Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[InCali]

This is just an opinion obviously, but I think in the non-English speaking countries the spectacle is most important as part of the performance is lost in the translation/dub. And in Europe if this was Avengers: Civil War I think that would give it the edge over being a Cap film. There's no reason for Cap 3 without all these characters to be challenging Avengers and Iron Man 3, more like a good 50% or so improvement over TWS to go for a billion. And in some countries like Germany they are scared even to use the name Captain America (it's called The First Avenger: Civil War there). Plus Europe is a much more mature market so there is not that much growth unlike the rising developing countries where every sequel to a film that is of similar quality and reception will do bigger numbers just due to larger capacity every year.

I think they've been marketing it with an Avengers feel to it and I can understand why.

 

[third3ye]

AoU did, what, about 200M in China as I recall. If CW gets in those heady waters, I think 1B is a real possibility. Add a big DOM BO and you most definitely have Avengers type numbers.

$240m actually. One would think CW should outperform AoU based on reviews alone, plus their press tour made a stop in Beijing (same as AoU), but it can be a wildcard and unpredictable territory at times. Marvel Studios do pretty well in China though, so I'm probably worrying for the sake of worrying.

 

[spider-neil]

I think they've been marketing it with an Avengers feel to it and I can understand why.

Plus you have the Spider-Man factor which is why they put '...hey everyone' in the trailer rather than revealing Spider-Man for the first time in the movie. Because they wanted bums on the seats.

 

[Jordanstine]

$240m actually. One would think CW should outperform AoU based on reviews alone, plus their press tour made a stop in Beijing (same as AoU), but it can be a wildcard and unpredictable territory at times. Marvel Studios do pretty well in China though, so I'm probably worrying for the sake of worrying.

Marvel's brand is solid in China, I mean Ant-man made more than Batman V Superman over there.

CW seems to be either breaking or close to breaking a lot of box offices in Asia.

People here in the US are already reporting sellouts for the weekend faster than BvS and AOU.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Movietickets.com:

CW 55%
TJB 11.5%

That didn't take long...lol.

 

[Spiderdevil]

Marvel's brand is solid in China, I mean Ant-man made more than Batman V Superman over there.

CW seems to be either breaking or close to breaking a lot of box offices in Asia.

People here in the US are already reporting sellouts for the weekend faster than BvS and AOU.

Plus Spidey, Spidey rules in Asia

 

[Spiderdevil]

This is just an opinion obviously, but I think in the non-English speaking countries the spectacle is most important as part of the performance is lost in the translation/dub. And in Europe if this was Avengers: Civil War I think that would give it the edge over being a Cap film. There's no reason for Cap 3 without all these characters to be challenging Avengers and Iron Man 3, more like a good 50% or so improvement over TWS to go for a billion. And in some countries like Germany they are scared even to use the name Captain America (it's called The First Avenger: Civil War there). Plus Europe is a much more mature market so there is not that much growth unlike the rising developing countries where every sequel to a film that is of similar quality and reception will do bigger numbers just due to larger capacity every year.

True, I believe it should have been called 'Marvel's Civil War' , that way they could have marketed it as an out and out vs ensemble movie like they did with the first Avengers, all the while avoiding the 'Avengers' title for the 'Oh not again!' effect due to AoU being released just last year, however good this movie may be, it still has 'Captain America' in the title and may not be as effective a name as 'Iron man' or 'Avengers'

 

[All-Father]

Plus Spidey, Spidey rules in Asia

Indeed, specially in Japan.

 

[Spiderdevil]

India too

 

[Iceman]

I think they've been marketing it with an Avengers feel to it and I can understand why.

Yes they have been, but the effect is not 100% (maybe 90% ) the same as having it actually be an Avengers or Marvel Universe event film where there is no need to put a slant on the marketing. It already would be epic from conception without even trying. On the other hand if they give us the exact same film but call it Ant Man 2: Civil War it will do a bit less.

True, I believe it should have been called 'Marvel's Civil War' , that way they could have marketed it as an out and out vs ensemble movie like they did with the first Avengers, all the while avoiding the 'Avengers' title for the 'Oh not again!' effect due to AoU being released just last year, however good this movie may be, it still has 'Captain America' in the title and may not be as effective a name as 'Iron man' or 'Avengers'

I think there was room to do both a Cap 3 and a Marvel universe event film. Not that it didn't turn out amazingly anyway but I would have liked for the MCU to be able to establish that universe event films were possible outside of just Avengers. That way street level heroes, independent guys (don't know for 100% sure if the likes of Strange and Spidey will be full time Avengers), other teams if they ever get the rights back to F4 or X-Men, and external things like GotG could all be encompassed in the title. Maybe they will try something like that after Phase 3, or we will be getting a lot of Avengers fims within the next 20 years (which is still extremely cool of course).

 

[Iceman]

Plus Spidey, Spidey rules in Asia

Indeed, specially in Japan.

Oh yes, forgot about that. I really hope they are showing that trailer with Spidey at the end and the TV spots with him in 24/7 over there. t:

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I hope CW can make an American opening weekend of $219.7M to add on to its overseas debut to have its worldwide opening be the record-breaking global superhero movie opening, beating out Batman V Superman by $100K.

 

[TalismanRing]

I hope CW can make an American opening weekend of $219.7M to add on to its overseas debut to have its worldwide opening be the record-breaking global superhero movie opening, beating out Batman V Superman by $100K.

CW didn't open in all countries O/S the same weekend like BvS did so adding Dom isn't giving it's true O/W numbers in every market. China alone will be $100m+ ow. AOU when adding all market openings was abut $550m.

 

[HolyShi]

When will monday numbers arrive?

As for the topic, I think there's no chance for CW to go less than 200 OW, less than 600 total and less than 1,5B total WW.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

CW didn't open in all countries O/S the same weekend like BvS did so adding Dom isn't giving it's true O/W numbers in every market. China alone will be $100m+ ow. AOU when adding all market openings was abut $550m.

That wasn't the case when they added up Avengers 1's USA OW with its overseas opening weekend.

 

[kedrell]

And they have third place atm, too. 2015 was Universal's year, now 2016 looks like it will belong to The Mouse.

Difference is that Disney is always at the very least the runner up year in and year out. Universal being at #1 was a once in a blue moon type deal. It'll be pretty much a horse's lifetime before you see that happen again for them. They've been one of the smaller of the major studios for a long time for a reason. They're back to their usual ranking of 5th place this year.

 

[spider-neil]

Oh yes, forgot about that. I really hope they are showing that trailer with Spidey at the end and the TV spots with him in 24/7 over there. t:

Personally, I would have preferred no Spider-Man in the trailers but there is no way on this earth you can have that much of a box office draw and not put him front and centre. Spider-Man will put bums on the seats.

 

[marshal99]

The japanese always have done things a bit differently. Their avengers age of ultron japanese trailer has a power ballad which was actually pretty awesome.

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The civil war one doesn't quite have the same zest. Their tv spot has a japanese soundtrack.

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[Iceman]

Personally, I would have preferred no Spider-Man in the trailers but there is no way on this earth you can have that much of a box office draw and not put him front and centre. Spider-Man will put bums on the seats.

Yep, always a balancing act between keeping big surprises for the film to make that experience better and adding serious power to the marketing. Adding Spidey is one of the biggest X-factors you can have.

 

[marshal99]

Surprisingly , Civil war only debut at no.3 in the japanese box office but with this week being the japanese golden week holidays , think the no. of people going to watch will be spread out throughout the week.

 

[JB33]

$23.9M for Captain America: Civil War overseas on Monday:

BoxOffice ‏@BoxOffice 5m5 minutes ago
CAPTAIN AMERICA: CIVIL WAR took in $23.9M overseas on Monday and has grossed $224.3M overseas to date. #CaptainAmerica #CivilWar

 

[RLAAMJR.]

True, I believe it should have been called 'Marvel's Civil War' , that way they could have marketed it as an out and out vs ensemble movie like they did with the first Avengers, all the while avoiding the 'Avengers' title for the 'Oh not again!' effect due to AoU being released just last year, however good this movie may be, it still has 'Captain America' in the title and may not be as effective a name as 'Iron man' or 'Avengers'

I was thinking about the title too, if the movie would sell better if the title was Avengers: Civil War instead of Captain America: Civil War.

MCU knew Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice was going to be released before this movie so why didn't they went with the title: Captain America vs Iron Man: Civil War?

 

[marshal99]

I was thinking about the title too, if the movie would sell better if the title was Avengers: Civil War instead of Captain America: Civil War.

MCU knew Batman vs Superman: Dawn of Justice was going to be released before this movie so why didn't they went with the title: Captain America vs Iron Man: Civil War?

Nope , this is a captain america movie at its core , civil war is fine , don't need the avengers civil war or vs in any shape or form.

 

[JB33]

Guys, the reason they didn't go with a different title is simple: this is the 3rd film in the CAPTAIN AMERICA trilogy. It's that simple. No matter how big in scope this film is, it's Captain America 3. Why would you name it something different? It would be like saying, why isn't Iron Man 3 called "Extremis"?

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Guys, the reason they didn't go with a different title is simple: this is the 3rd film in the CAPTAIN AMERICA trilogy. It's that simple. No matter how big in scope this film is, it's Captain America 3. Why would you name it something different? It would be like saying, why isn't Iron Man 3 called "Extremis"?

You mean they went with a different title to make it the third Captain America film.