Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 1

[WC Avengers]

please remember people that when you see a GAWDY 70 million for Maleficent that will include IMAX.

the 32 million projected for Xmen is without. Cap2 had Imax as well.


IMAX is a big deal FOX - get with the program

so the Xmen numbers folks are aren't all that bad

IMAX usually adds atleast 15 - 20% to an opening total

 

[Blackout]

I wonder if Apocalypse will be released in IMAX, or are all the slots already booked up?

 

[Tymminator]

DOFP isn't suppose to have as great a jump over the weekend as Cap2 so in the end it'll balance itself out.

Yup.
School is out in a lot of places, so comparing Cap to DoFP is apples and oranges. DoFP is going to have higher weekdays, Cap should make up for it on weekends.

I think there is more than a good chance that there will be a photo finish between the two movies, so when everything is said and done they should be spitting distance from each other. This makes me happy as I'm a fan of both films and am glad both are doing well.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Looking at the Wednesday number, I definitely think it's dropping 60+% this weekend.

 

[JP]

While I'm sure that's likely, what exactly is it about the Wednesday numbers that indicate such?

 

[Loganbabe]

They should move it up to the first week of April... that whole month is vacant right now.

Could work. No competition for weeks.
Somehow the whole holiday slot doesn't seem to be working as greatly as in a decade ago, when there were less big blockbusters.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

While I'm sure that's likely, what exactly is it about the Wednesday numbers that indicate such?

Because it's a slightly lower Wednesday than Fast and Furious 6. It's been running very similarly to Fast 6 and that film did 35.2mil in it's second weekend (a 63.9% drop). I expect 35-37mil for Days of Future Past which I guess means that a 59% drop is possible. So I'll revise a little and say that I'm expecting a 59-61% drop.

 

[josh8]

LOL following X-Men movie box office is too hard on my heart. After a great Tuesday, what the hell Wednesday?? Why aren't your cooperating??

I really thought we were about to see some good legs, but it's back to business as usual. Hope the weekend is good!

 

[JP]

Not really.. that's a pretty expected Wednesday. It held better than both Cap2 and Spidey2. Granted the former had good legs, and the latter hasn't.

 

[Tony Stark]

I'm pretty sure this will be over -60%. FF6 was facing After Earth and Now You See Me in it's second week. NYSM, was a modest hit and a pretty fun movie with a great cast. After Earth was one of the biggest bombs of 2013 (LR beat it out based on ridiculous budget but took in more money), and I think everyone got a sense it was going to bomb.

DOFP will be facing much tougher competition. While both films are receiving tepid critical response (I'm being kind in McFarlane's case), both films are going to bring in more money than AE and NYSM did. X-men films typically are front loaded due to more of a niche fan base compared to other films in the genre that have wider appeal.

I see this weekend as:

Maleficent - 55-60M
DOFP - 32-35M
AMWTDITW - 25-30M

 

[josh8]

Not really.. that's a pretty expected Wednesday. It held better than both Cap2 and Spidey2. Granted the former had good legs, and the latter hasn't.

I'm looking at the comparison chart for Wednesdays after Memorial day weekend and unfortunately it's pretty high percentage drop. I'm not forecasting doom and gloom.. it's just a setback after a great few days of nice percentage drops.

 

[danoyse]

I'm pretty sure this will be over -60%. FF6 was facing After Earth and Now You See Me in it's second week. NYSM, was a modest hit and a pretty fun movie with a great cast. After Earth was one of the biggest bombs of 2013 (LR beat it out based on ridiculous budget but took in more money), and I think everyone got a sense it was going to bomb.

DOFP will be facing much tougher competition. While both films are receiving tepid critical response (I'm being kind in McFarlane's case), both films are going to bring in more money than AE and NYSM did. X-men films typically are front loaded due to more of a niche fan base compared to other films in the genre that have wider appeal.

I see this weekend as:

Maleficent - 55-60M
DOFP - 32-35M
AMWTDITW - 25-30M

And it's a *major disappointment*, right?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Not really.. that's a pretty expected Wednesday. It held better than both Cap2 and Spidey2. Granted the former had good legs, and the latter hasn't.

How is Cap 2 and Spidey 2 a better comparison than Fast and Furious 6?

 

[JP]

I'm looking at the comparison chart for Wednesdays after Memorial day weekend and unfortunately it's pretty high percentage drop. I'm not forecasting doom and gloom.. it's just a setback after a great few days of nice percentage drops.

Not quite. It's in the same ballpark as the other films, only those films dropped closer to 70% on Tuesday, while we only dropped 58%... If anything, it's evening out.

 

[josh8]

Not really.. that's a pretty expected Wednesday. It held better than both Cap2 and Spidey2. Granted the former had good legs, and the latter hasn't.

Also, it's not an adequate comparison with Cap2 since that movie was not out in the summer like now when kids are out of school. The summer months have higher weekday grosses due to kids being out, but then bigger drops on the weekends because the rush is not as strong as a movie gets older.

 

[JP]

I thought kids were out of school mid June? Unless you're talking about college students.

 

[Blackout]

I've read Tuesdays are stronger nowadays too due to discounts. Hence, you can see why Tues-Wed drops are bigger than they are in previous years.

 

[JP]

I've read Tuesdays are stronger nowadays too due to discounts. Hence, you can see why Tues-Wed drops are bigger than they are in previous years.

Yup, look at any film this year. You're typically going to see a 30% Tues-Wednesday drop.

 

[josh8]

Not quite. It's in the same ballpark as the other films, only those films dropped closer to 70% on Tuesday, while we only dropped 58%... If anything, it's evening out.

Yes, it was a big drop for a Wednesday compared to other movies.

X3, -20.4%
Pirates3, -17.8%
Indy4, -20.6%
HangoverII, -17%
FF6 -28%

DOFP, -30.5%

My point was that it was pacing nicely and I didn't want it to level out. So unless you have some data, no need to keep trying to imply that I'm wrong.

 

[josh8]

I thought kids were out of school mid June? Unless you're talking about college students.

Both actually. In CA, all students are out by the end of May. As for College, I think semesters and trimesters both end in mid to late may as well.

 

[JP]

Ah, thankfully those brats are still locked up for another 2 weeks here.

 

[Blackout]

Ah, thankfully those brats are still locked up for another 2 weeks here.

They need to be released to help the second weekend tbh

 

[josh8]

Ah, thankfully those brats are still locked up for another 2 weeks here.

When I was younger, I remember not getting out of school until mid-June (which has since changed) and it was torture. Now that I'm older... I'm like "stay away and let the grown-ups enoy the summer!!"

 

[JP]

BOM's forecast. I think they're underestimating Mal, and overestimating X-Men a bit.

Forecast (May 30-June 1)
1. Maleficent - $55 million
2. X-Men - $39 million (-57%)
3. Million Ways - $26 million
4. Godzilla - $13 million (-58%)

 

[josh8]

This weekend is going to be full of surprises, good and bad hah!

I really don't know what to think of Maleficent and Million Ways. Even as someone who kind of likes Jolie, I see no entertainment in this movie. I can see the appeal to certain demographics... but absolutely zero outside of that. As for Million Ways... who wants to actually watch that?? From commercials, I can't even discern a plot. And Seth MacFarlane as a leading man is not really something that seems appealing to me....