Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[SomeOldGuy]

Does that mean you don't think it'll happen?

Maybe they'll rename it Captain Korea? It has a nice alliterative ring to it.....

I'm pretty sure it would be more like Captain Death to the Capitalist Running Dogs of the Imperialist West All Glory to the Father of Juche and His Beloved Heirs Man.

 

[Mysteryman]

I'm pretty sure it would be more like Captain Death to the Capitalist Running Dogs of the Imperialist West All Glory to the Father of Juche and His Beloved Heirs Man.

They have to call it that just so I could see the Marquee large enough to fit that title!

 

[kedrell]

Just call him Captain D.C.R.D.I.W.A.G.F.J.H.B.H.M.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The overseas numbers are looking pretty great. Makes you wonder if it can make it to a billion overseas.

 

[kedrell]

I think it can.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I can't believe they have this movie bootlegged already. This is the problem when they don't do a world wide release.

Only bootleg available is all in Spanish so I highly doubt it will have much of an effect on the DOM BO.

 

[QueenOroro808]

It's slaying the competition!

 

[Jordanstine]

@BoxOffice

CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR: $200.2M Overseas Total #CaptainAmerica #CivilWar

https://***********/boxoffice/status/726795994042646528

 

[Mysteryman]

Has it opened in China yet?

 

[JB33]

Captain America: Civil War Nabs 'Avengers'-sized $200.2M Overseas Debut:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ers-sized-200-2m-overseas-debut/#299bb4b63be8

In his article, Scott Mendelson plays around with different domestic and international multipliers to guess the final worldwide numbers, which range from about $1.1B to over $1.8B.

In terms of worldwide opening, my range for its domestic opening weekend is anywhere from $190M to $210M which would give this a worldwide opening of $390M to $410M. We'll see next Monday!

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Has it opened in China yet?

Nope. Opens at the same time there as in the US.

 

[TalismanRing]

Captain America: Civil War Nabs 'Avengers'-sized $200.2M Overseas Debut:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ers-sized-200-2m-overseas-debut/#299bb4b63be8

In his article, Scott Mendelson plays around with different domestic and international multipliers to guess the final worldwide numbers, which range from about $1.1B to over $1.8B.

In terms of worldwide opening, my range for its domestic opening weekend is anywhere from $190M to $210M which would give this a worldwide opening of $390M to $410M. We'll see next Monday!

It hasn't opened in China, Russia, Italy, Argentina, Peru, NZ and a bunch of other smaller markets.

Iron Man 3 O/S is the floor which if it does $400m domestic would be a minimum $1.2 ww.

 

[Coolkid]

Can anyone, Who has seen Civil War, tell your opinion whether it can make Avengers money or not...???
How is it compared to The Avengers... Cos it's my all time favorite Superhero movie...!!!

 

[Gerontophobe]

Captain America: Civil War Nabs 'Avengers'-sized $200.2M Overseas Debut:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ers-sized-200-2m-overseas-debut/#299bb4b63be8

In his article, Scott Mendelson plays around with different domestic and international multipliers to guess the final worldwide numbers, which range from about $1.1B to over $1.8B.

In terms of worldwide opening, my range for its domestic opening weekend is anywhere from $190M to $210M which would give this a worldwide opening of $390M to $410M. We'll see next Monday!

He's pretty positive but I think he actually might be underselling it. He uses AoU to estimate the international total but I wouldn't be surprised to see this hold up better. Also, his choice of domestic multiple is kind of weird since he thinks it will play more like AoU, IM2, IM3, or TDW, none of which had the great reviews of CW. I think the probable worldwide range is something like $1.3B to $1.6B.

 

[WilliamK99]

Just had an argument with an idiot who claimed since BvS made more opening weekend it's proof it was a better movie Never mind the fact BvS had a same day release in nearly all markets, he claimed if Civil War was so good, it would have broken the records regardless... SMH... Damn Marvel for not opening in all markets at same time...

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Just had an argument with an idiot who claimed since BvS made more opening weekend it's proof it was a better movie Never mind the fact BvS had a same day release in nearly all markets, he claimed if Civil War was so good, it would have broken the records regardless... SMH... Damn Marvel for not opening in all markets at same time...

rofl on the bolded part.

 

[Vincanws]

Only bootleg available is all in Spanish so I highly doubt it will have much of an effect on the DOM BO.

Because bootlegs don't come me out of the US?

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Captain America: Civil War Nabs 'Avengers'-sized $200.2M Overseas Debut:
http://www.forbes.com/sites/scottme...ers-sized-200-2m-overseas-debut/#299bb4b63be8

In his article, Scott Mendelson plays around with different domestic and international multipliers to guess the final worldwide numbers, which range from about $1.1B to over $1.8B.

In terms of worldwide opening, my range for its domestic opening weekend is anywhere from $190M to $210M which would give this a worldwide opening of $390M to $410M. We'll see next Monday!

I'm disappointed with him. The range he has given us is too WIDE. Between $1.1B-$1.8B? Really? What a shame.

I'd say between $1.5B-$1.8B

 

[Raiden]

Just had an argument with an idiot who claimed since BvS made more opening weekend it's proof it was a better movie Never mind the fact BvS had a same day release in nearly all markets, he claimed if Civil War was so good, it would have broken the records regardless... SMH... Damn Marvel for not opening in all markets at same time...

Not nearly all the markets; BVS released on ALL the markets on the same weekend. WB obviously wanted the movie to break this faux record just to make a headline.

 

[Spiderdevil]

It hasn't opened in China, Russia, Italy, Argentina, Peru, NZ and a bunch of other smaller markets.

Iron Man 3 O/S is the floor which if it does $400m domestic would be a minimum $1.2 ww.

That's horrible!

It's like 1/4th of a ticket!

 

[JB33]

I'm disappointed with him. The range he has given us is too WIDE. Between $1.1B-$1.8B? Really? What a shame.

I'd say between $1.5B-$1.8B

That's not necessarily his predicted range. He's simply playing around with different multipliers and that's the range that's covered by those multipliers. It's more of a "fun with math" article rather than an analytical or predictive piece.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

I think I read that it opened in like only 63% of the projected markets, which makes that $200 million look really good. If CW had opened all at once overseas, I think we could easily have seen it take in $300-$350 million before it opened in North America.

 

[JB33]

I think I read that it opened in like only 63% of the projected markets, which makes that $200 million look really good. If CW had opened all at once overseas, I think we could easily have seen it take in $300-$350 million before it opened in North America.

Yep, agreed. This is why the record for all time worldwide opening is an imperfect one. There are variances in international openings.

Same as the "fastest to $1 billion" record. I remember Furious 7 setting the record last year and I think Avengers: Age of Ultron could have challenged that if it didn't have to wait a couple weeks to be released in China.

 

[johnboy3434]

So, I screwed up with my weekend-by-weekend predictions on the last page. When I approximated my time series, I mislabeled a few settings, etc, and the results came in a little higher than they should. Here's my real estimates for CW... to be updated next week right before opening day.

Opening Weekend: $213M
2nd Weekend: $113M (-46.8%)
3rd Weekend: $66.1M (-41.6%)
4th Weekend: $42.7M (-35.3%)
5th Weekend: $22.7M (-46.9%)
6th Weekend: $14.3M (-37%)
7th Weekend: $10.9M (-24.1%)
8th Weekend: $7.62M (-29.8%)
9th Weekend: $4.98M (-34.7%)
10th Weekend: $2.93M (-41.1%)
TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $673M (3.16x)

Pulled-from-My-Ass Total Foreign Gross: $821M
PROJECTED WORLDWIDE GROSS: $1.49G

 

[JB33]

So, I screwed up with my weekend-by-weekend predictions on the last page. When I approximated my time series, I mislabeled a few settings, etc, and the results came in a little higher than they should. Here's my real estimates for CW... to be updated next week right before opening day.

Opening Weekend: $213M
2nd Weekend: $113M (-46.8%)
3rd Weekend: $66.1M (-41.6%)
4th Weekend: $43M (-35%)
5th Weekend: $22.9M (-46.7%)
6th Weekend: $14.9M (-35%)
7th Weekend: $11.3M (-24%)
8th Weekend: $7.79M (-31.2%)
9th Weekend: $5.19M (-33.3%)
10th Weekend: $3.25M (-37.4%)
TOTAL DOMESTIC GROSS: $679M (3.18x)

Pulled-from-My-Ass Total Foreign Gross: $827M
PROJECTED WORLDWIDE GROSS: $1.51G

I think your domestic drops are too generous, but at the same time your foreign gross is too low. All in all your total worldwide number could be pretty damn close.