Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[Mysteryman]

So, whats better, opening all at once both domestically and worldwide, or spreading it out?

 

[JB33]

So, whats better, opening all at once both domestically and worldwide, or spreading it out?

I think all it once. Not only does it make the numbers more true and all inclusive - which I guess doesn't really matter in the grand scheme of things, it's just for box office nerds like me - but it also enhances the worldwide event feel of the movie. It already is a worldwide event but releasing it in all territories at the same time means that everyone in the world is truly all going to see the movie at the same time.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

Spreading it out so that people will be talking about the movie longer either by people themselves, on news, newspapaers, on the internet, etc.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

Because bootlegs don't come me out of the US?

Well, there will be plenty of cams up as soon as it releases in the DOM market. Of course, if an HD version leaked to the net it would dent the BO but having a spanish only cam isn't going to be good for much other than crappy screen grabs.

So, whats better, opening all at once both domestically and worldwide, or spreading it out?

Well, the reason BvS opened in every market all at once and also the reason they embargoed the critics until very close to the release was because WB knew they had a dud so they marketed the crap out if it very effectively to make those OW numbers as high as possible since they knew once WOM kicked in of its actual quality it was going to go down fast which is exactly what happened.

As for the reasons one wants a staggered release, I think the main reason is for the legs of the film although I'm not totally sure. It does seem to me though that when you have a staggered release it builds hype up around all the [laces that are getting it a bit later since you have others in the world talking about how awesome it is.

 

[Iceman]

I just saw it for the first time. There are going to be a tonne of people going back for repeat viewings. Just too much fun, at the same time as being a great film.

 

[kedrell]

I think I read that it opened in like only 63% of the projected markets, which makes that $200 million look really good. If CW had opened all at once overseas, I think we could easily have seen it take in $300-$350 million before it opened in North America.

50% actually. IMDB lists 66 markets with release dates so far. Maybe there's more but I don't have that information. According to IMDB it just had an OW in 33 markets so that's half*. But the 2 largest markets of USA & China are still yet to come so the 2nd half will surely be bigger than the 1st half. With regard to the 33 markets yet to bow, there are 21 markets opening at various days during the forthcoming weekdays and then on Friday the final 12 markets open.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3498820/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_dt_dt#releases

*Box Office Mojo did report that it was opened in 38 markets but that might just have been including the 5 premiers in L.A., Paris, Berlin, Singapore & London...all between 4/12/16 thru 4/26/16.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Some comparative info for from deadline's write up. Note the impact of exchange rates.

Disney estimates the opening is 5% below Ultron; 26% ahead of both Iron Man 3 and The Avengers; and +157% ahead of Captain America: The Winter Soldier when comparing the same suite of territories and all at today’s exchange rates. Ultron went on to be the biggest superhero movie of all time internationally with $946M ($893M at current rates). It opened at $202M last year or $212M at today’s exchange rates.

http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain...tional-box-office-weekend-results-1201747374/

 

[FunkMiller]

Only 50 million shy of BvS, in approximately half the territories, including no China yet?

Jesus.

 

[LucDisfilm19]

I'm hoping for a $219.9M DOW to add on to Civil War's overseas debut to top BvS's opening weekend record by $100K for Civil War to break the all-time record for global debut for a comic-book/superhero movie.

 

[Gerontophobe]

So, whats better, opening all at once both domestically and worldwide, or spreading it out?

Releasing all at once is a great strategy for a film that may face negative WOM (like BvS) because it helps ensure that negativity doesn't dent openings in later markets (since there aren't any). It also generates a ton a good press (unless the movie totally bombs) since the numbers are inflated.

A staggered release is much more common however. Usually studios allow foreign distributors (or the foreign divisions of their company) to determine when it is best to release a film. This usually takes into consideration things like national holidays and local films, both of which can have a large impact on OW and final gross figures. Also, it allows good will to build and raise OWs in later territories (assuming the movie is well-received). The biggest negative is piracy in the internet age may play some role but this effect, while oft cited, is poorly quantified or understood; it may not make much difference for blockbusters.

 

[Gerontophobe]

50% actually. IMDB lists 66 markets with release dates so far. Maybe there's more but I don't have that information. According to IMDB it just had an OW in 33 markets so that's half*. But the 2 largest markets of USA & China are still yet to come so the 2nd half will surely be bigger than the 1st half. With regard to the 33 markets yet to bow, there are 21 markets opening at various days during the forthcoming weekdays and then on Friday the final 12 markets open.

http://www.imdb.com/title/tt3498820/releaseinfo?ref_=tt_dt_dt#releases

*Box Office Mojo did report that it was opened in 38 markets but that might just have been including the 5 premiers in L.A., Paris, Berlin, Singapore & London...all between 4/12/16 thru 4/26/16.

I believe the percent footprint is generally based not on absolute count of markets but rather a weighted one, accounting for larger and smaller markets. In other words, "63%" would be markets that compose 63% of box office grosses. Note that this doesn't include the US as it is an international, not worldwide, footprint.

I think 63% is pretty accurate. CW opened in most major markets, missing just Russia, Italy, and most importantly China. The other markets that open next weekend are mainly smaller.

 

[kedrell]

Some comparative info for from deadline's write up. Note the impact of exchange rates.



http://deadline.com/2016/05/captain...tional-box-office-weekend-results-1201747374/

And AoU opened in 59 markets prior to it's domestic opening and the only other big markets left to open at or later than the USA last year for it were China & Japan. So I'd say even with the exchange rate going against CW and all it being only 5% off AoU with far fewer markets it's opened in it looks solid to me that it will have a good shot at $1B foreign all by itself. I want this to kick the crap out of JW so bad right now. I'd like it to do likewise for SW:TFA but that's another $400-500m WW and a whole other ballgame. I'll be satisfied with beating JW.

 

[SomeOldGuy]

Well, as a massive SW fanboy I can't root for it to beat TFA but I never figured out why JW blew up like it did. So beating that's fine by me!

 

[Gerontophobe]

And AoU opened in 59 markets prior to it's domestic opening and the only other big markets left to open at or later than the USA last year for it were China & Japan. So I'd say even with the exchange rate going against CW and all it being only 5% off AoU with far fewer markets it's opened in it looks solid to me that it will have a good shot at $1B foreign all by itself. I want this to kick the crap out of JW so bad right now. I'd like it to do likewise for SW:TFA but that's another $400-500m WW and a whole other ballgame. I'll be satisfied with beating JW.

I enjoyed JW but I wouldn't mind seeing the MCU top it. Mostly I just want the OW to beat it to see what Universal (or at least Spielberg) puts out in response. I find that tradition kind of fun.

As for beating TFA, it really has no chance. I mean, it could do $300M in China and still not come close, which I'm fine with. I should point out that TFA was the first Star Wars film I saw in theaters so it was pretty cool. (I actually didn't even see the original trilogy until I started college and I have yet to watch the prequels.)

 

[Iceman]

Releasing all at once is a great strategy for a film that may face negative WOM (like BvS) because it helps ensure that negativity doesn't dent openings in later markets (since there aren't any). It also generates a ton a good press (unless the movie totally bombs) since the numbers are inflated.

A staggered release is much more common however. Usually studios allow foreign distributors (or the foreign divisions of their company) to determine when it is best to release a film. This usually takes into consideration things like national holidays and local films, both of which can have a large impact on OW and final gross figures. Also, it allows good will to build and raise OWs in later territories (assuming the movie is well-received). The biggest negative is piracy in the internet age may play some role but this effect, while oft cited, is poorly quantified or understood; it may not make much difference for blockbusters.

I think piracy makes less difference for films where the experience of seeing it in the cinema is a big thing and significantly better than watching it at home.

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

I think piracy makes less difference for films where the experience of seeing it in the cinema is a big thing and significantly better than watching it at home.

There was an HD bootleg of Deadpool not too long after it was out in the theaters and that film still crushed it. So I guess it's really about quality. If your film is damn good folks don't mind shelling out their hard earned cash. If your movie sucks and an HD bootleg gets out early then that is usually a very bad combo.

 

[Sithborg]

So, whats better, opening all at once both domestically and worldwide, or spreading it out?

Spread out, so you can use PR games to keep things positive if things go poorly.

 

[InCali]

Only bootleg available is all in Spanish so I highly doubt it will have much of an effect on the DOM BO.

Voy a traducirlo para usted , pero no voy a verlo hasta Cinco de Mayo

It's more like "I would", but my Spanish kinda sucks; as would my translation.

So, dude, don't neglect the impact of the SoCal audience on the DOM BO #s or else I'm gonna have to send some of my boys to the swamp and rough you up. Know what I'm sayin' eh?

 

[InCali]

Just call him Captain D.C.R.D.I.W.A.G.F.J.H.B.H.M.

And then we'd all know what that meant....I mean, why use actual WORDS??

BTW, just watched CA:TFA and FYI loved it TBH....

 

[JB33]

And AoU opened in 59 markets prior to it's domestic opening and the only other big markets left to open at or later than the USA last year for it were China & Japan. So I'd say even with the exchange rate going against CW and all it being only 5% off AoU with far fewer markets it's opened in it looks solid to me that it will have a good shot at $1B foreign all by itself. I want this to kick the crap out of JW so bad right now. I'd like it to do likewise for SW:TFA but that's another $400-500m WW and a whole other ballgame. I'll be satisfied with beating JW.

Star Wars is in another league so that won't happen. Star Wars is the cinematic King.

 

[kedrell]

I don't think so. We'll see when Rogue One comes out but Star Wars a decade ago couldn't even beat LOTR or the HP series. And the MCU is way beyond those 2 in terms of box office numbers. Don't let one mega-successful movie give you the impression all the rest of them are going to do TFA business, young padawan. TFA had both a 10 year absence and returning characters from the original to boost it. They can only play that card once though and they did it already. Now what do they have? Nothing that'll keep them at that level, that's for sure. Yet the MCU is about to put out it 4th billion $ plus film in 4 years. Yeah Star Wars, get back to us when you have that kind of track record.

 

[Wildcard]

TFA was a freak of nature. Every SW film won't perform like it & I don't see any other film eclipsing what its done for quite some time. Especially in terms of grossing nearly a billion domestically alone.

But anyway, given the start CW is off to & how its international opening numbers are barely trailing behind AoU, I think this has every chance to do $1.3-$1.4 building. Everything is there: stellar reviews, a well sculpted movie (from what I can ascertain thus far without actually seeing it), massive hype met with everything a fanboy could love....

No way for CW to lose. It's already won.

 

[marshal99]

There will be repeated viewings of CW more than AOU because of that airport fight scenes so i would expect it to be closer to Avengers takings at the least.

 

[JB33]

I don't think so. We'll see when Rogue One comes out but Star Wars a decade ago couldn't even beat LOTR or the HP series. And the MCU is way beyond those 2 in terms of box office numbers. Don't let one mega-successful movie give you the impression all the rest of them are going to do TFA business, young padawan. TFA had both a 10 year absence and returning characters from the original to boost it. They can only play that card once though and they did it already. Now what do they have? Nothing that'll keep them at that level, that's for sure. Yet the MCU is about to put out it 4th billion $ plus film in 4 years. Yeah Star Wars, get back to us when you have that kind of track record.

I'm not just talking about The Force Awakens. I'm going all the way back to the original trilogy. You can't compare Star Wars to Marvel because the originals are much older films. Look at the all time highest grossing films adjusted for inflation. Star Wars is everywhere. A New Hope, The Force Awakens, The Empire Strikes Back, Return of the Jedi and The Phantom Menace are 2nd, 11th, 13th, 16th and 18th all time respectively. The Avengers is the highest Marvel film at 29th on the list. Then comes Revenge of the Sith at 63rd, and then Avengers: Age of Ultron is just inches ahead of Attack of the Clones after that (90th and 91st on the list).

There's a reason why people came out in droves for Episode VII. Star Wars is a cinematic tradition. Even Marvel doesn't reach every single demographic the way Star Wars does. This is coming from an enormous Marvel fan by the way.

 

[YJ1]

Well, the reason BvS opened in every market all at once and also the reason they embargoed the critics until very close to the release was because WB knew they had a dud so they marketed the crap out if it very effectively to make those OW numbers as high as possible since they knew once WOM kicked in of its actual quality it was going to go down fast which is exactly what happened.

As for the reasons one wants a staggered release, I think the main reason is for the legs of the film although I'm not totally sure. It does seem to me though that when you have a staggered release it builds hype up around all the [laces that are getting it a bit later since you have others in the world talking about how awesome it is.

I choose to ignore BvS as most people will come to do and focus on Daredevil VS Punisher on Netflix early in the year and Cap & company VS Team Iron Man here in this wonderful film. That's what EVERYONE will remember about 2016 and why the numbers on both will surpass predictions.

It is bad that over on the IMDB boards some nut keeps flooding it with threads linking the pirated crap. I report it as soon as I see it but there are some persistent idiots out there.