Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 1

[Marvel]

I was surprised that my local cinema had no crowds at all today. Other Memorial Day's usually have way bigger turn outs. Not just this film but the parking lot was empty.

The weather was great and, it may be just silly conjecture but, after such a harsh winter I got the feeling that people just wanted to be outside doing anything. So, in a round about way I'm blaming that awful winter for lower holiday numbers.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Well, I am glad I kept my thread vote here conservative at $500 million since I believe now that's where this is gonna end up. But who knows? I'm still hoping for $700M and up!

I'd say $600m is a lock. $700m is definitely in sight. In the end TWS, DoFP and TASM2 should all end up between $700m-$750m. On the sliding scale, TWS would be the biggest success, followed by DoFP.

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

I am worried about Maleficent. They are promoting the hell out of it. Yet, there are absolutely no reviews anywhere for it? Is Disney scared?

 

[Lightning Strykez!]

You want legs, then the film makers are going to have to start gearing these movies with young women and teen girls as the audience in mind, because most movies with legs, have something for that demographic. It don't take much, just a couple of cute hot guys showing off their chests is all that will be needed. Unfortunately, Wolvie just isn't enough anymore. I'd say they might want to consider sexing up Fassbender and McAvoy a bit more in the next movie to get some extra legs for the franchise.

I think it's pretty clear that they're already thinking along those lines for X-Men: Apocalypse. That's why Mr. "McHottie Stripper" Channing Tatum is coming into the picture as a major character.

 

[Iceman]

I was surprised that my local cinema had no crowds at all today. Other Memorial Day's usually have way bigger turn outs. Not just this film but the parking lot was empty.

The weather was great and, it may be just silly conjecture but, after such a harsh winter I got the feeling that people just wanted to be outside doing anything. So, in a round about way I'm blaming that awful winter for lower holiday numbers.

Haha, well there is some logic there. We'll see the dividends eventually if the films keep this quality. Seeing it overseas already, although you don't need quality to go big there anyway. t:

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I am worried about Maleficent. They are promoting the hell out of it. Yet, there are absolutely no reviews anywhere for it? Is Disney scared?

Most production companies like to have a set embargo date, as they don't like there to be seen that is a difference. Great movie, bad movie, same date. I believe Maleficent's ends tomorrow. There have been plenty of screenings, so they haven't been afraid of showing the film. Also general response so far has been quite positive.

 

[Tony Stark]

Frozen has been the best piece of good news for Disney proper in a long time, but that was an animated film. I'm sure they are heavily invested in hopes for Maleficent, because it has been a long, long time since they've had a live action winner, that they have produced.

 

[Marvel]

Frozen has been the best piece of good news for Disney proper in a long time, but that was an animated film. I'm sure they are heavily invested in hopes for Maleficent, because it has been a long, long time since they've had a live action winner, that they have produced.

Yet Alice In Wonderland made a billion dollars the last time they went live action with a cartoon like this.

 

[danagirl42]

Frozen has been the best piece of good news for Disney proper in a long time, but that was an animated film. I'm sure they are heavily invested in hopes for Maleficent, because it has been a long, long time since they've had a live action winner, that they have produced.

That is true after the disaster of John Carter. I tried to watch the movie and I was bored even though I like Mark Strong a lot. When the dog is the most interesting part of a movie, you are in trouble in unless the movie is about Lassie or Benji.

Disney is already starting the marketing for Cinderella, which does not come out until next year.

 

[mmaeric]

Well, I am glad I kept my thread vote here conservative at $500 million since I believe now that's where this is gonna end up. But who knows? I'm still hoping for $700M and up!

So, the movie opens to 291 million in three days and you think it will end up at 5oo?

Captain America had a near identical opening and they're over 700

 

[DACrowe]

Guess what, it's a superhero movie. There are going to be villains, it's kind of a package deal. Basically painting conservatives, one side of the political spectrum, as the villains would have been just as cliché and pissed off a lot of people. That's been done before as well.

So...they did that, but turned them into cartoons, so as to not piss anyone off?

That is why I think its subtext is not that deep.

 

[danagirl42]

Yet Alice In Wonderland made a billion dollars the last time they went live action with a cartoon like this.

I forgot about Alice. But that just shows how the brain tries to protect itself. That scene at the end with Depp dancing was one of the worst things in cinematic history and Lewis Carroll had probably just now stopped spinning in his grave.

 

[Loganbabe]

Seeing it overseas already, although you don't need quality to go big there anyway. t:

What do you mean?

 

[Justice4#Rouge]

I believe the reason there is no IMAX is because Godzilla has that deal on lock, until Malifecent.

 

[Iceman]

What do you mean?

Overseas markets don't seem to care about quality when it comes to franchise sequels. Even when they get panned and their US audience starts declining they manage to keep getting bigger there like Pirates 4 & Transformers 3.

 

[Loganbabe]

Overseas markets don't seem to care about quality when it comes to franchise sequels. Even when they get panned and their US audience starts declining they manage to keep getting bigger there like Pirates 4 & Transformers 3.

Maybe, but this is too much of a generalization. I live in an oversea market and the quality of a film is the most important thing to me - especially the quality of the actors, and a good script. But I think that in huge markets like India and China, people have this lifelong tradition of going to the movies. So bad films from bad franchises will end up getting good numbers, but good films like XMDOFP will too

 

[Iceman]

Maybe, but this is too much of a generalization. I live in an oversea market and the quality of a film is the most important thing to me - especially the quality of the actors, and a good script. But I think that in huge markets like India and China, people have this lifelong tradition of going to the movies. So bad films from bad franchises will end up getting good numbers, but good films like XMDOFP will too

It's not meant as a generalisation or criticism (I'm from the UK and that is just as much an overseas territory as any other). Just a view on the sum of overseas numbers for franchises sequels in recent years. Unlike a decade ago where Europe was a much bigger percentage of the overseas number, a lot of the countries whose cinema infrastructure is growing fastest and now contribute a large portion to the number are those where English hasn't always been as widespread and it's not surprising that action films translate better than many other types of film there. It also seems to take a while for franchise momentum to really get going relative to the US but once the momentum is there, there's no stopping it. Don't worry, I'm definitely not putting DOFP along with the likes of Pirates 4. t:

 

[psylockolussus]

$300 million in 4 days! Amazing!

In 2 weeks, that will be doubled, so in my opinion, $600 million is a lock!

 

[Iceman]

Yeah, definitely. Should do a fair bit more. $600m is only a x2 multiplier and this should have great word of mouth.

 

[psylockolussus]

I predicted $700 million but as far as I'm concerned anything over $550 million is already a success. Despite the $200 million budget, this will be the 1st X-Men movie to cross the 500 million mark and possibly the 600 million mark and not only that, this movie didn't have a big lead in movie like Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Captain America 2 and those two just appeared two years ago in a film that earned more than 700 million worldwide.

FC only earned more or less 360 million and The Wolverine earned less than X3's worldwide gross. So going from 415million to 600million+ worldwide then 130million to 200million+ is already a win. And Fox already reserved the dates for the next 3 films. So there's nothing to worry about.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

The international numbers really do help a lot of these films look good. The percentages aren't nearly as good, but the numbers look good.

I predicted $700 million but as far as I'm concerned anything over $550 million is already a success. Despite the $200 million budget, this will be the 1st X-Men movie to cross the 500 million mark and possibly the 600 million mark and not only that, this movie didn't have a big lead in movie like Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Captain America 2 and those two just appeared two years ago in a film that earned more than 700 million worldwide.

FC only earned more or less 360 million and The Wolverine earned less than X3's worldwide gross. So going from 415million to 600million+ worldwide then 130million to 200million+ is already a win. And Fox already reserved the dates for the next 3 films. So there's nothing to worry about.

Anything over $550m isn't really a success. $700m would be a fine number. But considering the production cost, it isn't great. Also domestically, it is actually behind X2, Origins and the Last Stand in terms of tickets. 3D and inflation for the win!

 

[Cooty_Cat]

700 mil is a great number. I hate when everyone becomes an accountent and speculate what a studio considers a success. TASM2 was a success and DOFP will be a success. I feel like people expect any movie that isn't a Marvel Studios production to do a billion dollars or bust.

and I'm the biggest Marvelite on this website!

 

[DarthSkywalker]

700 mil is a great number. I hate when everyone becomes an accountent and speculate what a studio considers a success. TASM2 was a success and DOFP will be a success. I feel like people expect any movie that isn't a Marvel Studios production to do a billion dollars or bust.

and I'm the biggest Marvelite on this website!

I hate when people ignore the numbers. $200m dollar films are the gold standard, and are thus held to a higher standard as they must be financially. It is why MOS, as much as I love it, isn't getting a conventional sequel. Domestic return is the biggest barometer for success, unless a film is amassing over $800m. If it is doing that, then well $200m domestically isn't that big a problem.

If DoFP made $600m, that would be a problem. But considering it will go well north of that, it will be a solid success. Not great, but definitely solid. If DoFP made $700m, and $300m of that was domestic, that would be very good.

 

[psylockolussus]

Anything over $550m isn't really a success. $700m would be a fine number. But considering the production cost, it isn't great. Also domestically, it is actually behind X2, Origins and the Last Stand in terms of tickets. 3D and inflation for the win!

X3 earned less than $550M and it had a budget of $210M and so are you saying FOX viewed that as failure?

Sure $550 M is not that great but that can still be seen as a success.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

X3 earned less than $550M and it had a budget of $210M and so are you saying FOX viewed that as failure?

Sure $550 M is not that great but that can still be seen as a success.

Yes. The Last Stand started fast, and fell off a cliff. There is no way they made money on it. We aren't even taking into account distribution cost and international licensing, etc.

Studios don't spend money like that to make $550m. They aren't trying to ride the wave of past X-Men efforts, they are trying to jump on the Avengers event train, just like Sony are with Spidey. If this movie made $550m, it would have been a disaster.