Days of Future Past 'Days Of Future Past' BOX-OFFICE worldwide prediction

[HIA]

Promotion for the film wasn't really there. Fox searchlight promoted the return of 24 more than dofp, people weren't aware a new x-men movie was coming out unless they saw TAS2, I'm only now seeing the posters on buses, billboards and stops.

that sounds better. Fox still has two weeks, so lets hope they start promoting on LA.... and any other US state for the matter.
In any case, I hope Dofp exceeds expectations and does a bit more than 125m on OW.

 

[psylockolussus]

Don't forget that Disney live action films can cause surprises, Alice in Wonderland made over a billion at the box office despite average reviews.

They also had John Carter, Prince of Persia and the Lone Ranger.

I'm not saying Malificent would underperform but I don't see it performing so great that it will surprise the naysayers.

 

[Tymminator]

The word of mouth is really good on twitter so far, this movie is shaping up to be a solid hit.

 

[TeeKay]

They also had John Carter, Prince of Persia and the Lone Ranger.

I'm not saying Malificent would underperform but I don't see it performing so great that it will surprise the naysayers.

Prince of Persia didn't flop, it was a moderate success. Only John Carter and LR flopped, but most Disney live action films have been successful thus far. I wouldn't under-estimate Malificent.

 

[BoredGuy]

So apparently at some point I voted for $700 million
don't know why, that seems awfully high
but if this really is as good as some are saying, maybe it'll tickle the underside of 700...

 

[Liam_H]

Prince of Persia didn't flop, it was a moderate success. Only John Carter and LR flopped, but most Disney live action films have been successful thus far. I wouldn't under-estimate Malificent.

It didn't flop but it wasn't moderate success either, more like underperformed. Basing this on budget so.

 

[Mr.M]

I am going with:

325 Dom
500 OS
825 WW

 

[Joeyjojo72]

250 plus domestic only happens if this film is as great as most of us hope it is. And that the GA and critics agree with us. "Pretty good" won't cut it. Especially now that most of the GA - in the last 6 years or so - are perfectly aware of what a great CB/SH movie looks like. (And no, FC isnt on that tier sorry). Fun action and a "kitchen sink" of characters wont be enough. The recent bad press for Singer, fair or not, accurate or not, only makes the task of achieving a blockbuster that much more difficult. The bar is as high as it has ever been.

 

[Mr.M]

250 Dom is ASM2 level flop in my eyes. This has every possibility to be the number one film this year besides Hobbit. We'll see if Transformers still retains its following.

 

[JP]

250 Dom is ASM2 level flop in my eyes.

Good thing your eyes don't count.

 

[Mr.M]

Explain how a movie tracking at 125 doing a 2.0 multiplier is a good thing? I get that it's a 4 day weekend, but even still, that's hardly great. So clearly my eyes are gauging more accurately than the latter couple of posters.

 

[josh8]

Explain how a movie tracking at 125 doing a 2.0 multiplier is a good thing? I get that it's a 4 day weekend, but even still, that's hardly great. So clearly my eyes are gauging more accurately than the latter couple of posters.

You're not doing yourself any favors when you argue with inaccurate info... gross-to-opening multipliers are always calculated on the 3-day take, which according to that projection will be closer to $100M. That would make a $250M finish result in a multiplier closer to 2.5, which is standard for a summer blockbuster. I'm hoping for more just like everyone else, but facts first!

 

[Mr.M]

You're not doing yourself any favors when you argue with inaccurate info... gross-to-opening multipliers are always calculated on the 3-day take, which according to that projection will be closer to $100M. That would make a $250M finish result in a multiplier closer to 2.5, which is standard for a summer blockbuster. I'm hoping for more just like everyone else, but facts first!

Tracking estimates also tend to low ball summer blockbusters, so it probably ends up more than 100 million the first three days. Then you account for what other films in the genre were able to do. See multipliers for Spidey, Iron Man, TDK sequels, and Avengers movies; all well above or close to 3.0. That's what Fox needs to target for a film like this. It's an unprecedented concept in the genre and needs to perform accordingly. It needs to do way more than a 2.5 multiplier for this to be a success. 250 dom would be worse than Last Stand numbers.

 

[Moridin]

Tracking estimates also tend to low ball summer blockbusters, so it probably ends up more than 100 million the first three days. Then you account for what other films in the genre were able to do. See multipliers for Spidey, Iron Man, TDK sequels, and Avengers movies; all well above or close to 3.0. That's what Fox needs to target for a film like this. It's an unprecedented concept in the genre and needs to perform accordingly. It needs to do way more than a 2.5 multiplier for this to be a success. 250 dom would be worse than Last Stand numbers.

No. $250m would be great. You're being really irrational there, & that line of thinking will only bring you disappointment.

 

[Joeyjojo72]

Lol at $250m being a flop. Now couple that with $350m or less overseas and yeah that would be a disappointment. But I think Fox would take $250m.

Comparing it to the Last Stand makes no sense for obvious reasons. The landscape overseas is completely different now.

If the movie is good with good wom im thinking $250 dom and $450 intl is probably doable.

 

[Mikelus]

Tracking estimates also tend to low ball summer blockbusters, so it probably ends up more than 100 million the first three days. Then you account for what other films in the genre were able to do. See multipliers for Spidey, Iron Man, TDK sequels, and Avengers movies; all well above or close to 3.0. That's what Fox needs to target for a film like this. It's an unprecedented concept in the genre and needs to perform accordingly. It needs to do way more than a 2.5 multiplier for this to be a success. 250 dom would be worse than Last Stand numbers.

Unfortunately, X-Men movies have never been that huge at the BO:

X-Men: $157,299,717

X-Men United: $214,949,694

The Last Stand: $234,362,462

First Class: $146,408,305

If DOFP makes 250 dom, it should be considered a success, Thor: The Dark World only made $206,362,140 ($644,783,140 Worldwide). DOFP should make something similar or around 700 (even more), we'll see.

 

[Iceman]

Lol at $250m being a flop. Now couple that with $350m or less overseas and yeah that would be a disappointment. But I think Fox would take $250m.

Comparing it to the Last Stand makes no sense for obvious reasons. The landscape overseas is completely different now.

If the movie is good with good wom im thinking $250 dom and $450 intl is probably doable.

Yeah, I think it can get to both of those.

 

[Iceman]

Unfortunately, X-Men movies have never been that huge at the BO:

X-Men: $157,299,717

X-Men United: $214,949,694

The Last Stand: $234,362,462

First Class: $146,408,305

If DOFP makes 250 dom, it should be considered a success, Thor: The Dark World only made $206,362,140 ($644,783,140 Worldwide). DOFP should make something similar or around 700 (even more), we'll see.

I agree that there's nothing wrong with $250m domestic even if I am hopeful for more. X2 was the last core well received film and was a sequel to a good but severely underbudgeted opening film. They couldn't go all out like they seem to be doing with DOFP as most studios were still nervous about comic films. Since then we've had X3 get mixed reception, a solo film and a spinoff with hardly any main characters. I can't imagine how other team films would do without their big stars...JL without Superman, Batman & Wonder Woman? I think this will be the 1st real test of how big the X-men franchise can be in the modern era, especially overseas with all the recent explosive growth.

 

[Marvin]

They should claim the april spot for 2016.

 

[psylockolussus]

I agree that there's nothing wrong with $250m domestic even if I am hopeful for more. X2 was the last core well received film and was a sequel to a good but severely underbudgeted opening film. They couldn't go all out like they seem to be doing with DOFP as most studios were still nervous about comic films. Since then we've had X3 get mixed reception, a solo film and a spinoff with hardly any main characters. I can't imagine how other team films would do without their big stars...JL without Superman, Batman & Wonder Woman? I think this will be the 1st real test of how big the X-men franchise can be in the modern era, especially overseas with all the recent explosive growth.

Yeah but I'm still amazed how big the gap is between the hype for DOFP and the hype for First Class/The Wolverine.

 

[Marvin]

Yeah but I'm still amazed how big the gap is between the hype for DOFP and the hype for First Class/The Wolverine.

I personally figured there would be a large gap.

The last time an Xmen film come off of a 'string of success' and good will was X3 and that film enjoyed a pretty large boost. Had it only been of better quality it probably would have been even bigger.

First Class was coming off of maybe the worst string of things and what's more is that it was being sold as a 'reboot' with an somewhat unknown and lesser cast to boot. No more Halle and No Hugh Jackman mainstay.
(I was surprised they didn't just blow his cameo in the marketing to this end).

Wolverine movies seemingly only make so much. I think much of the audience see's them as Xmen light features in context.

DOFP has so much more going for it in all of those regards. The string thing, the cast, more star relevant star power than most films let alone X films. And this past meets future thing is a great tag line. If you were to do that right now with avengers; Seeing a dire future for one would be crazy, then seeing the past(well I guess we've already seen that), then seeing them meet...

Safe to say I personally saw a huge gap coming.

 

[mmaeric]

Basically the way movies work, is they spend about half the budget on marketing.

Xmen days has a budget of 250 million so that's an additional $125 million in marketing so $375 million

Movies make about half of the total box office receipts worldwide, so a worldwide total of 750 million should break them even if the 250milkiok budget holds correct

Now besides box office intake you will have possible product placement, that made man of steel a clear 200millon almost so that could cover most the budget if they do

They also have the ability to sell TV rights which is huge and they profit more from that than dvd sells

Than you have dvd/dogital/blue ray sells

Plus you have spikes on sells of other xmen DVDs and merchandise

This movie even if it makes 600 million worldwide will still turn a profit and if they are doing major product placement, it will turn a huge profit

 

[Iceman]

They should claim the april spot for 2016.

Yes they should. As long as one of Cap 3 and BVS doesn't move there. Need to be far away from those.

I personally figured there would be a large gap.

The last time an Xmen film come off of a 'string of success' and good will was X3 and that film enjoyed a pretty large boost. Had it only been of better quality it probably would have been even bigger.

First Class was coming off of maybe the worst string of things and what's more is that it was being sold as a 'reboot' with an somewhat unknown and lesser cast to boot. No more Halle and No Hugh Jackman mainstay.
(I was surprised they didn't just blow his cameo in the marketing to this end).

Wolverine movies seemingly only make so much. I think much of the audience see's them as Xmen light features in context.

DOFP has so much more going for it in all of those regards. The string thing, the cast, more star relevant star power than most films let alone X films. And this past meets future thing is a great tag line. If you were to do that right now with avengers; Seeing a dire future for one would be crazy, then seeing the past(well I guess we've already seen that), then seeing them meet...

Safe to say I personally saw a huge gap coming.

Exactly. If this doesn't do well it is a marker that the X-franchise isn't that big. This time it doesn't look like there's any holding back and all those other things you mention are for once in its favour at the same time. Will be quite disappointed if it makes less than $250m domestic and $700m worldwide.

 

[Tymminator]

Yes they should. As long as one of Cap 3 and BVS doesn't move there. Need to be far away from those.

Exactly. If this doesn't do well it is a marker that the X-franchise isn't that big. This time it doesn't look like there's any holding back and all those other things you mention are for once in its favour at the same time. Will be quite disappointed if it makes less than $250m domestic and $700m worldwide.

True.

 

[ironman_rick]

Reading all the reviews.....this movie could make $300M Domestic.