Box Office predictions thread-2007 Edition

[The Apatow Crew]

Wow, thinking about it this year has flown by!

yeah it has. well i guess its going fast cause it knows 2006 is a crap year and 2007 will be much better.

 

[Fantastic-Boy]

It will be Spidey 3,but I (like a big fan) voted FF and SS!!!

 

[Excel]

I can't believe how fast this decade is coming to a close.

sems like just YESTERDAY my buddy was showing me his "predict the highest grossing film of 2004!" thread where he picked day after tomorrow as number 1.

its either shrek or spider; pirates has no shot. simply not as much demand and way too much competition.

 

[Darth Elektra]

its either shrek or spider; pirates has no shot. simply not as much demand and way too much competition.

No Demand? What Thats all Im hearing is people talking about whats going to happen in POTC3!

 

[DACrowe]

POTC3 no demand? Okay I think almost all people even those who liked it (myself included) can safely say POTC2 was a disappointment compared to the first movie, but that does not mean the third is not in high demand. It ended on a cliffhanger. Even if it was The Temple of Doom or Back to the Future Part II (let's all really hope not Matrix 2, with warning signs of what is to come) it is a well liked movie that has grossed ASTRONOMICAL AMOUNTS OF MONEY. It's left a major cliffhanger or two, or three, or four right before the credits rolled and the third comes out less than a year away (close to 11 months to be exact).

I'd say that POTC3 is in much higher demand than Shrek 3, as is SM3. Which is why I think both will make more than Shrek 3 which made the mistake of sandwiching itself. Sure SM3 will be in its third week and it will easily take the number 1 spot but then the following week POTC3 comes out with its target audience the same as Shrek 3, this is just bad business by Dreamworks if you ask me. They shoulda' gone for July 4th as the general buzz is that Transformers ig going to go bust (kinda' like how SR or Hulk did).

Also, this has been a bit of a bad year for films hasn't it? The spring offered nothing good in multiplexes other than V for Vendetta and only a few indies shined (The Matador, Thank YOu For Smoking, A Prarie HOme Companion, etc.) and the summer flicks have all either been slightly disappointing (POTC2, SR) or major pieces of crap (everything else). Hopefully '07 will do better in summer at least.

 

[The_Vision]

Spider-man 3
POTC3
Shrek 3
Harry Potter and the Orden of the Phoenix
Fantastic Four 2

 

[The Riddler]

ff2 is going to do meh at the box office next year.

transformers is likely going to bomb.

 

[The Apatow Crew]

ff2 is going to do meh at the box office next year.

transformers is likely going to bomb.

like i've said you don't rver know what a movies gonna do. there are no more sure gurantee movies anymore.

everyone thought SR was a gurantee super hit and it's limping its way along to 200 mill domestic and no one could have predicted POTC2 making as much as it has so far in its one month span.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Now That's What I Call Summer! Which '07 summer movie are you anticipating the most?


Spider-Man 3 42.9%
Pirates of the Caribbean 3 14.7%
Harry Potter and the Order of the Phoenix 13.8%
Transformers 8.3%
The Simpsons Movie 4.8%
The Bourne Ultimatum 4.8%
Live Free or Die Hard 3.1%
Fantastic Four and The Silver Surfer 2.4%
Rush Hour 3 2.2%
Shrek the Third 1.1%
Ocean's 13 1.0%
Ratatouille 0.4%
Evan Almighty 0.3%

 

[Darth Elektra]

ff2 is going to do meh at the box office next year.

transformers is likely going to bomb.

I agree about the sequel to FF but I dont think Transformers will bomb... atleast I hope not.

 

[Untilteld]

07 will own.

 

[The Riddler]

like i've said you don't rver know what a movies gonna do. there are no more sure gurantee movies anymore.

everyone thought SR was a gurantee super hit and it's limping its way along to 200 mill domestic and no one could have predicted POTC2 making as much as it has so far in its one month span.

i believe i quite predicited sr was not going to be a blockbuster.

 

[PowersOfMind]

like i've said you don't rver know what a movies gonna do. there are no more sure gurantee movies anymore.

everyone thought SR was a gurantee super hit and it's limping its way along to 200 mill domestic and no one could have predicted POTC2 making as much as it has so far in its one month span.

Very true. Before July 7th I would have said SM 3 was the sure-fire top BO grosser for 2007 but since POTC2 has done so well im not really sure now. Pirates is real big right now. I went to see it again on Sunday and the theater was still packed. I do think the copetiton in May 2007 is steep but I do think it all coming down to Spidey and Pirates.

SR was supposed to be a big movie this summer and well it isnt.

 

[Erzengel]

My whole thing is with the summer being so top heavy, will there be as much repeat business? That's why during the Summer, a movie can only last #1 2 weeks at the box office. Even S3 will only have a firm grip for 2 weeks, til Shrek 3 comes out. And Shrek 3 will barely have a week before Pirates.

 

[Cmill216]

My whole thing is with the summer being so top heavy, will there be as much repeat business? That's why during the Summer, a movie can only last #1 2 weeks at the box office. Even S3 will only have a firm grip for 2 weeks, til Shrek 3 comes out. And Shrek 3 will barely have a week before Pirates.

Shrek 3, IMO, will be hurt the most out of the big three because it's being sandwiched in by the others, and I just think when you combine the fact that the CG Golden Age is over and that Spidey 3 and POTC 3 are gonna have so much going for them, I think Shrek's gonna struggle by comparison.

 

[DACrowe]

^ Agreed. But Shrek 3 could be a wild card and gross more than either like in '04 but I doubt it. Don't rule it out though.

And I think there is such a thing a surefire hit, like a sequel to a popular big movie. I think Spider-Man 3 and POTC3 are surefire hits. SR I saw was going to underperform as did many because there was no anticipation for it, between a lackluster marketing campaign that didn't garnish any excitment and POTC2 coming out a week later (a sequel to a hugely popular movie) POTC2 stood the chance to break records (though I was thinking if it beat SM1 it'd stil lbe under $120 million, $135 million is extraordinary). SR was going to underperform.

Now I can safely say that limping to $200 million is rather poor and surprisingly disappointing though.

 

[Cinemaman]

Shrek 3, IMO, will be hurt the most out of the big three because it's being sandwiched in by the others, and I just think when you combine the fact that the CG Golden Age is over and that Spidey 3 and POTC 3 are gonna have so much going for them, I think Shrek's gonna struggle by comparison.

Agreed.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Shrek should move positions, and leave May to the big boys to fight it out.

 

[primemover]

i believe i quite predicited sr was not going to be a blockbuster.

And you'd be wrong, a movie making 200 million is a blockbuster, no matter what the predictions or budget were.

 

[primemover]

Shrek should move positions, and leave May to the big boys to fight it out.

Or SM3 and POTC3 should move positions so THE big boy can fight it out.

The underestimation continues, it's baffling.

 

[Erzengel]

I honestly think Shrek and Pirates will both not make as much as they could if they were separated. I think them being so close to each other will cost them a bit.

 

[primemover]

Shrek 3, IMO, will be hurt the most out of the big three because it's being sandwiched in by the others, and I just think when you combine the fact that the CG Golden Age is over and that Spidey 3 and POTC 3 are gonna have so much going for them, I think Shrek's gonna struggle by comparison.

CG Golden Age is over? That is just silly, CG films are performing just as well today as they were in their supposed 'Golden Age', so stop making up excuses for why Shrek will fail and your favorite films will beat it.

You cannot compare box-office numbers from movies Monster House or The Ant Bully to that of Shrek, Shrek is on a completely different level. That is like comparing Daredevil to Spider-Man box-office. A better comparison is to look at a Pixar movie and then compare, and even if you do that, Shrek 2 beat The Incredibles by 180 million dollars, add that to Cars numbers and you have a gross of over 400 million for Shrek. It's just on a different level from it's genre.

Shrek will not be hindered by being sandwiched by two big movies, it had major competition in 2004 and still steamrolled it's way to 440 million. Shrek 3's 2nd and 3rd weekend are the 3rd and 4th all time box office weekends, so it had major compeition then.

 

[primemover]

I honestly think Shrek and Pirates will both not make as much as they could if they were separated. I think them being so close to each other will cost them a bit.

And how much is that? Give a percentage.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Shrek 3 in no way will fail... It will be HUGE on opening weekend... and thorugh the week. But then Jack and his crew comes sailing into theaters.

Mark my words:

POTC3 will beat Shrek 3.

 

[Erzengel]

If I had to guess? Maybe up to $50 million?

I've said this before. Shrek 2 had Harry Potter and Day After Tomorrow. Movies within 3 weeks of it's release that made 200+ . Shrek 3 has Spiderman and Pirates who's sequels made $350+ within a 2 weeks of it's release.

Yeah Shrek 3 will probably do well but it has stronger competition this time.