious').

So overall I think 1B will happen but it's gonna be tight.

 

[Clark-Kent]

I think it might not hit a billion worldwide, but still don't believe it is the film that has too. I think JL needs to do the billion but coming off of MOS, anything approaching 900 million should be more than considered a huge success.

 

[miltonh]

I think it might not hit a billion worldwide, but still don't believe it is the film that has too. I think JL needs to do the billion but coming off of MOS, anything approaching 900 million should be more than considered a huge success.

Well, I'm sure it has too. They definitely spent close to 500M on this movie (production + marketing budget) and they were trying to promote it as the year's biggest movie event. Under 1B would be a huge dissapointment.

 

[Flint Marko]

I'd argue this absolutely needs to hit a billion, and it most likely will.

 

[samsnee]

I'll go with 1.1 to 1.2 billion. I do think domestically it will probably only do 550M in the US.

 

[miltonh]

I'd argue this absolutely needs to hit a billion, and it most likely will.

We'll see. Remember I was optimistic about ASM2 (both quality and box office) and thought "the first one was decent and this one will deffo increase" but I know reactions after trailers / photos / clips outside of fan forums were meh and then what happened... Really think Snyder has to deliver a very good movie or WB will have big troubles.

 

[miltonh]

I'll go with 1.1 to 1.2 billion. I do think domestically it will probably only do 550M in the US.

Only? t:t:

 

[Angel0fDeath]

Well, I'm sure it has too. They definitely spent close to 500M on this movie (production + marketing budget) and they were trying to promote it as the year's biggest movie event. Under 1B would be a huge dissapointment.

 

[I Am The Knight]

I'll go with 1.1 to 1.2 billion. I do think domestically it will probably only do 550M in the US.

"Only" making 550 million domestic would be freaking great. I'm not sure how much you're expecting

 

[Flint Marko]

We'll see. Remember I was optimistic about ASM2 (both quality and box office) and thought "the first one was decent and this one will deffo increase" but I know reactions after trailers / photos / clips outside of fan forums were meh and then what happened... Really think Snyder has to deliver a very good movie or WB will have big troubles.

Obviously the movie will have to be good to warrant the reception WB is anticipating. I merely said that anything less than a billion is going to be viewed as a disappointment. For example Sony expected ASM 2 to be the highest grossing Spider-man film yet and look how that turned out.

 

[miltonh]

Well, Warners spend on marketing more than any other studio. They definitely spent 150-200M on BVS plus Man of Steel production budget was 225M. Just add Affleck's basic salary of 20M and it's already 245. So hard to imagine BvS production budget is under 270M.

 

[rogbngp]

What would make anyone think for a second that BvS would get an "extended cut theater release"? Virtually no movies do.

That would probably be a first of they did, lol. Maybe it would be warranted in the dream scenario I mentioned.

I thought I had read somewhere that DoFP released the Rogue Cut in theaters (if so, it was surely a limited release) in addition to the home market. Can't find it now, though.

 

[I Am The Knight]

Well, Warners spend on marketing more than any other studio. They definitely spent 150-200M on BVS plus Man of Steel production budget was 225M. Just add Affleck's basic salary of 20M and it's already 245. So hard to imagine BvS production budget is under 270M.

Didn't know Affleck commanded such a price tag.

 

[miltonh]

Didn't know Affleck commanded such a price tag.

It was mentioned in Forbes' Top10 Highest Paid Actors of 2015. Wouldn't surprise me if the movie is successful to see Affleck make 40-50M from BvS. But it's clear WB wanted to stay connected to him...

 

[Jekecy]

Obviously the movie will have to be good to warrant the reception WB is anticipating. I merely said that anything less than a billion is going to be viewed as a disappointment. For example Sony expected ASM 2 to be the highest grossing Spider-man film yet and look how that turned out.

Looking back at how Sony marketed that film, and the constant teases to the future with Sinister Six, it's cringing.

DC is already ramping up hype for JL, I hope to god they don't fall into that same trap.

 

[Flint Marko]

Looking back at how Sony marketed that film, and the constant teases to the future with Sinister Six, it's cringing.

DC is already ramping up hype for JL, I hope to god they don't fall into that same trap.

Yeah I hope it doesn't come across like I was trying to compare the two studios and films as that was certainly not my intention - ASM 2 is absolutely pathetic and deserved to spectacuarly fail.

 

[John Locke]

Looking back at how Sony marketed that film, and the constant teases to the future with Sinister Six, it's cringing.

DC is already ramping up hype for JL, I hope to god they don't fall into that same trap.

The difference between JL and Sinister Six is JL's going to get made regardless of how well BvS does. I don't see WB or any major studio cancelling a major blockbuster that starts filming a month or two after the first one is released.

 

[Angel0fDeath]

Well, Warners spend on marketing more than any other studio. They definitely spent 150-200M on BVS plus Man of Steel production budget was 225M. Just add Affleck's basic salary of 20M and it's already 245. So hard to imagine BvS production budget is under 270M.

We definitely have no clue how much they spent on the movie, so let's not pretend like we do.