Civil War Captain America 3: Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[JC00]

It was marketed as an Iron Man vs Cap film when Cap was arguably the protagonist of the film. The equal billing was slightly misleading. I think it was like an hour into the film before we actually saw Stark as Iron Man. While the film kicked off with Cap.

Agreed. It does NOT feel like an Avengers movie when Cap is the only major active superhero figure for half of the film. It's very much Captain America And His Amazing Friends. As such, despite my initially high predictions for this movie, after seeing it, I can definitely see it going sub-AOU due to the lack of focus on non-Cap characters and less spectacle-driven action/more character-driven drama.

"Captain America: Civil War"

 

[JB33]

Update from Gitesh Pandya:

Gitesh Pandya ‏@GiteshPandya 21m21 minutes ago
Source tells me #CaptainAmericaCivilWar on track to drop about 20% today to $60M range. Wknd still likely near $180M. #5 all-time.

 

[Bats123]

I have a feeling it might do more than that, i wanna say 190-195.

 

[StormC]

"Captain America: Civil War"

Obviously. I was emphasizing that point and that even without being named Captain America, it plays out in a way where it is unmistakably a Captain America movie and not an Avengers movie.

 

[Serpico Jones]

I thought it would pull in numbers similar to Jurassic World, it's a little disappointing that it couldn't crack $200m.

 

[Iceman]

Jurassic World came out of nowhere. I wonder how the sequel will do. I hope Cap can get over $500m. Don't see why it wouldn't if word of mouth is as expected.

 

[R_Hythlodeus]

I have a feeling it might do more than that, i wanna say 190-195.

I doubt that. Don't forget that the GA has very recently seen a movie with a very similar theme that, how can I write that as politely as possible, was an exemplar of 'How to do a soulless movie that alienates the audience'. And for the GA, they don't care that much if it is DC or Marvel, WB or Fox or MS or Sony. It was a superhero movie. A superhero movie that potentially damaged the interest for other superhero movies.
And that's why it is important that other companies step up their game. One bad movie is enough to get the whole genre into trouble

 

[parkerpete]

That would be a real shame. I think the action is every bit as good as the two Avengers films (better than AoU IMO) and the story is better written. It may not be on the same scale as Avengers but you don't need it. Hopefully the WOM will help the movie to make Avengers like numbers at the box office.

I'd say the action high points beat anything I've ever seen outside of 'Fury Road'. It's so much better than AoU it isn't even funny. That airport scene is going to result in so many repeat viewings, even for people who don't prefer it to Avengers or WS.

 

[Wildcard]

I have a feeling it might do more than that, i wanna say 190-195.

$190 million is probably as high as it would go, but I think it'll fall around $185 million.

Still an exceptional opening, no doubt.

 

[Maximum_Maximus]

I doubt that. Don't forget that the GA has very recently seen a movie with a very similar theme that, how can I write that as politely as possible, was an exemplar of 'How to do a soulless movie that alienates the audience'. And for the GA, they don't care that much if it is DC or Marvel, WB or Fox or MS or Sony. It was a superhero movie. A superhero movie that potentially damaged the interest for other superhero movies.
And that's why it is important that other companies step up their game. One bad movie is enough to get the whole genre into trouble

You have a point. BVS may have turned general audience off about superhero movies so they are now more hesitant to give CW a chance until they get positive WOM. We'll see next week how good those WOM translates into. I wish CW came out first it may have made over $200 mil.

 

[Tymminator]

I think it's too early to worry really, IMO.

Let's just wait till we see the 2nd weekend drop before anyone panics, eh?

 

[Serpico Jones]

I don't think BvS was an issue with this, if anything I think it was Age of Ultron being something of a disappointment that may have turned some people off.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

I don't think BvS was an issue with this, if anything I think it was Age of Ultron being something of a disappointment that may have turned some people off.

I think Age of Ultron was only a disappointment to some of the CBM fan community. To the general audience I don't think it was disappointing at all.

 

[StormC]

Yeah, 1.4 billion is too massive of a take in for a movie that was deemed disappointing. You don't get that number without repeat viewings.

1.2B is still the floor for CW IMO. 1.3B would be nice to beat IM3.

 

[hitmanyr2k]

Yeah, 1.4 billion is too massive of a take in for a movie that was deemed disappointing. You don't get that number without repeat viewings.

1.2B is still the floor for CW IMO. 1.3B would be nice to beat IM3.

Exactly, not only that but its user ratings still remain high.

 

[RLAAMJR.]

This movie could have done better in the Box Office if only they also gave us Spider-man posters. Look at BvS, they also heavily featured Wonder Woman on there promotions. If this movie heavily promoted Spider-man, this movie would have sold better.

 

[KangConquers]

I don't know why people here keep setting themselves up for disappointments?

First AoU and now CW. I never expected this to do over 200 million and I thought 180 was where it would land.

A1 was lighting in a bottle but I know there are going to be a bunch of 250 million OW predictions for IW.

I actually fully believe Infinity War 2 will beat A1, in the tradition of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. It's a big finale of sorts, might be Downey's last, and will feature the Avengers, and the Guardians of the Galaxy under the same roof.

I see IW Part 2 being the only Marvel movie that will ever break $600 M domestic in the near future, and will also be the first (Only?) One to do $1 B foreign.

 

[Johnny-Oh]

This movie could have done better in the Box Office if only they also gave us Spider-man posters. Look at BvS, they also heavily featured Wonder Woman on there promotions. If this movie heavily promoted Spider-man, this movie would have sold better.

That would have been misleading which could have made things worse.

 

[spiderman2]

I actually fully believe Infinity War 2 will beat A1, in the tradition of Harry Potter and the Deathly Hallows Part 2. It's a big finale of sorts, might be Downey's last, and will feature the Avengers, and the Guardians of the Galaxy under the same roof.

I see IW Part 2 being the only Marvel movie that will ever break $600 M domestic in the near future, and will also be the first (Only?) One to do $1 B foreign.

I think this movie may beable to make 1 billion OS. AOU made about 946 OS and with this getting better reception it should have better legs.

 

[Webfoot Hero]

That would have been misleading which could have made things worse.

Spoiler

Agreed. He had a his quick recruitment scene in Queens, the fight in Germany, and then he was gone just as fast. They were right to focus on the heroes they did put on the posters. Hyping him up anymore would have definitely left people disappointed.

 

[KangConquers]

That would have been misleading which could have made things worse.

I think this movie may beable to make 1 billion OS. AOU made about 946 OS and with this getting better reception it should have better legs.

I've never been able to really establish a huge correlation between legs and quality in foreign territories. I'm seeing $850-900 M Foreign, $450-500 M domestic right now.

 

[Wildcard]

I certainly think CW could break into the $400 million range domestically or come close, but $500 million? I don't see it.

And BvS has absolutely no effect on what CW was gonna do. General audiences probably don't care at all. They saw BvS & if they disliked it, they just disliked it and have moved on. It's not like people are going "OMG! teh superhero genre iz crashing!"

One movie does not dictate the future fate of all films of the same genre and nothing DC does will ever affect Disney & Marvel. Whether DC soars high or crashes and burns, Marvel's films will continue to succeed if they keep following their own formula.

In this case, I just think some people got too lofty in their predictions in thinking this would play out 100% like an Avengers film. It doesn't have to in order to be successful. So what if it doesn't have a $200+ million domestic OW? It's numbers are still phenomenal.

 

[Mysteryman]

That would have been misleading which could have madde things worse.

I agree.
If you promote Spider_Man too much, than people will think that he is in it more than he actually is.

 

[Ozbridge]

Disney’s Spoils Of ‘Civil War’: $60M+ Saturday As ‘Captain America’ Heads To $180M-$183M – Late Night B.O.

On ComScore’s PostTrak, which continually polls moviegoers throughout the weekend, Civil War has moved up to a total positive score of 88% and a 75% definite recommend to friends. That’s a tad under Ultron‘s 90% positive and 79% recommend, which isn’t a bad place to be.

https://deadline.com/2016/05/captain-america-civil-war-opening-weekend-box-office-summer-records-1201750394/

 

[grieven]

Another estimate in the $183 million range. Not bad. I too had hoped to get into the $190s and hopefully break $200 million, but it's still really great at #5 all-time and more than double TWS.

http://pro.boxoffice.com/thursday-night-report-captain-america-civil-war-launches-25m/


# TITLE WEEKEND LOCATIONS AVG. TOTAL WKS. DIST.
1 Captain America: Civil War $182,500,000 — 4,226 — $43,185 $182,500,000 1 Disney
2 The Jungle Book (2016) $18,300,000 -58% 4,144 103 $4,416 $281,412,265 4 Disney
3 Mother’s Day (2016) $7,500,000 -10% 3,141 106 $2,388 $19,219,690 2 Open Road
4 The Huntsman: Winter’s War $3,300,000 -66% 2,901 -901 $1,138 $40,083,620 3 Universal
5 Keanu $2,900,000 -69% 2,681 23 $1,082 $14,920,937 2 Warner Bros. / New Line
6 Zootopia $2,700,000 -49% 2,077 -410 $1,300 $327,647,990 10 Disney