Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 1

[Tony Stark]

Expectations based on other Memorial Day releases. Most of them had >60% drops.

Considering it's following very close to what FF6 did, -60% is pretty much expected at this point.

 

[Snikt]

Considering it's following very close to what FF6 did, -60% is pretty much expected at this point.

I'll say this, DOFP has a better critical and audience rating than FF6. So there's hope .

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Critical ratings doesn't mean a damn thing if the audience isn't feeling a movie. Godzilla has a 73% on Rotten Tomatoes and dropped an embarrassing 67% on a holiday weekend.

 

[Serpico Jones]

Critical ratings doesn't mean a damn thing if the audience isn't feeling a movie. Godzilla has a 73% on Rotten Tomatoes and dropped an embarrassing 67% on a holiday weekend.

Yep.

 

[Bruce Malone]

Critical ratings doesn't mean a damn thing if the audience isn't feeling a movie. Godzilla has a 73% on Rotten Tomatoes and dropped an embarrassing 67% on a holiday weekend.

I think DOFP's word of mouth is much much better though.

There seems to be a lot of fan disappointment over Godzilla. I had a friend personally dissuade me from seeing it over how disappointed he says he was in it.

 

[MarvelU]

Critical ratings doesn't mean a damn thing if the audience isn't feeling a movie. Godzilla has a 73% on Rotten Tomatoes and dropped an embarrassing 67% on a holiday weekend.

Yeah plus it had a B cinema score, which is weird for movies with die hard fans.

Also I know this is the Box Office Thread, but maleficent is getting Mixed reviews right now with a 58% score. Too early to tell but I don't think critical ratings matter for these type of movies geared for younger audiences either way.

 

[Liam_H]

Expectations based on what though? the past x-men films?

I've never heard anybody project a 60%+ second week drop as a good thing?

Both First Class and the Wolverine held above 60% in their second week. It's only TLS and Origins that had the big 60%+ drops among the x-men films.

Godzilla dropped 66% and that's been considered very disappointing and probably would have killed hopes for a sequel had it not opened so big in the first place.

Memorial Weekends inflate numbers a bit so a movie dropping within this range is expected. Compare it to movies such as FF6, Pirates 3, and TLS.

Now the one thing DOFP has going for it is that its much better received the the latter two, FF6 is debatable. So hopefully that leads to a better drop than usual which would be 55-60%. But if it sticks in the typical 60-65% range then its just expected.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

My point is just because the critics adore this film doesn't mean thee audience will. I do think the audience likes DOFP but that doesn't mean they like it as much as the critics do. I am rooting for a good drop because I enjoyed the film. Honestly with those kinds of reviews DOFP have it really shouldn't have a worst second weekend drop than Winter Soldier had, even with the competition. I think it will have a worst drop, although I do wish it well.

It needs a good Wednesday drop to not drop over 60% this weekend.

As for Maleficent, it looks like another Snow White and the Huntsman style performer to me. The mixed reviews are not surprising to me. It's still early though so who knows where it will end exactly.

 

[Snikt]

My point is just because the critics adore this film doesn't mean thee audience will. I do think the audience likes DOFP but that doesn't mean they like it as much as the critics do. I am rooting for a good drop because I enjoyed the film. Honestly with those kinds of reviews DOFP have it really shouldn't have a worst second weekend drop than Winter Soldier had, even with the competition. I think it will have a worst drop, although I do wish it well.

It needs a good Wednesday drop to not drop over 60% this weekend.

As for Maleficent, it looks like another Snow White and the Huntsman style performer to me. The mixed reviews are not surprising to me. It's still early though so who knows where it will end exactly.

For sure critical ratings don't always matter. But the audience rating is also extremely high for DOFP...so there's hope.

 

[Mikelus]

My point is just because the critics adore this film doesn't mean thee audience will. I do think the audience likes DOFP but that doesn't mean they like it as much as the critics do. I am rooting for a good drop because I enjoyed the film. Honestly with those kinds of reviews DOFP have it really shouldn't have a worst second weekend drop than Winter Soldier had, even with the competition. I think it will have a worst drop, although I do wish it well.

Is not only critics, the audience rating is 95%, with an average rating of 4.5/5 (both higher than Cap 2): http://www.rottentomatoes.com/m/x_men_days_of_future_past/

Cap 2 had no real competition, DOFP will have a tougher time at the BO.

 

[Iceman]

Tuesday Actuals: 8.2 Million

A little lower than X3 8 year later adjusted number of 10.8
million.

But not a debacle, anything under 6 million would have been.

Not the bump we wanted. Word of mouth?

Still 12 million behind X3 and that was 8 years ago........

Get your butts in the seat people and spread the word. It has to be better or we are going to a a 160 million dollar Apocalypse film.

Doesn't make sense to adjust in this case as the target for DOFP is going to be way below X3 adjusted. So this figure being above X3's same Tuesday is a good sign of it converging to a similar end figure to X3, given X3's opening weekend headstart.

 

[marvelrobbins]

Worldwide DOFP has outgrossed the first X-Men.

It's already the third highest grossing X-Men film overseas after the wolverine
and The Last Stand

And all this Is after only 5 Days.

 

[wz21]

I've seen you slandering Fan quite a few times and I'm kind of curious what about her upsets you so much. She did an awesome job as Blink, had such presence in very limited screen time.
From what I've looked up, movies involving Fan in the past 5 years all got amazingly high (some of which record-breaking) box offices in China. According to The Hollywood Reporter, DoFP took a muscular $39.35 million in its first three days in China (biggest open of the year), "boosted by the movie's Chinese star Fan Bingbing and a well-received visit by key cast". I just don't buy it that "most Chinese moviegoers" would avoid her movies.

I don't slanderher just tell you the truth.she is famous in China,but not have a public praise.Many Chinese just feel strange in her performance in IM3 last years

I have to say famous China actors/ actress in the movie is important to Chinese government and leaders.Because they want to feel that China is a superpower in the international media just like Soviet Union in the past.If a movie have Chinese actors.It will have more possiblities to enter Chinese market,have better release date in China,and more adversitment and media attention in China(because they are all controlled by Chinese government)
The IM3,XMAN get high gross in China just because they got better release date (the same time in America,so priate won't hurt it.)and good word of mouth in China

 

[psylockolussus]

From BoxOfficeGuru editor's twitter:

Awesome!

So by the 10th day, it will probably outgrossed X1/FC/TW!

And yay to 340 million plus worldwide in 5 days!t:

I wish people would stop comparing this to X-Men: The Last Stand.

It was 8 years ago when the franchise was at it's commercial peak. Not to mention the superhero genre was in a very different place.

This movie is doing amazingly well, in my opinion. And after all... It looks like this one might actually have LEGS!!! An undeniable first for the franchise.

Yeah and its not like the last X-Men movie that was released before DOFP is TLS. Origins: Wolverine, First Class, The Wolverine -the spin-offs - all came and earned less money than TLS. DOFP will easily outgross those 3 films and thats the great thing.

 

[Blackout]

5.7 million Wednesday apparently. 30% drop. F6 did around the same number last year.

 

[psylockolussus]

Not bad!

 

[Tymminator]

F6 is proving to be a solid model to go by for DoFP so far.

 

[Manila Vanilla]

Worldwide gross at the moment is $340.7

 

[WC Avengers]

Second week International only took in 30 million?

191 million to 30 million? is that a typ0 or the biggest drop in history oversees? = 221 million

 

[danoyse]

Second week International only took in 30 million?

191 million to 30 million? is that a typ0 or the biggest drop in history oversees? = 221 million

Three days is not a week.

 

[hoy-small-fry]

Three days is not a week.

The man knows his calendar

 

[WC Avengers]

Three days is not a week.

Duh! wasn't thinking, its not even the second week yet. lol

 

[Blackout]

Second week International only took in 30 million?

191 million to 30 million? is that a typ0 or the biggest drop in history oversees? = 221 million

It's still the first "week" and the "week" hasn't even ended in some countries.

Current predictions I've seen put this at 310M to 325M overseas by Sunday.

 

[JP]

F6 is proving to be a solid model to go by for DoFP so far.

Pretty surprising, I must say.

 

[Iceman]

Hopefully the upcoming weekend is a good one. Might have to turn up to give it a boost.