Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[kedrell]

Just read that it doubled IM3's opening in Japan. IM3 went on to make $25m in Japan. Could a $50m finish there be in store for CW? Spider-man is the main thing that will ensure that, if it indeed happens. Japan loves Spidey beyond any other western superhero.

 

[TalismanRing]

Just read that it doubled IM3's opening in Japan. IM3 went on to make $25m in Japan. Could a $50m finish there be in store for CW? Spider-man is the main thing that will ensure that, if it indeed happens. Japan loves Spidey beyond any other western superhero.

Different opening days, it was the start of a holiday for CW. This is Golden Week though so I expect it will do very well over the next 8 or so days after that with the Japan market it's all about the legs.

 

[spiderman2]

It will be interesting to see how it does in China. From what I have heard china is very hard to predect. I mean terminator genisys made more there then star wars the force awakens did. I have heard that star wars don't have a lot of history in china but still.

 

[spiderman2]

I wonder how much the movie will drop off when Xmen and Alice come out? I mean by then this movie will be going on weekend 4 and I have heard that most movies by weekend 5 have made like 90% of what they are going to end at and with 2 big movies coming out in weekend 4 in xmen and Alice I wonder if that will basicly be the end for this movie by then.

 

[InCali]

Kim Jong-Un really going to be showing a film called Captain America in his entertainment district?

Does that mean you don't think it'll happen?

Maybe they'll rename it Captain Korea? It has a nice alliterative ring to it.....

 

[InCali]

It will be interesting to see how it does in China. From what I have heard china is very hard to predect. I mean terminator genisys made more there then star wars the force awakens did. I have heard that star wars don't have a lot of history in china but still.

Yeah, but AoU pretty much shredded in China, so I think CW will do just fine there.

 

[InCali]

I wonder how much the movie will drop off when Xmen and Alice come out? I mean by then this movie will be going on weekend 4 and I have heard that most movies by weekend 5 have made like 90% of what they are going to end at and with 2 big movies coming out in weekend 4 in xmen and Alice I wonder if that will basicly be the end for this movie by then.

That will be after 3 full weeks of release. At that point in time, The Avengers had made almost $500M DOM. I'm not saying CW will be at that level, but it gives you some perspective of how much damage a movie can do in 3 weeks of release.

On the 4th weekend MIB hit and grossed over 50M and TA only took about a 34% hit. I think Apocalypse will do better, but still.....

 

[spiderman2]

That will be after 3 full weeks of release. At that point in time, The Avengers had made almost $500M DOM. I'm not saying CW will be at that level, but it gives you some perspective of how much damage a movie can do in 3 weeks of release.

On the 4th weekend MIB hit and grossed over 50M and TA only took about a 34% hit. I think Apocalypse will do better, but still.....

Oh interesting about the 34% but that was also just 1 movie in MIB. Where here you got 2 with xmen and Alice. While if avengers was at all most 500m DOM after 3 weeks I think this will be around that number to.

 

[Zarex]

Disney is probably ok with the BO drop off as they will be continuing their strong 2016 performance (Zootopia, Jungle Book, Civil War and Deadpool minority stake) with Alice and their ownership interest in Apocalypse.

 

[johnboy3434]

Here's my attempt to predict the movie's entire domestic run, based on BoxOffice.com's opening weekend prediction (I'll adjust it when they make a final prediction next week) and the drops of two comparable films. Hold onto your butts...

Opening Weekend: $213M
2nd Weekend: $119M (-44.1%)
3rd Weekend: $69.7M (-41.5%)
4th Weekend: $45.1M (-35.4%)
5th Weekend: $23.9M (-47%)
6th Weekend: $15.2M (-36.5%)
7th Weekend: $11.5M (-24%)
8th Weekend: $8.14M (-29.4%)
9th Weekend: $5.3M (-34.8%)
10th Weekend: $3.17M (-40.3%)
TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $694M (3.26x)

Pulled-from-My-Ass Total International Gross: $846M
PROJECTED WORLDWIDE TOTAL: $1.54G

 

[InCali]

Here's my attempt to predict the movie's entire domestic run, based on BoxOffice.com's opening weekend prediction (I'll adjust it when they make a final prediction next week) and the drops of two comparable films. Hold onto your butts...

Opening Weekend: $213M
2nd Weekend: $119M (-44.1%)
3rd Weekend: $69.7M (-41.5%)
4th Weekend: $45.1M (-35.4%)
5th Weekend: $23.9M (-47%)
6th Weekend: $15.2M (-36.5%)
7th Weekend: $11.5M (-24%)
8th Weekend: $8.14M (-29.4%)
9th Weekend: $5.3M (-34.8%)
10th Weekend: $3.17M (-40.3%)
TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $694M (3.26x)

Pulled-from-My-Ass Total International Gross: $846M
PROJECTED WORLDWIDE TOTAL: $1.54G

That is a mighty DOM # and if CW gets there, that'll surprise (pleasantly) me. It'll also mean that it's very, VERY good. I think your initial drops are generous and early drops have a ripple effect as you go out in time.

That being said, I think you have underestimated the OS box office (but that's not too surprising considering where you got it t: ).

 

[LucDisfilm19]

That is a mighty DOM # and if CW gets there, that'll surprise (pleasantly) me. It'll also mean that it's very, VERY good. I think your initial drops are generous and early drops have a ripple effect as you go out in time.

That being said, I think you have underestimated the OS box office (but that's not too surprising considering where you got it t: ).

I'll jump on and say this is good and possibly right for CW. But, overseas might surprise us if numbers overseas are higher.

 

[kedrell]

Different opening days, it was the start of a holiday for CW. This is Golden Week though so I expect it will do very well over the next 8 or so days after that with the Japan market it's all about the legs.

They both opened on a Friday. Now AoU opened on a Saturday over in Japan so THAT'S not a good one to use for comparison but IM3 seems like a good measuring stick to use.

 

[Gerontophobe]

Here's my attempt to predict the movie's entire domestic run, based on BoxOffice.com's opening weekend prediction (I'll adjust it when they make a final prediction next week) and the drops of two comparable films. Hold onto your butts...

Opening Weekend: $213M
2nd Weekend: $119M (-44.1%)
3rd Weekend: $69.7M (-41.5%)
4th Weekend: $45.1M (-35.4%)
5th Weekend: $23.9M (-47%)
6th Weekend: $15.2M (-36.5%)
7th Weekend: $11.5M (-24%)
8th Weekend: $8.14M (-29.4%)
9th Weekend: $5.3M (-34.8%)
10th Weekend: $3.17M (-40.3%)
TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $694M (3.26x)

Pulled-from-My-Ass Total International Gross: $846M
PROJECTED WORLDWIDE TOTAL: $1.54G

I don't think your second week drop is very realistic. I'm very optimistic about CW's legs but huge openings tend to mean large second weekend drops. I think the best case scenario is a 50% drop. Of the 12 films to open to more than $150M, only two have done better than 50%: TFA (which is a class by itself and was a holiday release) and Jurassic World (-49%, which to me is still a mystery).

That leads me to believe your multiple is probably a bit high (Avengers managed a 3.01). The only MCU flicks to get near that all opened much lower and surprised relative to expectations: GotG (3.53, not happening), IM (3.23), and Ant-Man (3.15). Still, I think CW is very likely to top $600M and quite possibly $650M. By the way, which films did you consider "comparable"?

Also, your international gross is probably low as >$1B seems like a safe bet at this point.

 

[Gerontophobe]

They both opened on a Friday. Now AoU opened on a Saturday over in Japan so THAT'S not a good one to use for comparison but IM3 seems like a good measuring stick to use.

I've given up on trying to compare anything in Japan. Films can have crazy legs in that market so the OW isn't very helpful. Stat that always blows my mind: Frozen opened to $7.5M in Japan. It wasn't until week 14 that it made less than $5 in a weekend (although it only made more than $9M once) for a final multiple of 33.1.

More on topic, MCU flicks vary pretty broadly in multiples, from 7.09 (Avengers) to 2.98 (Captain America). Interestingly, both Cap movies have by far the worst multipliers (notably less than even TDW and TIH).

 

[kedrell]

Yeah but no MCU movie has ever had Spider-man in it. And he's the undisputed king of all western superheroes over in Japan. So don't expect this to play like the other 2 Cap films.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

I've given up on trying to compare anything in Japan. Films can have crazy legs in that market so the OW isn't very helpful. Stat that always blows my mind: Frozen opened to $7.5M in Japan. It wasn't until week 14 that it made less than $5 in a weekend (although it only made more than $9M once) for a final multiple of 33.1.

More on topic, MCU flicks vary pretty broadly in multiples, from 7.09 (Avengers) to 2.98 (Captain America). Interestingly, both Cap movies have by far the worst multipliers (notably less than even TDW and TIH).

What was the multiplier for TA and AOU in Japan?

I think CW will play out more like an Avengers movie.

 

[Silver Surfer]

China loves them some MCU, look at how well Ant-Man did in China, heck it made more than BvS over there.

 

[Gerontophobe]

What was the multiplier for TA and AOU in Japan?

I think CW will play out more like an Avengers movie.

Avengers managed a 7.09 while AoU did 4.09X OW, so still a pretty big range.

Yeah but no MCU movie has ever had Spider-man in it. And he's the undisputed king of all western superheroes over in Japan. So don't expect this to play like the other 2 Cap films.

Spider-Man movies have done pretty well although the totals for the last two were quite a bit lower than the original trilogy. As for legs, the original trilogy ranged from 5.79 to 5.93 while TASM did 5.28 and TASM2 7.37 (both off of much lower openings).

To me, that would suggest a 5.5 to 6 multiplier is likely, falling between Avengers movie and close to Spider-Man flicks.

 

[johnboy3434]

By the way, which films did you consider "comparable"?

Spider-Man (2002) and The Avengers (2012). Reasoning?

-Both May releases
-Both rated PG-13
-Both opened on Friday
-Both opened in 3000+ theater sites
-Both debuted at #1
-Both made over $500M domestic (post-inflation)

The first three correspond with CW, while the last three are very likely to correspond with it.

 

[InCali]

Spider-Man (2002) and The Avengers (2012). Reasoning?

-Both May releases
-Both rated PG-13
-Both opened on Friday
-Both opened in 3000+ theater sites
-Both debuted at #1
-Both made over $500M domestic (post-inflation)

The first three correspond with CW, while the last three are very likely to correspond with it.

The only thing that's "really" in doubt is the last one and I'd prolly take the over on that one.


EDIT: There's NO doubt CW will debut at #1 unless they rerelease the extended cut of BvS next Friday.....

 

[Gerontophobe]

Spider-Man (2002) and The Avengers (2012). Reasoning?

-Both May releases
-Both rated PG-13
-Both opened on Friday
-Both opened in 3000+ theater sites
-Both debuted at #1
-Both made over $500M domestic (post-inflation)

The first three correspond with CW, while the last three are very likely to correspond with it.

Hmmm... Avengers makes sense to me as it is by far the best comp. SM on the other hand doesn't seem very comparable. It's opening weekend, while large at the time, is still only a little more than half of what CW will open to, so it's bound to have better legs. I looked through May and there really aren't any better comps since most of the top OWs were for films with mixed reception (or at least not as great as CW is shaping up to be).

I think Jurassic World is probably the next best comp. after Avengers. It is a PG-13 summer blockbuster that opened north of $200M and had great WOM (A CinemaScore). It's not a superhero flick but it is a 4-quadrant film like CW. As a plus, its international gross is also pretty comparable to CW.

Other possibilities include TDKR (although its numbers are screwy because of the shooting) and TDK (although that probably overstates the legs CW will have). Regardless, I think everyone agrees this thing is going to have fantastic legs to go with a massive OW.

 

[Gerontophobe]

The only thing that's "really" in doubt is the last one and I'd prolly take the over on that one.


EDIT: There's NO doubt CW will debut at #1 unless they rerelease the extended cut of BvS next Friday.....

I'm feeling like $500M is almost a certainty. If CW opens to $210M next weekend, it would need to have the second worst legs of the MCU (just slightly worse than IM3) to not clear that bench mark. I just don't see that happening.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

It's crazy how Spiderman 1 & Avengers were a decade apart and literally did the same thing...shocked us at the box office. Spiderman the first film to break the 100 million OW barrier and Avengers the first film to break the 200 million OW barrier. Crazy.

 

[Tilapia]

It's crazy how Spiderman 1 & Avengers were a decade apart and literally did the same thing...shocked us at the box office. Spiderman the first film to break the 100 million OW barrier and Avengers the first film to break the 200 million OW barrier. Crazy.

Fiat currency... but yeah, no one envisioned an MCU blossoming to this extent. The sad thing is, Spidey, FF, and X-Men largely missed out on the prime years, but hopefully the former two make a big comeback in the current universe and many big things are still to come.