Box Office predictions thread-2007 Edition

[Iceman]

^ Agreed. But Shrek 3 could be a wild card and gross more than either like in '04 but I doubt it. Don't rule it out though.

And I think there is such a thing a surefire hit, like a sequel to a popular big movie. I think Spider-Man 3 and POTC3 are surefire hits. SR I saw was going to underperform as did many because there was no anticipation for it, between a lackluster marketing campaign that didn't garnish any excitment and POTC2 coming out a week later (a sequel to a hugely popular movie) POTC2 stood the chance to break records (though I was thinking if it beat SM1 it'd stil lbe under $120 million, $135 million is extraordinary). SR was going to underperform.

Now I can safely say that limping to $200 million is rather poor and surprisingly disappointing though.

I wouldn't consider Shrek 3 to be a wild card pick given the stunning numbers for Shrek 2. Having said that I don't know yet whether 3 will be able to offer anything new to the franchise and I'm guessing it would do well to get anywhere near it's predecessor's box office. Although chasing a lower total, I think Spidey 3 has a better chance of matching the domestic B.O. of its previous film.

 

[Cmill216]

it had major competition in 2004 and still steamrolled it's way to 440 million.

The Day After Tomorrow and Potter 3 topped out at $186 million and $249 million, respectively. Spidey 3 and Pirates 3 are all but locks for $300 million. I see a difference in this "competition".

 

[Erzengel]

If I had to guess? Maybe up to $50 million?

I've said this before. Shrek 2 had Harry Potter and Day After Tomorrow. Movies within 3 weeks of it's release that made 200+ . Shrek 3 has Spiderman and Pirates who's sequels made $350+ within a 2 weeks of it's release.

Yeah Shrek 3 will probably do well but it has stronger competition this time.

The Day After Tomorrow and Potter 3 topped out at $186 million and $249 million, respectively. Spidey 3 and Pirates 3 are all but locks for $300 million. I see a difference in this "competition".

Beat ya.

 

[Cmill216]

Beat ya.

OW3NEDZ.

 

[primemover]

Still shows that Shrek can handle a high level of competition, and carry it's weekends following it's opening to to the 3rd and 4th spot on the all-time list.

All I can see is POTC3's opening weekend will be the #1 weekend of all time when it's all said and done, with Shrek 3 getting it's needed 60 million for a strong 2nd weekend then demonstrate it's staying power that Shrek2 proved the franchise has.

SM3 will not be much of an impedance to Shrek3's box office, by it's third week it will only be pulling 30 million or so and does anybody believe that is a threat to it?

 

[Erzengel]

Okay Harry Potter I will give you as "high level" of competition but no way was Day After Tomorrow competition aside from Shrek 2 out for like a month.

 

[Hunter Rider]

I wonder what will be the surprise hit of the summer(if there is one),not being number 1 but doing bigger numbers than most though

I really hope Live free or Die Hard does well

 

[Cinemaman]

I will be very sureprised, if TF makes more than $200m, what is very unlikely.

 

[Cmill216]

I wonder what will be the surprise hit of the summer(if there is one),not being number 1 but doing bigger numbers than most though

I really hope Live free or Die Hard does well

I'd say it's a toss up between Rat and TF.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Still shows that Shrek can handle a high level of competition, and carry it's weekends following it's opening to to the 3rd and 4th spot on the all-time list.

All I can see is POTC3's opening weekend will be the #1 weekend of all time when it's all said and done, with Shrek 3 getting it's needed 60 million for a strong 2nd weekend then demonstrate it's staying power that Shrek2 proved the franchise has.

SM3 will not be much of an impedance to Shrek3's box office, by it's third week it will only be pulling 30 million or so and does anybody believe that is a threat to it?

I agree with you there, Spidy 3 wont hurt Shrek 3 much.

 

[Darth Elektra]

I wonder what will be the surprise hit of the summer(if there is one),not being number 1 but doing bigger numbers than most though

I really hope Live free or Die Hard does well

Thats a good question and which film/s will bomb?

A little to early to tell either of these questions.

 

[Erzengel]

I don't know Transformers consistantly seems to be releasing spoilers meant to piss me off.

 

[primemover]

The biggest surprise will probably come from Evan Almighty, the first film did huge box-office and even though many of you look at this movie as a turd, with Steve Carrell at the helm with his growing stardom, might take a nice sized chunk out of the box-office

 

[primemover]

Okay Harry Potter I will give you as "high level" of competition but no way was Day After Tomorrow competition aside from Shrek 2 out for like a month.

The Day After Tomorrow came out a week after Shrek 2.

 

[Cinemaman]

I think TF, FF2 (maybe) and Ocean's 13 will all bomb.

 

[Erzengel]

My mistake. So Shrek 2 is #1 for 2 weeks with only the Day After Tomorrow which makes $189 to challenge it. Then Harry Potter is released and makes $249 million.

So that equates to the same as next year? Against 2 additional sequels whose previous movies have made $350+?

Again, I'm not saying Shrek 3 won't make money. I'm just saying it has a tougher time next year.

Edit: And 3 movies opening before Shrek 2 were Mean Girls, Van Helsing and Troy. Again not much competition.

 

[The Riddler]

And you'd be wrong, a movie making 200 million is a blockbuster, no matter what the predictions or budget were.

last i checked it didn't make $200 million, and isn't going to.

 

[Cinemaman]

Well, if Spidey 2 was released in May, it would make much more than $373m.

Shrek 2 just didn't have any serious competitor, except HP-3, which wasn't good movie for month like May.

But 2007 has another situation. There is Spidey 3, which can get Spidey 1 numbers with 2 weeks. I remember the same situation with Spidey 1 and SW-II.

Spidey 1 again had 2 weeks and won this competition.

Besides, POTC3 has POTC2 to follow. So that is why I think Shrek 3 can not be so big shark.

This movie will be between 2 great fires.

But POTC2 also is making so much money, only because of it being the only blockbuster in july, which has very huge popularity.

So that is why i think Spidey 3 has much more chances to be #1 domesticly.

 

[primemover]

My mistake. So Shrek 2 is #1 for 2 weeks with only the Day After Tomorrow which makes $189 to challenge it. Then Harry Potter is released and makes $249 million.

So that equates to the same as next year? Against 2 additional sequels whose previous movies have made $350+?

Again, I'm not saying Shrek 3 won't make money. I'm just saying it has a tougher time next year.

Edit: And 3 movies opening before Shrek 2 were Mean Girls, Van Helsing and Troy. Again not much competition.

Shrek 2 had good competition, from multiple movies, whereas it mainly has POTC3 to contend within '07, and I see those two movies dominating the box-office for the weeks after that too.

My point is Shrek 2 contended with high level competition, while not as high as POTC could be, still high level, carrying those weekends to be in the top 5 all time weekends.

Shrek 3 has at least 400 million in it even with these conditions.

 

[Erzengel]

Seriously aside from Harry Potter and to a very lesser degree Day After Tomorrow what was Shrek 2's competition again? Name the movies?

 

[Cinemaman]

But Spidey 3 vs. Shrek 3 can turn into next Spidey 1 vs. SW-II.

SW-II was released 2 weeks later than Spidey 1, the same what will happen with Spidey 3 and Shrek 3.

If SPidey 2 was released in May, Shrek 3 wouldn't make so much money.

Besides, HR-3 was very dark movie for May, so that is why it didn't make enough money.

 

[primemover]

last i checked it didn't make $200 million, and isn't going to.

Stop splitting hairs, it will probably cap out at a bit over 195 million dollars, still a blockbuster.

 

[Darth Elektra]

Shrek 3 has at least 400 million in it even with these conditions.

Domestic or WorldWide?

 

[Cmill216]

Shrek 3 has at least 400 million in it even with these conditions.

*Wow.*

Okay. We'll have to wait and see.

 

[primemover]

Seriously aside from Harry Potter and to a very lesser degree Day After Tomorrow what was Shrek 2's competition again? Name the movies?

Competition enough to drive Shrek 2's 2nd and 3rd weekends to the all-time list, that is really all you need to know.