Superman Returns Box Office Preview

[Hunter Rider]

its far more crazy to say supermans ww gross will be 400 million then it is to say it will be 600.

and hunter, what is gods among men?

that's why i say 450-500

God Amongst Men is just a fun group for SR posters to unify and keep the boards civil,you can be in just put it in your SIG ,i think Pickle is gonna be in

 

[Excel]

ooo, thats just something i read about pirates 2s ending.

 

[Excel]

im looking at the schedule n ww will be tough to call for a while.

for example, japan is its biggest over seas market. episode 3 made 100 million there, and mopst cgi fest are huge in japan.

superman opens in japan august 19th. so we wont know superman ww total until october.unlike batman wherewe knew it in august.

 

[explode7]

It should've have a WW release date. DAMN WB!

 

[Showtime]

Glad you have you aboard Excel. Pickle was invited about a week ago, never put it in his sig.

 

[AgentPat]

If SR performs like S:TM did (the film it most resembles according to everyone) Then you could very well see something along the lines of:

335 Domestic and about 400 internationally. (Which is very close to S:TM numbers when you 'inflate'. It's actually more, but I don't see this kind of performance to be impossible)

The most recent inflation adjusted list I've seen puts S:TM at $367,092,000, which is based on an average ticket price of $6.40 for 2006. But S:TM unspooled in 1978. Those were the days of platform releases, where a film would take upwards of a year to make its way around the country. At its widest release, S:TM was only in 817 theaters nationwide, and had a limited opening for a then remarkable 508 theaters. Today's blockbuster films get saturation releases and are expected to meet or exceed their production budgets in the first two weeks of release, if not sooner LOL.

It's hard to make comparisons with older films, particularly ones as old as S:TM. Most people had no idea what a video cassette recorder was in 1978, much less own one (Sony's Betamax hit the streets in 1976 followed shortly by RCA's VHS in 1977.) The big three broadcast networks had a 91% share of prime time audiences during the 1978/9 season, and "cable" was something you used when the antenna on the roof didn't work. Computers and the Internet were not in the common lexicon outside of science fiction stories, and "Space Invaders" was the latest popular video game at the time. People were still playing "Pong" in 1978. LOL

So what did people do for entertainment back then? Well a LOT of folks went to the movies. It's different now. Very, very different.

 

[Showtime]

Very well thought out post. Entertaining and stacked with information. Do you write for the planet?

 

[AgentPat]

Very well thought out post. Entertaining and stacked with information. Do you write for the planet?

Who me? Hee!

The closest I've come to anything "official" at the Planet was my offer to write technical (production related) reviews on SV episodes for The Kingdom section. But they're undergoing a few changes and upgrades right now, so if it ever happens, it probably won't be till next season (September). Thanks for the compliment though.


BTW, Showtime029... I'm in Woburn. Nice to meet a fellow BeanTowner.

 

[Excel]

The most recent inflation adjusted list I've seen puts S:TM at $367,092,000, which is based on an average ticket price of $6.40 for 2006. But S:TM unspooled in 1978. Those were the days of platform releases, where a film would take upwards of a year to make its way around the country. At its widest release, S:TM was only in 817 theaters nationwide, and had a limited opening for a then remarkable 508 theaters. Today's blockbuster films get saturation releases and are expected to meet or exceed their production budgets in the first two weeks of release, if not sooner LOL.

It's hard to make comparisons with older films, particularly ones as old as S:TM. Most people had no idea what a video cassette recorder was in 1978, much less own one (Sony's Betamax hit the streets in 1976 followed shortly by RCA's VHS in 1977.) The big three broadcast networks had a 91% share of prime time audiences during the 1978/9 season, and "cable" was something you used when the antenna on the roof didn't work. Computers and the Internet were not in the common lexicon outside of science fiction stories, and "Space Invaders" was the latest popular video game at the time. People were still playing "Pong" in 1978. LOL

So what did people do for entertainment back then? Well a LOT of folks went to the movies. It's different now. Very, very different.

yeah...stm opened to 7 million and finished 130 million in the us n 300 million ww, good for 5th biggest of all time back then.

for example if stm opened today i doubt itd cross 250 million, itd be too boring. but the sequel-suprman 2-would though.

but yeah anything pre 1989 is hard to compare to todays box office state.

 

[Cinemaman]

These boards are hardly the epicenter of good BO predicitng as last years BB threads showed

I have had SR at number 2 on every review ive done for BO in 2006,you just want to brand me a "hater" becuase i won't say it will make $300M

But how can it be number 2 without $290-300m?

I think Cars will make $277m, X3 will make $207m and Da Vinci Code will get $233m.

So as I understood, Cars can beat SR.

It would not be good for Superman.

 

[Cinemaman]

The movie will soar in the first 5 days to over 125 million.. will it have staying power.. well that maybe different.

I hope you are right, it will be.

And is SR makes in first 5 days about $125m, it will make about $83m in first weekend.

 

[ROBOCOP CPU001]

^^

I hope so to.. its a reachable target.

 

[Cinemaman]

Well no not really, Being a big movie fan..most will see both..as both has sparked interest.. both can be watched by a younger audiance..which Batman Begins lost alot of revenue to.Being at the top doesn't mean a thing..have you seen some of the crap that goes to the top spot?

Hmm...

I think POTC2 will make more than SR, because it has kids and their parents.

But SR also has an advantages, because big numbers of teenagers, maybe kids and fans will go to see it.

 

[ROBOCOP CPU001]

Hmm...

I think POTC2 will make more than SR, because it has kids and their parents.

But SR also has an advantages, because big numbers of teenagers, maybe kids and fans will go to see it.

no way dude...

look at the amount of toys being released..certainly not for teenagers..the target audiance WB will want are parents and kids.

but all ages really.

 

[Cinemaman]

To clarify I said 185 to 210 domestically and I predict about 185 foreign for a total WW of 370 - 395. It will do slightly better than BB WW I think.

BB did 205 domestically and 167 or so foreign for a total of around 372 million.

You are right that if it just does 210 domestically there would be a sequel.

A BB sequel has been green lighted but you have to figure BB cost just 150 million to make so it turned a nice profit. Not great like Spiderman of course.

Look man, most important part is that SR must make moe than $250m, not more than BB.

 

[Hunter Rider]

But how can it be number 2 without $290-300m?

I think Cars will make $277m, X3 will make $207m and Da Vinci Code will get $233m.

So as I understood, Cars can beat SR.

It would not be good for Superman.

I'd forgotten about Cars,maybe it will be number 3 then or Cars won't make as much as you predicted

 

[Cinemaman]

the dif. is batman had fordseeable problems nobody saw and some that we couldnt see.

1.nobody thought it marketing in june would be that bad. w.b. went with a long, 10 month marketing push that had more stuff for batman in december-march then in may-june when it counted. if supermans is that bad it wont get more then 250 million.
-superman wont have this, as w.b.s opted for the one huge 2 month push. may-june will be full of superman unlike it was for batman.

2. batman had a huge effect with batmab & robin. it was still fresh in peoples minds and kept em away.
-superman hasnt had a film in 20 years.

3. batman begins didnt appeal to kids.
-superman does.

4. supermans drama was a (too most) uninteresting, unappealing story of a man trying to conquer inner demons. men got bored in the first hour, and women werent interested to begin with.
-supermans drama is a love story. this will BRING IN women and its immense budget promises huge action thatll bring in men. so esstentially, supermans a "date"movie while batman certainly wasnt.

5. release date-batman opened after surprise smash mr. and mrs. smith which appealed to all of batmans core demographics. plus it opened oin the dead middle of june where everybody was tired after seeing mays big guns.
-supermans ther first big film of next summer once kids get off and opens on the best release date of the year, july 4th holiday, and is the first big film in over a month, which gives it an audience and marketing advantage.

AGREED. I HATE when people says it will make BB numbers!

 

[Cinemaman]

I'd forgotten about Cars,maybe it will be number 3 then or Cars won't make as much as you predicted

If Incredibles made more than $260m, I am sure Cars will make more than $270m.

 

[Cinemaman]

no way dude...

look at the amount of toys being released..certainly not for teenagers..the target audiance WB will want are parents and kids.

but all ages really.

I think teenagers will have bigger interest in SR than kids.

Kids love pirates.

But if SR have PG raiting, it will make more than $250m 99%.

 

[ROBOCOP CPU001]

I think teenagers will have bigger interest in SR than kids.

Kids love pirates.

But if SR have PG raiting, it will make more than $250m 99%.

I can't say i agree... I bet most male childern put a towl around there neck at some point and pretend to be the man of steel..

 

[Cinemaman]

that's why i say 450-500

God Amongst Men is just a fun group for SR posters to unify and keep the boards civil,you can be in just put it in your SIG ,i think Pickle is gonna be in

And you think that it will be realistic for Superman?

LOL.

Superman has another epic side.

It will make $680-710m.

 

[Hunter Rider]

If Incredibles made more than $260m, I am sure Cars will make more than $270m.

There's no logic to that statement,Incredibles was cool and funny and had superheroes in it,talking Cars may not have the same appeal

 

[green]

There's no logic to that statement,Incredibles was cool and funny and had superheroes in it,talking Cars may not have the same appeal

Not to mention the overload of cg animated films we have been getting.

 

[Hunter Rider]

And you think that it will be realistic for Superman?

LOL.

Superman has another epic side.

It will make $680-710m.

No it won't,your just living in this fanboy world where everyone loves superman and it is gonna make this enormous BO cos you want it to,you ignore all the factors and just plow on

 

[Hunter Rider]

Not to mention the overload of cg animated films we have been getting.

Yep they are not the rare gems they once were