Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction - Part 1

[mmaeric]

With Fox spending 225 million on DOFP If you want Apocalypse to be bigger
than DOFP then it needs to make money.

X2 Is the X-Men film that domesticly made the most money after opening
weekend so we need to hope it performs like X2 so It could get close to 230
Million.Getting to 250 Million domesticly or higher Is kind of Impossible at this
moment.maybe it will have smaller drop than past films but opening weekend isn't suggesting a new series record.

DOFP was always going to do well overseas.It's already broken the record of
X-Men's foreign box office.DOFP should have no problem beating the wolverine's 282 Million overseas record high for series.DOFP should be able to say it's highest worldwide film In series beating the 459 million that Last Stand
got In 2006 but a lot of it Is from foreign box office.

Even after more well recirved films-First Class and The wolverine,Good reviews,and all the star power it still can't match domesticly what The last stand did In 2006 or come close to what Winter soldier did domesticly.
WS through this weekend grossed 253 million.DOFP may not even hit 240 Million Domesticly.

It has to make 450 million just so fox breaks even on it assuming deadline is right on 225 million budget.

really, you also have to consider they spend roughly half the budget extra on marketing so 225 million becomes 337.5 million meaning the page would need 675 million to break even on box office alone. BUT this movie has gigantic product placement, where it will probably drag in at least 150millon and probably more. That will cover most of the budget. Then add dvd, BR and digital sales, The TV rights and increases sales on past xmen films and there's no way this money doesn't make absolute bank

 

[Liam_H]

Big openers on Memorial Weekend fall around 60-65% in it 2nd weekend. This franchise tends to be more frontloaded so hopefully it can manage closer to 60% which is a reasonable goal.

 

[Blackout]

Some worldwide figures:

Around-the-World Roundup

At 118 countries, X-Men: Days of Future Past opened to a massive $171.1 million overseas this weekend. According to Fox, it earned more across the same bucket of territories than The Amazing Spider-Man 2 and Captain America: The Winter Soldier.

The movie's biggest market was China, where it earned $37.7 million in its first three days. That's a bit ahead of Captain America, which has grossed over $120 million total there. This gigantic result in China is likely due in part to the inclusion of Chinese superstar Bingbing Fan, and the fact that most of the "future" section of the movie is set in China.

Days of Future Past also had the biggest debut ever for a Fox movie in 11 markets, including South Korea ($13.5 million), Brazil ($8 million), the Philippines ($3.9 million) and India ($3.9 million). Other major markets included U.K. ($14.2 million), France ($10.6 million), Mexico ($10.4 million), Russia ($10.3 million), Australia ($7.7 million) and Germany ($4.7 million).

By next weekend, Days of Future Past will be the highest-grossing X-Men movie ever ahead of The Wolverine ($282 million). With Japan and Spain still on the way, it's hard to imagine Days of Future Past falling short of $400 million total.

 

[Marvin]

I will paraphrase Roger Ebert: It is not what a movie is about, but how it is about it.

Iron Man 3 is actually fine to me. I enjoyed it for what it is. But it is certainly more family friendly and less intense than DOFP. The villains, while they do villainous things, are quite cartoonish and Tony Stark never feels like he is in any danger. We see future characters die in DOFP (even if that destiny is rewritten) and there are a lot of allusions to drug abuse, war, civil unrest, and a generally more thoughtful character arc for Xavier and even Mystique than in most superhero movies. Plus, there is all the language and the level of suspense put in the movie's finale.

Iron Man 3 is a fun romp, and it works very well in that parameter. I am not someone to care about Mandarin twists or the like.

I've rarely seen my partial disinterest in the MCU drama better explained. 'cartoonish and lack of real danger(save for 2 of their films)' Things like Toy Story 1-3 or Spiderman 2 tend to feel heavier/dire/more dangerous. However, there's room for everything, clearly.

Anyways, this isn't the place for that, but I would add that if Xmen really wants to get into that mega money they probably need to start appealing more to the kinds and families like the rest of marvel does. All these swear words and nudity and maturity doesn't really inspire the pixar group the way guy with giant hammer fighting trolls does. I dont' think they have the brand power WB has to get fully mature yet still bring in the entire GA.

Maybe involve some kid xmen next time. Like the IM3 kid lol. The kids in the school are always wasted.

 

[HIA]

excelent news about foreign markets. China is best opening of the year right? at least from superhero movies. Awesome, hopefully it ends with a bit more than Cap.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Yep it's definitely making well over 600mil worldwide.

 

[DACrowe]

I've rarely seen my partial disinterest in the MCU drama better explained. 'cartoonish and lack of real danger(save for 2 of their films)' Things like Toy Story 1-3 or Spiderman 2 tend to feel heavier/dire/more dangerous. However, there's room for everything, clearly.

Anyways, this isn't the place for that, but I would add that if Xmen really wants to get into that mega money they probably need to start appealing more to the kinds and families like the rest of marvel does. All these swear words and nudity and maturity doesn't really inspire the pixar group the way guy with giant hammer fighting trolls does. I dont' think they have the brand power WB has to get fully mature yet still bring in the entire GA.

Maybe involve some kid xmen next time. Like the IM3 kid lol. The kids in the school are always wasted.

I have long accepted since Iron Man 2 that this is the direction Marvel will stay. It is fine and they produce some greatness like the Avengers or to a lesser extent (IMO) CA2. But, yeah I do not think they will tackle as something as intelligent or serious as DOFP.

Then again, while I do think Apocalypse will stand a chance to make more off DOFP (just as how X2 did off of X1), I don't see X-Men ever appealing to the masses like the MCU does, at least in this vision. But I am okay with that too, because frankly I prefer it, at least when Singer or Vaughn are behind the camera. Which gets into another thing...X-Men films really need strong vision if they are going to play that game. Marvel can get by with "television" direction as long as it stays in-tune with a very simply established tone. Right, Thor: The Dark World?

Also, good point about DC's advantage in branding. However, if BVS is another Man of Steel, I could see that changing. Spider-Man was once an unbeatable brand too. But if you release enough mediocrity under it, that changes.

 

[ares834]

Yep it's definitely making well over 600mil worldwide.

That's awesome news.

 

[Marvin]

I have long accepted since Iron Man 2 that this is the direction Marvel will stay. It is fine and they produce some greatness like the Avengers or to a lesser extent (IMO) CA2. But, yeah I do not think they will tackle as something as intelligent or serious as DOFP.

Then again, while I do think Apocalypse will stand a chance to make more off DOFP (just as how X2 did off of X1), I don't see X-Men ever appealing to the masses like the MCU does, at least in this vision. But I am okay with that too, because frankly I prefer it, at least when Singer or Vaughn are behind the camera. Which gets into another thing...X-Men films really need strong vision if they are going to play that game. Marvel can get by with "television" direction as long as it stays in-tune with a very simply established tone. Right, Thor: The Dark World?

Also, good point about DC's advantage in branding. However, if BVS is another Man of Steel, I could see that changing. Spider-Man was once an unbeatable brand too. But if you release enough mediocrity under it, that changes.

I'm sure if Xmen reverted back to MCU right now, it would see a boost in revenue, whatever the loss may be. I'm sure it would also see more colour villains and less social commentary. It would also see some A list cameos.
As long as people do what they do well it seem work out. Xmen has been lacking in that at times.

I think fox has put together a pretty focused team of producers/creators for their stuff. I have faith.

As for Superman, they've already seen enough mediocrity for a generation. We'll see what this new direction brings. Thus far it's seemingly seeing more success than most of these 'successes', and that's coming off of it's 'last stand'.

 

[Snikt]

If Cap 2 can get to $700 million, no reason to think DOFP can't do it either. I still think DOFP will break the franchise record for Domestic return.

 

[laytonc32]

I'm sure if Xmen reverted back to MCU right now, it would see a boost in revenue, whatever the loss may be. I'm sure it would also see more colour villains and less social commentary. It would also see some A list cameos.
As long as people do what they do well it seem work out. Xmen has been lacking in that at times.

I think fox has put together a pretty focused team of producers/creators for their stuff. I have faith.

As for Superman, they've already seen enough mediocrity for a generation. We'll see what this new direction brings. Thus far it's seemingly seeing more success than most of these 'successes', and that's coming off of it's 'last stand'.

that is why I don't want it going to Disney. The social commentary is why X-men was created and taking it out is making it pointless.

 

[DACrowe]

I'm sure if Xmen reverted back to MCU right now, it would see a boost in revenue, whatever the loss may be. I'm sure it would also see more colour villains and less social commentary. It would also see some A list cameos.
As long as people do what they do well it seem work out. Xmen has been lacking in that at times.

I think fox has put together a pretty focused team of producers/creators for their stuff. I have faith.

As for Superman, they've already seen enough mediocrity for a generation. We'll see what this new direction brings. Thus far it's seemingly seeing more success than most of these 'successes', and that's coming off of it's 'last stand'.

It probably would because of the Marvel brand. And it would not look like the Singer movies or even the Vaughn film, which while colorful also had some weighty themes and strong characterization for at least Magneto, Xavier, and (arguably) Mystique.

That is why I am glad that X-Men is separate. I prefer superhero movies that try to do a little more heavy lifting. Albeit, you are correct, unless they are a hugely established brand, there might be a box office ceiling in play in doing so (it certainly doesn't help that the last two heavily watched X-Men movies were X3 and Wolverine 1, even though XFC is excellent and Wolverine 2 ain't shabby).

As for Superman, I am referring more to Batman. I think Man of Steel 2 would be a tough sell after that movie. While creatively, it feels too early for Batman, WB is probably correct in terms of making a business decision. However, if BVS is another MOS in terms of quality? Well, when SM3 came out it was making nearly $1 billion worldwide. By the time we had three Spidey movies of that quality, it is struggling to cross $700 million. Batman is the magic ingredient, but he still needs to deliver a strong movie for franchise vitality down the road, at least from what I suspect.

 

[Harley2004]

I'm sure if Xmen reverted back to MCU right now, it would see a boost in revenue, whatever the loss may be. I'm sure it would also see more colour villains and less social commentary. It would also see some A list cameos.
As long as people do what they do well it seem work out. Xmen has been lacking in that at times.

I think fox has put together a pretty focused team of producers/creators for their stuff. I have faith.

As for Superman, they've already seen enough mediocrity for a generation. We'll see what this new direction brings. Thus far it's seemingly seeing more success than most of these 'successes', and that's coming off of it's 'last stand'.

Probably you cannot underestimate Disney's marketing skills and ability to appeal to mass market. It would also be much more generic and safe, all the bad words and brutal deaths cut out. Regardless of money, thankfully it's where it is.

 

[Bruce Malone]

If Cap 2 can get to $700 million, no reason to think DOFP can't do it either. I still think DOFP will break the franchise record for Domestic return.

I'd like to see that.

Although it probably won't come close to tickets sold compared to TLS.

 

[HIA]

If Cap 2 can get to $700 million, no reason to think DOFP can't do it either. I still think DOFP will break the franchise record for Domestic return.

yeah, I think XMen will beat Cap in foreign market, reaching 500m, taking into account the bigger opening than Cap and Spiderman.
About domestic, it would be great, even if by a 5-10m difference, but Im not confident right now. We'll see next weekend

 

[Tymminator]

It had a bigger opening on the foreign market because it opened to more places at once, Cap and Spidey were more staggered around the globe.

The next few weeks will be interesting.

 

[Tony Stark]

I don't think this will pass X-men the last stand domestically. It will easily pass it in WW box office.

 

[Snikt]

Just thinking...the movie COULD be underestimated for Sunday. It does happen. So it's possible DOFP could earn $90 to nearly $92 million for the 3-day weekend.

I never really understood how they calculate Sunday when the day hasn't even finished yet.

 

[Liam_H]

The estimated Sunday drop is the same as FF6 last year. So its pretty plausible. It could go up or drop but I don't think by a huge amount.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Yep it's definitely making well over 600mil worldwide.

Great overseas, a bit underwhelming domestically. This seems to be the calling card of the vast majority of these films now. Only special films like the Hunger Games, Frozen, Skyfall, The Avengers, IM3, etc. have eclipsed $300m recently.

DoFP is going to need to make the bulk of its international money the next couple of weeks before the World Cup hits. That is probably going to be a bigger problem internationally then competition. The only thing really immune to a big summer event is a family film.

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

Great overseas, a bit underwhelming domestically. This seems to be the calling card of the vast majority of these films now. Only special films like the Hunger Games, Frozen, Skyfall, The Avengers, IM3, etc. have eclipsed $300m recently.

DoFP is going to need to make the bulk of its international money the next couple of weeks before the World Cup hits. That is probably going to be a bigger problem internationally then competition. The only thing really immune to a big summer event is a family film.

Everybody knew this summer had a great chance of being so-so domestically. The expanded overseas market is really helping the films out. I forgot about the World Cup, yep that's going to be a problem.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

Everybody knew this summer had a great chance of being so-so domestically. The expanded overseas market is really helping the films out. I forgot about the World Cup, yep that's going to be a problem.

I certainly didn't forget Sundance. I am hyped.

With DoFP numbers, I now wonder who will be the domestic champ this summer, the film that will make to $300m. "How To Train Your Dragon 2" perhaps? Or will we have to wait all the way to holiday season and "Mockingjay"?

 

[I SEE SPIDEY]

I certainly didn't forget Sundance. I am hyped.

I didn't know you liked Soccer or Football as everyone but people in the states call it.

With DoFP numbers, I now wonder who will be the domestic champ this summer, the film that will make to $300m. "How To Train Your Dragon 2" perhaps? Or will we have to wait all the way to holiday season and "Mockingjay"?

Maybe Transformers?

 

[Tymminator]

I also think Trans4mers and HTTYD2 are good picks for 300M.

 

[DarthSkywalker]

I didn't know you liked Soccer or Football as everyone but people in the states call it.

I ave been a fanc since I was a kid. The 1994 World Cup and Manchester United highlights on Fox Sports World had a big impact on me. My sig for the last year was about United. I had to change it after this horrible season ended.

Maybe Transformers?

Possible, but I wonder what the "soft reboot" status will do for the film domestically. It is going to be a monster WW no matter what, but it might take a bit of a hit domestically.

With DoFP, next weekend is going to be very interesting domestically. Next weekend should have two possible breakouts, with very different demos, both of which could effect DoFP.