Dr Strange box office prediction thread

[Spiderdevil]

I say another 15 mil Domestic and 20 mil Overseas, though it also is yet to release in Japan right? So maybe another 35 odd mil from there

It might just touch 700 Mil WW

 

[Blitzkrieg]

https://twitter.com/BoxOffice/status/805440475704467456?ref_src=twsrc%5Etfw

Box Office
@BoxOffice

DOCTOR STRANGE makes an estimated $6.48M weekend, down 52.7%, for $215.30M total through five weekends. #DoctorStrange

 

[Blitzkrieg]

I definitely underestimated Mister Doctor's late BO run. It will easily cross 225 million now.

 

[Ozbridge]

As DS finalizes its BO numbers I think it's time to revisit my predictions.

UK (prediction after OW):

Ok maybe I can wait for BFI's 2nd weekend report on Sunday. Anyway Ant-Man get 4X multiplier, CW got 2.5 and AoU get 2.8 so I think DS will get 2.5 to 3.5 for 28-40M.

Number as of last Monday was 27.4M after a 566k weekend so it'll end up a bit under 30M, so will fall into the lower end of my prediction (though my prediction was too wide).

China (prediction after 1st Saturday) and South Korea (after 2nd Saturday):

Ant-Man number in China (¥M): 81/ 108/ 83.5/ 272.5 (F/ S/ S/ OW), Fri-Sat bump was 33%, Sat-Sun drop was -22.7%

DS number: 85/121 (F/S), if Sat-Sun drop is -22.7% like Ant-Man then tomorrow number will be 93.6, enough for OW to be ¥300M ($44.4M)

Ant-Man's multiplier is 2.46. If DS also has this multiplier (with 300M OW) then total number will be ¥738M (about $109M).

In South Korea if DS has Ant-Man multiplier (and their first Fri-to-Fri drop are both 43%, so it's reasonable to assume it will have the same multiplier) then total number will be $38M.

DS's OW in China was ¥300M and total is ¥751.3M (it's closed there), so about 111M. My OW prediction is dead on and total is really close.

In SK DS's number today is 40.4M and this weekend it made 130k, so my prediction is only about 7% off.

Domestic (6 days prior release):

I'm thinking 80M/200M-220M. OW may make more but overall 200-220M.

Quite close. Off by about 6% for both.

And worldwide (1 day after WW OD and 9 days prior domestic release):

After seeing the movie I'll be surprised if it makes more than Ant Man number.

Ok this is rather embarrassing, but in my defense it was made quite far from the release date.

Thursday preview (I wrote this on Friday):

Any number for yesterday preview yet? I'm thinking 13-15M.

Really, what the heck was I thinking???

Anyway my prediction in 3 biggest OS markets (after 1st or 2nd weekend) is quite accurate, so is my prediction in domestic market (about 1 week before release). Though the predicted WW number is just WAAAY off.

 

[iEquinox]

With that 6.5M weekend it's on course for 232M domestically.

The overseas numbers are very similar to the domestic numbers this week (both are about 10M). If it has the same legs overseas as domestically it will end up with about 670M before opening in Japan.

In Japan I expect it to make about 10M. Right now it looks like it'll end up with about 680M WW. TDW and TWS made 6-7M in total in Japan, Ant-Man and GotG made just under 10M, while most of the huge MCU movies like CW, AoU and Iron Man 3 made about 25M.

So unless DS ends up being bigger than all of those movies in Japan it's not going to reach 700M WW.

680M worldwide is a very good final number. And domestically it's going to end up right in the middle between TWS and TDW.

 

[Wildcard]

Looks like I was wrong with my higher up prediction of $800 million WW but it should hopefully have enough gas in the tank to get close to $700 million, even if it doesn't totally cross it.

 

[JB33]

With that 6.5M weekend it's on course for 232M domestically.

The overseas numbers are very similar to the domestic numbers this week (both are about 10M). If it has the same legs overseas as domestically it will end up with about 670M before opening in Japan.

In Japan I expect it to make about 10M. Right now it looks like it'll end up with about 680M WW. TDW and TWS made 6-7M in total in Japan, Ant-Man and GotG made just under 10M, while most of the huge MCU movies like CW, AoU and Iron Man 3 made about 25M.

So unless DS ends up being bigger than all of those movies in Japan it's not going to reach 700M WW.

680M worldwide is a very good final number. And domestically it's going to end up right in the middle between TWS and TDW.

Absolutely. I'm thrilled with Doctor Strange's performance at the box office!

 

[NHawk19]

With that 6.5M weekend it's on course for 232M domestically.

The overseas numbers are very similar to the domestic numbers this week (both are about 10M). If it has the same legs overseas as domestically it will end up with about 670M before opening in Japan.

In Japan I expect it to make about 10M. Right now it looks like it'll end up with about 680M WW. TDW and TWS made 6-7M in total in Japan, Ant-Man and GotG made just under 10M, while most of the huge MCU movies like CW, AoU and Iron Man 3 made about 25M.

So unless DS ends up being bigger than all of those movies in Japan it's not going to reach 700M WW.

680M worldwide is a very good final number. And domestically it's going to end up right in the middle between TWS and TDW.

Using SS as a guide (It's been out for 14 weeks now), Dr Strange could make as much as 23 million in the coming 9 weeks. That would put Domestic at 238 (it's estimated 215 now). It is facing star wars in 3 weeks though. Internationally it's already within 1 million of SS. Say it goes another 10 in Japan. That's 667. I'd say 680 is a slightly optimistic but not unreasonable ending number.

 

[iEquinox]

Using SS as a guide (It's been out for 14 weeks now), Dr Strange could make as much as 23 million in the coming 9 weeks. That would put Domestic at 238 (it's estimated 215 now). It is facing star wars in 3 weeks though. Internationally it's already within 1 million of SS. Say it goes another 10 in Japan. That's 667. I'd say 680 is a slightly optimistic but not unreasonable ending number.

I think you forgot to include all foreign markets outside of Japan.

I also think TDW is a better comparison. SS made 325M total, so even with weaker legs it still made more after its 5th weekend than TDW. TWS made 22M after the 5th weekend and that has been outpacing DS so far, so I think it's safe to assume it won't make more than 22M from here.

Also, if it makes 23M domestically and 10M in Japan, it would already end up with 667M. But there's still all other overseas markets(it looks like you forgot to include those) and it should easily make over 13M there to reach more than 680M using your predictions.

But I don't think it'll get 23M more domestically, I'd say 17-18M is more realistic (17.5 is 35% more than TDW made after the 5th weekend, DS made 35% more than TDW in the 5th weekend). Add another 10M for Japan and about 17M in the remaining foreign markets and you end up with 680M.

 

[Ozbridge]

But there's still all other overseas markets(it looks like you forgot to include those) and it should easily make over 13M there to reach more than 680M using your predictions.

You think it can easily make 13M in the other OS markets in the rest of its run? But it only made 4M last weekend (2-4 Dec), so how can it easily make more than 3X of its last weekend? I think 2X is already very good.

 

[iEquinox]

You think it can easily make 13M in the other OS markets in the rest of its run? But it only made 4M last weekend (2-4 Dec), so how can it easily make more than 3X of its last weekend? I think 2X is already very good.

From Monday-Sunday it made just under 10M domestically with a 6.7M weekend, while making about 9M OS with a weekend of just 4M. If you scale down the weekdays based on the domestic ratio of weekend/weekdays, it would have made just 6M OS over the last week. So it seems to make a lot more of its gross during the weekdays OS compared to domestically.

I based my prediction on how it did over the entire week, not just weekends since it seems to be making a lot of money during the weekdays OS, and it looks like just comparing weekends would not take the bigger weekdays into account.

 

[Ozbridge]

From Monday-Sunday it made just under 10M domestically with a 6.7M weekend, while making about 9M OS with a weekend of just 4M. If you scale down the weekdays based on the domestic ratio of weekend/weekdays, it would have made just 6M OS over the last week. So it seems to make a lot more of its gross during the weekdays OS compared to domestically.

The bigger OS weekdays (28 Nov to 1 Dec) is because of China mostly. China gross as of 27 Nov was 107.8M but when it ended its run there on 1 Dec its total gross was ¥751.3M (about 111M), so the 5M OS weekday (from 9M week and 4M weekend) already includes 3.2M from China. If we exclude it then we have 1.8M weekday OS (without China) and 4.0M weekend (also without China). So OS weekend gross is 2.2X the weekday gross, which is about the same as the domestic ratio (6.7/3.1).

 

[NHawk19]

I think you forgot to include all foreign markets outside of Japan.

I also think TDW is a better comparison. SS made 325M total, so even with weaker legs it still made more after its 5th weekend than TDW. TWS made 22M after the 5th weekend and that has been outpacing DS so far, so I think it's safe to assume it won't make more than 22M from here.

Also, if it makes 23M domestically and 10M in Japan, it would already end up with 667M. But there's still all other overseas markets(it looks like you forgot to include those) and it should easily make over 13M there to reach more than 680M using your predictions.

But I don't think it'll get 23M more domestically, I'd say 17-18M is more realistic (17.5 is 35% more than TDW made after the 5th weekend, DS made 35% more than TDW in the 5th weekend). Add another 10M for Japan and about 17M in the remaining foreign markets and you end up with 680M.

Actually I did the math the same way to get the 667. Then assumed your number was arrived at using foreign number to make up the difference. I just thought 23 might be a little optimistic as would the 17-18. I didn't and still don't think 680 outside the realm of possibilities just thought the real number might be slightly under that.

 

[iEquinox]

The bigger OS weekdays (28 Nov to 1 Dec) is because of China mostly. China gross as of 27 Nov was 107.8M but when it ended its run there on 1 Dec its total gross was ¥751.3M (about 111M), so the 5M OS weekday (from 9M week and 4M weekend) already includes 3.2M from China. If we exclude it then we have 1.8M weekday OS (without China) and 4.0M weekend (also without China). So OS weekend gross is 2.2X the weekday gross, which is about the same as the domestic ratio (6.7/3.1).

Ah, I wasn't aware that it's no longer in theaters in China. In that case it definitely shouldn't be able to get 17M more OS. I think about 9M extra overseas and 17M domestically is more realistic, for a total of 232M domestically and 673 worldwide (after Japan).

Actually I did the math the same way to get the 667. Then assumed your number was arrived at using foreign number to make up the difference. I just thought 23 might be a little optimistic as would the 17-18. I didn't and still don't think 680 outside the realm of possibilities just thought the real number might be slightly under that.

Why do you think 17-18M domestically is too optimistic? If it has the TDW's legs from this point it would get 17.5M. DS might have Rogue One to compete with, but TDW had The Hobbit: DoS 1 week earlier in its release. While Rogue one will undoubtedly make more than The Hobbit, it will come later and that should balance it out a bit. DS has also shown better legs than TDW which should help it make up for the difference in competition too. How much do you think it will end with domestically?

 

[NHawk19]

Ah, I wasn't aware that it's no longer in theaters in China. In that case it definitely shouldn't be able to get 17M more OS. I think about 9M extra overseas and 17M domestically is more realistic, for a total of 232M domestically and 673 worldwide (after Japan).



Why do you think 17-18M domestically is too optimistic? If it has the TDW's legs from this point it would get 17.5M. DS might have Rogue One to compete with, but TDW had The Hobbit: DoS 1 week earlier in its release. While Rogue one will undoubtedly make more than The Hobbit, it will come later and that should balance it out a bit. DS has also shown better legs than TDW which should help it make up for the difference in competition too. How much do you think it will end with domestically?

It's not just Rogue one. It's the draw from Fantastic Beasts as well. I think 16M might be where it ends up. While I don't want to diminish the craze for The Hobbit. You don't see.the pop culture aspect of Hobbit anywhere near Star Wars Level. Plus it's the first stand alone Star Wars film, and it has Darth Vader. I see Rogue One as an event not as huge of an event as TFA but an event none the less. I think it's going to cut into DrS because I see the GA wanting to see that and be a part of it.

 

[rayc1971]

looking like 230mill domestic a lock dont think it will hit 700mill ww but close enough

 

[InCali]

looking like 230mill domestic a lock dont think it will hit 700mill ww but close enough

It's amazing to me how accurate people on the Hype are (in general) when it comes to BO predictions.

 

[marcvader]

Could be close to 650mil by Monday.

 

[MessiahDecoy123]

Could be close to 650mil by Monday.

Bye, Thor 2.

 

[iEquinox]

It's not just Rogue one. It's the draw from Fantastic Beasts as well. I think 16M might be where it ends up. While I don't want to diminish the craze for The Hobbit. You don't see.the pop culture aspect of Hobbit anywhere near Star Wars Level. Plus it's the first stand alone Star Wars film, and it has Darth Vader. I see Rogue One as an event not as huge of an event as TFA but an event none the less. I think it's going to cut into DrS because I see the GA wanting to see that and be a part of it.

TDW had The Hunger Games: Catching fire instead of Fantastic Beasts, and the Hunger Games was much bigger (The opening weekend was over twice as big). So I don't think FB is going to hurt DS more than THG hurt TDW. I agree that Rogue One is going to be much bigger than The Hobbit, but it will be released a week later into DS' run, which will help compensate for that difference.

And btw, TDW had more theaters left than DS does right now (3074 vs 2935), but TDW fell to 2264 theaters on week 6(DS will have 2763, week 6 starts on Friday), TDW fell to 1116 on week 7, and had only 319 theaters left by day 48(5 days into week 7). Rogue One will open on week 7(day 43) for DS. Even if DS loses that many theaters that shouldn't really cause it to lose too much ground to TDW. DS should pull away from TDW next week, but TDW will start catching up again once Rogue One hits. We'll have to wait and see how many theaters DS will lose once Rogue One opens.

But 16M is only 1M below my prediction, which isn't really a significant difference anyway
It looks like we pretty much agree on where it will end up, and that Rogue One will hurt DS once it opens.

 

[JKKS085]

1.2M Friday, projected 4.5M we down 33% from last week.
Should pass 220M dom over the week end and TTDW 644M ww final tally as well.
Wether or not it'll have enough steam to go past XMDOFP (233M dom) remains to be seen but based on TTDW's numbers it does have a slim chance (I acknowledge that the release of Rogue One might change the pace at which DS is actually outperforming TTDW).

In any case this has been an excellent run, especially in this very crowded and competitive landscape. Strange is going to end up being Marvel Studios' most successful solo origin movie. If it manages to outgross MOS (668M ww) it will be the fourth most successful solo origin movie in the genre behind Spider-Man, Deadpool and The Amazing Spider-Man. And frankly the simple thought that a Doctor Strange movie actually gets a chance to outgross a Superman movie speaks volume about the level of success reached by Marvel, even with their more obscure properties.

 

[metaphysician]

Marvel doesn't have D-listers anymore. They just have A-listers you haven't been introduced to yet.

 

[Blitzkrieg]

4.6 million this weekend, 222 million domestic and 645 million WW right now.

Mister Doctor has been such a force at the BO. 12 million more from domestic markets and 9 million from OS markets gives DS a WW total of 666 million.

 

[marcvader]

Is the $645 including the updated overseas #'s?

 

[Flint Marko]

Marvel doesn't have D-listers anymore. They just have A-listers you haven't been introduced to yet.

Fantastic quote. Tempted to put it in my sig.