Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

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‘Captain America: Civil War’ Looking At 5th Best All-Time Opening With $176.4M-$182M; Unseating ‘Iron Man 3’ – Box Office

3rd UPDATE, 9:28PM: Captain America: Civil War is looking at an estimated $74M -$76M opening day, for a $176.4M-$182M opening according to industry estimates tonight. This range puts Civil War as the fifth highest opening of all-time, a gross that any studio would envy. Disney always saw the opening for this Marvel titlehere at $175M, while the industry pushed Civil War toward the $190M-$200M range. Nothing is broken here in the Marvel universe. Sequelitis just comes with the territory of big branded franchise movies. Make no mistake, this is a healthy start to the summer. To say that Civil War is falling beneath projections is petty, particularly when grosses are this high. Tracking can never predict how big these openers can go based on a small statistical sampling, particularly when their first choice/unaided awareness is flying off the chart.
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RLAAMJR. said:
They should have had Captain America go shirtless while pulling the helicopter.
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Then there'd be people going on about how cheaply gratuitous the scene was but it would definitely have been an iconic moment ala Craig walking out of the sea in Casino Royale.
 
The horror, the horror.

I still think WOM is going to explode, but yeah, 190M now is the best, dream-like, scenario. I'm betting on 180+ though, Iron Man 3 multipliers get it close to 190.
 
DarthSkywalker said:
Well in a few years, they might not have one in the top 5. Thus disaster. :o
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JUMP OFF THIS SINKING SHIP!!!

titanic-sinking-underwater.jpg


:sly:
 
Tcmjuk87 said:
*cough* Suicide Squad *cough*
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Let's face it , that movie is all going to be about Harley - not will smith , not joker & the rest of the freaks , it's going to be harley. They are smart to show her so prominently in the trailer.
 
Only $175 million? Clearly CW is Marvel's first flop and superhero fatigue has set in. Disney should just fold up the Marvel shop and focus on making what audiences really want, deep and reflective art films about 18th century yak herders in Mongolia and their struggles with invaders, nature and gender identity. :cwink:
 
Mysteryman said:
Forget Civil War, Yak Herders War coming in 2018!
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Don't rush it man! I want Yak Herders Begin fully fleshed out (two movies, Part I and Part II should be enough). Then "If this be my Yak Herder Destiny", "Yak Herders Return" and maybe YHW.
 
spiderman2 said:
Yeah but AOU also didn't get has good of reception has this movie or the first avengers movie. Also I think it is getting harder and harder to predict OW and over all numbers because I think sinces last year there have been more movies where predictions have been of like JW, Deadpool, BVS ect. Also this movies perdections where going up and now its like they are going down again.
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The theory has been tossed around that social media has an instant WOM effect not seen just ten years ago. This can really screw with the internal weekend multiple, as films that overachieve their already high predictions tend to have fantastic buzz. I think a lot of predictions were for a higher Friday and when Civil War didn't reach that, even good legs weren't enough to cross $200M.

I think the industry projections based off of the Friday results are pretty reasonable. They're assuming a ~2.4 internal multiple (7.2X Thursday), which is very good for $176-$182M. The most optimistic number (with a 2.55 like Avengers and Jurassic World) would give $191M as the upper bound. That means it is still possible (although unlikely) that CW edges out AoU for fourth. The lower bound is probably an AoU multiple (2.27) for a $167M OW, which would put it seventh and just ahead of... BvS.
 
Kanon said:
Don't rush it man! I want Yak Herders Begin fully fleshed out (two movies, Part I and Part II should be enough). Then "If this be my Yak Herder Destiny", "Yak Herders Return" and maybe YHW.
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As long as the antagonist isn't carrying around a jar of yak pee.
 
175-182 opening is fantastic guys. The sky is indeed, not falling
 
@ChinaBoxOffice: CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR earned est. $38.5M on Saturday, 2nd biggest day ever for import. 2-day total is $68.9M
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So that is fantastic news as CW is doing very well in China. It looks very likely that it will top $200M and maybe AoU ($240M) in the territory.
 
Damn, I guess Infinity War is cancelled. The Russos will never work again after this mess!
 
BOM estimating $75M Friday including Thursday previews.
 
I long ago predicted Civil war as the top comic book film as far as box office goes.i thought it would as far as domestic goes in the 400 Million range.
 
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