BvS Batman V Superman Box Office Prediction - Part 2

[Legendver2]

Bitterness of not reaching the $700M mark or god forbid the billion dollar mark is the best reason i could think of honestly.

Or the better answer: haters gon' hate

 

[jokesonm3]

Or the better answer: haters gon' hate

I'll drink to that honesty.

 

[JOE]

Somehow I don't understand why some would consider MoS a disappointment. They speak about it like it bombed, despite it out grossing all of Marvel's non-Avengers Phase 1 films. Like all of a sudden, because Avengers broke a billion, somehow Superman, being the first film of the DCEU, and coming off a damaged rep from SR, is expected to make a billion for it to be considered a success. Either fanboys are just using that to bring down Superman, or Superman's iconic status somehow warrants that extremely high (but unrealistic) expectation. $670m is nothing to laugh at. For comparison, IM, the first film in MCU, made $585m.

I think people were more disappointed with the movie critically than box office numbers go. 670M was a solid start to the DCEU. It did it's job by kickstarting all these other movies we're all blessed to have. I didn't enjoy the movie, but it's by no means a box office failure.

 

[fake]

I thought that was based off of ticket pre sales so far and estimates

No, tracking comes online 3 weeks before release. Deadpool tickets went on sale today, they have no ticket sales baseline to determine tracking. Tracking is done through audience polling and consists of "Unaided recall" "Aided Recall" and "First Choice" against "Definite interest", "Somewhat interested" and "Not interested". So if the audience members can recall that BvS is opening soon and show interest, that increases tracking.

It has literally nothing to do with ticket sales.

Here is what the grid looks like

Total / Men -25 / Men +25 / Women -25 / Women +25 (these are the 4 Quadrants everyone talks about)

Unaided Awareness: 36 39 42 31 30
Total Awareness: 92 96 93 90 90
Definite Interest: 63 74 69 56 53
First Choice: 30 42 40 19 21

 

[JOE]

No, tracking comes online 3 weeks before release. Deadpool tickets went on sale today, they have no ticket sales baseline to determine tracking. Tracking is done through audience polling and consists of "Unaided recall" "Aided Recall" and "First Choice" against "Definite interest", "Somewhat interested" and "Not interested". So if the audience members can recall that BvS is opening soon and show interest, that increases tracking.

It has literally nothing to do with ticket sales.

Here is what the grid looks like

Total / Men -25 / Men +25 / Women -25 / Women +25 (these are the 4 Quadrants everyone talks about)

Unaided Awareness: 36 39 42 31 30
Total Awareness: 92 96 93 90 90
Definite Interest: 63 74 69 56 53
First Choice: 30 42 40 19 21

Excellent post!

 

[Marvin]

If Man of Steel grossed 1 billion we'd be in the "Man of Steel 2 Box Office Thread" right now instead...

And if MOS2 had grossed a billion we'd be in a a MOS3 board instead of whatever crossover that could have potentially been produced. It's an endless cycle. It's like asking if Both Cap and Thor made a billion on their first outing they'd get sequels prior to Avengers? Or would it play out exactly as it did?

Point being, there are a litany of reasons why this crossover makes sense beyond the box office performance of mos:
-Including helping batman and wonderwoman start strong and not have to endure the phase one tribulations. Especially in the case of the former being a reboot to something really strong.
-Avengers makes far less without the solos cause the properties are unknown, justice league is a whole other kind of pop culture entity thus you have different options.
-Get the ball rolling before this moment of big cbm events passes as all things do(don't need 5 avengers movies over 10 years and the GA to tire before dc does their one)
-and the list goes on.

antman got a sequel(announced) whilst making far less than mos and def less than a billion.
Then again, how many avengers movies in the interim?

 

[Bruce Malone]

I think the plan had MoS met or exceeded Box Office expectations was to go ahead with a MoS 2 that would lead to a JL movie. Something like we saw Iron Man 2 used as.

Instead it probably went like WB thinking how could they make MoS 2 more profitable? and then the idea of having Batman appear, then them just saying screw it and have Batman be the co-lead and go for the billion.

 

[Superchan]

Jeff Robinov said that MOS was "going to be WB's biggest film" and that started the whole "MOS to make a billion" talk! However expecting any reboot to make a billion is laughable. NO boxoffice site or analyst expected MOS to touch the billion, infact most expected the film to make in the 600-700 range and the film did, naturally that was all before MOS opened huge and broke the june record domestically while internationally it opened slightly higher than amazing spiderman, which in turn made almost 500 million internationally. Hence judging by the film's opening it was expected that it could realistically make in the 800 million range and the film fell well short of that both domestically and internationally. Some of that can be attributed to it's less than stellar release date and heavy second weekend competition but I personally believe it was the film's divisive/less than stellar nature that really damaged it's performance.

It really saddens me to see a global icon like superman continues to under-perform in the box office but I do understand it because the character's iconography would get you a 125 million dollar opening (HUGE for a reboot) but how the film performs in the long run will have nothing to do with recognition and everything to do with quality and superman is yet to get a universally praised movie and in fact that last time he did was in 1981!!

If you look at all 6 superman films you'll realize that their boxoffice is directly proportional to their reception with the best of the series (superman the movie) making the most while the worst (superman IV) making the least so I am certain that if and when a good superman is made it will perform up to the character's iconic standards.

 

[Bruce Malone]

The film was divisive no doubt and that affected the Box Office. It wasn't just the competition because if it was just that you'd have a lot less people who look down on the film still today.

I'm speaking as someone who did like the film but it truly was a split reaction.

I was hoping for a traditional sequel for MoS to sort of redeem things for Cavil as least, and it is somewhat of shame we're going to still have to wait several years off for a truly great Superman film again.

 

[spiderman2]

So hear are my predictions for this movie.

OW 200m
USA 600m
Internationally 1 billion
WW 1.6 billion.

 

[metaphysician]

I think people were more disappointed with the movie critically than box office numbers go. 670M was a solid start to the DCEU. It did it's job by kickstarting all these other movies we're all blessed to have. I didn't enjoy the movie, but it's by no means a box office failure.

Pretty much. If MoS had done the same box office numbers, but was 85+ on RT and broadly judged a really strong movie? Even the WB execs would have largely been happy.

Really, the worrisome thing, from their perspective, wasn't the WW gross. It was the legs, or lack thereof. A sharp drop off from a strong opening weekend can mean various things, but one of them is "world of mouth cut you off at the knee". Combine that with the bad reviews, and they have to seriously consider that the movie only made as much as it did on strong marketing getting people there on opening night.

 

[metaphysician]

So hear are my predictions for this movie.

OW 200m
USA 600m
Internationally 1 billion
WW 1.6 billion.

Not going to happen. No prior DC movie of any kind has even come close to a billion international. A 50% increase over the highest international gross on a DC movie ever wouldn't even do it.

 

[jokesonm3]

Not going to happen. No prior DC movie of any kind has even come close to a billion international. A 50% increase over the highest international gross on a DC movie ever wouldn't even do it.

And no one here expected Furious 7 to gross $1.1 billion internationally, yet here we are.

Times change, Markets grow.

 

[False Prophet]

nvm. I misread.

 

[Val_Zod]

Not going to happen. No prior DC movie of any kind has even come close to a billion international. A 50% increase over the highest international gross on a DC movie ever wouldn't even do it.

It can very well happen. The last Batman film had done over 600m internationally, without 3d, and lower ticket prices. If BvS proves a crowd pleaser, it can definitely reach 1billion internationally. The field is very different from before.

 

[jokesonm3]

There is literally nothing right now that can stop BvS from crossing a billion internationally.

 

[spiderman2]

And no one here expected Furious 7 to gross $1.1 billion internationally, yet here we are.

Times change, Markets grow.

Yeah and who thought JW was going to make has much money has it did last year to. Also this is batman and superman 2 of the most popular superhero's together for the first time. So I think even if the movie sucks people are going to go see it. I expect around avenger numbers. I think worst it make 1.2 billion at best 2 billion WW.

 

[DarthAlani]

BvS is going to to do 1.2 billion on the low end I would say.

 

[spiderman2]

It can very well happen. The last Batman film had done over 600m internationally, without 3d, and lower ticket prices. If BvS proves a crowd pleaser, it can definitely reach 1billion internationally. The field is very different from before.

Just checked and dark knight rises made about 636 million and like you said with out 3d. That was almost 4 years ago to so the international market has gotten even bigger sinces then and if you just put 3d in there that 636 most likely would have been more like mid 700's.

 

[rogbngp]

BvS is going to to do 1.2 billion on the low end I would say.

Yeah, I think so too, but I would add: for sales to be that robust it has to be really good.

 

[Val_Zod]

There is literally nothing right now that can stop BvS from crossing a billion internationally.

Unless its unwatchable.

 

[Urich Leeds]

There is literally nothing right now that can stop BvS from crossing a billion internationally.

Other than it being complete crap. But I just don't believe it will be. If it is, I'll submit and join the club that says Zack Snyder is just a horrible director. But I honestly believe we have a great film coming our way. And if we're being honest, all BvS has to do is be good to cross a billion.

If its great/as great as most DC fans are expecting, it'll breeze past that mark.

 

[jokesonm3]

Which is why i said 'right now', we don't know if its good or not.

But as of now there's nothing that can stop it from doing more than a billion internationally, especially if F7 can do it.

 

[TDKR1977]

I think a billion is pretty much there for the taking. So long as the movie isn't garbage.

 

[jokesonm3]

Yeah the film has to essentially be worse than Man of Steel not to make a billion which i doubt is gonna happen.

I trust Terrio over Goyer.