Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[Wildcard]

I was hoping it'd adjust up to $85 million. So glad that it did!

 

[Silver Surfer]

It's all about the drop next week, anything under a 55% drop is a massive win.

 

[InCali]

I hope this has a really strong second weekend. Arrival looks really good, and I plan on catching that this weekend, but I think Strange still comes in no. 1, and hopefully we might see a low 50% drop as apposed to the standard -60% for this genre.

Strange is probably the best origin film Marvel's done since the first Iron Man. A slight caveat in that I don't really consider GOTG an "origin film", I'm sticking to the more formulaic Superhero film, i.e. guy without powers, has accident gains powers, learns great responsibility, bla, bla, bla, etc.

Remember that Friday is a holiday. I think 50% or less is on the table. I just got back and think WOM is going to be very, very strong.

 

[Stark Bauer]

i understand why venom is popular but carnage was THAT popular? like even more so than the x-men?

He was at one point. But overall I think X Men as a team were more popular, only second to Spider Man

Congrats to Marvel Studios for the 85 M Opening! Hope they can do as others said and get a 50-55% drop or better

 

[SomeOldGuy]

It's all about the drop next week, anything under a 55% drop is a massive win.

I'd say chances are very good since Friday is a holiday (Veterans Day).

ETA: ah, I see Cali beat me to it!

 

[InCali]

I'd say chances are very good since Friday is a holiday (Veterans Day).

ETA: ah, I see Cali beat me to it!

Please accept your humble student's most sincere apologies oh Ancient One.....

 

[Iceman]

$40m plus would be very nice.

 

[Tony Stark]

Remember that Friday is a holiday. I think 50% or less is on the table. I just got back and think WOM is going to be very, very strong.

Yep, I forgot it was veteran's day, most schools are out that day.

That will really help with fantastic beasts coming out the week after, the first two weekends will be very important for total box office.

 

[kedrell]

Thor2 made $10.4m on it's first Monday but that was because it was also Veterans Day in 2013. It plummeted to half of that the very next day and ended the first week with $108.5m. DS won't make nearly that much today since it's not Veterans Day(next Friday is instead) but I'm confident after next weekend it'll have pulled ahead of T:TDW. T:TDW's 2nd weekend was $36m and DS should be able to best that.

 

[LoganGambit87]

good box office results but i am sorry i think they are lying about the budget what i saw on the big screen was way higher than 165 million lol

 

[rayc1971]

my prediction:
domestic: 210m
overseas: 500m
total: 710m

the special effects and ben ***'s popularity will give the movie good legs

those numbers are on the money!

 

[Blitzkrieg]

The 2nd weekend BO will be somewhere between 37.4-38.6 million.

 

[Stark Bauer]

^ I agree with the above. At most 40 million.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

^ I agree with the above. At most 40 million.

I'm going off on previous MCU movies' track records.....

T:TDW's 2nd weekend drop was 58.8%

Ant-Man's 2nd weekend drop was 57.8%

CA:TWS's 2nd weekend drop was 56.6%

So I expect similar drops for Doctor Strange in it's 2nd weekend.

 

[InCali]

I'm going off on previous MCU movies' track records.....

T:TDW's 2nd weekend drop was 58.8%

Ant-Man's 2nd weekend drop was 57.8%

CA:TWS's 2nd weekend drop was 56.6%

So I expect similar drops for Doctor Strange in it's 2nd weekend.

Maybe, but Thor's 1st weekend was a holiday weekend (which DS essentially matched) and the 2nd weekend for DS is a holiday weekend. Add to that the better reviews and WOM.....I see a lesser drop for DS.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Maybe, but Thor's 1st weekend was a holiday weekend (which DS essentially matched) and the 2nd weekend for DS is a holiday weekend. Add to that the better reviews and WOM.....I see a lesser drop for DS.

If you mean the Veteran's day next weekend, I think it'll favor Hacksaw Ridge and Arrival way more than DS. But fair enough, it could still help DS to bring in some extra cash.

 

[See Cap Run]

I'm going off on previous MCU movies' track records.....

T:TDW's 2nd weekend drop was 58.8%

Ant-Man's 2nd weekend drop was 57.8%

CA:TWS's 2nd weekend drop was 56.6%

So I expect similar drops for Doctor Strange in it's 2nd weekend.

Just a few minor corrections according to BOM figures: T:TDW 2nd wknd drop was 57.3%

Ant Man's was 56.5%

 

[Blitzkrieg]

Just a few minor corrections according to BOM figures: T:TDW 2nd wknd drop was 57.3%

Ant Man's was 56.5%

It's cool bro. I rounded off the OW of T:TDW to 86 million and also the same with Ant-Man's OW and 2nd weekend.

 

[See Cap Run]

It's cool bro. I rounded off the OW of T:TDW to 86 million and also the same with Ant-Man's OW and 2nd weekend.

Only now, at the end do I understand.

 

[JKKS085]

I'm going off on previous MCU movies' track records.....

T:TDW's 2nd weekend drop was 58.8%

Ant-Man's 2nd weekend drop was 57.8%

CA:TWS's 2nd weekend drop was 56.6%

So I expect similar drops for Doctor Strange in it's 2nd weekend.

Ant-Man is a heart of the summer release with over inflated week days that usually lead to stronger week end drop.
Given the time of release Thor The Dark World is really the only relevant comparison and even in that case, TTDW had its opening week end numbers inflated by Veteran's day falling on its first Monday.
Now Strange is arguably a better received movie, Veteran's day falling on Friday, with kids out of school is only going to improve its prospects and it is facing virtually no new competition (while TTDW just narrowly beat the Best Man sequel on its second week end). Without any insight into week day numbers I think a sub 55% drop is still a distinct possibility at this point. I wouldn't rule out 40M just yet (which would be around a 53% drop).

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I agree that only T:TDW is the the apt comparisons here.

Trolls and Hacksaw Ridge will hold really well while the new releases, Arrival and Almost Christmas will open to moderate numbers and wouldn't affect DS that much. I wouldn't really say 40 million is out of the question but it will be very tough, but doable.

 

[Raiden]

He was at one point. But overall I think X Men as a team were more popular, only second to Spider Man

Congrats to Marvel Studios for the 85 M Opening! Hope they can do as others said and get a 50-55% drop or better

Yeah, Marvel's top 2 properties were actually Spider-Man first, then X-Men second. Avengers weren't that popular and only due to the enormous success of the MCU that the top Avengers members like Capt. America, Iron Man, and Thor are household names. And it is also why they were able to acquire their movie rights back relatively quickly since studios like Paramount didn't think they were that valuable.

 

[MadVillainy]

Schools are out today in America too. Maybe kids will go see it more today as well

 

[Stark Bauer]

From Deadline:

"Marvel’s Doctor Strange continued to boost the overseas fall box office with a $118.9M 2nd frame. That was a slight bump from the Sunday estimate of $118.7M and levitates the magic show to a $240.7M offshore cume. With domestic included, there was $325.5M in the global bag of tricks through the frame. The Benedict Cumberbatch-starrer is holding above its main comps when considering like-for-like markets, boding well for the coming weeks as it adds dimensions before Fantastic Beasts And Where To Find Them apparates globally beginning November 16."

I hope that Doctor Strange keeps going on strong until December when Rogue One hits.

 

[Typhoon22]

A real shame in a way. If it wasn't for November + competition (a film opening 2nd with almost 50m) Doctor Strange would've most likely hit 100m+ easily and become the 2nd or 3rd best OW for a solo Marvel film. Bigger than GOTG, Iron Man 1, TWS etc. All Benedicts fault . They would've released it in Summer but moved it to November to accomodate Benedicts schedule.

Wow Marvel really found their jackpot after Iron Man.