Box Office predictions thread-2007 Edition

[primemover]

Well, yes. Shrek 2 was ridiculously visable and I expect that to be the same for this one, as well.

However, the first half of his post was more valid.

While valid don't expect it to matter much, Shrek was able to withstand Harry Potter and The Day After Tomorrow and have the 3rd and 4th top weekends of all time, just expect Shrek 3's second weekend to be a record breaker, with POTC 3 on top but Shrek taking in a huge 2nd weekend

Also, Shrek 2 really started to kick in and take over other movie's grosses after the second week, it's a long haul movie, which tells us it will weather POTC and continue on to a huge gross.

 

[Hunter Rider]

I just hope Shrek 3 is a lot better than Shrek 2

 

[Erzengel]

Where have I said that kids are stupid and will swallow anything that they throw at them? Granted if the movie sucks it will lose it's following weeks business, but this can happen to Sm3 and POTC3, my point is you cannot rest your opinion on this due to a change in director and screenwriter because it just doesn't matter to the marketing to a movie like Shrek.

We don't know how any movie is going to do regardless but saying that a new director and writers will have zero effect on the movie as long as the same characters are in it? It could go either way. But movies that have changed direction like this in the past have usually not done as well.

Shrek 3 is entering unknown territory. There isn't any animated movie that I know of who has gone for a second sequel let alone a hat trick in the theaters, only on DVD.

 

[Carter]

Spidey 3 but I'm most looking forward to Oceans 13

 

[primemover]

We don't know how any movie is going to do regardless but saying that a new director and writers will have zero effect on the movie as long as the same characters are in it? It could go either way. But movies that have changed direction like this in the past have usually not done as well.

Shrek 3 is entering unknown territory. There isn't any animated movie that I know of who has gone for a second sequel let alone a hat trick in the theaters, only on DVD.

You are inventing ways for Shrek 3 to fail when logic tells you it won't.

If you can say that Shrek 3 is entering unknown territory being the first cg animated second sequel, and that spells its doom, you could say the same for Spidey 3 also. The only difference is with comic book movies there is a definate trend for second sequels to fail either box-office wise(Superman 3 or Blade Trinity), or be critical failures (X-3 or Batman Returns). Spidey also has the issue that it made less than it's first movie, whereas Shrek made a considerable bit more.

 

[Cinemaman]

^^^

I am amazed how long can you keep quoting everyone to prove that Shrek 3 will be #1.

But what if it doesn't make so much? What will you think?

 

[Hunter Rider]

You are inventing ways for Shrek 3 to fail when logic tells you it won't.

If you can say that Shrek 3 is entering unknown territory being the first cg animated second sequel, and that spells its doom, you could say the same for Spidey 3 also. The only difference is with comic book movies there is a definate trend for second sequels to fail either box-office wise(Superman 3 or Blade Trinity), or be critical failures (X-3 or Batman Returns). Spidey also has the issue that it made less than it's first movie, whereas Shrek made a considerable bit more.

On the last point-AOTC made less than TPM but then the third(ROTS) made more than the second,SM3 has a lot going for it IMO especially those 2 weeks at the beginning of May
With Shrek 3 it will be massive,maybe even number one,im just saying it isn't a cert
Are the same people writing it ?

 

[Cinemaman]

On the last point-AOTC made less than TPM but then the third(ROTS) made more than the second,SM3 has a lot going for it IMO especially those 2 weeks at the beginning of May
With Shrek 3 it will be massive,maybe even number one,im just saying it isn't a cert
Are the same people writing it ?

Damn, I forgot about this. Yeah, Spidey franchise can repeat box office numbers of SW Prequels.

 

[Erzengel]

I'm not saying Shrek 3 is going to fail. I'm saying it's entering unknown territory and it is. How many animated third movies have we seen that wasn't a straight to DVD? Exactly.

The point many people are saying is that Shrek 3 may not have as easy of a time as it's predecessor did.

If you want to rely on logic, how many 3rd movies have done better if not as well as it's predecessors whether gross wise or critically? It's somewhat of a short list. Hat tricks in general are tough to do that's why the list of usually agreeed on successful trilogies is a short one.

Bottom line, this is a thread to discuss what movies will do well and which won't. I think Shrek 3 would have to be a lil better than average to go toe to toe with Pirates and on the heals of Spiderman 3. Could I be wrong, yes. But if you want to rely on logic based on fact?

Shrek 3 is opening, two weeks after Spiderman 3 and one before Pirates.
Shrek 3 has a different director, and different screenplay writers.
Most 3rd movies dont' do as well as the sequels.
No Animated Movie has released 2nd sequel.
Shrek 2 had Harry Potter, Day After Tomorrow, Chronicles of Riddick, and DodgeBall within a month of it's release.
Shrek 3 has to deal with Spiderman 3, Pirates 3, and Ocean's 13 within a month of it's release.

I'd say next year will be a lil tougher for Shrek to make as much as it did last time.

 

[primemover]

I'm not saying Shrek 3 is going to fail. I'm saying it's entering unknown territory and it is. How many animated third movies have we seen that wasn't a straight to DVD? Exactly.

The point many people are saying is that Shrek 3 may not have as easy of a time as it's predecessor did.

And I am saying its predecessor didn't have an easy time, it had Harry Potter and Day After Tomorrow, which was the highest non-#1 opening weekend movie of all time, by a longshot, it was beat by Shrek 2.

Shrek 3 is opening, two weeks after Spiderman 3 and one before Pirates.
Shrek 3 has a different director, and different screenplay writers.
Most 3rd movies dont' do as well as the sequels.
No Animated Movie has released 2nd sequel.
Shrek 2 had Harry Potter, Day After Tomorrow, Chronicles of Riddick, and DodgeBall within a month of it's release.
Shrek 3 has to deal with Spiderman 3, Pirates 3, and Ocean's 13 within a month of it's release.

I'd say next year will be a lil tougher for Shrek to make as much as it did last time.

Next year will be tougher on all 3 movies, not just Shrek, remember that Spidey 3 will have their competition also, in the most important weeks on it's road to massive box office numbers. I have no doubt that Shrek 3 will not get to 441 million domestically again, but it should be able to break 400, while I see Spidey getting to 350 max.

 

[primemover]

On the last point-AOTC made less than TPM but then the third(ROTS) made more than the second,SM3 has a lot going for it IMO especially those 2 weeks at the beginning of May
With Shrek 3 it will be massive,maybe even number one,im just saying it isn't a cert
Are the same people writing it ?

Different people, but that won't matter for a movie like this, people don't care about who writes a movie like Shrek, all they know that it's Shrek. A bad movie of course can hurt later sales, but that can happen to Spidey 3 and POTC 3 so it's a moot point in this discussion.

 

[buddha182]

Different people, but that won't matter for a movie like this, people don't care about who writes a movie like Shrek, all they know that it's Shrek. A bad movie of course can hurt later sales, but that can happen to Spidey 3 and POTC 3 so it's a moot point in this discussion.

certainly true... especially since we don't even have a trailer for Shrek 3 yet so there's almost nothing to judge it on... whatever... let the bickering continue

 

[Hunter Rider]

Different people, but that won't matter for a movie like this, people don't care about who writes a movie like Shrek, all they know that it's Shrek. A bad movie of course can hurt later sales, but that can happen to Spidey 3 and POTC 3 so it's a moot point in this discussion.

I wouldn't say it was a moot point,SM3 and POTC3 have the same people behind them as the first 2 movies so whatever they did in parts 1 and 2 that the audience liked will stand a strong chance of being there again but surely with Shrek 3 massive opening aside it will have to deliver the same level of well written humour to have the longterm success of repeat viewings and since it's not the same people writing that delivered the goods the previous twice that could be a factor unless of course im wrong in my thinking that it was the quality of the wriitng that made Shrek 1 and 2 so popular

 

[primemover]

I wouldn't say it was a moot point,SM3 and POTC3 have the same people behind them as the first 2 movies so whatever they did in parts 1 and 2 that the audience liked will stand a strong chance of being there again but surely with Shrek 3 massive opening aside it will have to deliver the same level of well written humour to have the longterm success of repeat viewings and since it's not the same people writing that delivered the goods the previous twice that could be a factor unless of course im wrong in my thinking that it was the quality of the wriitng that made Shrek 1 and 2 so popular

You guys keep comparing Shrek with a normal movie, cg animated movies are not a single persons vision as much as regular movies, Pixar movies as well as movies like Shrek are much more a group effort with co-directors and several writers than other types of movies. What is happening with Shrek is those co-directors and co-writers are taking control of the helm, so expect the same quality. This happened at Pixar with Pete Doctor and Andrew Stanton taking over Monster's Inc. and Finding Nemo respectively, and they turned out terrific.

Also, worse written movie with worse reviews sure hasn't hurt POTC2.

 

[Hunter Rider]

You guys keep comparing Shrek with a normal movie, cg animated movies are not a single persons vision as much as regular movies, Pixar movies as well as movies like Shrek are much more a group effort with co-directors and several writers than other types of movies. What is happening with Shrek is those co-directors and co-writers are taking control of the helm, so expect the same quality. This happened at Pixar with Pete Doctor and Andrew Stanton taking over Monster's Inc. and Finding Nemo respectively, and they turned out terrific.

Also, worse written movie with worse reviews sure hasn't hurt POTC2.

One minute you say treat them like normal movies now dont ? Bah
The thing is im talking about writing the same set of beloved characters,wouldn't there be a chance that since it isn't the same guys wriitng them that the humour and personality might fall flat ?

As for POTC2 ,well worse reviewed certainly but the characters and style were the same,non of the humour had gone but god was it padded out storywise

BTW are you wanting Shrek 3 to make the most ? or just you believe it will ?

 

[Van Petrol]

I reckon its going to be very tight between POTC3, Shrek 3 and Spider-Man 3.....

But I'm going to go with Spider-Man 3 to oust the competition.

 

[Aiden]

If it has huge promotion, where is teaser-trailer?

...

The only reason that we have a Spider-man teaser now is because they've been shooting since November. The only reason people at Comic-Con saw some POTC3 stuff is because they've already shot a lot of it. I imagine Shrek 3 is still trying to be perfected

 

[Erzengel]

And I am saying its predecessor didn't have an easy time, it had Harry Potter and Day After Tomorrow, which was the highest non-#1 opening weekend movie of all time, by a longshot, it was beat by Shrek 2.



Next year will be tougher on all 3 movies, not just Shrek, remember that Spidey 3 will have their competition also, in the most important weeks on it's road to massive box office numbers. I have no doubt that Shrek 3 will not get to 441 million domestically again, but it should be able to break 400, while I see Spidey getting to 350 max.

But Harry Potter and Day After Tomororow were 200+ movies. Spidey and Pirates are 300+, a little big more advanced competition.

 

[Darth Elektra]

While valid don't expect it to matter much, Shrek was able to withstand Harry Potter and The Day After Tomorrow and have the 3rd and 4th top weekends of all time, just expect Shrek 3's second weekend to be a record breaker, with POTC 3 on top but Shrek taking in a huge 2nd weekend

NO way! Shrek will open BIG, but will drop so fast.

 

[Cmill216]

I just wrote a really great post, and my f***in' wireless router goes out on me, and I lose everything.

 

[Hunter Rider]

I just wrote a really great post, and my f***in' wireless router goes out on me, and I lose everything.

Now i'll never know

 

[The Apatow Crew]

now what are you guys aguring over.

 

[Cmill216]

Now i'll never know

Basically, I said that Shrek 3 is in a far different boat than Shrek 2 because of the fact that Shrek 3's Day After Tomorrow will be the sequel to this year's biggest film. And the fact that the summer momentum that Shrek essentially created by being the first big film of Summer 2004 won't be there because Spidey will have the Hollywood spotlight to begin the month of May. Then I said some s*** about how $400 million is a phenomenon and that Shrek won't net nearly that much again, mainly because of the fact that it's facing another "potential phenomenon".

 

[primemover]

NO way! Shrek will open BIG, but will drop so fast.

Riiiight, like the other two Shrek movies did . .

 

[primemover]

Basically, I said that Shrek 3 is in a far different boat than Shrek 2 because of the fact that Shrek 3's Day After Tomorrow will be the sequel to this year's biggest film. And the fact that the summer momentum that Shrek essentially created by being the first big film of Summer 2004 won't be there because Spidey will have the Hollywood spotlight to begin the month of May. Then I said some s*** about how $400 million is a phenomenon and that Shrek won't net nearly that much again, mainly because of the fact that it's facing another "potential phenomenon".

This is bogus, POTC 3 opened later in the summer and it's doing HUGE. Shrek beat 2004's other 'potential phenomenons', it should be able to in 2007.