Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[LucDisfilm19]

While still hoping for $200+ mil OW, I am prepared to accept it if it falls below that. The lack of Avengers in the title probably hurt it a little. I guess we will see. Hopefully the WOM will bring a lot more business after this weekend and maintain excellent % drop here on out. I know I've been telling all my friends how good the movie is. Let's all spread the word!

Agreed.

 

[Nyarleth]

No matter how much money it makes I honestly think Disney is hurting themselves by not releasing movies everywhere at once. Bootlegs have been available online for like a week before it opened in NA.

 

[Mysteryman]

Why should it have Avengers in the title?

 

[spiderman2]

No matter how much money it makes I honestly think Disney is hurting themselves by not releasing movies everywhere at once. Bootlegs have been available online for like a week before it opened in NA.

I wonder how many people even watch Bootlegs? I mean I have no idea where you find them and I think a lot of times the pitcher is not good and I think those sites that have them tend to have a lot of virise on them.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

No matter how much money it makes I honestly think Disney is hurting themselves by not releasing movies everywhere at once. Bootlegs have been available online for like a week before it opened in NA.

That doesn't really affect a movie that much, there are bootlegs for every movie that is released. International markets are most likely to watch them than American audiences so if anything releasing the film overseas before is a good plan.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

Why should it have Avengers in the title?

Its harder to market a movie named "Captain AMERICA" in certain countries, which is why the first 2 had different names in some markets.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

That doesn't really affect a movie that much, there are bootlegs for every movie that is released. International markets are most likely to watch them than American audiences so if anything releasing the film overseas before is a good plan.

This is one of the main reasonings for the staggered release of Marvel's movies. The other is to build the hype heading into its North American release.

 

[Iceman]

I've seen their projections fluctuate considerably before. I don't remember the numbers but their Friday projections for Deadpool for example was maybe $30 million lower or something than what it ended up being.

Will be interesting to see what happens with CW.

Hopefully this is one of those times. But they adjusted down from their own $180-200m range earlier after afternoon matinee numbers looked slightly weaker than for AoU.

 

[Raiden]

It's only Friday; I believe that if Saturday is much higher thanks to WOM, 200 mil is within reach.

 

[JB33]

I have no idea why but I totally felt this coming yesterday (earlier in the thread I REDUCED my OW prediction from 190-210 to 180-200 whilst various predictions continued to rise). It just feels like, no matter how big and superb a movie this is, it's still a Captain America movie.

I said it before and I'll say it again: don't underestimate the brand power of Avengers in the title. Avengers films are the main events. Civil War is very much an event film itself, but it doesn't have the same aura around it with the general audience. There is still that small contingent that may wait to see it later or pass on it altogether.

 

[Wildcard]

DOM and WW? Probably not.

OW? Maybe.

Probably will fall a tad short of JW's opening numbers. I could be wrong, though.

 

[StormC]

Having just come away from seeing the movie, I can see why it might not make as much money as an Avengers title. The action is generally much more understated, and there's a lot of character-driven dramatic scenes throughout the movie. These are reasons why I think it's a fantastic film, but I think it won't have quite have the same pull on the GA.

 

[Marvel]

Having just come away from seeing the movie, I can see why it might not make as much money as an Avengers title. The action is generally much more understated, and there's a lot of character-driven dramatic scenes throughout the movie. These are reasons why I think it's a fantastic film, but I think it won't have quite have the same pull on the GA.

I think the "I like these heroes so I don't want to see them beating each other up" mentality is in play for certain viewers. I've heard that more than once from a few female friends of mine. It's a small factor but a factor nonetheless.

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

Having just come away from seeing the movie, I can see why it might not make as much money as an Avengers title. The action is generally much more understated, and there's a lot of character-driven dramatic scenes throughout the movie. These are reasons why I think it's a fantastic film, but I think it won't have quite have the same pull on the GA.

That would be a real shame. I think the action is every bit as good as the two Avengers films (better than AoU IMO) and the story is better written. It may not be on the same scale as Avengers but you don't need it. Hopefully the WOM will help the movie to make Avengers like numbers at the box office.

 

[marieylee]

I have no idea why but I totally felt this coming yesterday (earlier in the thread I REDUCED my OW prediction from 190-210 to 180-200 whilst various predictions continued to rise). It just feels like, no matter how big and superb a movie this is, it's still a Captain America movie.

I said it before and I'll say it again: don't underestimate the brand power of Avengers in the title. Avengers films are the main events. Civil War is very much an event film itself, but it doesn't have the same aura around it with the general audience. There is still that small contingent that may wait to see it later or pass on it altogether.

Yeah, agreed. When the CW trailer showed during The Jungle Book, tons of people didn't even know Spider-Man was in the movie, and when the trailer was first playing, I remember someone saying "theres going to be a new Avengers movie?". It shocked me, but a lot of these people (parents) probably don't really keep up with the news.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Probably will fall a tad short of JW's opening numbers. I could be wrong, though.

Easy to say now.

We have Friday estimates available.

 

[Ctfxcwatcher]

Hmmmm. Now I'm interested to see Saturday's numbers. I wasn't expecting those Friday numbers. Will Saturday increase? Decrease, Or stay flat? What do you y'all think? Any gut feelings?

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yeah but AOU also didn't get has good of reception has this movie or the first avengers movie. Also I think it is getting harder and harder to predict OW and over all numbers because I think sinces last year there have been more movies where predictions have been of like JW, Deadpool, BVS ect. Also this movies perdections where going up and now its like they are going down again.

Predictions are going up, actuals are going down. But JW and TFA really broke the system, so they have inflated predictions for a bit. At 180m, this would be the 5th biggest opening of all time.

 

[Ant-Man26]

I'm interested in seeing how much Mother's Day will affect the Sunday numbers. I don't think it will matter much in the long run though. This movie will (hopefully) have legs for awhile. Even if it doesn't do as well as we all expected it to do and reach a billion, it's still another A to hang on the Marvel fridge.

 

[AnneFan]

It's entirely possible despite the reception the film is getting the concept itself might not be all that as appealing as expected.

It's possible.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Predictions are going up, actuals are going down. But JW and TFA really broke the system, so they have inflated predictions for a bit. At 180m, this would be the 5th biggest opening of all time.

Only 4 out of 6 of the biggest OW of all time belong to Marvel Studios.

What a disaster.

 

[First Avenger]

Only 4 out of 6 of the biggest OW of all time belong to Marvel Studios.

What a disaster.

Lol

 

[Tilapia]

Saw the film, I'll say, probably won't have the legs to carry it past JW, but still solid to park somewhere before or after Avengers numbers. Just seemed to be too much dialogue, and a lot of the kids were yawning. Also the people that didn't watch Ultron and Winter Soldier will be kind of lost with some of the characters and other stuff, so how can the film make that much more?

I was happy with the story and how the film turned out. Probably the last MCU movie I watch in theaters for some time, but I think this was the top note in the MCU.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

They should have had Captain America go shirtless while pulling the helicopter.

 

[Reek]

Anyways...

What are the Friday #s?