The Winter Soldier Captain America: The Winter Soldier Box Office Prediction Thread - Part 1

[TalismanRing]

They should've used Dr. Zola in the comics instead.

They just used him in Dimension Z. He'll be back though, he always is.

 

[dalonewolf]

You do know there's a Gem movie coming out right? You will lose man points wearing that thing in public but I'm sure the trannies will love it.

It's a collection damn what everybody else says and plus it's a bad ass tee

 

[DJ_KiDDvIcIOUs]

They should've used Dr. Zola in the comics instead.

Well they did keep it tied to shield and a super-helicarrier that nobody knew about so I will give them that. But this Dr. Mindbubble guy is laughable. He is an original character that is just beyond stupid IMO. At east they have a new Defenders series that has both Cap and TWS in it

 

[Raiden]

They just used him in Dimension Z. He'll be back though, he always is.

A missed opportunity not to tie it to TWS.

 

[Raiden]

I think TWS can definitely beat MOS and cross 700 mil WW now.

 

[Spider-Fan]

Great to see Cap again doing so well! Now that Thor 2 and IM2 have fallen to Cap 2, now the target becomes Man of Steel's $668,045,518 WW take

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

It's locked to beat MOS.

700 m is looking good.

 

[Minxie]

I just noticed that theaters in my area have re-added Cap 2 to their IMAX screens. I think they were legally required to give those screens to Transcendence for 2 weeks but now they've given them back to Cap.

Altho of course I figure they're gonna be given to TASM 2 next weekend.

 

[speno94]

TWS currently stands at $645.2 Worldwide, so these are the comic book films that Cap 2 has to beat Box Office wise:

Man of Steel $668.0
The Amazing Spider-Man $752.2
Spider-Man 2 $783.8
Spider-Man $821.7
Spider-Man 3 $890.9
The Dark Knight $1,004.6
The Dark Knight Rises $1,084.4
Iron Man 3 $1,215.4
Marvel's The Avengers $1,518.6

I definitely think it will beat Man of Steel, but I think in the end, Cap 2 will probably match either The Amazing Spider-Man or Spider-Man 2 around that mark.

 

[Docker2.0]

It's a collection damn what everybody else says and plus it's a bad ass tee

There is nothing bad ass about Gem. NOTHING!!!!!

It's locked to beat MOS.

700 m is looking good.

I hope you are right. If it does, then there is a chance it doubles the originals Box office. Plus I hope it does because I really want WB to move that date. It really makes no sense for them to play this cat and mouse game.

 

[The Endless]

It's strange that SM2 didn't gross as much as the first one. Quite an anomaly. Critically and audience acclaimed first movie, critically and audience acclaimed sequel... that grosses less? Bizarre.

 

[kedrell]

^I always figured that was due to backlash from the first film, which IMO just barely dodged being a bad movie by a hair. It was a 6/10 film for me.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Every franchise has a peak gross-wise.

The Spider-man franchise peaked early.

The first movie was a pop culture phenomenon. No way was a follow up going to out-gross it.

 

[kedrell]

^This is true, which is why I never expected TDKR to outgross TDK domestic and why I don't expect AoU to do Avengers1 numbers domestic(I think TA2 will do something in the high $500M's DOM). But WW it sure can increase.

But I still maintain that the first Spidey film was such a phenomenon largely in spite of it's quality, much like the Transformers first movie was as well. These films just clicked with large numbers of people and much criticism wasn't factored in.

 

[TalismanRing]

Captain America: The Winter Soldier added $16 million to its overseas total in its fifth weekend across 55 territories. The film has already passed the overseas totals of Captain America ($194M), Iron Man ($267M), Thor ($268M) and Iron Man 2 ($312M).



The Captain America sequel is already 117% ahead of the first installment’s $194 million lifetime overseas run.


The Cap sequel is up to $420 million overseas and $645.2 million globally. The global cume is 74% ahead of its predecessor’s and had already eclipsed Iron Man 2’s $624 million.


The Winter Soldier is the second highest grossing Disney film of all time in China, where it has earned $107.6 million. Other top markets include the UK ($30.2M), South Korea ($29.3M), Mexico ($24.4M), and Brazil ($21.3M).


http://www.boxoffice.com/news/2014-...th-american-debut-rio-2-reaches-250m-overseas




Gitesh Pandya ‏@giteshpandyahttps://***********/giteshpandya/status/460465295896104960
#WinterSoldier on track to break $700M global & finish just below TASM1's $754M. Amazing for non-Spidey film in spring.

 

[kedrell]

Oh, and with this weekend's WW box office, Cap now joins Superman, Batman, Spider-man, Iron Man, Thor, Avengers and the X-Men as a billion dollar franchise with a total of $1.0158 billion WW between the 2 films.

 

[TalismanRing]

Thor: The Dark World added $12.2 million for a new total of $404 million.
http://www.boxoffice...?id=3758&p=.htm

So TDW made $34.4m more O/S after pacing about 24% behind CA2's w/e. If CA2 has the same drops then it would be on pace to make $42.66m and finish with $462.96m

Edit: I forgot TDW had a late opening in Japan which gave it a whopping $6m. But even if we deduct that entire total (even though CA2 just opened there last w/e and this week is a holiday), $450+m O/S looks good.

 

[The Endless]

^I always figured that was due to backlash from the first film, which IMO just barely dodged being a bad movie by a hair. It was a 6/10 film for me.

Backlash of the first film? What backlash? It was immensely popular both critically and with audiences. It was a pop culture phenomenon comparable with Batman 89.

 

[The Endless]

Every franchise has a peak gross-wise.

The Spider-man franchise peaked early.

The first movie was a pop culture phenomenon. No way was a follow up going to out-gross it.

But the worst film of the trilogy outgrossed both of them.

Again, bizarre.

 

[TalismanRing]

Spiderman was not only well reviewed it was also a phenomenon. When a film gets like that it pulls in a lot of casual viewers who want to see what the fuss is all about. Traditionally not all of these kinds of viewers come back even for even more critically acclaimed sequels. The U.S. and global drop-off between #1 and #2 wasn't that much - it's far less than between Star Wars & The Empire Strikes back.

The superior critical acclaim of #2 then lead to the far bigger opening for #3 but WOM hurt it in the U.S. so it finished lower than both. Overseas markets exploded from 2002 to 2007 which explains why it performed so much better there than the first 2 even though the first probably sold more tickets.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=spiderman.htm

You can see that in terms of tickets sold ASM sold about 1/2 in the U.S. as the first Spiderman did. Enormously expanding WW markets and inflation though keeps it near in WW grosses.

 

[Ms. Marvel]

$700 million is looking REALLY good right now. This is amazing.

I think I predicted this could happen if the movie turned out to be phenomenal. So glad that it was the case!

 

[kedrell]

Backlash of the first film? What backlash? It was immensely popular both critically and with audiences. It was a pop culture phenomenon comparable with Batman 89.

Just look at it's audience rating on RT compared to other films in the genre that had similarly high RT%'s over all. It's at 67% and a 3.3/5 which is quite mediocre. No wonder less people showed up for the sequel.

 

[kedrell]

Spiderman was not only well reviewed it was also a phenomenon. When a film gets like that it pulls in a lot of casual viewers who want to see what the fuss is all about. Traditionally not all of these kinds of viewers come back even for even more critically acclaimed sequels. The U.S. and global drop-off between #1 and #2 wasn't that much - it's far less than between Star Wars & The Empire Strikes back.

The superior critical acclaim of #2 then lead to the far bigger opening for #3 but WOM hurt it in the U.S. so it finished lower than both. Overseas markets exploded from 2002 to 2007 which explains why it performed so much better there than the first 2 even though the first probably sold more tickets.

http://www.boxofficemojo.com/franchises/chart/?id=spiderman.htm

You can see that in terms of tickets sold ASM sold about 1/2 in the U.S. as the first Spiderman did. Enormously expanding WW markets and inflation though keeps it near in WW grosses.

I really don't think it's comparable to Star Wars due to them being from widely different era's.

I think the first Spidey film had critical acclaim to be sure but it didn't age so well and even just 2 years later that effect was felt in lower grosses even though most said the movie was even better.

 

[TalismanRing]

Just look at it's audience rating on RT compared to other films in the genre that had similarly high RT%'s over all. It's at 67% and a 3.3/5 which is quite mediocre. No wonder less people showed up for the sequel.

Most of that was compiled way after the fact and I wouldn't be surprised if there was some ballot stuffing by disgruntled fans of other franchises or even the latest ASM franchise. RT, Flixster, IMDB aren't exactly reflective of the mainstream public - most of whom never rate a film online.

Movies don't open at $114.8m and finish over $400m with mediocre audience reaction.

Mediocre audience reaction is opening at over $150m and finishing at $336m like Spiderman 3.


EDIT: yes there is definite rating stuffing at RT for Spiderman to bring the rating down. It has over 34m ratings! Spider-Man 2 has 1.1m, The Dark Knight has about 1.7m. and The Avengers 1m. Not exactly subtle.

 

[kedrell]

I wasn't saying the audience reaction was mediocre when it was in theaters. That came later.

And I really don't know what to make of the wide disparity in the number of user ratings since I can find none of the other superhero films with anywhere near SM1's number. But if it's ballot stuffing then why does it only notable with this one movie? Fanboys try their ballot stuffing tricks(for AND against) on just about every superhero film. So why the extra special attention on this one?