Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Thread Manager]

This is a continuation thread, the old thread is [split]487909[/split]

 

[JOE]

With the recent news of the Civil War storyline and Iron-Man joining the party, Captain America 3 is sure to have one heck of a Box Office run.

Will it surpass GOTG and reclaim the MCU's bronze Box Office medal? Or will it give IM2 a run for it's money with RDJ in the mix and go for silver? It may be a long shot, but there's always people out there thinking the next MCU movie will dethrone the might Avengers themselves. Eager to see what you guys all think, with RDJ and Civil War in play nothing is off the table with this movie! Vote now!

*NOTE*: Predictions are for Worldwide numbers. Post your DOM and OS predictions as well!

 

[third3ye]

I just wasn't sure about that statement because an estimate, by definition, isn't supposed to be exactly right. If it were, it'd just be called 'the answer'

 

[smsvmos]

I can't believe they have this movie bootlegged already. This is the problem when they don't do a world wide release.

 

[WilliamK99]

I can't believe they have this movie bootlegged already. This is the problem when they don't do a world wide release.

Disney must have run out of money paying off the critics to pay off the bootleggers too...

 

[Tilapia]

I just put my future mortgage down payment on Disney shares... they are reporting Q1 the week after Civil War opening weekend. I need this to be an all timer... no ifs ands or buts.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I can't believe they have this movie bootlegged already. This is the problem when they don't do a world wide release.

It's the same with any big movie though and pretty much every MCU film to date. The people that are willing to watch a garbage cam version of any film are either folks who are so die-hard they have to see it immediately and will then see it 2 or 3 times when it hits her domestically on OW or they are cheapskates who were never going to watch it in the theater anyway.

Rare is the person who rounds up the family after dinner to fire up their epic home movie setup to throw on a bootleg cam movie for everyone to enjoy haha.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It's the same with any big movie though and pretty much every MCU film to date. The people that are willing to watch a garbage cam version of any film are either folks who are so die-hard they have to see it immediately and will then see it 2 or 3 times when it hits her domestically on OW or they are cheapskates who were never going to watch it in the theater anyway.

Rare is the person who rounds up the family after dinner to fire up their epic home movie setup to throw on a bootleg cam movie for everyone to enjoy haha.

The people who love going to the movies to watch superheroes, jedis, and other nerd stuff are enough to fuel an endless supply of this stuff.

That's all that matters when it comes to this entertainment.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

I'm loving that the predictions keep going up but for some reason I'm still on the fence about this opening to 200+ OW. I think the 2015 box office scarred me. How unpredictable things like JW big opening that no one saw coming to FF7 grossing 1b overseas. I know the fight took place last year when AOU opened but....idk. And this year already with Deadpool outgrossing BvS....strange things happen. I would love to be wrong though.

 

[Tilapia]

It's going to be a 200 million dollar OW barring some crazy circumstance like a terrorist attack or natural disaster... okay, maybe 195, but I'm not going to pull teeth. I think it is reasonable to expect a 3.0 multiplier for a film that is scoring above 90%. 600 million, roughly, is a safe estimate. 650 would be pushing it, being that it's a summer release. Probably won't have monster legs. But I'm leaning toward 625 minimum.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

It's going to be a 200 million dollar OW barring some crazy circumstance like a terrorist attack or natural disaster... okay, maybe 195, but I'm not going to pull teeth. I think it is reasonable to expect a 3.0 multiplier for a film that is scoring above 90%. 600 million, roughly, is a safe estimate. 650 would be pushing it, being that it's a summer release. Probably won't have monster legs. But I'm leaning toward 625 minimum.

$625M domestically is fine with me.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I think the floor is 500 m DOM, 900 m OS, and 1.4 billion WW.

But my guess is that it will beat Avengers (1.5 billion WW) thanks to great word of mouth.

 

[Spiderdevil]

I can't believe they have this movie bootlegged already. This is the problem when they don't do a world wide release.

Really? Interesting...

 

[Gerontophobe]

I just put my future mortgage down payment on Disney shares... they are reporting Q1 the week after Civil War opening weekend. I need this to be an all timer... no ifs ands or buts.

Not to question the logic of your investment strategy but a lot of the expectations for CW to perform well are already built into the price. Also, Disney has a $170B market cap; films are a relatively small slice of the pie when compared to their media networks and parks division (especially one movie).

Still, Disney is really just killing it this year and Universal's move to add DreamWorks is in someways a response to Disney buying everything (Pixar, Marvel, LucasFilm).

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I don't understand Universal buying Dreamworks for almost 4 billion.

It's no where as valuable as Star Wars, Marvel or Pixar.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

I don't understand Universal buying Dreamworks for almost 4 billion.

It's no where as valuable as Star Wars, Marvel or Pixar.

Basically because Comcast has more money than it knows what to do with. See: http://deadline.com/2016/04/comcast...-deal-analysis-jeffrey-katzenberg-1201745932/

 

[Gerontophobe]

I don't understand Universal buying Dreamworks for almost 4 billion.

It's no where as valuable as Star Wars, Marvel or Pixar.

Also remember that their IPs are valuable to Comcast for reasons beyond just their movies, most notably theme parks. DW has several big animated franchises (Shrek, Madagascar, Kung Fu Panda, HTTYD) and studios love proven commodities.

I agree the purchase price was a little crazy (especially considering the company was valued at a little over half of that just a few weeks ago) but as has been pointed out to Comcast the difference between $3B and $4B isn't huge.

 

[Raiden]

Also remember that their IPs are valuable to Comcast for reasons beyond just their movies, most notably theme parks. DW has several big animated franchises (Shrek, Madagascar, Kung Fu Panda, HTTYD) and studios love proven commodities.

I agree the purchase price was a little crazy (especially considering the company was valued at a little over half of that just a few weeks ago) but as has been pointed out to Comcast the difference between $3B and $4B isn't huge.

They also have the Despictable Me and the Minions franchise, which made millions for Universal. However, I do find many of the Dreamworks animation to be underwhelming, such as Shrek (yes, I know it made a lot of money but by the 4th film it was terrible) and Madagascar. Unlike Pixar and the recent Disney Animation, I don't find Dreamworks movies to be rewatchable and they get progressively worse and not holding up well later on.

 

[Tilapia]

Not to question the logic of your investment strategy but a lot of the expectations for CW to perform well are already built into the price. Also, Disney has a $170B market cap; films are a relatively small slice of the pie when compared to their media networks and parks division (especially one movie).

Still, Disney is really just killing it this year and Universal's move to add DreamWorks is in someways a response to Disney buying everything (Pixar, Marvel, LucasFilm).

Very true, I'm banking on merchandising sales and NBA playoffs being big this year. But I'm gonna be short selling the stock after this quarter. I'll be shocked if it misses expectations. The shares should go up a few more bucks. I saw Amazon and Facebook flying after Apple crashed and I had sold all my tech shares. Talk about wanting to shoot myself.

I think Universal is best positioned to take on Disney than anybody else, but the studios are poised for another merger to take on Disney.

 

[Iceman]

Not to question the logic of your investment strategy but a lot of the expectations for CW to perform well are already built into the price. Also, Disney has a $170B market cap; films are a relatively small slice of the pie when compared to their media networks and parks division (especially one movie).

Still, Disney is really just killing it this year and Universal's move to add DreamWorks is in someways a response to Disney buying everything (Pixar, Marvel, LucasFilm).

DreamWorks is easily the worst deal out of that haul. Disney unlocked a treasure trove!

 

[JOE]

This movie is going to be the 25th movie to join the Box Office Billion Dollar club. Kinda cool.

From ComingSoon:

Marvel’s Captain America: Civil War opened yesterday in an additional eight international markets to take the total number opened to date to 38 territories. Captain America: Civil War continues to place at #1 in all markets while still tracking on par with Avengers: Age of Ultron in the same suite of markets. “Age of Ultron” stands as the highest-ever grossing superhero movie internationally with $946 million. The Captain America: Civil War international box office has reached $84 million in just three days.

Here are the international highlights:
Korea $12.6M
Mexico $7.3M
UK $7.0M
Brazil $5.4M
France $5.2M
Australia $4.5M
Philippines $3.8M
Taiwan $3.8M
Germany $3.7M
Hong Kong $3.2M
Japan $2.8M
Thailand $2.7M
Malaysia $2.2M
Other markets $19.8M
Total $84.0M

Read more at http://www.comingsoon.net/movies/ne...x-office-up-to-84-million#XfTdy8sM9HMLcshD.99

 

[RLAAMJR.]

This movie is going to be the 25th movie to join the Box Office Billion Dollar club. Kinda cool.

From ComingSoon:

When it said Korea, it is only referring to South Korea right?

 

[Tilapia]

When it said Korea, it is only referring to South Korea right?

Kim Jong-Un really going to be showing a film called Captain America in his entertainment district?

 

[spiderman2]

This movie is going to be the 25th movie to join the Box Office Billion Dollar club. Kinda cool.

From ComingSoon:

If the movie is on the same pace in like ever place OS as AOU then I think this movie is going to reach a billion OS because it should have better legs then AOU considering that it is getting better reception then AOU did.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

This movie is going to be the 25th movie to join the Box Office Billion Dollar club. Kinda cool.

From ComingSoon:

It's very likely it will make the top 10 WW.

and it has a chance at making the top 5.

Unless it has weak legs and disappoints in the USA which I seriously doubt.